# Arizona has the guns, Chicago has the crime.



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

Manatee, you shouldn't tempt me this way.

I saw this statement as a signature on one of your posts, and peculiar creature that I am, I had to investigate to see if it is true.

Here is my fact check finding.

Given that Chicago is a city and Arizona is a state, I couldn't find a direct comparison but I did find this link that compares murder rates nationally and by state http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/murder-rates-nationally-and-state#MRord

In the table showing murder statistics ranked by 2103, highest to lowest, Illinois and Arizona are very close together at 11th and 12th. Both are above the state average for states without the death penalty and fairly close to the average of states with the death penalty.

Fact check conclusion - your statement is false. Sorry. :hide:


----------



## QuickSilver (Oct 22, 2015)

Arizona has cactus.....  Chicago has poverty and street gangs..


----------



## AZ Jim (Oct 22, 2015)

Phoenix is our big city.  It is where we have the most crime.
http://chicago.areaconnect.com/crime/compare.htm?c1=Chicago&s1=IL&c2=phoenix&s2=AZ


----------



## applecruncher (Oct 22, 2015)

Why is a resident of Sydney, Australia so interested in crime stats in Arizona and Chicago? Do you have friends/family in those places? Are you planning to visit?


----------



## BobF (Oct 22, 2015)

I think that in the US that is a fair question to ask of anyone.   No laws in our Republic to deny that freedom.   It is as fair as those left minded ones asking the other posters if they 'really' believe the US ways are really better.   I sure like our freedoms pretty much.   Personal put downs are really not good.   Many times I have been told this.


----------



## QuickSilver (Oct 22, 2015)

I think Warri was only rebutting Manatee's signature... and proving it false.


----------



## AZ Jim (Oct 22, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> I think Warri was only rebutting Manatee's signature... and proving it false.


manatee has a signature?


----------



## QuickSilver (Oct 22, 2015)

AZ Jim said:


> manatee has a signature?



yes... it was the thread title


----------



## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> Arizona has cactus.....  Chicago has poverty and street gangs..



The Cactuses are only nasty when you do not leave them alone! Shortly after we moved to Arizona from Indiana, a news clip told of two guys outside of Tucson shooting shotguns at the big Saguaro Cactuses, one of them went to pose next to his target, and it promptly fell over, killing him. Conservation people estimated it's weight at about 17,000 lbs.   imp


----------



## applecruncher (Oct 22, 2015)

> Chicago has poverty and street gangs



And pizza to DIE for. Also great hot dogs.


----------



## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

Petty, petty. As important as the pimple on the dog's ass.   imp


----------



## AZ Jim (Oct 22, 2015)

I believe it Imp.  They are full of water so very heavy.  I  would say justice in this case.


----------



## RadishRose (Oct 22, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> I think Warri was only rebutting Manatee's signature... and proving it false.




I didn't think it was intrinsic to a signature as it is known here, to be something offered for a "rebuttal".


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

applecruncher said:


> Meanwhile, *again*:~~~>>> Why would someone living in Sydney, Australia be remotely interested in crime in Arizona or Chicago? Please, enlighten me!



I've only just woken up and it might be too early in the conversation to answer AC's question but she's asked it twice so I will explain.

#1 Manatee made a claim in another thread (which I wrongly thought was a signature) that Chicago has the crime and Arizona has the guns. As someone with a mathematical education I couldn't let that pass because to compare a rural state to a major city doesn't make a lot of sense. So I googled "US crime rates state by state" and looked for comparisons between Illinois and Arizona. The site I found had nothing to do with guns. It was comparing murder rates state by state and highlighting states with and without the death penalty, which is another analysis entirely. Still, the stats showed little difference between Arizona and Illinois on murder rates over quite a long period, which was a surprise to me. I did expect Illinois to be worse, but it really isn't.

So, as a fact checker, I came to the conclusion that Manatees claim was misleading at best. I'd go as far as to say it was wrong. 

Is truth searching only relevant if one is a native born American.

Anyone looking for dirt on Australia should start some threads on ill treatment of asylum seekers, or domestic violence against women and you will find rich pickings. I will join in of course. I can only talk about sharks and spiders for so long before everything has been said.


----------



## Shalimar (Oct 22, 2015)

Ouch! Well said Warri.


----------



## applecruncher (Oct 22, 2015)

Warrigal, thanks for answering.  I have no negative feelings about Australia.  In fact, in a different thread I posted about my best friend joining her husband who was in Australia on business and she was enchanted.  I saw their beautiful pictires and video......loved the kangaroos, of course.  The pouches are very different from what we see on cartoons.  And boxing kangaroos always crack...me...up!!

Anyway, thanks again.


----------



## Shirley (Oct 22, 2015)

But why did you feel the need to prove Manatee wrong?


----------



## QuickSilver (Oct 22, 2015)

Because that's what people do on a debate section???


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

Shirley said:


> But why did you feel the need to prove Manatee wrong?



Because the statement had a sniff of propaganda about it. Mantras like that one are easy to remember and easy to repeat. If true, that is not a bad thing but if false it can become fixed truth in people's minds. To me a false statement is a challenge. I have to check it out and sometimes I do find that it contains at least some truth.

George Orwell (Animal Farm; 1984)  wrote about this. A simple slogan or sentence can have a very powerful role in manipulating people.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

By the way, I'm now off to visit my husband in hospital. I'll be gone for about 4 hours.

May I suggest everyone settle down. 

If anyone has the energy, please try to find comparative crime stats for Chicago and Phoenix.
Does Chicago have the worse stats or are they in the same ball park?
That would conclude the analysis.


----------



## AZ Jim (Oct 22, 2015)

Warrigal said:


> By the way, I'm now off to visit my husband in hospital. I'll be gone for about 4 hours.
> 
> May I suggest everyone settle down.
> 
> ...


I posted that above Warri.  Check it out when you can.  BTW I wish you well on your hospital visit.


----------



## Shalimar (Oct 22, 2015)

Warri, I did not know your husband was in hospital. My best wishes for a speedy recovery.


----------



## ~Lenore (Oct 22, 2015)

*Jim, I looked and looked but I could not find it if you posted statistics comparing Chicago & Phoenix gun death statistics.  I may have misunderstood what you meant.

I tried to find the statistics myself on line and could not.  
*


----------



## AZ Jim (Oct 22, 2015)

~Lenore said:


> *Jim, I looked and looked but I could not find it if you posted statistics comparing Chicago & Phoenix gun death statistics.  I may have misunderstood what you meant.
> 
> I tried to find the statistics myself on line and could not.
> *



It's post #3 on this link.


----------



## ~Lenore (Oct 22, 2015)

*Thanks, I went back and I found it.
It is just reporting crimes in general but not gun specific.
 I notice Chicago is safe for women; 
 they never get raped there!   
..or maybe it is not reported.
Interesting stats.

I am considering adding my little saying on my posts, rhat I use at other forums.
 You know like the one you have :**Arizona home of guns, more guns, no permit required and murders every single day.....*
​*I am afraid to because I would be hated here if I did.  So  wisdom tells me not to do it. ositive:


*


----------



## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

Wisdom stated "after the fact" is "wisdom stretched".   imp


----------



## QuickSilver (Oct 22, 2015)

Born in Chicago... Lived here all my life....  still alive... hahahahahahaha..   None of you know what you are talking about..


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

~Lenore said:


> *Thanks, I went back and I found it.
> It is just reporting crimes in general but not gun specific.
> *



My stats weren't gun specific either Lenore. They were murder statistics, means not specified.
My response wasn't about guns at all, just examining the claim that Chicago has all of the crime.  
As I said, the first stats that came up were about murder. Arizona has murder too, at about the same level as Illinois.


----------



## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

*Stats?*

Difficult to quantify, often, hard to understand completely, often distorted to meet the intent of the presenter. Not aiming (no pun intended) at your post, Warri. What I'm sayin' is this:

Suppose the area under consideration has a population of 2, and 1 kills the other. Murder rate 50%, or, spread in commoner expressive notation, 50,000 per 100,000.   An extreme case, yes. But it poses a picture.

The better data, IMO, would be derived based on _population density o_f the region considered, rather than_ region population _itself. Many questions may be posed: Arizona has immense areas devoted to Indian Reservation Lands. They regard themselves as sovereign nations, even have their own automotive license plates! Their population density is very low. Are they included in the Arizona State stats? Their total land area is over 28,000 square miles, 18.5 million acres. Total Native American population 283,000.  That's 10 people per square mile, average. 

Arizona state land area = 114,000 square miles, population 6,252,000. 55 people per square mile.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

As I indicated earlier, the stats I found first were purely about murders, not crime in general and they were gathered on a state wide basis. As is usual they were calculated on a rate of murders per 100,000 people which allows comparisons at a macro level.

If you want comparisons based on regional area then it is inevitable that cities would appear to be a lot more violent than remote rural areas because where there are no people, crime is a lot less likely. However it is a sad fact that violent death is more likely to happen to you in an outback Aboriginal settlement than it is in Sydney or Melbourne.


----------



## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

*"However it is a sad fact that violent death is more likely to happen to you in an outback Aboriginal settlement than it is in Sydney or Melbourne"

*Is that a fact? Do Aboriginal settlements resemble our Reservations, do you suppose? I have no data for them, but reason that the "heat of the argument" situation is less  likely, if the next closest guy over is 5 miles away! However, you stated "to you", meaning me or you, if located in an aboriginal settlement? I do not even know what they are. Sorry!    imp


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

No, the violent deaths happen to the people who live there. Alcohol and other drugs, unemployment and hopelessness can take their toll on small communities as well as in the big cities.

You, on the other hand, would be more likely to die of thirst if you enter the arid hinterland unprepared.


----------



## SeaBreeze (Oct 24, 2015)

All offending posts have been removed from this thread.  Please show some consideration for the other members and readers of this forum.  If necessary, go to the member's profile page and use the ignore feature in the future.  https://www.seniorforums.com/showthread.php/8331-NOTICE-All-Members-Please-Read

Now, back to topic please.


----------



## Manatee (Oct 24, 2015)

I only know what I read regarding Chicago, I was last there in 1971.
I did live in AZ from 2000 until last November.  AZ Jim lives in Surprise which is a suburb on the fringe of the Phoenix metro area.  I lived in an adjacent community.  I would avoid going to Chicago for any reason, I felt safe in AZ.  I didn't know a single person that carried a sidearm, although I did know a number of folks that owned them.

"Sort of" statistics really don't get it.


----------



## Ken N Tx (Oct 25, 2015)

Manatee said:


> I only know what I read regarding Chicago, I was last there in 1971.
> I did live in AZ from 2000 until last November.  AZ Jim lives in Surprise which is a suburb on the fringe of the Phoenix metro area.  I lived in an adjacent community.  I would avoid going to Chicago for any reason, I felt safe in AZ.  I didn't know a single person that carried a sidearm, although I did know a number of folks that owned them.
> 
> "Sort of" statistics really don't get it.



I was born and raised in Chicago, I also did work for the city wide public transportation system. With that being said, I would not venture to many parts of the city day or night!!!!!


----------



## WhatInThe (Oct 25, 2015)

Chicago has a lot of extremely violent and aggressive criminals who have little or no compunction doing what they want for what they want. Regardless of physical conditions or settings it's takes an extremely selfish, violent, amoral, unethical and ignorant pos to commit/perpetuate the crime found in Chicago. One can play with statistics all they want it still comes down to the individual and personal choice.


----------

