# Buying stocks now?   3/17/2020



## AnnieA (Mar 17, 2020)

Have never bought single stocks before so am wondering about buying low now.  Have been looking at cruise line stocks etc. 

Any stock market gurus have advice for those of us who want to buy low but are lacking in knowledge?


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

I would not recommend you blindly buy stocks ..go buy a diversified index fund unless you know how to evaluate financials


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## AnnieA (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> I would not recommend you blindly buy stocks ..go buy a diversified index fund unless you know how to evaluate financials



I have mutual funds already and am not touching those right now.  The question was about buying single stocks while they're currently low.  I'm not stupid and can learn.  This is not astrophysics or neurosurgery.  I have two master's degrees ...just not in finance.  I also have time on my hands for learning more these days. 

I asked a specific question.  If you don't have the time or ability to answer that question in a meaningful way or point to meaningful resources about purchasing single stocks,  please refrain from answering me.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

AnnieA said:


> I'm not stupid and can learn.  This is not astrophysics or neurosurgery.  I have two master's degrees ...just not in finance.  I also have time on my hands for learning more these days.
> 
> I asked a specific question.  If you don't have the time or ability to answer that question in a meaningful way or point to meaningful resources about purchasing single stocks,  please refrain from answering me.


If you have the ability to analyze financials why you asking ?  You told us you have zero experience with stocks ...buying individual stocks is not for beginners no matter what tip anyone gives you.

Do what you want .......


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## AnnieA (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> If you have the ability to analyze financials why you asking ?  You told us you have zero experience with stocks ...buying individual stocks is not for beginners no matter what tip anyone gives you.
> 
> Do what you want .......



I have mutual funds.  And your arrogance is laughable.  If no beginner ever bought individual stocks, then no one would own them.


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## Catlady (Mar 17, 2020)

AnnieA said:


> I have mutual funds already and am not touching those right now.  The question was about buying single stocks while they're currently low.  I'm not stupid and can learn.  This is not astrophysics or neurosurgery.  I have two master's degrees ...just not in finance.  I also have time on my hands for learning more these days.
> 
> I asked a specific question.  If you don't have the time or ability to answer that question in a meaningful way or point to meaningful resources about purchasing single stocks,  please refrain from answering me.



Annie, don't buy now.  If we are starting a recession now, it will be a while before the stocks hit their all-time lows.  ALL stocks are going down now regardless, but the ones impacted by the need not to travel or be with crowds will of course suffer the most.  Airlines, cruises, restaurants etc.  I have a list of stocks I want to buy and/or add to at Yahoo Finance and like to buy them at 52 week lows or 50% off their 52 week highs.  In cases like now with an imploding market, I even find out what is their 5 year low and aim for that if possible.

I have made plenty of mistakes and have had a few good winners, you can do it.  Since I have very little money to invest I only buy a few shares at a time, as low as 5 shares for expensive stocks like TSLA.  That also minimizes my loss if I've made a mistake or bought too high.  If I like the stocks I'll buy some more.  Stocks are riskier than mutual funds and ETFs, but they also go up (and down) a lot more than funds.  If I like a sector I also buy an ETF for that sector.


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## rkunsaw (Mar 17, 2020)

I'll tell you what I like if you won't blame me if it doesn't do well. 
*Ford (F)* is around $5 a share right now and pays good dividends.
*AT&T (T)* also pays good dividends
*Lockheed Martin (LMT*) has lost $160 per share and I think it will gain it back whenever the market recovers

There are a lot of bargains out there right now. I've spent just about all my cash now or I'd buy more.


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## Catlady (Mar 17, 2020)

rkunsaw said:


> I'll tell you what I like if you won't blame me if it doesn't do well.
> *Ford (F)* is around $5 a share right now and pays good dividends.
> *AT&T (T)* also pays good dividends
> *Lockheed Martin (LMT*) has lost $160 per share and I think it will gain it back whenever the market recovers
> ...


I have a few shares of Ford, and would like to buy more for its dividend.  It's at $5 now and I initially bought it $11.  BUT, I've heard it has a lot of debt and ''might'' go bankrupt.  It's an old company and been around a long time, but so was Sears.  So, I don't know if I will spring for more.  LMT is in defense and the way things are going right now, that might be a good defensive stock to own and so is BA, more than 60% off its high.  And they both pay good dividends.  Wish I had money to buy them both.  Sigh!


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## fmdog44 (Mar 17, 2020)

AnnieA said:


> Have never bought single stocks before so am wondering about buying low now.  Have been looking at cruise line stocks etc.
> 
> Any stock market gurus have advice for those of us who want to buy low but are lacking in knowledge?


If you are a senior I would hold off buying anything for the next several months. The last stock I would but is a cruise line stock now or forever. If you have no learning about buying stocks then don't unless you are prepared to lose 100% of your investment.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

Never buy stocks for a dividend , you buy them for total return and both of those stocks suck .. a dividend does not make a bad stock better


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## fmdog44 (Mar 17, 2020)

AnnieA said:


> I have mutual funds already and am not touching those right now.  The question was about buying single stocks while they're currently low.  I'm not stupid and can learn.  This is not astrophysics or neurosurgery.  I have two master's degrees ...just not in finance.  I also have time on my hands for learning more these days.
> 
> I asked a specific question.  If you don't have the time or ability to answer that question in a meaningful way or point to meaningful resources about purchasing single stocks,  please refrain from answering me.


You cannot lose money in astrophysics and neurosurgery and by now you know you can lose in mutual funds.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> If you are a senior I would hold off buying anything for the next several months. The last stock I would but is a cruise line stock now or forever. If you have no learning about buying stocks then don't unless you are prepared to lose 100% of your investment.


They know  better  they said  ,they made that clear ...I wouldn’t waste my time warning them about their inexperience..just let them do as they want themselves .....I want no part of answering them


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## Catlady (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Never buy stocks for a dividend , you buy them for total return and both of those stocks suck .. a dividend does not make a bad stock better



I look at it this way.  Stocks that pay dividends fill up my cash position in my account and enable me to buy other stocks.  I have very limited income and can seldom add to that cash.  Also, the dividends that stock pays will eventually erase the money I paid to buy the stock in the first place.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

Catlady said:


> I look at it this way.  Stocks that pay dividends fill up my cash position in my account and enable me to buy other stocks.  I have very limited income and can seldom add to that cash.  Also, the dividends that stock pays will eventually erase the money I paid to buy the stock in the first place.


...... every payment is a withdrawal off the share price the same as if you pulled the same money out of a portfolio of non div payers yourself .....we hope the share appreciation replaces what we pulled out in both cases ...it is only about the total return ....

a stock paying a dividend in a down market just slides that much farther down in price since not only is every payment automatically subtracted off the price but market action downward adds to it .....Everything you have gained or lost is already reflected in the share price when it is paid out ....they just subtract it off your balance left and give you the payment.....

Then the process starts over again .....dividends are not profits ...they are just money the board agrees to subtract off the share price and hand you back ..all gains and losses have already been reflect in the share price prior to the payout ....all further compounding is now on the
lower balance going forward


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## oldmontana (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> ...... every payment is a withdrawal off the share price the same as if you pulled the same money out of a portfolio of non div payers yourself .....we hope the share appreciation replaces what we pulled out in both cases ...it is only about the total return ....
> 
> a stock paying a dividend in a down market just slides that much farther down in price since not only is every payment automatically subtracted off the price but market action downward adds to it .....Everything you have gained or lost is already reflected in the share price when it is paid out ....they just subtract it off your balance left and give you the payment.....
> 
> ...


Dividends are paid from profits.  You keep giving the impression that dividends will reduce the price of a stock.  That is true when a stock is x-dividend but over time a good stock will keep going up...if you do not know that you need to do your home work before you give advise!

*Stock Price on Ex*-*Dividend Date
Stock* market specialists will mark down the *price* of a *stock* on its *ex*-*dividend date* by the amount of the *dividend*. For example, if a *stock* trades at $50 per share and pays out a $0.25 quarterly *dividend*, the *stock* will be marked down to open at $49.75 per share.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> Dividends are paid from profits.  You keep giving the impression that dividends will reduce the price of a stock.  That is true when a stock is x-dividend but over time a good stock will keep going up...if you do not know that you need to do your home work before you give advise!
> 
> *Stock Price on Ex*-*Dividend Date
> Stock* market specialists will mark down the *price* of a *stock* on its *ex*-*dividend date* by the amount of the *dividend*. For example, if a *stock* trades at $50 per share and pays out a $0.25 quarterly *dividend*, the *stock* will be marked down to open at $49.75 per share.


You are clueless ......companies pay dividends profit or not...just look at oxy.....they are bleeding red and paying dividends ..you really should stop arguing until you learn at least what your try to argue about.. all gains and losses are reflected in the share  price prior to going ex div ...the div is paid regardless if they make money or the stock is up or down until the board decides otherwise.

I really have to stop wasting my time conversing with you ...you are not interested in learning and just keep going on believing your own bull sH*t


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

For others who want to learn .

where does the money for dividends come from ?

the company can still pay dividends even if they aren't making a profit.

1) If the firm has been around, it might have made profits in the past years, which it might be still carrying (check for retained earnings in the financial statements).

2) Some firms in the past have had taken up debt to return the money to shareholders as dividends. I owned a reit once that took the money they were supposed to buy more properties with and instead propped up a 6% dividend with that money plus borrowed money .

on the surface they paid a great dividend ...the company ended up a dog .

3) It might sell a part of it's assets and return some money as a dividend 

4) They might be bought by some other firm, which returns cash to shareholders to keep them happy.

And most importantly

5). They may be losing money hand over fist like ge or oxy ...no profits at all in years ...yet the board continues to pay out a dividend ,even a cut one just so invest won’t lose confidence and dump the stock hurting it even more

It pays to keep an eye on the financial statements of the company to check how much liquid money they might be carrying around to pay shareholders as dividends. As well as stock performance is key ...if the total return sucks the stock sucks


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## oldmontana (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> You are clueless ......companies pay dividends profit or not...just look at oxy.....they are bleeding red and paying dividends ..you really should stop arguing until you learn at least what your try to argue about.. all gains and losses are reflected in the share  price prior to going ex div ...the div is paid regardless if they make money or the stock is up or down until the board decides otherwise.
> 
> I really have to stop wasting my time conversing with you ...you are not interested in learning and just keep going on believing your own bull sH*t


"I really have to stop wasting my time conversing with you ...you are not interested in learning and just keep going on believing your own bull sH*t"

Name calling is very telling ABOUT YOU AS A PERSON.


Its up to you...if you can not accept another's  opinion or advise as its not the same as your "know it all " advise so be it!


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> "I really have to stop wasting my time conversing with you ...you are not interested in learning and just keep going on believing your own bull sH*t"
> 
> Name calling is very telling ABOUT YOU AS A PERSON.
> 
> ...


That is not name calling ,that is exactly what one does when they refuse  to learn and just want to keep going on believing what they think they know that ain’t so..

they just keep repeating the same Misinformation over and over ...that is not name calling ...that is believing ones own bull..

i already listed where dividend money  can come from and it does not have to be profits ....


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## C'est Moi (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> They know  better  they said  ,they made that clear ...I wouldn’t waste my time warning them about their inexperience..just let them do as they want themselves .....I want no part of answering them


Then why do you keep posting in her thread??


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

C'est Moi said:


> Then why do you keep posting in her thread??


Because someone else said the same thing and I hate to see them waste their time too ....

why do you care ...you seem to complain about what i post frequently yet you still read them ...why?


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## C'est Moi (Mar 17, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Because someone else said the same thing and I hate to see them waste their time too ....
> 
> why do you care ...you seem to complain about what i post frequently yet you still read them ...why?


You always post in the financial threads with your pompous overbearing replies like the rest of us don't know how to manage our investments.   You are mean spirited and don't really want to help anyone; you just want to appear to be an "expert."     

And I won't be seeing your posts any longer.   Bye now.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

C'est Moi said:


> You always post in the financial threads with your pompous overbearing replies like the rest of us don't know how to manage our investments.   You are mean spirited and don't really want to help anyone; you just want to appear to be an "expert."
> 
> And I won't be seeing your posts any longer.   Bye now.


Great .....bye


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## Pepper (Mar 17, 2020)

@mathjak107 
I find you very knowledgeable.  Did you work on Wall St.?


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

Pepper said:


> @mathjak107
> I find you very knowledgeable.  Did you work on Wall St.?


Nope never .... I just made it a point to learn as much as I could from the best of breed ....the likes of the greatest financial minds we have and no these guys don’t predict markets or stocks .

They are the top researchers in financial planning ,retirement research and busting the myths and misinformation people parrot from other uninformed people .

I have followed the works and research of the likes of

Michael kitces , Blanchett , milevsky,  dr Wade pfau to name a few and I bring their studies ,thoughts and ideas to these forums ...

as you see many just go on an on believing their own bull without ever learning that what they think they know ain’t really so


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## Pepper (Mar 17, 2020)

My dad's friend, & stockbroker was Muriel Siebert, a name you might remember from the bygone years.

Before he died my dad lamented (for the zillionith time), not taking her up on Xerox.


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## Robert59 (Mar 17, 2020)

Looking at these stocks now, MRNA, JNJ, GSK, GILEAD.


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## Catlady (Mar 17, 2020)

I want to buy AVAV, SQ, NVDA, DIS, LUV, plus etfs ITA, QQQ, and SPY.  My ''appetite'' is bigger than my ''larder''.  LOL


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## AnnieA (Mar 17, 2020)

"Ignore" cleans a thread up nicely.   Sometimes it's hard to 'hear' even excellent content due the static of arrogance. 

Thanks to all who are responding in a teachable manner.  I value your experiences and good communication skills.


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## oldmontana (Mar 17, 2020)

rkunsaw said:


> I'll tell you what I like if you won't blame me if it doesn't do well.
> *Ford (F)* is around $5 a share right now and pays good dividends.
> *AT&T (T)* also pays good dividends
> *Lockheed Martin (LMT*) has lost $160 per share and I think it will gain it back whenever the market recovers
> ...


I like Ford at $5 with earning for 2019 @ 1.19,  2020 estimated at .92 cents , 2021 @ 1.15 they should continue to pay their 50 cent dividend.

I also own and like AT&T.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 17, 2020)

including  ALL DIVIDENDS  ford  has not made money for investors in 15 years  unless you were so good at timing a buy and sell as a trader that you found a window of opportunity to make a profit because investors sure made no money .

they had an average total return of minus 44% ytd

average of minus  33.45% over the one year

average of minus 17.77 the last 3 years

average of minus 3.86% the last 5 years

average of minus 3.86% the last 10 years

average of  minus .87 % the last 15 years

does that sound like a good stock to anyone here ? And that includes all dividends paid ...it was an awful investment over any time frame the last 15 years ....


ON THE OTHER HAND  a simple s&p 500 fund returned

an average of minus 21% ytd

an average of minus 8.13 over the one year

an average plus 4.30 over the 3 year

an average plus 6.28 over the 5 year

an average of 9.71 over the 10 year

an average of 7% over the 15 year ....

WHICH WOULD YOU WANT TO OWN .

Do you really think ford is magically going to do something it hasn’t been able to do in 15 years , like make money and provide a decent return for taking on not only market risk but individual company risk too.

I would call it a speculation more than an investment.


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## WhatInThe (Mar 18, 2020)

My opinion only. The problem with Ford and some other car companies is that they want a share of the electric car market. But in my opinion that will always be a niche market for several reasons. The power outages after a catastrophe are perfect example of why an electric car that needs charging is not something one wants to own and maintain. Throw in cheap oil & gas along more efficient engines people don't have reason to upgrade/buy an electric car. This R & D and production also takes away from keeping other models and/or keeping the price down on them. Along with the fact some that feel the car loan sector will be the next bubble to burst.

And not be conspiratorial but there are rumors Ford might have cooked their books after the crash of 08 to make it seem like they were the only major car manufacture that didn't need a bailout which helped sales for a while. So if they have been traveling on shakey books for a decade sooner or later the numbers will have no place to hide.


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## fmdog44 (Mar 18, 2020)

It is pretty much a foregone conclusion a recession is coming. Job losses could be as much as two million. The corona virus is yet to impact us in it's full capacity and hospitals are all saying they don't have the beds and respirators to handle the coming wave of patients. Over and over it was said yesterday doctors may very well decide who will live and who will die for the lack of equipment to treat all. It is going to get much, much worse before it gets better. I will not buy anything on Wall St. at any time in the near future.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> It is pretty much a foregone conclusion a recession is coming. Job losses could be as much as two million. The corona virus is yet to impact us in it's full capacity and hospitals are all saying they don't have the beds and respirators to handle the coming wave of patients. Over and over it was said yesterday doctors may very well decide who will live and who will die for the lack of equipment to treat all. It is going to get much, much worse before it gets better. I will not buy anything on Wall St. at any time in the near future.


only  buys i made the last week  were long term treasuries after the 10% drop the last 2 days and gold which i think eventually may do very well ...right now the dollar is holding up strong but that could reverse sending gold soaring .....


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## Red Cinders (Mar 18, 2020)

Annie, I'm about the farthest you could find from being a stock guru, but I do have a few shares of different companies.  As Catlady warned, be careful right now.  Although I expect there will be government help for many companies, some may still go bankrupt.  At that point, there may be little to nothing left for shareholders.  

I'd be looking at companies with a lot of cash reserves to be able to ride this out.  I'd also buy only a small amount at a time.  Be prepared to see the value of what you've just bought to drop drastically.

I like to choose a very low price that I want to pay and put in a limit order for the stock for that amount.  It might never hit but if it does, I know I'm getting the stock for the price I feel comfortable paying. 

Although I have bought stocks for companies with products/services I don't use, I prefer to buy companies I'm familiar with.  It's likely a comfort factor thing.  Just today I was in Walgreens picking up a few food items because the grocery stores had huge lines, and it crossed my mind that I was supporting a company where I owned a little stock.  I like that.

The stock market is like the wild west right now, so be careful.  As strange as this sounds, have fun with it if you can.  I'm likely an oddball, but I find it exciting finding out all I can about a stock then putting in a order with hopes it will drop to my price.


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## Catlady (Mar 18, 2020)

Haha @Red Cinders, I'm exactly like you, I love bear markets!

I've been wanting to buy BA for a long time but couldn't afford it at $400.  This morning I bought a few shares at $100 and it promptly went down to $90.  Oh well, I have to remind myself that I bought it on sale at 75% off.  LOL

The great Peter Lynch always said to buy what you use and like.  I don't always do that but I like his philosophy (re your Walgreens).


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

Catlady said:


> Haha @Red Cinders, I'm exactly like you, I love bear markets!
> 
> I've been wanting to buy BA for a long time but couldn't afford it at $400.  This morning I bought a few shares at $100 and it promptly went down to $90.  Oh well, I have to remind myself that I bought it on sale at 75% off.  LOL
> 
> The great Peter Lynch always said to buy what you use and like.  I don't always do that but I like his philosophy (re your Walgreens).


Peter Lynch was never a fund manager long enough to see what was wrong with his logic about buy only what you understand off in the future ..in fact Peter retired  from fidelity even before he ever went through a recession...

We all understood sears , Ford , jc penny , xerox , Polaroid, we understood film and Kodak ....

We understood kraft and Heinz and who didn’t understand General Motors . We all knew blockbuster  and oil companies too .. technology we did not understand even took what was scarce like oil and made it abundant...we are drowning in oil today .

Well technology which we did not understand totally obsoleted many ways of doing things , healthier eating killed many food companies of old and the new disrupters no one understood changed the way we all shop .

So I don’t think the stick to what you know worked out to well in the long run ...in fact except for Apple most of us never heard of all the great companies today that dominate the s&p 500 nor did we understand them  in their early days


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## JimBob1952 (Mar 18, 2020)

AnnieA said:


> Have never bought single stocks before so am wondering about buying low now.  Have been looking at cruise line stocks etc.
> 
> Any stock market gurus have advice for those of us who want to buy low but are lacking in knowledge?



I would steer clear of troubled sectors like cruise lines, airlines, restaurants and casinos.  Too much uncertainty.   

There are blue-chip bargains like JP Morgan and Pfizer, but...

I think there are going to be further price drops.  

We are holding onto our cash now because we might need it in the near term (next two years).

If you think prices can't get much lower, I recall Microsoft selling for about $17 in 2009.  It was at $58 in 2000, then went to $17, then to $170.  Now it's at $136.  What is the "right" price for this great company?


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

JimBob1952 said:


> I would steer clear of troubled sectors like cruise lines, airlines, restaurants and casinos.  Too much uncertainty.
> 
> There are blue-chip bargains like JP Morgan and Pfizer, but...
> 
> ...


Markets have no memory ...the value is only what someone is willing to pay at that moment.
 ....stocks are priced by greed ,fear and perception, not memory of what they once were.

The failed company graveyard is filled with once high flying stocks that never went back to what they once were


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## OneEyedDiva (Mar 18, 2020)

The two stocks I own (in small quantities) Facebook and Apple are still doing very well despite the major market dives but I wouldn't buy anymore private stocks at my age. I have to agree with Mathjak on this one.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> The two stocks I own (in small quantities) Facebook and Apple are still doing very well despite the major market dives but I wouldn't buy anymore private stocks at my age. I have to agree with Mathjak on this one.


This is why I tend to try to dispel the hype , old wives tales , mantras and myth that floats out there ....much of it has been proven to sound great but ultimately really not true in practice


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## Catlady (Mar 18, 2020)

JimBob1952 said:


> If you think prices can't get much lower,* I recall Microsoft selling for about $17 in 2009*.  It was at $58 in 2000, then went to $17, then to $170.  Now it's at $136.  What is the "right" price for this great company?



That's why I like to look at the *high/low prices in 5 years*, that gives me an idea how low I want to buy (or how high to sell?). Would be nice to buy now at the 2008 prices, but I like to be reasonable. And, yeah, I remember MSFT and INTC at $16 each, and after Nadella became CEO of MSFT it went up to $190 and Intel languished at $69. They are ALL down now because of the virus, so nobody's fault.


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## JimBob1952 (Mar 18, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Markets have no memory ...the value is only what someone is willing to pay at that moment.
> ....stocks are priced by greed ,fear and perception, not memory of what they once were.
> 
> The failed company graveyard is filled with once high flying stocks that never went back to what they once were


Well, yeah.  I've owned a few in my time, and probably own some now.


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## JimBob1952 (Mar 18, 2020)

AnnieA said:


> I have mutual funds already and am not touching those right now.  The question was about buying single stocks while they're currently low.  I'm not stupid and can learn.  This is not astrophysics or neurosurgery.  I have two master's degrees ...just not in finance.  I also have time on my hands for learning more these days.
> 
> I asked a specific question.  If you don't have the time or ability to answer that question in a meaningful way or point to meaningful resources about purchasing single stocks,  please refrain from answering me.



The problem is that it's not astrophysics or neosurgery.  It's not a science.  You can learn the basics pretty quickly, but the market is subject to irrational swings.  And now it's subject to crazy moves from algorithmic trading and bots.  Experienced professionals routinely lose their shirts. 

Mathjak isn't going to win any prizes for charm, but he has done his homework and his outlook is sound. 

I, on the other hand, have not done my homework.  But I am charming as all get-out.


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## jerry old (Mar 18, 2020)

quit it


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## Red Cinders (Mar 18, 2020)

Catlady said:


> Haha @Red Cinders, I'm exactly like you, I love bear markets!
> 
> I've been wanting to buy BA for a long time but couldn't afford it at $400.  This morning I bought a few shares at $100 and it promptly went down to $90.  Oh well, I have to remind myself that I bought it on sale at 75% off.  LOL
> 
> The great Peter Lynch always said to buy what you use and like.  I don't always do that but I like his philosophy (re your Walgreens).



Catlady, who would have thought that Boeing would go this low?  They have some hurdles to get over, but I would bet they are too big and important for the government to let them go down in flames.  I will say that I'm not brave enough to go after BA right now, but those who are will probably reap the rewards over the coming years.  I'm a little too conservative in my acquisitions.  With Walgreens, I put in a very low order.  Last year they missed estimates and dropped big, and I was able to get in at a price that was lower than what it closed for today.


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## Catlady (Mar 18, 2020)

@Red Cinders = Yeah, I'm different that way, I like volatile stocks, gets my adrenaline going.  LOL  Not all of my stocks are high-flyers, I do own some conservative ones but mainly for their dividends.  They are boring.

I like BA because I like futuristic stocks and they're involved in not only defense and planes, but also in drones and space stuff.  I never thought I'd be able to own them and even 5 shares is good enough for me for the ''one foot in the door'' pleasure.  Hopefully I can buy more at $80 if it goes down that low.  I admit I may be more of a gambler than an investor, but I'm having fun. 

 According to most, at my age, 77, I shouldn't even be in individual stocks because I have "one foot in the grave and one on a banana peel".   But, I enjoy doing it and I don't have a lot of hobbies.  When I kick the bucket my daughter can enjoy the spoils, her name is in my account as heir.  It won't go to waste.


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## Red Cinders (Mar 18, 2020)

When Mathjak was talking about the less-than-optimal method of buying only what you know, it brought home the point that successful investors have to be open to new things.  Even Warren Buffett was reluctant to invest in technology for years, though I doubt he is kept up at night over any lost gains.  This is why having a good professionally run fund is important.  Fund managers are (or should be) up on the latest and greatest.  Even index funds have a little of everything giving us fully-rounded exposure.  For those of us who also have a few stocks just because we want them, hopefully we're able to make a little money and not lose our shirts.


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## Catlady (Mar 18, 2020)

Warren only got into techs because he hired two younger guys to replace him, they are the ones who pushed to buy Apple.  And fund managers very seldom beat the market.  I don't like mutual funds, but do buy sector ETFs for safety because they own most of the companies in that sector.  Not all of them will fail and many also pay dividends.


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## Red Cinders (Mar 18, 2020)

Catlady, I've heard that about fund managers seldom beating the market.  I'm wondering that now in the changing environment if they'll do better than index funds. Over the past few years, the market went either straight up or sideways for a time.  There weren't a lot of losers.  Once we come out of this mess, the landscape may change and make good stock pickers important again.  BTW, I like your style!


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

Red Cinders said:


> Catlady, I've heard that about fund managers seldom beating the market.  I'm wondering that now in the changing environment if they'll do better than index funds. Over the past few years, the market went either straight up or sideways for a time.  There weren't a lot of losers.  Once we come out of this mess, the landscape may change and make good stock pickers important again.  BTW, I like your style!


actually most fund managers are very good stock pickers ....the problem most funds are to small to be efficient cost wise ....keeping the lights on and paying talent is costly so it is not the stock picking that can’t win , its the costs  .

Morningstar and ibbotsen found that if you stick to the top 20% of the mega funds in size your chances of beating indexing jumps to 80% ....funds like fidelity contra , fidelity growth company , fidelity blue chip growth have beaten their indexs for the most part for many years 
..


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## Catlady (Mar 18, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> actually most fund managers are very good stock pickers ....the problem most funds are to small to be efficient cost wise ....keeping the lights on and paying talent is costly so it is not the stock picking that can’t win , its the costs  .
> 
> Morningstar and ibbotsen found that* if you stick to the top 20% of the mega funds in size your chances of beating indexing jumps to 80% ..*..funds like fidelity contra , fidelity growth company , fidelity blue chip growth have beaten their indexs for the most part for many years



This article is one year old, but I'm sure it's still true now =  
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/act...th-year-in-a-row-in-triumph-for-indexing.html

"Dow Jones Indices released its annual report on how actively managed funds performed against their benchmarks. The conclusion is that active managers continue to show dismal performance against their passive benchmarks. For the ninth consecutive year, the majority (64.49 percent) of large-cap funds lagged the S&P 500 last year."


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

Catlady said:


> This article is one year old, but I'm sure it's still true now =
> https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/act...th-year-in-a-row-in-triumph-for-indexing.html
> 
> "Dow Jones Indices released its annual report on how actively managed funds performed against their benchmarks. The conclusion is that active managers continue to show dismal performance against their passive benchmarks. For the ninth consecutive year, the majority (64.49 percent) of large-cap funds lagged the S&P 500 last year."


That is only true if you don’t  consider fund size and every fund in the universe cans mostly because of not stock picking but the costs of running small funds .....just pick from the top 20% of funds with the most investor dollars ..odds soar to 80% you will beat indexing.. so not sure why you are posting what you did ....it has nothing to do with what I said


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## oldmontana (Mar 18, 2020)

Red Cinders said:


> CatlI've heard that about fund managers seldom beating the market .  I'm wondering that now in the changing environment if they'll do better than index funds. Over the past few years, the market went either straight up or sideways for a time.  There weren't a lot of losers.  Once we come out of this mess, the landscape may change and make good stock pickers important again.  BTW, I like your style!



"I've heard that about fund managers seldom beating the market"

That is true...they make money even if you lose money.


*Active fund managers trail the S&P 500 for the ninth year in a row in triumph for indexing*
PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 15 20197:09 AM EDTUPDATED FRI, MAR 15 201912:52 PM EDT

Bob Pisani@BOBPISANI




KEY POINTS

Active managers who claim that they would do better during periods of heightened volatility are going to have to find another argument.
For the ninth consecutive year, the majority (64.49 percent) of large-cap funds lagged the S&P 500 last year.
After 10 years, 85 percent of large cap funds underperformed the S&P 500, and after 15 years, nearly 92 percent are trailing the index.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> "I've heard that about fund managers seldom beating the market"
> 
> That is true...they make money even if you lose money.
> 
> ...


Again read what I wrote above ,...that is not the whole story....fund managers do pick stocks better but the cost of running medium and small funds  with relatively smaller  amounts of money has costs not stock picking do them in .

but do a sort of the 20% biggest funds in investor dollars and your odds jump to 80% that you will beat indexing.. that was a study by Morningstar and ibbotsen


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## mathjak107 (Mar 20, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> I like Ford at $5 with earning for 2019 @ 1.19,  2020 estimated at .92 cents , 2021 @ 1.15 they should continue to pay their 50 cent dividend.
> 
> I also own and like AT&T.


Well well well ,, Ford suspended the the dividend and suspended giving any guidance on earnings


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## oldmontana (Mar 20, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Well well well ,, Ford suspended the the dividend and suspended giving any guidance on earnings


Thanks for that day old information. 

I hope that made your day.

I look at what a stock will be , thanks to information available,  in one year.  I look for Ford to double.


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## fmdog44 (Mar 20, 2020)

I wonder how many people getting ready to retire now see it as a distant date.

Ford was at $36.66 in the 90s now it is less than $5. I sold my shares six years ago.

Berkshire Hathaway is down 8.9% this year @$257,346 from a five year high of $344,790.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 21, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> Thanks for that day old information.
> 
> I hope that made your day.
> 
> I look at what a stock will be , thanks to information available,  in one year.  I look for Ford to double.


  ford is  more than likely getting a credit down grade over the next month or so  to even worse junk  levels  .    their borrowing costs will sky rocket and they likely will  file bankruptcy wiping out shareholder debt and equity... ford is  a speculation   , not an investment at this point .

anyone who puts money in to ford should expect to loose money , and if they don't , well that is the long shot and why it is speculating


https://www.ccn.com/why-bankruptcy-forgone-conclusion-for-ford-motor-company/


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## Red Cinders (Mar 21, 2020)

Hopefully Ford will work out a deal to temporarily make ventilators.  GM is already on board.  It might just provide the life support that Ford needs until things return to somewhat normal.  I like these stories of companies repurposing themselves to fill a need in a crisis. A local sports team apparel maker is now making surgical masks because the type of material they use for their apparel is the same as is used for masks.  If they fill a desperate need and are able to keep their businesses afloat because of it, then that's a win-win for everybody.


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## oldmontana (Mar 28, 2020)

Red Cinders said:


> Hopefully Ford will work out a deal to temporarily make ventilators.  GM is already on board.  It might just provide the life support that Ford needs until things return to somewhat normal.  I like these stories of companies repurposing themselves to fill a need in a crisis. A local sports team apparel maker is now making surgical masks because the type of material they use for their apparel is the same as is used for masks.  If they fill a desperate need and are able to keep their businesses afloat because of it, then that's a win-win for everybody.


At the prices Ford and GM were a about a week ago I took a flyer and purchased stock in both....a small amount of our stock portfolio.  Ford is up about 11% and GM up 20% .

I enjoy investing.


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## OneEyedDiva (Mar 28, 2020)

Catlady said:


> Warren only got into techs because he hired two younger guys to replace him, they are the ones who pushed to buy Apple.  And fund managers very seldom beat the market.  I don't like mutual funds, but do buy sector ETFs for safety because they own most of the companies in that sector.  Not all of them will fail and many also pay dividends.


You mentioned not liking mutual funds a couple of times. Just curious....why don't you like them?


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## Catlady (Mar 28, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> You mentioned not liking mutual funds a couple of times. Just curious....why don't you like them?



Diva, they charge a hefty managing fee, you can't trade them instantly like you can an ETF so don't know what the price will be when selling or buying at the end of the day, you have to trust the manager to make good decisions.


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## fmdog44 (Mar 29, 2020)

Just read a bulletin from Vanguard saying to expect a steep but quick recession very soon. Just posting that because it appears close to unanimous a recession is very near. I just hope if it is steep it is also quickly gone.


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## Catlady (Mar 29, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Just read a bulletin from Vanguard saying* to expect a steep but quick recession very soon*. Just posting that because it appears close to unanimous a recession is very near. I just hope if it is steep it is also quickly gone.



No one can tell the future, but I've read that the longer the bull market, the longer and steeper will be the bear market.  This bull market just turned 11 years old, I believe it was the longest.  So, if it's true, this bear market and recession will be long and brutal, especially considering this very economically damaging pandemic.  I am no longer buying stocks, I'm saving the money for in case I need it to live on.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 29, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Just read a bulletin from Vanguard saying to expect a steep but quick recession very soon. Just posting that because it appears close to unanimous a recession is very near. I just hope if it is steep it is also quickly gone.


one of the most important things i learned about investing is rarely what we all think and see play out that way ...there is always something not on anyone's radar that alters what we all think is a given


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## OneEyedDiva (Mar 29, 2020)

Catlady said:


> Diva, they charge a hefty managing fee, you can't trade them instantly like you can an ETF so don't know what the price will be when selling or buying at the end of the day, you have to trust the manager to make good decisions.


Yes, I like the features of the ETFs you mentioned as well. But I mostly have mutual funds since I didn't become aware of ETFs until a few years ago. Some mutual funds have lowered their fees to under 1.00% (ie: Vanguard's VDIGX is .22%) BULIX lowered their fees from about .87% to .67% over the years.  Still the funds are not lower than ETFs though, I know.


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## mathjak107 (Mar 29, 2020)

many funds at fidelity are zero expense and cheaper than etf's  ... many admiral shares at vanguard are the same as their etf versions .... i converted my vfiax fund to voo so i copuld move it away from vanguard ... it  was the same expense when i last did it .

there can be hidden disadvantages to etf's .

etf's can be a lot more volatile since they are traded like stocks  and   can be sold short . funds have trading restrictions and can't be shorted . in fact at fidelity you must hold a fund at least 30 days befor selling .

etf's can become very badly disjointed at times from their  nav  ..... we saw that in the flash crash where popular etf's like dvy traded down 35%  while the  actual assets  were only down 5% ,  before they were able to arbitrage themselves out .

etf's sell at a premium and or discount ... at times you can over pay compared to the fund .... or buy at a premium and sell at a time there is a discount and the loss is worse.

bond etf's can have huge spreads between bid and ask as well as liquidity can be a problem for them . the third ave bond etf had to be closed and locked  when they could  not get takers for the shares unlike a fund which just sells the underlying assets .

we are seeing chaos in the pricing of total bond etf's this past month with bnd seeing 5% moves down .....

make sure you understand what you buy .... don't buy on myth or what you hear ...do your homework ... there are enough articles and studies on stuff today  to make informed choices.

while i prefer managed funds  i do use some etf's from time to time ....


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