# Why There are Now So Many Shortages (It's Not COVID)....apparently



## hollydolly (Jun 3, 2021)




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## JonDouglas (Jun 3, 2021)

The field of supply chain dynamics has been well known, even to the point that an MIT PhD named Barry Richmond built a software package (i.e. STELLA/iThink) that could model things like supply chain dynamics very effectively on a PC decades ago.  Well before that, some of us were doing flow modeling on large RCA and IBM mainframes back around 1970.  Having been a long-time user of the PC simulation software, I found it was a great aid to helping others, as well as myself, better understand the nuances of supply chains dynamics.  Unfortunately, IMO, many of today's government "experts" have little or no understanding of the subject, if they even know it is a subject to be considered.  If they did, the lockdown would never have happened the way it did.  - End Of Rant -


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## StarSong (Jun 3, 2021)

Very informative video with plenty of valid points, especially: 

1. Global sourcing has gotten everyone accustomed to being awash in extremely inexpensive goods. 

2. Problem is that with just-in-time inventories being the modern business model, any supply chain disruptions are enormously painful because so little backup supply is available. 

What he didn't mention is human nature to hoard when we believe our supply of necessities is threatened. He also didn't comment on the huge impact of offshore manufacturing and procurement of so many foods, and consumer goods, both durable and non-durable.

A couple of other comments: 

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have long been operating beyond optimal capacity. 

The shortage of US truck drivers exists because companies don't want to pay them adequately.  Many truck drivers have opted for other occupations because of too-low pay and difficult working conditions.   Like most professions that don't require years of specialized schooling, if you pay them, they will come...  

Thanks for an interesting watch, @hollydolly.


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## Sunny (Jun 3, 2021)

Fascinating!  Thanks, Holly.


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## JonDouglas (Jul 14, 2021)

I've a supply chain story.  One of our counter stools collapsed the other day.  We got it at place a decorator acquaintance strongly recommended but it turned out to be China-made crap.  After several attempts at gluing/clamping it back together, the chair literally disintegrated into about 6 pieces the other day and the other one isn't far behind.  Those chairs were the one time I didn't get American furniture made by craftsmen.  So today we drove to a furniture store that sells mostly high-quality, Amish-made, solid-wood furniture.  With nothing in stock except the the store model, we ordered two, specifying type of wood and finish. 

My lower jaw almost hit the floor when the store owner said it would be at least 7 months before we got them.  He said the supply chain problem was bad, getting worse and that inflation was becoming a serious problem.  As you know, increasing scarcity of goods (currently caused by supply chain problems) can trigger inflation if there's too much money chasing it.  As it is, the Fed has been pouring money into the economy with the idea of stimulating it.  Instead, they're stimulating inflation.  Not seeing any near-term relief from increasing prices, we put 50% down to lock in the price and signed the order.    Anyway, below is the chair (not the finish) we won't be getting any time soon.


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## squatting dog (Jul 15, 2021)

I just can't believe that a lot of these "shortages" aren't man made and therefore provide an opportunity to increase the price. Perfect example... last week in a Florida Home Depot, There was stacks and stacks of OSB. All yours for a paltry $45 a sheet.  Paying 45 bucks for a sheet of osb that last year cost me a whopping $8 and change kind of makes me think that this shortage has never existed.


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