# The virus is still winning



## Becky1951 (Jan 4, 2021)

The virus is still winning

This simple chart shows why the new variants of the coronavirus — first detected in Britain and South Africa — are so worrisome:

The chart compares the spread of the virus in each of those two countries with the spread in a group of nearby countries. As you can see, cases have surged in Britain and South Africa since the variants first surfaced — while holding fairly steady in the rest of western Europe and southern Africa.

The new variants may not be the only reason. Britain and South Africa differ from their neighbors in other ways, as well. But there is no obvious explanation for the contrast besides the virus’s mutations.

This suggests the rest of the world may now be at risk of a new Covid-19 surge.

The variants already seem to have spread around much of the world. More than 30 other countries, including the U.S., have diagnosed cases with the variant first detected in Britain, which is known as B.1.1.7. Scientists say that it could soon become the dominant form of the virus.

The B.1.1.7 variant appears to be between 10 percent and 60 percent more transmissible than the original version. One possible reason: It may increase the amount of the virus that infected people carry in their noses and throats, which in turn would raise the likelihood that they infect others through breathing, talking, sneezing, coughing and so on.

As I’ve explained before, the biggest factor that will determine how many more people die from the virus isn’t likely to be the precise effectiveness of the vaccines or even the speed of their rollout. The biggest factor is instead likely to be how much we reduce the spread of the virus over the next few months, through a combination of mask wearing, social distancing and expanded testing. Those efforts can cut caseloads — and, by extension, deaths — more rapidly than a mass vaccination campaign can.

But the U.S. was struggling to hold down new infections even before the variants appeared, and they will probably make the job more difficult. “I dismissed the news initially because viruses mutate all the time and there have been too many baseless ‘mutant-ninja virus’ doomsaying headlines this year,” Zeynep Tufekci wrote in The Atlantic last week. “However, as data on the new variant roll in, there is cause for real concern.”

My colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, in a piece explaining what scientists do and don’t know about the variants, writes that they may end up “exacerbating an unrelenting rise in deaths and overwhelming the already strained health care system.”

In recent days, the number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 symptoms has risen to more than 123,000, up from about 95,000 a month ago and 50,000 two months ago. The virus is still winning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/briefing/trump-election-raffensperger-julian-assange-costume.html


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## Aunt Marg (Jan 4, 2021)

Thank you for the post, Becky.

Great insight.


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## tbeltrans (Jan 4, 2021)

Dammit!   

Tony


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## rgp (Jan 4, 2021)

So then if all the precautions are so effective ? Why then does it keep spreading ? 

And please do not say it is because people are not taking the precautions, just the other day a report heard on talk radio stated that it is believed some 70% or more of the worlds population are indeed following the precautionary advise.


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## terry123 (Jan 4, 2021)

They are not following precautions according to what I see on tv.  The beaches in Florida show all those people without masks and next to each other.  Right now we all need to stay home, only get out when necessary, keep washing hands and wear our masks.  My family and friends in Miami , Louisiana and Texas are doing these things and I am too.  We are still going to have the fall out from Christmas and New Years.  My family and I are talking on the phone and emailing almost daily.  We all agree that I will not fly to see them or visit the ones here in Clear Lake for the time being.


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## hollydolly (Jan 4, 2021)

We've just gone into Lockdown number 5 today!!... really an extension of lockdown 4.. with the addition of all schools closed including primaries and colleges... 

The PM in his address to the nation  this evening,  said that everyone has a 70 % more chance of catching  the new  variant of Coronavirus  ( which  incidentally we're told was first detected in South Africa not the UK)  than the first epidemic in the spring and summer of 2020


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## Rosemarie (Jan 4, 2021)

hollydolly said:


> We've just gone into Lockdown number 5 today!!... really an extension of lockdown 4.. with the addition of all schools closed including primaries and colleges...
> 
> The PM in his address to the nation  this evening,  said that everyone has a 70 % more chance of catching  the new  variant of Coronavirus  ( which  incidentally we're told was first detected in South Africa not the UK)  than the first epidemic in the spring and summer of 2020


There has been a spike in cases in the past 24 hours. This coincides with the schools breaking up for the Christmas holidays. Is there a connection, I wonder? Parents are only too happy for the children to play outside and children don't understand 'social distancing'. It only takes for one to be carrying the virus for it to be transferred and then taken home to the rest of the family.


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## Treacle (Jan 4, 2021)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55538937

Here we go again!!


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## IrisSenior (Jan 4, 2021)

What about all the people that traveled on planes over the Christmas and New Year's holidays. Hmmmmmm...cases will spike again!


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## hollydolly (Jan 4, 2021)

Rosemarie said:


> There has been a spike in cases in the past 24 hours. This coincides with the schools breaking up for the Christmas holidays. Is there a connection, I wonder? Parents are only too happy for the children to play outside and children don't understand 'social distancing'. It only takes for one to be carrying the virus for it to be transferred and then taken home to the rest of the family.


Precisely my point. The teachers union have said primary schools _must _close because the teachers could keep the children distanced in class, but they can't make them distance in the playground, therefore they could take the virus home .. ... so why has Boris and co decided it's perfectly safe for public playgrounds for children to stay open ? ...does the virus know the difference between a school playground and a public one ?


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## fmdog44 (Jan 4, 2021)

I signed up for the vaccine and got a response yesterday saying they will call. On NBC right now is a pic of cars lined up for a long way in Florida. People are parking, sleeping through the night in line to get the shot. I wonder how chaotic the second shot schedule will be. Some second rounds are already changed from the original schedule and no one knows what the impact of that will be. When asked Dr. Faucci said the schedule was based on science meaning in my opinion, is the science is out the window if the shots were not administered as scheduled. South Africa has a new/different strain different from the UK that was just announced on NBC..


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## Jeni (Jan 4, 2021)

Viruses and even bacteria mutate it is natural. Is anyone really surprised by this. 

We will be chasing these mutations forever and masks are not a good long term reality.  perhaps we need a new approach. Doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
I always see those whom say well X% are complying and doing it ............but ask yourself if you need to leave home how many are doing it correctly ? 
 I see masks everywhere pulled down under the nose then adjusted as people approach so the have been breathing items out on to the outside of mask and then if they talk they disperse those particles that are sitting on mask.

As has been shown when restrictions are lifted there seems to be surges. 
So  perhaps we should ask how long does a virus last.......i do not think we really know.  WE know very little often people are operating on best guesses. 

Did you see the photos of New Years celebration in Wuhan?    No masks .......nothing.   Anyone asking why China's numbers are not  more alarming? 
  Do we feel comfortable with other countries DATA .........................when often there have been issues of how cases/ deaths were counted.  

Without ever knowing for sure where it was picked up how long would an asymptomatic person be contagious?    2 weeks- 3 weeks  or 3-4 months ....... when do you start counting length of illness after a test ?  ...... how do you know if your test was  day  one into illness or day 20 since you first were exposed?

Does the fact some people as some get over or seem asymptomatic to disease and some people  it does a lot of damage..... who is studying why or what is the difference? 
Numerous US  colleges and universities did studies showing that perhaps as many as 10x number of people who are cases  found in testing ..........have or had the virus. 
If that is correct a huge portion should have already  had it .......maybe asymptomatic but had it. 

Early antibody tests were discounted as inaccurate and bad mouthed by some in medical field but I have not heard much about research or development into improved  antibody tests ...... If a person had virus with little or no symptoms and  now have natural antibodies why would they need a vaccine?   other then to just sell the vaccine.
The  purpose of vaccine is to trigger an immune response that MANY may have already had naturally.....

If I  take a test  today but interact with an infected person  tomorrow....... on the next day is the result of that test even valid? 
Yet we are doing that sort of testing every day ........some places have travel restrictions saying you need to  have a negative test .........but how many people could a person possibly be exposed to between  test and result.


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## win231 (Jan 4, 2021)

IrisSenior said:


> What about all the people that traveled on planes over the Christmas and New Year's holidays. Hmmmmmm...cases will spike again!


Well, people on planes all wear masks.  So do people in airports.  And they spray the planes with disinfectant after each flight.    So..........


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## hollydolly (Jan 4, 2021)

Today I had a CT scan... I was allowed to remove my clothes.. but I wasn't allowed to remove my mask ( although there was only one radiographer in the room who was masked up)... until I was literally on the scanner, and the donut was actually over my head and the n I was instructed to remove the mask..  then again in reverse when the scan was over and before I was permitted to get off the scanning bed.. i had to replace my mask


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## win231 (Jan 4, 2021)

Jeni said:


> Viruses and even bacteria mutate it is natural. Is anyone really surprised by this.
> 
> We will be chasing these mutations forever and masks are not a good long term reality.  perhaps we need a new approach. Doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
> I always see those whom say well X% are complying and doing it ............but ask yourself if you need to leave home how many are doing it correctly ?
> ...


That kind of clear thinking & logic will get you lots of criticism from the "Blame" crowd.  And that crowd has many frustrated members.


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## rgp (Jan 4, 2021)

terry123 said:


> They are not following precautions according to what I see on tv.  The beaches in Florida show all those people without masks and next to each other.  Right now we all need to stay home, only get out when necessary, keep washing hands and wear our masks.  My family and friends in Miami , Louisiana and Texas are doing these things and I am too.  We are still going to have the fall out from Christmas and New Years.  My family and I are talking on the phone and emailing almost daily.  We all agree that I will not fly to see them or visit the ones here in Clear Lake for the time being.




 Well, as per this 'expert' the reported 70 + % are indeed following the precautions, and that is sufficient enough to result in a turn around ? And yet it is not happening ?

As for the beach pictures, one was already proven a hoax, as it was discovered to be a video from a holiday weekend 2014 ??


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## win231 (Jan 4, 2021)

hollydolly said:


> Today I had a CT scan... I was allowed to remove my clothes.. but I wasn't allowed to remove my mask ( although there was only one radiographer in the room who was maksed up)... until I was literally on the scanner, and the donut was actually over my head and the n I was instructed to remove the mask..  then again in reverse when the scan was over and before I was permitted to get off the scanning bed.. i had to replace my mask


Yes, that's why I developed a valuable, life-saving protocol for safe eating.  The medical community was so impressed, they published it in several medical journals:

1.  Pull mask down below mouth.

2.  Take bite of food.

3.  Immediately pull mask up over nose

4.  Repeat


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## hollydolly (Jan 4, 2021)

win231 said:


> Yes, that's why I developed a valuable, life-saving protocol for safe eating.  The medical community was so impressed, they published it in several medical journals:
> 
> 1.  Pull mask down below mouth.
> 
> ...


here,  everyone is permitted to not wear a mask while eating or drinking ..but moving from the tabel to for example the toilets, or to the exit , the mask must go back on


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## Aunt Marg (Jan 4, 2021)

win231 said:


> Yes, that's why I developed a valuable, life-saving protocol for safe eating.  The medical community was so impressed, they published it in several medical journals:
> 
> 1.  Pull mask down below mouth.
> 
> ...


Oh, Win, I'm disappointed in you, you had everything right except for pulling the mask down below mouth.

If you pull the mask up and over your eyes, you won't be able to see all of the nasty looks everyone is giving you when you take a bite of your food.


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## win231 (Jan 4, 2021)

Aunt Marg said:


> Oh, Win, I'm disappointed in you, you had everything right except for pulling the mask down below mouth.
> 
> If you pull the mask up and over your eyes, you won't be able to see all of the nasty looks everyone is giving you when you take a bite of your food.


I've been OK with nasty looks ever since I left the house in a hurry & forgot to put anything on.


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## tbeltrans (Jan 4, 2021)

Aunt Marg said:


> Oh, Win, I'm disappointed in you, you had everything right except for pulling the mask down below mouth.
> 
> If you pull the mask up and over your eyes, you won't be able to see all of the nasty looks everyone is giving you when you take a bite of your food.


Funny you should mention that.  My wife and I were watching some movie on Amazon Prime the other day in which a couple decided they weren't going to see each other anymore.  We decided that if we ever got to that point, we would wear our masks over our eyes.  So even when COVID-19 is only a memory (assuming that really does happen someday), our masks may come in handy.   

Tony


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## terry123 (Jan 4, 2021)

The beach report I got today was from my brother in Miami.  He and his wife just drove around the beaches and observed no masks, and people arm and arm together.  They were very upset about it.  

Had a birthday call from a good friend of my daughter's the other day. She is a pharmacist with one of the Baylor Hospitals in Dallas.  She said half of their hospital is filled with covid 19 patients and they are trying to keep the other half for surgeries, etc not connected to the covid.  She worked Christmas Eve, Christmas day, New Years Eve and New Years Day as the need is so great at her hospital!  She and my daughter are both pharmacists, with my daughter working retail at CVS and Karen working at hospitals.  Karen said their doctors were trying to fill scripts for the covid from the hospital to patients so they could keep some beds for other patients.


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## terry123 (Jan 4, 2021)

I had emailed my doctor about the vaccine and I got an email back saying that as soon as they get their supply they would email me to come in.  I had tried the hot line number for Houston to get an appt but it had crashed due to so many people trying to call. So thats why I emailed my family doctor.  When they tell me to come in , I will be there.  Whatever it takes to help me and my loved ones get through this. But I imagine I will be wearing the mask, etc for a long, long time.  Its fine with me!


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## grahamg (Jan 4, 2021)

win231 said:


> I've been OK with nasty looks ever since I left the house in a hurry & forgot to put anything on.


Were you okay with those laughing too?


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## win231 (Jan 4, 2021)

grahamg said:


> Were you okay with those laughing too?


Yes.  I laughed more than they did.


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## Tish (Jan 4, 2021)

Damn! I have no idea what is going on over here.
First, they are reporting that they have found a new strain of the virus from Africa that is even more contagious than the original.
Then they kill that story by not mentioning it again, yet today I saw the dreaded Testing Tent outside our small country Hospital.
Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, the hoarding of Toilet Paper and hand sanitizer is at full speed again.


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## win231 (Jan 4, 2021)

Tish said:


> Damn! I have no idea what is going on over here.
> First, they are reporting that they have found a new strain of the virus from Africa that is even more contagious than the original.
> Then they kill that story by not mentioning it again, yet today I saw the dreaded Testing Tent outside our small country Hospital.
> Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, the hoarding of Toilet Paper and hand sanitizer is at full speed again.


There are more new strains from India, The Virgin Islands, Saturn, & Pluto.


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## grahamg (Jan 4, 2021)

win231 said:


> Yes.  I laughed more than they did.


Ah, but they couldn't see you laughing with your mask on I suspect(?)!


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## Phoenix (Jan 4, 2021)

It will remain out of control until people take it seriously and are more careful all the time.


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## grahamg (Jan 4, 2021)

Becky1951 said:


> View attachment 143163
> 
> The virus is still winning
> 
> ...


"You could say this virus is a bit of a bully!".


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## Lakeland living (Jan 4, 2021)

I figure I am lucky to live where I live. No close neighbors and most of them gone or going within a few days. They don't like the cold up here at this time of year. 
     Today over 3000 new cases in Toronto in one day,  with 6 of them having just come from the UK. Yes all 6 were infected with the UK new virus.   
     A good reason to stay out of the cities, any city.  1 more trip into town then I intend to hibernate till mid Feb.


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## Lakeland living (Jan 4, 2021)

Good timing for me, love this time of the year....


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## grahamg (Jan 4, 2021)

Is the virus "winning" in the sense that it is doing anything unexpected, or is it doing exactly what those experts charged with the responsibility of advising our UK government back in 2016 said would be the case, i.e. a global pandemic such as this one could not be stopped, and all we're able to do is slow its spread?


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## MickaC (Jan 4, 2021)

IrisSenior said:


> What about all the people that traveled on planes over the Christmas and New Year's holidays. Hmmmmmm...cases will spike again!


They already have.......priorities and safety don't seem to be on their lists.


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## Aunt Marg (Jan 4, 2021)

MickaC said:


> They already have.......priorities and safety don't seem to be on their lists.


Good news is, Micka, heads rolled here in Canada over such travel!

I have a smile from ear-to-ear over it!


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## Warrigal (Jan 4, 2021)

Australian states are battling new COVID spot fires. NSW, the main gateway to Australia is flat out tracking clusters and ramping up restrictions to limit the possibility of transmission. The Premier has been reluctant to make masks mandatory but has finally given in, requiring them to be worn in indoor locations and public transport, with a $200 fine for failing to do so.  The state borders have been closed to all but the most necessary transit and stay home orders for hot spots are in effect.

The Sth African strain has appeared in Western Australia and the UK one is active in the eastern states. COVID tests and contact tracing is on overdrive right now.

January is annual Summer vacation season and all of the schools and universities are closed. People are travelling out from the cities to holiday destinations and there is greater risk for the regions and coastal beaches.

Complacency is 'Rona's best friend, but with everyone thinking clearly about all of the ways that we can prevent, or at least limit the transfer of virus from one to another, we should be able to beat it back down until  mass vaccination can take effect. Australia's vaccination roll out is not scheduled to begin before the end of February so it is vitally important that we stay COVID safe until then, and beyond.


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## Rosemarie (Jan 5, 2021)

We are into January now and there has been no mention of the 'flu. This would seem to indicate that wearing a mask is protecting people from 'flu but not the virus.


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## hollydolly (Jan 5, 2021)

Warrigal said:


> Australian states are battling new COVID spot fires. NSW, the main gateway to Australia is flat out tracking clusters and ramping up restrictions to limit the possibility of transmission. The Premier has been reluctant to make masks mandatory but has finally given in, requiring them to be worn in indoor locations and public transport, with a $200 fine for failing to do so.  The state borders have been closed to all but the most necessary transit and stay home orders for hot spots are in effect.
> 
> The Sth African strain has appeared in Western Australia and the UK one is active in the eastern states. COVID tests and contact tracing is on overdrive right now.
> 
> *January is annual Summer vacation season and all of the schools and universities are closed. People are travelling out from the cities to holiday destinations and there is greater risk for the regions and coastal beaches.*


No-one is permitted here to take a holiday or to visit a second home even within this country, or in fact to travel outside of our own areas..


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## grahamg (Jan 5, 2021)

Rosemarie said:


> We are into January now and there has been no mention of the 'flu. This would seem to indicate that wearing a mask is protecting people from 'flu but not the virus.


It could be assumed to mean what you've suggested, or it could be connected to both the measures taken to try to control Covid, and aided by the "normal flu vaccine", but I doubt normal flu will have gone away completely.

My feelings as to the potential ways of protecting oneself from Covid 19 include all those measures we're being advised to take, "as far as its possible", but also trying to keep your immune system as robust as you can, though we're not entirely in charge of that obviously, (staying cheerful may help though!    ).


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## Rosemarie (Jan 5, 2021)

grahamg said:


> It could be assumed to mean what you've suggested, or it could be connected to both the measures taken to try to control Covid, and aided by the "normal flu vaccine", but I doubt normal flu will have gone away completely.
> 
> My feelings as to the potential ways of protecting oneself from Covid 19 include all those measures we're being advised to take, "as far as its possible", but also trying to keep your immune system as robust as you can, though we're not entirely in charge of that obviously, (staying cheerful may help though!    ).


I do wonder about that. How much does your disposition affect illness? However, that's another subject....


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## Lakeland living (Jan 5, 2021)

We have been in this for a year now, doom and gloom won't help. Enjoying what you do have and being cheerful won't hurt, I find it helps me.
However have run into a few people that thought being happy and enjoying what there is was wrong. THOSE I did not understand...


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## Lewkat (Jan 5, 2021)

I am getting the vaccine later this week.  If I refuse it, there will be restrictions placed on me.  Just what they are, was not explained.  The idea of this really ticks me off beyond belief.  I have serious allergies and am taking a chance, but get it I will just as I have with all the other vaccinations I've had in my lifetime.  It is the principle of the thing that aggravates me.


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## MickaC (Jan 5, 2021)

We are still on complete lockdown.
Not complaining.......we have to continue this way.
No visits as a whole, limiting contacts, curbside shopping, online shopping will be in place at least till end of March.
Masks @ 500% required.
We'll keep on trucking........stay safe and well everyone.


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## MickaC (Jan 5, 2021)

Lewkat said:


> I am getting the vaccine later this week.  If I refuse it, there will be restrictions placed on me.  Just what they are, was not explained.  The idea of this really ticks me off beyond belief.  I have serious allergies and am taking a chance, but get it I will just as I have with all the other vaccinations I've had in my lifetime.  It is the principle of the thing that aggravates me.


Lewkat........may i ask how you were contacted about your vaccination date.


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## MickaC (Jan 5, 2021)

Not sure if my post belongs here, but here goes.
I try to watch all media to keep up with Covid.
I have some questions that i'm waiting on answers for.
Maybe some of you have answers.
I understand the priority including health workers in all fields.......80 and over......care homes.......those at high risks due to health issues.
But.......
How is a person notified.......i've not yet heard about where children are placed.....including babies up to 18 years old.
With so many small towns, as is in all parts of the countries, does the vaccine come to the towns.
Large cities in the province, have been set up with site locations.......
I hope they don't expect travel on our part........is it a good idea to drive long distance after the shot.......many are not able to travel.......
Do they expect us to carpool outside of ours towns, with anyone we haven't had contact with in the last 10 months, masks are doable......but the social distance is not.
Any inputs from any of you.
Thank you.


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## Aneeda72 (Jan 5, 2021)

rgp said:


> So then if all the precautions are so effective ? Why then does it keep spreading ?
> 
> And please do not say it is because people are not taking the precautions, just the other day a report heard on talk radio stated that it is believed some 70% or more of the worlds population are indeed following the precautionary advise.


Los Angeles, California take a good look @rpg soon the entire country may be the same.  As paramedics make life and death decisions on who they will take to the hospital and who will be left to die in the street from a car accident, at the mall from a widow maker heart attack, a child drowning at home, and, of course, drowning from COVID 19.

*Take a good look @rgp.  It’s no longer just about the virus.*


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## win231 (Jan 5, 2021)

Rosemarie said:


> We are into January now and there has been no mention of the 'flu. This would seem to indicate that wearing a mask is protecting people from 'flu but not the virus.


LOL.  That's what it indicates - if that's what you _want _it to indicate.


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## IrisSenior (Jan 5, 2021)

win231 said:


> Well, people on planes all wear masks.  So do people in airports.  And they spray the planes with disinfectant after each flight.    So..........


Ya right...but how many keep their masks on the whole flight? Same for the airports. Sure they disinfect but it only takes one person who is infected to touch something and... 

NO ONE should be flying and all borders should be closed.


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## win231 (Jan 5, 2021)

IrisSenior said:


> Ya right...but how many keep their masks on the whole flight? Same for the airports. Sure they disinfect but it only takes one person who is infected to touch something and...
> 
> NO ONE should be flying and all borders should be closed.


I remember a news piece a few months ago when the airlines were trying to erase fears & get people to fly.  They showed a guy spraying all the seats with some type of disinfectant.  The reporter showed the video to a doctor & asked him if that would protect passengers.
The doctor said, "Yes - until people get on the plane & sit in those seats."


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