# Is the stock market slide over?



## oldmontana (May 13, 2020)

I say NO...not when the covid-19 is going to hang on for who knows how long, but experts say at lest 6 months.

The more I read almost every industry is effected.  A few are doing good but most are going to see their earnings go down.

What do you think?


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## Gardenlover (May 13, 2020)

I'm no expert, but I think we'll see another, long term, crash within the next six months.


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## Aunt Bea (May 13, 2020)

I think that we will see another dip in the markets when the reality hits that all of the current stimulus money in circulation has had little or no impact on getting business up and running.

IMO the money spent so far has been for life support of individuals and businesses but will have little impact on earnings or profits needed to fuel growth.

I also believe that many working folks have been or will be selling 401K assets and will also end up doing a pause on future 401K contributions until they get their personal finances in order.

We'll see!


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## OneEyedDiva (May 13, 2020)

Well apparently not. Today "the Dow" closed down over 500 points, NASDAQ down 139 points with other indices down as well. I think we're going to see this going on for quite awhile.


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## Don M. (May 13, 2020)

I'm one of those who suspects that there will be another downward slide....as bad, or worse than the February crash.  With so much unemployment, so many uncertainties about this virus, and a good chance for another wave of infections, and so many businesses flirting with major financial troubles, I am not very enthused about market performance in the next few months.  About the Only thing I can think of that might break this cycle is an announcement of an effective vaccine, and the ability to produce millions of doses quickly.


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## fmdog44 (May 13, 2020)

Tech will do OK and sold companies with good balance sheets is where I am .We may see some rough roads ahead for a lot of companies large and small.


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

don't know , don't care ....  i don't try to rule out these things by counting only on prosperity .... my portfolio yins and yangs with gold and long term treasuries flying fighter cover for the equities ...i can do okay no matter what ...took me a long time to realize no one can predict this stuff and outcomes , so bet on them all .

we only spend 20% of all our investing time at the tops of bull markets where 100% equities wins ... the other 80% is spent somewhere between the last LOW   and the last high


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## Em in Ohio (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> don't know , don't care ....  i don't try to rule out these things by counting only on prosperity .... my portfolio yins and yangs with gold and long term treasuries flying fighter cover for the equities ...i can do okay no matter what ...took me a long time to realize no one can predict this stuff and outcomes , so bet on them all .
> 
> we only spend 20% of all our investing time at the tops of bull markets where 100% equities wins ... the other 80% is spent somewhere between the last LOW   and the last high


Sadly, I still don't understand what this means.  Is gold a better (as in safer) investment now and in the next year, in your opinion?


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> Sadly, I still don't understand what this means.  Is gold a better (as in safer) investment now and in the next year, in your opinion?


nooooooooooooooo .. a portfolio that uses a combination of assets is safer than any one of the assets on its own .

taken by themselves , equities , gold and long term treasuries are the most volatile assets .

but combined in a portfolio the yin and yang effect turns the volatility in to something way less .  somethings go up , some things go down so they temper each other .

but the assets have to be very specific that are matched .

only four tend to work together well

broad based equity funds like the s&p 500 or total market

gold like gld or iau

long term treasuries like tlt

short term treasuries like shy , bil shv .

each one responds very strongly to the 4 major outcomes we can have .

recession

depression

prosperity

high inflation .


like clock work any recession or depression  involving a slow down and falling rates will have long term treasuries soar , short term treasuries do well too as they can rebalance and buy assets on the cheap .

stocks and maybe bonds will do well in prosperity if inflation is low .

a weak dollar  or high inflaton from the printing press will have gold do well .

so there is never a time you are exposed to devastation from an economic event .


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## Em in Ohio (May 14, 2020)

THANKS!  This is a good start to clarification and much appreciated.  Now, I need to figure out my IRA and how I can improve my oh-so-tiny value.  All I know for sure is that it lost $500 as of the last report.  For me, on my minimal poverty-level existence, that's almost a month's worth of financial survival.


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> THANKS!  This is a good start to clarification and much appreciated.  Now, I need to figure out my IRA and how I can improve my oh-so-tiny value.  All I know for sure is that it lost $500 as of the last report.  For me, on my minimal poverty-level existence, that's almost a month's worth of financial survival.


be careful betting on only prosperity in my opinion .   a good all weather portfolio can be a great choice in times like this since you profit with something no matter what..

the bigger the portfolio the more severe the damage can be betting on just one outcome ...


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## Don M. (May 14, 2020)

Here's an article I read this morning, from Bloomberg.  It pretty well sums up what I'm feeling about the markets.  I re-balanced my holdings in late Feb., after losing about 8% in a couple of days, and I'm going to stay diversified and rather conservative for the foreseeable future.  I strongly suspect that the previous market lows will be "tested" again in coming weeks.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-heavyweights-sounding-alarm-223330724.html


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

i have no idea what is coming next ... i position for it all so to speak ...

today markets are down  400.00,  

 LONG TREASURY BOND ETF  TLT IS UP 1.38%   ,

 GLD GOLD ETF UP 1% ,

 SHORT TERM TREASURY ETF UP .02


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## Em in Ohio (May 14, 2020)

Don M. said:


> Here's an article I read this morning, from Bloomberg.  It pretty well sums up what I'm feeling about the markets.  I re-balanced my holdings in late Feb., after losing about 8% in a couple of days, and I'm going to stay diversified and rather conservative for the foreseeable future.  I strongly suspect that the previous market lows will be "tested" again in coming weeks.
> 
> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-heavyweights-sounding-alarm-223330724.html


From this link:  "Other marquee investors also have taken more defensive stances recently. Tudor Jones, who runs Tudor Investment Corp., told clients in early May he was investing in gold and had even put a small percentage of his firm’s assets in Bitcoin as he looked for havens. Meanwhile, Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was hoarding cash and shorting commercial real estate. "  My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?"  Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling?   Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> From this link:  "Other marquee investors also have taken more defensive stances recently. Tudor Jones, who runs Tudor Investment Corp., told clients in early May he was investing in gold and had even put a small percentage of his firm’s assets in Bitcoin as he looked for havens. Meanwhile, Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was hoarding cash and shorting commercial real estate. "  My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?"  Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling?   Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.


be careful following these  hedge fund guys . tudor had to close a few funds they guessed wrong so much ..... they basically liquidated the funds at a loss and gave investors back what was left of their   money ...


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## Em in Ohio (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> be careful following these  hedge fund guys . tudor had to close a few funds they guessed wrong so much ..... they basically liquidated the funds at a loss and gave investors back what was left of their   money ...


??? I have no idea what a hedge fund is, so I'll ask again...  Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was *hoarding cash* and shorting commercial real estate. " My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?" Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling? Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.   

Are you saying that _hoarding cash_ has to do with hedge funds?   I'm sorry to be so dumb - but I have tried in the past to grasp stock market knowledge - and failed, totally confused and frustrated.


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> ??? I have no idea what a hedge fund is, so I'll ask again...  Carl Icahn said in late April that he wasn’t buying stocks. Instead, he was *hoarding cash* and shorting commercial real estate. " My question is: What does is mean, "hoarding cash?" Is this a stock thing, a bank account, a mattress filling? Sorry, but I am obviously quite uninformed about these things.
> 
> Are you saying that _hoarding cash_ has to do with hedge funds?   I'm sorry to be so dumb - but I have tried in the past to grasp stock market knowledge - and failed, totally confused and frustrated.


hoarding cash could mean just holding  CASH INSTRUMENTS  .  could be bank ,  or could be t-bills , etc ..... usually t-bills are the vehicle of choice when you have millions to store . it is just sitting on your money waiting to deploy it .


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## Em in Ohio (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> hoarding cash could mean just holding  CASH INSTRUMENTS  .  could be bank ,  or could be t-bills , etc ..... usually t-bills are the vehicle of choice when you have millions to store . it is just sitting on your money waiting to deploy it .


Okay - getting warmer...  I will Google "cash instruments."  At least, now I know that the quote didn't mean cash in the mattress!


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> Okay - getting warmer...  I will Google "cash instruments."  At least, now I know that the quote didn't mean cash in the mattress!


cash instruments are things we put our cash in .  cd's , bank accounts , money markets , t-bills , the mattress , etc .


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## Em in Ohio (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> cash instruments are things we put our cash in .  cd's , bank accounts , money markets , t-bills , the mattress , etc .


This is what I checked and found:

Cash instruments include *savings* and *checking accounts*, certificates of deposit and money market *accounts*. These safe and liquid investments earn modest returns on investment. They also provide financial flexibility because you can use them for emergencies, living expenses and buying other assets at attractive prices.  * Types of Investment Instruments | Finance - Zacks*

Where can I park excess cash?

Money market account. If you want a safe place to park     extra cash that offers a higher yield than a traditional checking or     savings account, consider a money market account. ...​ 
High-yield     savings account. ...​ 
Online     savings account. ...​ 
Certificate     of deposit (CD) ...​ 
Checking     account. ...​ 
Treasury     bills. ...​ 
Short-term     bonds. ...​ 
Riskier     options.​


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## gennie (May 14, 2020)

Good time for crystal balls and tarot cards


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

gennie said:


> Good time for crystal balls and tarot cards


only if you speculate on prosperity being the only outcome your investing is geared for


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## fmdog44 (May 14, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> THANKS!  This is a good start to clarification and much appreciated.  Now, I need to figure out my IRA and how I can improve my oh-so-tiny value.  All I know for sure is that it lost $500 as of the last report.  For me, on my minimal poverty-level existence, that's almost a month's worth of financial survival.


Gold is not an investment rather, solid _protection_ when the financial world falters. Everyone therefore should own a small portion of gold. Some say 20% but I think that is too high. Do your research before you write the check.


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## Red Cinders (May 14, 2020)

The market doesn't seem to make a lot of sense right now.  It's very fickle but is fascinating to watch.

While I do think there will be another big dip over the next few months, the fact that there is so much cash on the sidelines looking for some type of return will keep the market from going too low.  Throw in future Fed action and foreign investors looking for a safer haven, and the market won't crash and burn.

There are a few reasons why I think there will be another dip.  One is that some will be shocked when they see actual reports of no to low earnings.  Knowing it's going to happen is one thing, but seeing it may be sobering. Another reason is because of companies cutting buybacks. Finally, many companies will slide into bankruptcy with some never re-emerging.  Whether this will have a cascading effect remains to be seen.

Admittedly, I know nothing, and everything the market does is now a surprise.  I think we are living in a fake economy with too low interest rates allowing/creating havoc, but since that is not expected to change for a very long time, we're stuck with an over-valued stock market.  Until it's not.


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Gold is not an investment rather, solid _protection_ when the financial world falters. Everyone therefore should own a small portion of gold. Some say 20% but I think that is too high. Do your research before you write the check.


That is what is said about gold but facts show other wise .

gold has now beaten equities the year to date , over the one year , the 3 year . Gold has now beaten equities  the  Last 15 years  and 20 year periods ...

old data going back to before gold was main stream and could be bought by anyone like a stock distorted golds use as an asset .....it was prior the asset choice for the doom and bloomers and gold bugs who liked shiny objects .

today one etf Gld holds 40 billion in gold in just one fund as golds popularity is far different the last 20 years .

the other power in gold is when it is rebalanced in a portfolio to  buy other assets .... in times like now gold blew away a total bond fund and equities .....so compared to selling some of a total bond fund to rebalance and buy equities, gold buys a whole lot more equities being it is up 30% the last year.

people like to look at equities only in a bull at the top ...yet we spend 80% of our time somewhere between the last low and last high .....


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Red Cinders said:


> The market doesn't seem to make a lot of sense right now.  It's very fickle but is fascinating to watch.
> 
> While I do think there will be another big dip over the next few months, the fact that there is so much cash on the sidelines looking for some type of return will keep the market from going too low.  Throw in future Fed action and foreign investors looking for a safer haven, and the market won't crash and burn.
> 
> ...



in 1998 we had about 7500 stocks in the wilshire 5000 index ....today we have 3350 left ....we have more money then ever chasing less than half the stocks .....mergers , bankruptcies, private equity , have all removed half the market over the years


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## oldmontana (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> That is what is said about gold but facts show other wise .
> 
> gold has now beaten equities the year to date , over the one year , the 3 year . Gold has now beaten equities  the  Last 15 years  and 20 year periods ...
> 
> ...


https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

Not that great is it?


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
> 
> Not that great is it?


like I said forget the decades ago when it was a limited access investment for the gold bugs .in fact until 1975 it was banned from ownership for years ....different world just as our markets are different  the last 20 years since high frequency trading representing 90% of all the days volume .

look at the last 20 years and the time frames up to now

gold has outperformed the us stock market

year to date

last year

the last 3 years

the last 15 years

the last 20 years

loooks good to me

once again  you are trying to make a point that actual numbers show are very different from what you are trying to disprove
go right to portfolio visualizer , research it yourself...gold has beaten equities over most time frames the last 20 years .....

in fact long treasury bonds have beaten equites too for most of the last 20 years..

long term treasuries beat equities

year to date

the one year

3 year

just about Tied  the five year

the long term  treasuries beat equities again the last 20 years.

so once   both halves of the cycles are included equities,  don’t look to outstanding by themselves in two decades.

..we can alll cherry pick individual stocks but the Dow , s&p , wilshire and Total market is what is looked at when comparing assets .

equities have functioned better in a more diversified portfolio the last two decades


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## oldmontana (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> That is what is said about gold but facts show other wise .
> 
> gold has now beaten equities the year to date , over the one year , the 3 year . Gold has now beaten equities  the  Last 15 years  and 20 year periods ...
> 
> ...


Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1



If we look instead over the past 15 years, the price of gold has increased by 278%, roughly the same as the 30 year.2 Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 173%.1

So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.

Back to the question of this thread..
*Is the stock market slide over?*

Whats your thinking?


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

Look at the last two decades ...look at the time frames I posted  ... I assume you can read .

Gold has beat equities the last  Ytd , 1 yr ,3 yr , 15 ,20   years ...why do you keep telling me about 30 years ago  , 100 years ago or why not 5000 years ago ..citizens could not even buy gold for investment from 1934 to 1975 in America . I would think you know it was fixed in a range from 26 bucks to 35 an ounce for 40 years .. IT DID NOT EVEN TRADE IN AMERICA....but then again the mere fact you tried to make a comparison tells me maybe not .

why in the world would you post a chart for 100 years .

you need to really look at the last two decades where gold actually became main stream ...I know you like to twist and skew data but it serves no purpose looking back any more than two decades to get a feel for it as a viable main stream investment ...it just tends to run longer cycles than equities but it certainly has held its own the last two decades.

it especially has added alpha  to portfolios in down turns compared to holding total bond funds ....it buys way more equities in rebalancing for the next bull...so gold  behaves very differently in a portfolio and rebalanced than sitting static as a lump ...but even as a lump it did well the last two decades beating equities over that time  frame


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## oldmontana (May 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Look at the last two decades ...look at the time frames I posted  ... I assume you can read .
> 
> Gold has beat equities the last  Ytd , 1 yr ,3 yr , 15 ,20   years ...why do you keep telling me about 30 years ago  , 100 years ago or why not 5000 years ago ..citizens could not even buy gold for investment from 1934 to 1975 in America . I would think you know it was fixed in a range from 26 bucks to 35 an ounce for 40 years .. IT DID NOT EVEN TRADE IN AMERICA....but then again the mere fact you tried to make a comparison tells me maybe not .
> 
> ...


Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1 

You talk about over the last year..OK.  Come back in 2 years and see how gold compared to the DJIA..think ahead...use reason. 

Buy gold, I will stick with dividend paying stocks.  Gold does not pay dividends, unless you buy gold mining stocks.


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## mathjak107 (May 14, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1
> 
> You talk about over the last year..OK.  Come back in 2 years and see how gold compared to the DJIA..think ahead...use reason.
> 
> Buy gold, I will stick with dividend paying stocks.  Gold does not pay dividends, unless you buy gold mining stocks.


Who cares.    First off no gold etfs even existed to trade it 30 years ago nor was it a main stream investment product .,,,,.second of all who cares about 30 years ago .


what matters most to us is the most  action when we have the most dollars acted on .

.the size of your portfolio is a huge factor as to what time frame matters  ...the greater the portfolio is as time goes on the bigger the effect returns have .... more  recent market action has a very big effect on our portfolios since now is likely way higher than 30 years ago ...even 20 years ago any market action  was on far far less dollars .

What counts the most for me is the last 15 years , since that is when our portfolio grew the most as real estate we owned was liquidated over the last 15 years ,with the last 3 years counting the most when our fuel tanks are full.

pulling time frames out of your butt is meaningless .....what counts is where your dollars fall out and what market action did and when.

if you don’t understand what I mean by the size vs the time frames matter you can read and learn ,although evidently you don’t bother , you just argue

https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-portfolio-size-effect-with-bond-tent-in-retirement-red-zone/


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## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

interesting article in seeking alpha today on gld 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-0


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## fmdog44 (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> That is what is said about gold but facts show other wise .
> 
> gold has now beaten equities the year to date , over the one year , the 3 year . Gold has now beaten equities  the  Last 15 years  and 20 year periods ...
> 
> ...


No one said it's value does not increase, only that it is viewed as a good safety valve against the stock market failing. You are comparing gold to equity averages and indexes, not individual stocks is not true of all stocks.


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## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> No one said it's value does not increase, only that it is viewed as a good safety valve against the stock market failing. You are comparing gold to equity averages and indexes, not individual stocks is not true of all stocks.


NOTHING WOULD EVER  BE TRUE OF ALL STOCKS ... but all our personal returns work off of indivudual situation .. we all buy at different times , rebalance at different times , sell at different times and have different tax structures ...we can never speak in terms of any ones personal rate of return ..in fact the biggest factor is how much money of yours markets are working on at any point in time .  a 5% move in a mediocre market today blows away a great market year 25-30 years ago for most of us in terms of dollars gained or lost .

all comparisons are always done off funds or assets as a group  or index

even so i bet indexing beats 90% of small investors who buy individual stocks long term anyway


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## fmdog44 (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> NOTHING WOULD EVER  BE TRUE OF ALL STOCKS ... but all our personal returns work off of indivudual situation .. we all buy at different times , rebalance at different times , sell at different times and have different tax structures ...we can never speak in terms of any ones personal rate of return ..in fact the biggest factor is how much money of yours markets are working on at any point in time .  a 5% move in a mediocre market today blows away a great market year 25-30 years ago for most of us in terms of dollars gained or lost .
> 
> all comparisons are always done off funds or assets as a group  or index
> 
> even so i bet indexing beats 90% of small investors who buy individual stocks long term anyway


The single point of buying stocks is how well versed we are in selecting them.


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## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> The single point of buying stocks is how well versed we are in selecting them.


brokerages have teams of analysts  who do nothing but  select stocks , and try to estimate earnings ... with teams of people that do this full time , very few at the end of the day beat just  indexing when all is said and done .....there are some great funds  but for the most part most small investors suck at it long term .

miss one earnings report and years of gains can go away with individual stocks , or as well as you think one knows a stock you better know what the competitors have on their drawing board ....
\
even if you get it all right in your stocks , there will still be time frames other assets kick their butt .


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## oldmontana (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> interesting article in seeking alpha today on gld
> 
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-0


Gold has always done well in times like we are in today....anyone that has watched gold would know that...no need to hear it from a expert is there?


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## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> Gold has always done well in times like we are in today....anyone that has watched gold would know that...no need to hear it from a expert is there?


Not just times we are in ..it has beaten the major indexes over almost all the time frames with only a handful of exceptions for two decades ......going back farther makes no sense since gold was not main stream nor available easily to the masses like stocks ..

With all the gold etfs it has traded for years now very differently ...plus you did not have all the all weather portfolios you do today that use gold as an asset class


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## oldmontana (May 15, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> The single point of buying stocks is how well versed we are in selecting them.


Right.  

If one has average intelligence and does their home work will do well in the market....I have.  I do subscribe to two publications and get tons of data form my brokerage firm but in the end I decide.


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## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> Right.
> 
> If one has average intelligence and does their home work will do well in the market....I have.  I do subscribe to two publications and get tons of data form my brokerage firm but in the end I decide.


Average investors have not done well in individual stocks for a number of reasons ....you can find all kinds of data on this ....yes ,some can do well but average intelligence does not seem to mean much or add much to the equation ...the fact is that  most small investors who buy individual stocks do not beat even the s& p over the long term


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## fmdog44 (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> brokerages have teams of analysts  who do nothing but  select stocks , and try to estimate earnings ... with teams of people that do this full time , very few at the end of the day beat just  indexing when all is said and done .....there are some great funds  but for the most part most small investors suck at it long term .
> 
> miss one earnings report and years of gains can go away with individual stocks , or as well as you think one knows a stock you better know what the competitors have on their drawing board ....
> \
> even if you get it all right in your stocks , there will still be time frames other assets kick their butt .


Picking winners is like everything else, do your homework and you will be fine and there is no room for any counter remarks on that fact. Anyone in the money world that believes everything comes up roses is an idiot and needs to invest in a shoebox. Brokerages have a long term history of gains and losses. Some brokers are no more trained in analyzing companies than a parrot. "Do your homework."


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## oldmontana (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Not just times we are in ..it has beaten the major indexes over almost all the time frames with only a handful of exceptions for two decades ......going back farther makes no sense since gold was not main stream nor available easily to the masses like stocks ..
> 
> With all the gold etfs it has traded for years now very differently ...plus you did not have all the all weather portfolios you do today that use gold as an asset class


*Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds*
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold, and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.1 2

Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1

If we look instead over the past 15 years, the price of gold has increased by 278%, roughly the same as the 30 year.2 Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 173%.1

So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.

Turning to bonds, the average annual rate of return on investment-grade corporate bonds going back to the 1920s is around 5.25%. That indicates that over the past 30 years, corporate bonds have returned around 450% - nearly double that of gold. Over a 15-year period the return on bonds and gold has been fairly comparable.

==========================================================

If a investor is looking for a steady return do not but gold as it does not pay a dividend.  Stocks do.  Bonds do.


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## fmdog44 (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Average investors have not done well in individual stocks for a number of reasons ....you can find all kinds of data on this ....yes ,some can do well but average intelligence does not seem to mean much or add much to the equation ...the fact is that  most small investors who buy individual stocks do not beat even the s& p over the long term


One big reason rookie investors lose money is p-a-n-i-c.


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## fmdog44 (May 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> *Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds*
> When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold, and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.1 2
> 
> Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1
> ...


Good points


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp


fmdog44 said:


> One big reason rookie investors lose money is p-a-n-i-c.


that has nothing to do with the lagging returns of  investors in individual stocks .....investors panIc in funds too and exhibit poor behavior in both...so we are not considering poor investor behavior since that is common to both


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

The fact is gold has now beaten stocks over  almost all time frames the last two decades ...it is only the last 20 years gold has become a main stream investment accessible through etfs ..

it is also when most of these all weather portfolios came about that use gold as an asset class ....prior to the last 20 years gold had little use in portfolios and was the asset of choice by doom and gloom era and gold bugs .


very different asset behavior than decades prior


----------



## oldmontana (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Average investors have not done well in individual stocks for a number of reasons ....you can find all kinds of data on this ....yes ,some can do well but average intelligence does not seem to mean much or add much to the equation ...the fact is that  most small investors who buy individual stocks do not beat even the s& p over the long term


You seem to be on this board 24/7. Good for you!

FYI...I am not an average investor.  I have 60 years of investing, not that makes me a good investor.  I have learned a lot over that time. made many mistakes...and have learned by my mistakes...so I can say I am not a average investor.

You seem to be bent on trying to put down everything I post.  So be it!


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> You seem to be on this board 24/7. Good for you!
> 
> FYI...I am not an average investor.  I have 60 years of investing, not that makes me a good investor.  I have learned a lot over that time. made many mistakes...and have learned by my mistakes...so I can say I am not a average investor.
> 
> You seem to be bent on trying to put down everything I post.  So be it!


Who cares about you ...this discussion is not about you ...it is about asset performance for one thing ....the other statement was the fact most small investors do not beat the s s&p in individual stocks ....that does not mean everyone nor does it mean you


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> You seem to be on this board 24/7. Good for you!
> 
> FYI...I am not an average investor.  I have 60 years of investing, not that makes me a good investor.  I have learned a lot over that time. made many mistakes...and have learned by my mistakes...so I can say I am not a average investor.
> 
> You seem to be bent on trying to put down everything I post.  So be it!


no you have it backwards ..it is you trying to disprove what I post with either no facts , wrong facts, or you try to post things like a 100  year chart that have zero To do with anything I said.

believe me I do my homework ..I talk facts and figures and if the numbers show what I say there is nothing to argue but yet you do it anyway


----------



## oldmontana (May 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> no you have it backwards ..it is you trying to disprove what I post with either no facts , wrong facts, or you try to post things like a 100  year chart that have zero To do with anything I said.
> 
> believe me I do my homework ..I talk facts and figures and if the numbers show what I say there is nothing to argue but yet you do it anyway


Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold, and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.1 2

Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1

If we look instead over the past 15 years, the price of gold has increased by 278%, roughly the same as the 30 year.2 Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 173%.1

So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.

Turning to bonds, the average annual rate of return on investment-grade corporate bonds going back to the 1920s is around 5.25%. That indicates that over the past 30 years, corporate bonds have returned around 450% - nearly double that of gold. Over a 15-year period the return on bonds and gold has been fairly comparable.

============================================

These are facts..look at the 30 year.  I like facts.

I think this board is about people expressing what they think ...opinion..and facts.  I do both.   If you do not like what I post like I said ..so be it.


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

Which was not being discussed at All for for a variety of reasons ...I SPECIFICALLY SAID THE LAST  TWO DECADES ....GOLD WAS NOT A MAIN STREAM INVESTMENT PRIOR ...NOR WERE THERE MANY PORTFOLIOS UTILIZING GOLD IN THOSE DAYS ...THERE WAS ONLY ONE I KNOW OF ...

the data is very skewed 30 years ago for an asset like gold which is why I won’t even discuss 30 years ago. ...your chart of 100 years ago as well as comments about its returns going back to 1920 was hilarious since it had a fixed price for decades and was not an investable asset in America ....

you can post what you want but do it as a comment on someone else’s post because all you do is waste my time replying to the nonsense answers you reply with


----------



## Aunt Bea (May 15, 2020)

I've always viewed investing in gold as a bet against the future.

So far I've been able to make a reasonable return over time without holding gold or other precious metals.

I agree with oldmontana that this should be a forum where we can all share our personal views and experiences.

I really enjoy hearing how people have chosen to invest and manage their personal finances even if those choices are quite different from my own approach.


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> I've always viewed investing in gold as a bet against the future.
> 
> So far I've been able to make a reasonable return over time without holding gold or other precious metals.
> 
> ...


I agree but that is not what old Montana does ...he just argues and what he argues does not even apply to the thread he is arguing as he tries so hard to disprove what I said ..so he just changes the parameters and goes off on a different answer.

if I specifically say something is pertaining to the last two decades he chimes back in and goes That is not correct ...then posts a chart from 100 years ago ..I mean give me a break with this crap.

that is arguing just to argue ....


----------



## oldmontana (May 15, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> I've always viewed investing in gold as a bet against the future.
> 
> So far I've been able to make a reasonable return over time without holding gold or other precious metals.
> 
> ...


Thanks.

The fact is we have a poster that can not stand it when I post information that does not go with his thinking...like when I posted..

Gold vs. Stocks and Bonds
When evaluating the performance of gold as an investment over the long term, it really depends on the time period being analyzed. For example, over a 30-year period, stocks and bonds have outperformed gold, and over a 15-year period, gold has outperformed stocks and bonds.1 2

Over the past 30 years, the price of gold has increased by around 280%.2 Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained 839%.1

If we look instead over the past 15 years, the price of gold has increased by 278%, roughly the same as the 30 year.2 Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 173%.1

So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.

Turning to bonds, the average annual rate of return on investment-grade corporate bonds going back to the 1920s is around 5.25%. That indicates that over the past 30 years, corporate bonds have returned around 450% - nearly double that of gold. Over a 15-year period the return on bonds and gold has been fairly comparable. 

========================================== 

That link showed facts and it showed at times gold did better than stocks and at times stocks did better than gold.  No 100 year chart.  It was not arguing. 

That said I started this thread and the subject is "Is the stock market over"...its not about gold.  

Happy investing.


----------



## mathjak107 (May 15, 2020)

Read the thread ,there were questions asked about gold in it by others .That is where the topic came from


----------



## fmdog44 (May 16, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Which was not being discussed at All for for a variety of reasons ...I SPECIFICALLY SAID THE LAST  TWO DECADES ....GOLD WAS NOT A MAIN STREAM INVESTMENT PRIOR ...NOR WERE THERE MANY PORTFOLIOS UTILIZING GOLD IN THOSE DAYS ...THERE WAS ONLY ONE I KNOW OF ...
> 
> the data is very skewed 30 years ago for an asset like gold which is why I won’t even discuss 30 years ago. ...your chart of 100 years ago as well as comments about its returns going back to 1920 was hilarious since it had a fixed price for decades and was not an investable asset in America ....
> 
> you can post what you want but do it as a comment on someone else’s post because all you do is waste my time replying to the nonsense answers you reply with


Hit Caps Lock.


----------



## fmdog44 (May 16, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> NOTHING WOULD EVER  BE TRUE OF ALL STOCKS ... but all our personal returns work off of indivudual situation .. we all buy at different times , rebalance at different times , sell at different times and have different tax structures ...we can never speak in terms of any ones personal rate of return ..in fact the biggest factor is how much money of yours markets are working on at any point in time .  a 5% move in a mediocre market today blows away a great market year 25-30 years ago for most of us in terms of dollars gained or lost .
> 
> all comparisons are always done off funds or assets as a group  or index
> 
> even so i bet indexing beats 90% of small investors who buy individual stocks long term anyway


Hit Caps Lock


----------



## mathjak107 (May 16, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Hit Caps Lock


It is fine as is


----------



## Butterfly (May 16, 2020)

What is/are etfs?


----------



## mathjak107 (May 16, 2020)

etf's are like mutual funds that trade like stocks ...  very popular ones are total market index funds  like vti ,  s&p 500 funds like voo or spy .  gold funds like gld ,  long term treasury funds like  tlt .


you can trade them all day like stocks  unlike mutual funds  which only price once a day at the close


----------



## fmdog44 (May 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> It is fine as is


No, it really is not.


----------



## fuzzybuddy (May 17, 2020)

I don't know much about economic theories, but I doubt the full effect of "self isolation" has hit the market. Some seem to think that we throw a switch and the virus disappears and we're back in business. I really don't see that happening. People are racking up way too much debt just trying to stay in their homes and  keep eating. Plus, this isn't a normal recession, people are terrified. It's been a huge psychological blow, which is going to take a while to dissipate. Few are going to putting in a new pool. Everybody took a hit  from the virus- from McDonald's to Geico, so what you  are going to invest in short term? The word "profit" won't be used until 2021, at the extreme earliest.


----------



## mathjak107 (May 17, 2020)

fuzzybuddy said:


> I don't know much about economic theories, but I doubt the full effect of "self isolation" has hit the market. Some seem to think that we throw a switch and the virus disappears and we're back in business. I really don't see that happening. People are racking up way too much debt just trying to stay in their homes and  keep eating. Plus, this isn't a normal recession, people are terrified. It's been a huge psychological blow, which is going to take a while to dissipate. Few are going to putting in a new pool. Everybody took a hit  from the virus- from McDonald's to Geico, so what you  are going to invest in short term? The word "profit" won't be used until 2021, at the extreme earliest.


markets work differently ....remember  laying off people improves the bottom line .. analysts spend their time trying to guess a companies earnings ... their estimates can be real crappy .... but if earnings come in not good , but less bad those stocks go up .... so it is all about meeting or beating estimates whiuch already are crappy .

also 25% of the major index's are in internet sales and information services ... that too has been holding up . lets not forget that  20% of the market index's are influenced heavily by the faang stocks too


----------



## Liberty (May 17, 2020)

Speaking of market related concerns...would like to know opinions on the virus sell off creating "Fallen Angels" issues  among the bond market.


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## mathjak107 (May 17, 2020)

High yield was a good buy a few weeks ago ...I have  20% fidelity high yield in one of my portfolio models ...it is not the great deal it was at the lows


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## gennie (May 17, 2020)

Liberty said:


> Speaking of market related concerns...would like to know opinions on the virus sell off creating "Fallen Angels" issues  among the bond market.



Elected officials who used insider trader info to increase their already considerable wealth are scum and need to resign their office and go home.  I'm looking at you R.B.


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## fmdog44 (May 20, 2020)

Memo to all: this is a health related market for the first time in history so toss all of your books and magazines on "How To Invest."


----------



## oldmontana (May 20, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Memo to all: this is a health related market for the first time in history so toss all of your books and magazines on "How To Invest."


You nailed it.  Its a different ball game...rely on your ability to reason and not what some high paid so called expert says.


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## Aunt Bea (May 21, 2020)

_“The four most dangerous words in investing are: “This time it’s different.”_ - Sir John Templeton


----------



## mathjak107 (May 21, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> _“The four most dangerous words in investing are: “This time it’s different.”_ - Sir John Templeton


we are now within 10% of the all time high again ...

this is despite what we all see and think about this becoming the great depression ..those who were waiting for the proverbial crash  missed the boat again and the money ship sailed without them ....


----------



## Aunt Bea (May 21, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> we are now within 10% of the all time high again ...
> 
> this is despite what we all see and think about this becoming the great depression ..those who were waiting for the proverbial crash  missed the boat again and the money ship sailed without them ....


I agree.

If you had sound investments and a proper allocation for your goals before the slide you most likely have sound investments and a proper allocation for your goals today.

I still believe that we will take another hard fall/correction before we find our footing and get moving steadily forward.

We'll see!


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## gennie (May 21, 2020)

I don't think the world economic scene has felt the full impact of the Covid 19 virus as it has not yet finished its first round.  

People in a position to have early information about trends that will affect the market will do well.  Ordinary investors who operate on routine information available to all plus gut instinct ................... not so much.  JMHO


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## mathjak107 (May 21, 2020)

gennie said:


> I don't think the world economic scene has felt the full impact of the Covid 19 virus as it has not yet finished its first round.
> 
> People in a position to have early information about trends that will affect the market will do well.  Ordinary investors who operate on routine information available to all plus gut instinct ................... not so much.  JMHO


All one had to do was nothing ...just stay invested ....we are 10% from the peak ...thinking you are going to time in and out hurts most investors


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## OneEyedDiva (Jul 6, 2020)

Apple hit it's 52 week high today but by market close it had slid down close to $2 less than that high to close at $373.85/share. NASDAQ hit what I believe is their all time high today at 10,433.65. I'm glad I bought what I did when the market made those steep drops. I believe we'll continue to experience more drops.


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## mathjak107 (Jul 6, 2020)

We likely will have more drops as markets are jittery..but it looks like markets closed the books on 2020 ....the prices today seem to be the price for a ticket for 2021 and beyond .....those who wait for this to blow over will be paying even more to get a seat


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## rgp (Jul 11, 2020)

If you are in the market ,do you feel secure in the market ? 

I am down to just one market investment, a nice one/old company. I have two 'other' types of investments . I am seriously thinking of going to just cash. I'm 71 yrs old, if we have a moderate to major dip in the market ? I'm too old to recover the dip, and 'return' to where i am. And lets face it, the market effects all other investments.


----------



## mathjak107 (Jul 11, 2020)

rgp said:


> If you are in the market ,do you feel secure in the market ?
> 
> I am down to just one market investment, a nice one/old company. I have two 'other' types of investments . I am seriously thinking of going to just cash. I'm 71 yrs old, if we have a moderate to major dip in the market ? I'm too old to recover the dip, and 'return' to where i am. And lets face it, the market effects all other investments.


i use an all weather portfolio and i  am very comfortable with it . it makes money up or down .


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## Aunt Bea (Jul 11, 2020)

I'm strictly a mutual fund investor and I plan to die with money in the market.

At the end of June, I was down 1.8% so far this year.

Last year I was up 15.8% for the year.

In my case, it all seems to balance out and the trend is always up over time.  

I plan to stay with my current allocation.

I try to plan ahead and make sure that I have enough cash on hand to ride out the rough spots.  

We all need to do what's best for our own situation but IMO being invested doesn't have to be an all or nothing proposition. 

Good luck!


----------



## OneEyedDiva (Jul 11, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> I'm strictly a mutual fund investor and I plan to die with money in the market.
> 
> At the end of June, I was down 1.8% so far this year.
> 
> ...


Aunt Bea...I ditto everything you replied except I do have two ETFs and small amounts of Apple & Facebook. Last year my portfolio was up 22.8% and it's still up double digits as of this past Friday.


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## Pecos (Jul 11, 2020)

The wife and I have about 33% of our investments in cash, 6%  in individual stocks, and the rest in large balanced funds that hold about 35% bonds.

We don't envision making any changes, but since we are not spending much these days, our MRD withdrawals are getting routed into CD's or I-Bonds. We will need that money later and we want it to be there.

Right now, the single investment with the highest rate of return is the whole life insurance policies that I bought back in the early 70's and 80's. My guess is that the insurance company (Navy Mutual Aid) believed that higher levels of inflation would always exist and never envisioned that an annual return of 5% would a high return. Those paid up legacy policies turned out to be a good deal.


----------



## mathjak107 (Jul 11, 2020)

Pecos said:


> The wife and I have about 33% of our investments in cash, 6%  in individual stocks, and the rest in large balanced funds that hold about 35% bonds.
> 
> We don't envision making any changes, but since we are not spending much these days, our MRD withdrawals are getting routed into CD's or I-Bonds. We will need that money later and we want it to be there.
> 
> Right now, the single investment with the highest rate of return is the whole life insurance policies that I bought back in the early 70's and 80's. My guess is that the insurance company (Navy Mutual Aid) believed that higher levels of inflation would always exist and never envisioned that an annual return of 5% would a high return. Those paid up legacy policies turned out to be a good deal.


You likely were not aware that you can over fund that policy ....there can be no fees or commissions taken on over funded money .....that money will get that 5% , then you can draw out that extra over funded money as a loan , never pay it back and get that 5% in effect tax free ....one caveat though ...

there is a limit to how much extra you can over fund the policy before the irs says it is not life insurance but a modified endowment policy ...but each year they give you the mec limits and you just go 1 dollar under the limit


----------



## Pecos (Jul 11, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> You likely were not aware that you can over fund that policy ....there can be no fees or commissions taken on over funded money .....that money will get that 5% , then you can draw out that extra over funded money as a loan , never pay it back and get that 5% in effect tax free ....one caveat though ...
> 
> there is a limit to how much extra you can over fund the policy before the irs says it is not life insurance but a modified endowment policy ...but each year they give you the mec limits and you just go 1 dollar under the limit


Thanks, once again you have posted some good insight.


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## rgp (Jul 15, 2020)

Anyone else holding P&G stock ? I keep wondering if it is going to split ? The last time it did {2004} it was around $97.00 p/share ....... now it is up to $125.00 +/-. A split would be nice @ this point .

And of course the same old question remains ......... should I hold or should I sell ? I'd hate to hold .... then watch it plummet in value . Hence the Wall-Street gamble....


----------



## mathjak107 (Jul 15, 2020)

rgp said:


> Anyone else holding P&G stock ? I keep wondering if it is going to split ? The last time it did {2004} it was around $97.00 p/share ....... now it is up to $125.00 +/-. A split would be nice @ this point .
> 
> And of course the same old question remains ......... should I hold or should I sell ? I'd hate to hold .... then watch it plummet in value . Hence the Wall-Street gamble....


why would a split be nice ?  today with 90% of every days trading high speed machine selling the belief that more small investors would buy a cheaper stock became pretty much irrelevant


----------



## Aunt Bea (Jul 15, 2020)

rgp said:


> Anyone else holding P&G stock ? I keep wondering if it is going to split ? The last time it did {2004} it was around $97.00 p/share ....... now it is up to $125.00 +/-. A split would be nice @ this point .
> 
> *And of course the same old question remains ......... should I hold or should I sell ? I'd hate to hold .... then watch it plummet in value . Hence the Wall-Street gamble....*


If it's a major holding I would look at selling all or part of it and spreading the risk over several stocks or a stock index fund/ETF.

Good luck!


----------



## rgp (Jul 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> why would a split be nice ?  today with 90% of every days trading high speed machine selling the belief that more small investors would buy a cheaper stock became pretty much irrelevant



 Well, in the ones past that I experienced....the price/value drop was about what was expected, but the rise back in price/value was [as I recall] pretty quick . As other investors scrambled to buy at the post split, lower price p/share. More money in my pocket overall .


----------



## mathjak107 (Jul 15, 2020)

rgp said:


> Well, in the ones past that I experienced....the price/value drop was about what was expected, but the rise back in price/value was [as I recall] pretty quick . As other investors scrambled to buy at the post split, lower price p/share. More money in my pocket overall .


Stock splits have just about disappeared.....

the reason is relatively few small investors buy individual stocks anymore and havent for years...etfs are getting most small investor money with mutual funds second .

.going back to 2016 there were just 6 splits and they produced no benefit


----------



## oldmontana (Jul 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Stock splits have just about disappeared.....
> 
> the reason is relatively few small investors buy individual stocks anymore and havent for years...etfs are getting most small investor money with mutual funds second .
> 
> ...


----------



## mathjak107 (Jul 16, 2020)

that was the theory but in practice it has not played out that way in years so they are almost a thing of the past . 


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...-why-thats-not-good-for-the-market-2019-10-11


----------



## OneEyedDiva (Jul 31, 2020)

Wow! Apple's price jumped up by $40.28 per share today bring it's share price to $425.04!


----------



## Pecos (Sep 3, 2020)

The stock market was brutal today, but in view of the recent unexplainable gains I suppose a big fall should be expected.


----------



## Don M. (Sep 3, 2020)

Pecos said:


> The stock market was brutal today, but in view of the recent unexplainable gains I suppose a big fall should be expected.



For Sure!  Given the uncertainty with the Corona Virus, the turmoil in the cities, the high unemployment, And the upcoming election, I'm surprised that the markets have largely recovered from their March/April lows.  I fully expect a big dip in the coming weeks.  This market is looking more and more like the collapse in 2008.


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## Ladybj (Sep 3, 2020)

We will continue to see DIPS AND DRIPS, UPS AND DOWNS for a while.


----------



## WhatInThe (Sep 3, 2020)

I think the markets have a lot of new if not more thvestors with different trading patterns. Too many stocks skyrocketed pump and dump style a month into the lockdowns. And theire will be profit taking. A set of hills on this roller coaster.


----------



## Aunt Bea (Sep 4, 2020)




----------



## garyt1957 (Sep 24, 2020)

rgp said:


> Anyone else holding P&G stock ? I keep wondering if it is going to split ? The last time it did {2004} it was around $97.00 p/share ....... now it is up to $125.00 +/-. A split would be nice @ this point .
> 
> And of course the same old question remains ......... should I hold or should I sell ? I'd hate to hold .... then watch it plummet in value . Hence the Wall-Street gamble....


Why would a split be nice?


----------



## garyt1957 (Sep 24, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> why would a split be nice ?  today with 90% of every days trading high speed machine selling the belief that more small investors would buy a cheaper stock became pretty much irrelevant


Exactly. Individual investors are a blip on the market. And if you can buy 10 shares at $100 you can buy one share at $1000. Makes no difference.


----------



## Phoenix (Sep 24, 2020)

October is always the time of reckoning for the stock market.  If things are going to crash they usually do it then.  Be careful for the rest of this month and for the month of October.  Plus things are iffy because of the impending elections.  That affects things.


----------



## tbeltrans (Sep 24, 2020)

When hearing or reading people discuss what the market will do in the future, how long a particular trend will last, etc., it reminds me of people betting in Las Vegas.  My wife and I went to Las Vegas a number of times back in the 1980s when she was a programmer for a travel agency owned by one of the airlines so that she got the same travel deals as airline employees.  We were able to fly to Las Vegas for $20 round trip.  Neither of us is interested in gambling, but the fact that Las Vegas is a 24/7 town, we could go see interesting sites such as Bryce Canyon, the Grand Canyon, etc., and come back at all hours to find restaurants open.

In the hotel room (we stayed at a round building at the end of the downtown street with casinos), there was a TV channel that discussed how to gamble.  I watched a bit of it and it always sounded very much like trying to predict the stock market.

One thing that I have always found disturbing about the stock market is that the word "fear" is ALWAYS used in the media.  It doesn't matter if the market is doing well or not, investors always seem to fear something going wrong - a good trend ending, a bad trend not ending, etc.

I can honestly say that I have no idea what the market is going to do, but I can certainly guess if I studied trends and that sort of thing.

We decided to insulate ourselves as much as possible from the stock market when we set up our retirement.  The tension is between being "safe" but possibly running short in the face of a future inflation, and losing serious money when it is most needed because the stock market is down when you need to cash in.  We have done our best to balance that.  As for financial advice, that is so individual that what seems right for us may not be the right thing for anybody else.

Edit: An interesting thing that I saw as my co-workers and I approached retirement age is that those who talked the talk as if they were "in the know", seemed the least financially ready to retire, and many are still working today.  I never claimed special knowledge except to always spend less than I earn and never go into debt.  I retired several years early.

Tony


----------



## rgp (Sep 28, 2020)

garyt1957 said:


> Why would a split be nice?




   Oops....Sorry for the long delay in replying....

 I just remember the last split, and if I recall correctly, after the split, it rose in value fairly quickly ....... More $$

 I do realize investing has changed but, if an individual sees the lower cost per share @ the split. It might promote better sales of the shares. Raising the value. I do realize it all levels out @ some point, but it might create a brief boost..............jmo


----------



## mathjak107 (Sep 28, 2020)

rgp said:


> Oops....Sorry for the long delay in replying....
> 
> I just remember the last split, and if I recall correctly, after the split, it rose in value fairly quickly ....... More $$
> 
> I do realize investing has changed but, if an individual sees the lower cost per share @ the split. It might promote better sales of the shares. Raising the value. I do realize it all levels out @ some point, but it might create a brief boost..............jmo


for years now splits have largely stopped as they end up adding little value to markets where 80% of all the daily trades are high frequency trading by pros . 

through the years splits became less and less popular .


----------



## rgp (Sep 28, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> for years now splits have largely stopped as they end up adding little value to markets where 80% of all the daily trades are high frequency trading by pros .
> 
> through the years splits became less and less popular .



 Yeah, you're right.....like I said, I realize that things have changed ...... I think i just had a flash-back to the good'ol days .........

 I'm just glad P&G has stayed healthy .


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## fmdog44 (Sep 29, 2020)

"Round and round she goes where she lands nobody knows."


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## garyt1957 (Sep 30, 2020)

rgp said:


> Oops....Sorry for the long delay in replying....
> 
> I just remember the last split, and if I recall correctly, after the split, it rose in value fairly quickly ....... More $$
> 
> I do realize investing has changed but, if an individual sees the lower cost per share @ the split. It might promote better sales of the shares. Raising the value. I do realize it all levels out @ some point, but it might create a brief boost..............jmo


  Yea a split may have a momentary rise but it's not going to make a difference over the long haul. As for individuals buying shares, as I posted earlier they're not even a blip on the radar compared to institutional buying.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2020)

garyt1957 said:


> Yea a split may have a momentary rise but it's not going to make a difference over the long haul. As for individuals buying shares, as I posted earlier they're not even a blip on the radar compared to institutional buying.


most small investors do not buy individual stocks either , they buy funds and etf's .

the price of the stocks contained are irrelevant to most small investors


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## garyt1957 (Oct 2, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> most small investors do not buy individual stocks either , they buy funds and etf's .
> 
> the price of the stocks contained are irrelevant to most small investors


 my point exactly


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 25, 2020)

The Dow passed 30,000 points for the first time yesterday and slid to 29,872 today. The 52 week low was18,214.  The Nasdaq is at 12,049 a little lower than it's 52 week high.  The 52 low as 6631. Doesn't mean there won't be another "slide" though.


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## oldmontana (Nov 25, 2020)

I say no , but there are many stock that could go down, stocks that have and are being hurt by COVID 19 but many of they are already down,


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## Aunt Bea (Nov 25, 2020)

Market slides are part of life but IMO if the new vaccines control the virus we will see another surge due to pent-up demand and improved performance from companies that have learned how to better control costs during the pandemic.


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## oldmontana (Nov 26, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> View attachment 135400
> 
> Market slides are part of life but IMO if the new vaccines control the virus we will see another surge due to pent-up demand and improved performance from companies that have learned how to better control costs during the pandemic.




The stock market is a market of stocks and like you say some will do better than others because of many reasons.


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## fmdog44 (Nov 26, 2020)

Several "gurus" are pushing the idea of switching some many to value investing now.


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## Don M. (Nov 26, 2020)

Between this Corona Virus, and this turbulent election, 2020 has been one of the "wildest" years, on record, for investors.  Things could go either way in 2021.  However, if past history is any indicator, there is room for some optimism in 2021 as a new administration takes over in Washington.  Here is a chart showing the results over the past 90 years......

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/joe-biden-start-stock-market-210915980.html

Personally, I intend to stay diversified, conservatively, and hope that the markets show more stability in coming months.


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 26, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Several "gurus" are pushing the idea of switching some many to value investing now.


I've learned my lesson the hard way...don't listen to the "gurus". Listening to a couple of very respected financial "gurus"who highly touted a a mutual fund and a stock wound up losing me money albeit, not a whole lot.  If a person keeps his/her portfolio diversified enough according to the original plans, goals and risk tolerance, there may be no need to switch to this or that.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 26, 2020)

Best results usually require nudging a portfolio like steering a big ship to keep it on course ...not every  investment is going to be a good choice at times .....

we see that today in long term bonds as they have been having an awful slide.

one can still be in bonds but bonds you would use when rates are trending up are different then trending down .

same with stocks ...many funds are way to top heavy in faang .....fidelity contra as an example is up 30% ytd but it is 25% faang ......


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## Pecos (Nov 26, 2020)

I looked at the recent fast rise in the market and decided that it was time to pull a little out ( .004%) and put it against the remaining balance of our mortgage. I remain a bit cynical that the market will continue to go up in 2021.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 27, 2020)

Pecos said:


> I looked at the recent fast rise in the market and decided that it was time to pull a little out ( .004%) and put it against the remaining balance of our mortgage. I remain a bit cynical that the market will continue to go up in 2021.


i dont think there are many of us that have high hopes for the markets  just by looking around us .

the good news is bull markets rarely end with so much pessimism .... rarely does what we all see and think is eminent  play out that way .

but i do have to say i  too am the most defensive i have been in my 33 years investing ... i still hold quite a bit of funds but i am very cash heavy right now .

it was a good year for me and i intend to hold on to as much as i can of those wonderful gains .


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## Don M. (Nov 27, 2020)

To me, the most reliable indicator of where the markets are heading, is the VIX....CBOE Volatility Index.  Through much of the past 4 or 5 years, it has been holding under 20....then, when this Virus news hit the markets, it shot up to almost 80....and the stock markets went into the ditch in late February.  Recently, it has settled down to not much over 20.  It seems that the lower the VIX goes, the better the markets perform, and vice versa.


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 28, 2020)

Don M. said:


> To me, the most reliable indicator of where the markets are heading, is the VIX....CBOE Volatility Index.  Through much of the past 4 or 5 years, it has been holding under 20....then, when this Virus news hit the markets, it shot up to almost 80....and the stock markets went into the ditch in late February.  Recently, it has settled down to not much over 20.  It seems that the lower the VIX goes, the better the markets perform, and vice versa.


So what time frame is the VIX a predictor for....a week, a month, a quarter? How often do you check it?


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## Don M. (Nov 28, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> So what time frame is the VIX a predictor for....a week, a month, a quarter? How often do you check it?


The VIX generally looks forward about 30 days, with an estimate of where the markets are heading.  While there are NO sure ways to predict the stock market, I find the VIX better than most.  I check it daily....it appears at the top of the "Finance" option on Yahoo....along with the daily market returns, oil futures, gold/silver prices, foreign markets, etc.  Here's a good article on the VIX.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 28, 2020)

@Don M.  Thank you for this information.  Good to know. I've seen references to the VIX in financial articles. I use Yahoo Finance often so this is one more thing to do while on the site.


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