# Has the curve really flattened?



## squatting dog (Jul 3, 2020)

So, after tracking CDC data for at-least 3 month, and I realized The NY Times is mis-representing the virus death curve.  I’ve had suspicions for a while, but,  on June 25th, when New Jersey reclassified 1877 previous deaths as covid-19 deaths, the NY Times reported them as June 25th deaths.  What the NY Times  was not reporting was the time of death, only the determination determination that death was caused by Covid-19. (pretty clever and sneaky on their part).
Why is this important? Because, 
One... according to the Times, The death curve hasn't flattened, So, Flattening the curve was a complete failure.
Two... People actually are no longer dying by the thousands every week from the virus, but, NY Times reporting makes it look so, (by saying 1877 new deaths on June 25th) causing super distress and fear to the public.
Three... Politicians react to the NY Times reporting and justify bad policy, and if that isn't bad enough, now, research groups are using the same method and coming to the wrong conclusion. 
For example, USA Today reported on a research group that used a computer model to calculate the estimated number of covid deaths, and by ignoring the fact that the NY Times was not reporting time of death (it took me a while to realize this too), so therefore, neither did they , that model concluded that an extra 50,000 or so people had died from the virus. They are comparing dissimilar data and drawing bad conclusions.
You can expect the media to run with this and continue their reign of "sky is falling" reporting.


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## CarolfromTX (Jul 3, 2020)

What? You're saying the NY Times isn't telling the whole truth? I'm shocked. Shocked.


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## squatting dog (Jul 3, 2020)

CarolfromTX said:


> What? You're saying the NY Times isn't telling the whole truth? I'm shocked. Shocked.


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## StarSong (Jul 3, 2020)

With 50K new cases a day the virus curve is not flattening in the US.  Doesn't matter who's reporting it.


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## squatting dog (Jul 3, 2020)

StarSong said:


> With 50K new cases a day the virus curve is not flattening in the US.  Doesn't matter who's reporting it.


read it again. by using a faulty computer model, they came up with 50 k deaths.  truth is, death rates are flattening.
by the way, where did it say 50k a day?


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## StarSong (Jul 3, 2020)

I introduced that fact from CDC, Johns Hopkins and other sources that track these things.  
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Death rates have flattened, but they trail virus-positives. 2-3 weeks from now US death stats are likely to show a very different tale of the tape.


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## JimBob1952 (Jul 3, 2020)

Death rates are down because many of the new cases are among young people.   (Not surprising given the demonstrations and then the bar and restaurant re-openings.)

Even in three weeks that's not going to change much.  The path of the epidemic keeps changing.  Now it's hitting lots of people, but not killing as many of them.


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## squatting dog (Jul 3, 2020)

And then there's a tid-bit that I doubt you'll find in the news about Asymptomatic people.

Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms.
There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who may be asymptomatic, but, to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission.
Information on the amount of virus floating around in people without symptoms and estimates on how many respiratory droplets they produce can be used to estimate how they could spread the virus. Those are just computer models though, (there's those computer models again), and they don’t directly answer the question.

A few research groups have managed to sort through all the clutter. One such study followed people who contracted the virus while working at a call center in South Korea. During the investigation, some workers had symptoms, some developed symptoms later, and some never developed symptoms.
 NO ONE who came into contact with the workers when they did not have symptoms ended up catching the virus.


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## Don M. (Jul 3, 2020)

Last month, many of the news channels showed a video of a large group of young people at a swimming pool at the Lake of the Ozarks, just a few miles from here, on Memorial Day.  In the weeks since, there has been a spike in this virus among those who attended.  This weekend, the tourist attractions at the Lake are expecting a record number of people to descend on that area.  I fully expect that our local news will be reporting a large jump in cases in about 2 or 3 weeks.  

I had a short dentist appointment yesterday, and the traffic in this area was really high....Memorial Day, 4th of July, and Labor Day are days when we Never hit the road.


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## StarSong (Jul 3, 2020)

squatting dog said:


> And then there's a tid-bit that I doubt you'll find in the news about Asymptomatic people.
> 
> Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms.
> There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who may be asymptomatic, but, to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission.
> ...


You're going to do what you're going to do.  

I'm following the steps recommended by the vast majority of scientists, doctors and epidemiologists. If it ultimately turns out they were overly conservative? Well, that's a risk I'm willing to take.


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## CarolfromTX (Jul 3, 2020)

It does seem like any good new about the virus -- treatments, transmission, numbers of survivors -- gets buried. But spikes and possible long term effects are covered in depth and ad nauseum. In fact, they sound almost gleeful when reporting the numbers. You'd almost think the media has an agenda.


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## Keesha (Jul 3, 2020)

If hospitals reporting deaths as covid connected, get far more money and unfortunately money talks louder than moral ethics, then this must have a certain impact on the reports


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## Sunny (Jul 3, 2020)

Ah yes, let's put our political spin on disease statistics... I would expect no less from the true believers among us!


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## squatting dog (Jul 3, 2020)

Keesha said:


> If hospitals get more money by reporting deaths as covid connected, they get far more money and unfortunately money talks louder than moral ethics


In this case, I'll have to agree with you. My neighbor's nephew drowned a couple of weeks ago. Hospital put him on a ventilator, but his brain had already flat lined. Family had to pull the plug. Insult to injury came when the death certificate related the death to covid. When the family questioned this, they were told that since he expired while on a ventilator, it's covid.  It's always follow the money.


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## StarSong (Jul 3, 2020)

squatting dog said:


> In this case, I'll have to agree with you. My neighbor's nephew drowned a couple of weeks ago. Hospital put him on a ventilator, but his brain had already flat lined. Family had to pull the plug. Insult to injury came when the death certificate related the death to covid. When the family questioned this, they were told that since he expired while on a ventilator, it's covid.  It's always follow the money.


I'd say your local hospital is exploiting an opportunity and should be investigated for doing so.  Their actions aren't necessarily representative of all hospitals in the US.


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## win231 (Jul 3, 2020)

Dr. Fauci (who I have re-named Dr. FoolishFauci) admitted yesterday during an interview that his previous quote of "several hundred thousand Covid deaths in the near future" was only to"wake people up."
Yeah....lying is a great way to wake people up......to the idiot he is.


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## win231 (Jul 3, 2020)

StarSong said:


> I'd say your local hospital is exploiting an opportunity and should be investigated for doing so.  Their actions aren't necessarily representative of all hospitals in the US.


That's an assumption - much like "99% of cops are good."
You have no way of knowing what hospitals are doing with their Covid reporting.  But, I previously posted about an ER nurse who was fired when she refused to list Covid as a cause of death for a young motorcycle accident victim who died of head trauma.  He likely was also put on a ventilator - while the family considered donating his organs, so that earned the hospital another "Covid-19" statistic.  There is only ONE reason they would go to such lengths.  And that reason is green.


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## Sunny (Jul 3, 2020)

Dr. Fauci is a hero.  He tells it like it is, period.


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## DaveA (Jul 3, 2020)

It would be helpful if folks who constantly whine about "the media" would inform us as to who they're describing.  MSNBC, FOX, ABC, some other network,  or radio hosts such a Rush or any others that they enjoy. (Sorry - not picking on Rush in particular but he's the only name that I know on radio and I imagine there are dozens of others pointing in one direction or the other)

"Media" is a foolish description as the lying and exaggerations cover a wide span from far left to far right.  Sadly, most of us (I include myself) pick and choose what we want to hear and ( I assume) try to believe it. Nothing wrong with that if we acknowledge that we're listening to the same "bull-s##t" as others, only pointed in a different direction.


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## grahamg (Jul 3, 2020)

Good posts here, if I can shower some praise on everyone!

Range of views, and we can all be wrong, so its not a bad thing to hear views we don't like, even though I'm getting less tolerant of those asserting they care more about human life than others, and yet won't accept the counter argument about the loss of life coming due to poverty across the world caused by economic meltdown.

In the UK people who try to monitor these things are saying anorexia cases amongst young people are on the rise during the lockdown, as vulnerable ones are hearing the message they're likely to put on weight, and getting it out of all proportion. People with cancer have not been getting treated as they would normally have been, similarly heart conditions, and a whole range of mental health issues either emerging, or likely to emerge, as this crisis continues with no end in sight.

There's the grim picture, and my assessment, (or guess), remains as many will suffer/die due to the lockdown and ensuing economic devastation as due to the virus, but I accept a balance of some kind had to be struck by those in power.

"Curve flattened or not"? I'd suggest the curve rising and falling again will be the situation we have to live with now anyway, whether we like it or not, and want to have a recognisable economy to return to.   .


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## Ceege (Jul 4, 2020)

"The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says"   https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/the...s.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar 

No matter who we choose to believe, we should err on the side of caution.  Too many people have already died.  And, many who lived through this virus will have health problems for the rest of their lives.  When you find out what some have suffered because of this virus, do you really want to risk getting it or passing it on to someone else? :

"Broadway actor Nick Cordero may need double lung transplant after COVID-19 battle" http://www.wusa9.com/article/news/h...ttle/507-1ca51c09-373e-43ce-8dfa-aa7766822edf via @WUSA9 

It seems like we're going to wear those masks for a long time.  We might as well accept it and get on with our lives the best we can.  What other choice do we have?  Going through the pain of having it?  Living with lung problems for the rest of our lives?  Losing someone we love to it?  Living with the worry that we might have passed it on to others?   Sometimes in a generation, people are called upon to make sacrifices for future generations.  Hopefully they will develop a working vaccine and hopefully that will help find a new vaccine if a new virus mutates from this.  We're stuck in limbo and we may be here for a long time.


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## grahamg (Jul 4, 2020)

Ceege said:


> "The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says"   https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/the...s.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar
> 
> No matter who we choose to believe, we should err on the side of caution.  Too many people have already died.  And, many who lived through this virus will have health problems for the rest of their lives.  When you find out what some have suffered because of this virus, do you really want to risk getting it or passing it on to someone else? :
> 
> ...


What do you think of the options being provided by our governments to young people, those who as we know seems to suffer very little from the Coronavirus, do you expect them to stay socially distanced for the rest of their lives, in order to avoid their spreading this disease to you or I, foregoing hopes of love or relationships with whoever might take their fancy?    .


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## CarolfromTX (Jul 4, 2020)

Geez, Graham, you're making way too much sense for some folks on here, who would prefer to wallow in their misery and virtue signal about their mask wearing.


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## Liberty (Jul 4, 2020)

Yep, everyone has to make their own choices. It is what it is, isn't it?! I did just postpone a dental semi annual cleaning appt. for a couple months...can't get much more spike than we've got now (hopefully)!


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## StarSong (Jul 4, 2020)

grahamg said:


> What do you think of the options being provided by our governments to young people, those who as we know seems to suffer very little from the Coronavirus, do you expect them to stay socially distanced for the rest of their lives, in order to avoid their spreading this disease to you or I, foregoing hopes of love or relationships with whoever might take their fancy?    .


They are not being called to go to war.  Not being asked to shoot people and be shot at.  They're being asked to remain with their families, socially distance themselves and wear masks when out of the home.  For several months, not for the rest of their lives.  This is until the virus morphs into a less dangerous entity or treatments/vaccines are sorted out.

The level of self-sacrifice being asked of most of us is far less than earlier generations accepted with barely a whimper. 

I'm so over spoiled, whiny ADULT brats who're complaining about the horrible sacrifice of wearing a mask, staying mostly at home, and socially distancing ourselves so the country can get this thing under control.


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## Don M. (Jul 4, 2020)

This CV-19 Curve may not "flatline" for many more months....maybe even a year, or more.  It will be more like a "roller coaster" as peoples attitudes about following the mask and social distancing wax and wane.  No one has any answers or solutions to this illness, at this point, and until/if a cure is found, the Only thing we can do is follow the "experts" recommendations...whether we agree or not.


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## grahamg (Jul 4, 2020)

StarSong said:


> They are not being called to go to war.  Not being asked to shoot people and be shot at.  They're being asked to remain with their families, socially distance themselves and wear masks when out of the home.  For several months, not for the rest of their lives.  This is until the virus morphs into a less dangerous entity or treatments/vaccines are sorted out.
> The level of self-sacrifice being asked of most of us is far less than earlier generations accepted with barely a whimper.
> I'm so over spoiled, whiny ADULT brats who're complaining about the horrible sacrifice of wearing a mask, staying mostly at home, and socially distancing ourselves so the country can get this thing under control.


As far as your argument our young people are not being asked, (or forced), to go to war, I think a friend of mine might call that a "strawman argument". An obvious riposte is do you think in WWII, for example, young people, or anyone else, would have accepted their government weakly allowing nations threatening your national interests to get away with it?
Now there is my putting forward the notion our young people are being asked to socially distance indefinitely, where you could accuse me of creating a strawman argument, you can't tell us when our government will change their advice can you, and if this virus never goes away, what rationale would there be to change social distancing rules, if its necessary now? I'm stung by anyone cloaking themselves or their arguments in the this ostensibly unchallengeable frame of "we're saving lives, you're risking lives" way, whilst ignoring the jeopardy created by economic meltdown to everyone's future.
I accept loss of life at the levels witnessed so far had to be responded to by our governments, but the lockdown etc has to be balanced against everything else in my view.   .


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## Ceege (Jul 4, 2020)

It seems to come down to one word - _risk_. What are we willing to do to avoid the risk of a very contagious, painful, and harmful disease? And help keep others from getting it.  I like to think that we are strong enough to be adaptable for the safety of our fellow Americans.  

I just went through the death of my husband.  There couldn't even be a proper funeral for him because of this virus.  Funeral homes were so backed up at that time that it took a month to finally get his ashes.  We're waiting until there is a vaccine before we drive up north to scatter his ashes at one of his favorite places.  I can't help but feel I didn't do enough to mark his passing.  But, I did what I was allowed to do because of the restrictions.  I'm not alone in this.  Thousands have gone through the exact same thing. My husband knew about this virus before he died and I'm sure he would want us all to be safe in what we can do for him now.


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## Liberty (Jul 4, 2020)

Ceege said:


> It seems to come down to one word - _risk_. What are we willing to do to avoid the risk of a very contagious, painful, and harmful disease? And help keep others from getting it.  I like to think that we are strong enough to be adaptable for the safety of our fellow Americans.
> 
> I just went through the death of my husband.  There couldn't even be a proper funeral for him because of this virus.  Funeral homes were so backed up at that time that it took a month to finally get his ashes.  We're waiting until there is a vaccine before we drive up north to scatter his ashes at one of his favorite places.  I can't help but feel I didn't do enough to mark his passing.  But, I did what I was allowed to do because of the restrictions.  I'm not alone in this.  Thousands have gone through the exact same thing. My husband knew about this virus before he died and I'm sure he would want us all to be safe in what we can do for him now.


God bless you, Ceege.


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## StarSong (Jul 4, 2020)

Not a strawman argument at all.  I responded to your post above:
"What do you think of the options being provided by our governments to young people, those who as we know seems to suffer very little from the Coronavirus, do you expect them to stay socially distanced for the rest of their lives, in order to avoid their spreading this disease to you or I, foregoing hopes of love or relationships with whoever might take their fancy?"


Young people of most generations are called to action in one way or another.  All things considered, what today's youth are being asked to do to get this under control is relatively minor.

At less than 4 months into this, it's hardly reasonable to extrapolate "indefinitely" or "for the rest of their lives" from an extraordinary four months.


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## Liberty (Jul 4, 2020)

Young ones are getting more serious complications from it as time goes on I think. This week a local doc said he had 12 patients - young - that needed vents and he only had 3 vents.  He said they would probably die if they didn't get them, they were in that bad of a condition.  Think the virus is starting to morph.


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## Ceege (Jul 4, 2020)

"What we know about COVID-19 is changing rapidly"    https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/2019-novel-coronavirus/

 At first this virus hit seniors the hardest.  Then is hit men more than women.  Then it hit minorities more that white people.  Now, it's turned on our younger people.  We can't trust this virus to act in any particular way and we have to prepare and guard against anything.


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## gennie (Jul 4, 2020)

Happy 4th to all.  No flattening in sight for Florida yet.  Thursday added another 10,109 cases and yesterday another 9,488 bringing total to 178,594.  Total deaths to date:  3,684.

My county added 333 cases yesterday for total of 4,660 cases and 105 deaths.  

For some reason, zip code numbers are no longer being posted as they were just a week ago.


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## StarSong (Jul 4, 2020)

Ceege said:


> "What we know about COVID-19 is changing rapidly"    https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/2019-novel-coronavirus/
> 
> At first this virus hit seniors the hardest.  Then is hit men more than women.  Then it hit minorities more that white people.  Now, it's turned on our younger people.  We can't trust this virus to act in any particular way and we have to prepare and guard against anything.


Thanks for the link to the Yale Medicine article.  Interesting reading.


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## grahamg (Jul 4, 2020)

Ceege said:


> It seems to come down to one word - _risk_. What are we willing to do to avoid the risk of a very contagious, painful, and harmful disease? And help keep others from getting it.  I like to think that we are strong enough to be adaptable for the safety of our fellow Americans.
> 
> I just went through the death of my husband.  There couldn't even be a proper funeral for him because of this virus.  Funeral homes were so backed up at that time that it took a month to finally get his ashes.  We're waiting until there is a vaccine before we drive up north to scatter his ashes at one of his favorite places.  I can't help but feel I didn't do enough to mark his passing.  But, I did what I was allowed to do because of the restrictions.  I'm not alone in this.  Thousands have gone through the exact same thing. My husband knew about this virus before he died and I'm sure he would want us all to be safe in what we can do for him now.


You say it comes down to one word, _risk, _I disagree, and say it comes down to these words, "_balance of risks",_ but how can we make sense in any discussion if we are unable to find a basis we can agree upon?

We've heard an argument put forward our young people are being asked to forego far less than those sent to war a generation or two ago, but I still maintain the commitment they're expected to make on our behalf is open ended, and when questioned on this those making the argument quickly shied away from saying when social distancing might be over.

I know people whose husbands have died during this pandemic lockdown due to other causes, who are not able to show their respects properly, and grieve properly as a consequence. I don't want to be insensitive, but everyone future is threatened here, and our children, and grandchildren's future. Harsh choices have had to be made, and more will follow, possibly involving increasing political tension and instability across the world. The outcome so far as your husband goes could not have been worse, and the same applies to so many others, but the future of the world, and all those left in it, is at stake, if the right choices aren't made.

Obviously my condolences for your loss.


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## Sunny (Jul 4, 2020)

There was an item on the news last night about an 11 year old boy dying from it.


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## grahamg (Jul 4, 2020)

Sunny said:


> There was an item on the news last night about an 11 year old boy dying from it.


Authoritative sources in the UK are still stressing the level of risk to young people is very low though, (government party members or former leaders included).


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## Ceege (Jul 4, 2020)

I'm going to stick with_ risk_. It's like playing Russian Roulette. Maybe someone will catch it, maybe not. No idea how it might affect you. But if putting on a mask and using sanitizer will help my odds, I'm going for it.


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## Keesha (Jul 4, 2020)

My curves haven’t seemed to flatten any 
Sorry! I couldn’t resist


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## Sunny (Jul 4, 2020)

> The level of self-sacrifice being asked of most of us is far less than earlier generations accepted with barely a whimper.
> 
> I'm so over spoiled, whiny ADULT brats who're complaining about the horrible sacrifice of wearing a mask, staying mostly at home, and socially distancing ourselves so the country can get this thing under control.



Well said, Star.  And to that, I would add:  Even though the death toll is lower for younger people, this does not sound like a disease that anyone in their right mind would knowingly risk.  It sounds absolutely horrible, many people are left with long-term (possibly lifelong?) mental and physical infirmities, and even some of the young people have died from it.  This is not like getting a little cold, or a mild case of the flu.  I've read accounts in the paper of young, healthy people getting it, being hideously sick for a few weeks, thinking they were over it, and then it suddenly comes back without warning. One morning they wake up with a high fever, sometimes paralyzed, sometimes nearly unable to breathe, being rushed off to the hospital. Some people have had 4-5 recurrences, with no end in sight.

Some of them emerge from the disease with a large part of their mental functioning gone. It seems to particularly affect their memory. Many of them are wiped out emotionally, horribly depressed.  So, is even this kind of possibility worth the risk of gathering without masks on beaches, in bars, etc.?  I repeat, why would anyone in their right mind run such a risk?  For what?

Graham, you are WAY overstating the consequences of just following normal common sense.  This is a horrendous epidemic, but it won't last forever, and nobody is going to remain socially distanced for "the rest of their lives!" I'm sure there will be a vaccine, just as there is for most other dangerous infectious diseases.  But we have to find a sane way to ride it out.

Why is it that every other country on earth somehow managed to beat this back, and they are all returning to normal, except for us?  Maybe it's because they haven't got a self-absorbed, narcissistic idiot at the helm, who actually still has some people (a dwindling number, thank God) under his thumb, and blindly following him into the path of illness?

It will be very interesting to see what happens to "the curve" after the unprotected celebrations of today's holiday. I bet there will be a large surge.  And some of those people will die.


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## Ceege (Jul 4, 2020)

Ditto, Sunny. 
 A virus this serious has never happened before.  We have to fight it with precaution and perseverance.


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## win231 (Jul 4, 2020)

Ceege said:


> Ditto, Sunny.
> A virus this serious has never happened before.  We have to fight it with precaution and perseverance.


Uh...well.  The Spanish Flu in 1918 killed around 50 million.


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## grahamg (Jul 4, 2020)

Sunny said:


> Break
> Graham, you are WAY overstating the consequences of just following normal common sense.  This is a horrendous epidemic, but it won't last forever, and nobody is going to remain socially distanced for "the rest of their lives!" I'm sure there will be a vaccine, just as there is for most other dangerous infectious diseases.  But we have to find a sane way to ride it out.
> 
> Why is it that every other country on earth somehow managed to beat this back, and they are all returning to normal, except for us?  Maybe it's because they haven't got a self-absorbed, narcissistic idiot at the helm, who actually still has some people (a dwindling number, thank God) under his thumb, and blindly following him into the path of illness?
> ...


Yes I am overstating the "social distancing" situation. I'm doing so deliberately to highlight the fact no one can state how long it will last, and those refusing to accept there is a "balance of risks" here, wish to avoid questions I'm trying to use to show where their arguments fall down.
You seem to understand there us a balance of risks here, but don't let me put words in your mouth.      .


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## Ceege (Jul 5, 2020)

win231 said:


> Uh...well.  The Spanish Flu in 1918 killed around 50 million.


"With diagnosed COVID-19 cases passing 1 million worldwide and communities around the globe on lockdown, the coronavirus pandemic has claimed a place as one of the most serious public health crises in living memory, an emergency that pandemic expert Eric Toner says is "unlike anything we've seen before." Toner, of Johns Hopkins University, sat down with CNET's Claire Reilly to shed light on the scale of what the world is facing."
https://www.cnet.com/news/johns-hop...oronavirus-covid-19-is-totally-unprecedented/

"Unprecedented danger calls for unprecedented measures:
 "This is unlike anything we've seen before," Toner says. "And there is no way to completely stop this. It can't be contained, it can only be slowed down.""


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## fmdog44 (Jul 5, 2020)

While Europe's numbers are falling substantially our are soaring approaching 130,000 deaths.


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## fmdog44 (Jul 5, 2020)

win231 said:


> Dr. Fauci (who I have re-named Dr. FoolishFauci) admitted yesterday during an interview that his previous quote of "several hundred thousand Covid deaths in the near future" was only to"wake people up."
> Yeah....lying is a great way to wake people up......to the idiot he is.


He did not predict it rather, he said it would not surprise IF things don't turn around. The idiot is the doofus that said, QUOTE, "99%  of the tests are _totally harmless._" UNQUOTE


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## Barbiegirl (Jul 6, 2020)

grahamg said:


> Range of views, and we can all be wrong, so its not a bad thing to hear views we don't like, even though I'm getting less tolerant of those asserting they care more about human life than others, and yet won't accept the counter argument about the loss of life coming due to poverty across the world caused by economic meltdown.



I'm in Florida, where the cases continue to rise. Saturday's toll was 10,059 new cases (third highest in a single day) which tipped us over the 200,000 mark. Here's the problem: the very people protesting closures and demanding a full reopening of the state are largely the _same_ people who refuse to observe CDC guidelines wrt social distancing and hygiene. Epidemiologists have stated that the closures here aren't necessary if our government would adopt a stronger stance and citizens would take personal responsibility for their behavior, but... nope. And the CDC bears a large amount of blame for citizens' current attitudes btw. I'm not letting the CDC off the hook for their part in this massive cock-up.

Here's the bottom line: If you care about your fellow humans, you'll want the economy reopened. To reopen the economy, you need to do your part to flatten the curve and keep it flat. You can't pretend to care about the loss of jobs and livelihoods while refusing to participate in the solution. (using the collective "you", not you personally Graham)

That's how I see it, from my view here in the front row of an epicenter.


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## Pepper (Jul 6, 2020)

Barbiegirl said:


> That's how I see it, from my view here in *the front row of an epicenter.*


Been there, done that, hope it doesn't come back.


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## grahamg (Jul 6, 2020)

Barbiegirl said:


> I'm in Florida, where the cases continue to rise. Saturday's toll was 10,059 new cases (third highest in a single day) which tipped us over the 200,000 mark. Here's the problem: the very people protesting closures and demanding a full reopening of the state are largely the _same_ people who refuse to observe CDC guidelines wrt social distancing and hygiene. Epidemiologists have stated that the closures here aren't necessary if our government would adopt a stronger stance and citizens would take personal responsibility for their behavior, but... nope. And the CDC bears a large amount of blame for citizens' current attitudes btw. I'm not letting the CDC off the hook for their part in this massive cock-up.
> 
> Here's the bottom line: If you care about your fellow humans, you'll want the economy reopened. To reopen the economy, you need to do your part to flatten the curve and keep it flat. You can't pretend to care about the loss of jobs and livelihoods while refusing to participate in the solution. (using the collective "you", not you personally Graham)
> 
> That's how I see it, from my view here in the front row of an epicenter.


I respect your arguments, and you're presenting the mainstream view. There are other views, some put forward by responsible enough people such as a former leader of one of our UK political parties, (not a guy I like particularly, Sir Ian Duncan Smith, - if I can find a link I'll come back). Your supposition is this virus can be controlled or beaten by social distancing, my proposition is that ultimately it can't be beaten that way, and only controlled to a point, if you want an economy worthy of the name to go back to.
I'll do my bit, as much as I'm able, and follow the rules, because it isn't that much skin off my nose to do so. I hope you're right and I'm wrong too, but won't change my view on the basis of anything I've seen so far, and because of my belief the world can't be stopped like this for long without catastrophic consequences, regardless of this disease.  .


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## Barbiegirl (Jul 6, 2020)

> Your supposition is this virus can be controlled or beaten by social distancing, my proposition is that ultimately it can't be beaten that way, and only controlled to a point, if you want an economy worthy of the name to go back to.



No, the virus can't be beaten 100% by the health department guidelines. That's not how viruses act, and even a vaccine isn't likely to be fully effective if this virus can mutate like many others do. Flattening the curve is about getting it to a controlled level where healthcare facilities aren't overwhelmed, testing is adequate and we aren't on a runaway train. That doesn't mean 0 cases. But it means much, much better than over 10,000 new cases per day just in the state of Florida. We also need to better understand how to treat with early intervention to prevent cases from getting critical. Personally I think more effective treatment is a likelier solution than a vaccine, but let's hope I'm super wrong about that.

And we know that the virus _can_ be adequately controlled by social distancing and hygiene measures, because we saw the improvements happen here and in other areas. Unfortunately, once the heavy lockdowns were eased here in Florida people and businesses refused to follow safety guidelines. And now we're looking at over 10,000 new cases per day and hospitals reaching capacity again. Again, the epidemiolgists said we shouldn't _need_ to lock down again, _if _we all behave responsibly. So far people refuse to do so, then they complain about the consequences.



> 'll do my bit, as much as I'm able, and follow the rules, because it isn't that much skin off my nose to do so.



And I am grateful to people like you. If everyone would only do their small part we could all have a brighter outcome, faster. Mainstream as my opinion may be, I don't think you and I are really that far apart in our views. I want the best of all of us and that includes the ability to feed our families.


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## StarSong (Jul 6, 2020)

Barbiegirl said:


> I'm in Florida, where the cases continue to rise. Saturday's toll was 10,059 new cases (third highest in a single day) which tipped us over the 200,000 mark. Here's the problem: the very people protesting closures and demanding a full reopening of the state are largely the _same_ people who refuse to observe CDC guidelines wrt social distancing and hygiene. Epidemiologists have stated that the closures here aren't necessary if our government would adopt a stronger stance and citizens would take personal responsibility for their behavior, but... nope. And the CDC bears a large amount of blame for citizens' current attitudes btw. I'm not letting the CDC off the hook for their part in this massive cock-up.
> 
> Here's the bottom line: If you care about your fellow humans, you'll want the economy reopened. To reopen the economy, you need to do your part to flatten the curve and keep it flat. You can't pretend to care about the loss of jobs and livelihoods while refusing to participate in the solution. (using the collective "you", not you personally Graham)
> 
> That's how I see it, from my view here in the front row of an epicenter.


Amen, Sister.


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## Giantsfan1954 (Jul 6, 2020)

There is some opinions that it has already mutated,haven't seen it confirmed anywhere yet but Covid seems to have taken a backseat to what else is going on...
My daughter had it twice,sick enough to scare me but quarantined not hospitalized.
I do believe at some future point we're going to have to live with it,not unlike the flu,with recommended precautions for the elderly and compromised,we simply can't shut down the country again.


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## grahamg (Jul 6, 2020)

Barbiegirl said:


> No, the virus can't be beaten 100% by the health department guidelines. That's not how viruses act, and even a vaccine isn't likely to be fully effective if this virus can mutate like many others do. Flattening the curve is about getting it to a controlled level where healthcare facilities aren't overwhelmed, testing is adequate and we aren't on a runaway train. That doesn't mean 0 cases. But it means much, much better than over 10,000 new cases per day just in the state of Florida. We also need to better understand how to treat with early intervention to prevent cases from getting critical. Personally I think more effective treatment is a likelier solution than a vaccine, but let's hope I'm super wrong about that.
> 
> And we know that the virus _can_ be adequately controlled by social distancing and hygiene measures, because we saw the improvements happen here and in other areas. Unfortunately, once the heavy lockdowns were eased here in Florida people and businesses refused to follow safety guidelines. And now we're looking at over 10,000 new cases per day and hospitals reaching capacity again. Again, the epidemiolgists said we shouldn't _need_ to lock down again, _if _we all behave responsibly. So far people refuse to do so, then they complain about the consequences.
> 
> ...


I think a vaccine might defeat this Coronavirus, or at least as good as defeat it, but it isn't guaranteed, and no one knows for certain when. 
I can accept the lockdown measures to date, (though even they are controversial, in the sense not all countries have followed suit at least). However, where the balance should be struck, between achieving some level of control is my issue, (and if you've followed the thread some dont even what to think there is a balance of risks, and all anyone should be focusing upon is "risk", while there is any virus around. I think this is unreasonable and unrealistic, because life has always been a gamble I'm told, and taking my arguments to extremes once again, we're seriously asking the population at large to socially distance themselves from other human beings, or at least those not from their own homes, and living with them, (I know there is some relaxation over here going on, but not that much). 
In theory no one is allowed to meet someone and "fall in love" so long as our government's say so, or "indefinitely" (in theory). In the UK we even had one expert telling those in a relationship but not yet living together, to move in with one another at the start of the lockdown (if they couldn't accept living apart, and still wanted to meet each other). That's some degree of intrusion into people's lives, a government spokesperson handing out flippant advice like that to everyone.    
Finally you hold out hope for a brighter future "sooner" if everyone follows to rules. I accept trying to control infection rates is necessary, and if and when a successful vaccine comes along lives saved in the meantime will be worth it, but there are no guarantees it will work out that way.


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## gennie (Jul 11, 2020)

Where is this curve we are supposed to be flattening? Florida is still spiking.  Yesterday, Friday, added 11,433 new cases bringing total to 244,151.  My county added 405 cases bring total to 6,611.  FLorida deaths are at 4,102.  1 in every 71 people in my zip have been infected.

Fallout from the holiday weekend should be just now showing up.


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## win231 (Jul 11, 2020)

gennie said:


> Where is this curve we are supposed to be flattening? Florida is still spiking.  Yesterday, Friday, added 11,433 new cases bringing total to 244,151.  My county added 405 cases bring total to 6,611.  FLorida deaths are at 4,102.  1 in every 71 people in my zip have been infected.
> 
> Fallout from the holiday weekend should be just now showing up.


The curve flattens or cases spike, depending on what they want us to believe.


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