# Market sell off about to end?



## oldmontana (May 19, 2022)

I think so..what say you?


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## OneEyedDiva (May 19, 2022)

It's hard to tell. I don't even think the "experts" know for sure. Just keep riding the roller coaster.


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## Timewise 60+ (May 19, 2022)

Two rules I have learned about the American stock market is 1. Nobody can predict the stock market!  2. Anyone who says they can predict the market is a charlatan and you should take your money and run away from them.


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## Aunt Bea (May 19, 2022)




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## oldmontana (May 19, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> It's hard to tell. I don't even think the "experts" know for sure. Just keep riding the roller coaster.


I will do that.  I have a lot of stocks that pay a  good div.  Looks like they will not reduce their div.  

As the money keeps coming in I invest it.


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## Liberty (May 19, 2022)

oldmontana said:


> I will do that.  I have a lot of stocks that pay a  good div.  Looks like they will not reduce their div.
> 
> As the money keeps coming in I invest it.


That's what we do...have a good dividend growth fund!


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## Liberty (May 19, 2022)

Volumes don't seem to be high enough yet...unless we get lucky and I don't think that's 
in the cards...lol.  They're selling the rally and not buying the dips.  Walmart and Target came in dismally on earnings and that shook up the defensives big time.  This too in time shall be in our rear view mirror.

Warren Buffett has said, "*The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."*


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## Don M. (May 19, 2022)

I've been reading a lot of reports and "opinions", and the consensus seems to be that the markets will go down another 15 to 25% from these current levels.  Most of the "experts" are expecting a full recession before things begin to turn around.  Inflation and moves by the FED will be among the biggest factors of when/if things turn around. 
In recent days, even stores like Target and Walmart have missed their expectations, which may be an indication that consumers are starting to wise up and limit their unnecessary spending. 
It may be well into 2023 before we see any real stability in the markets.


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## dseag2 (May 19, 2022)

Some of the financial "experts" have predicted a possible recession in late 2023.  That could mean the market could continue declining.  If the old rules prevail, the market typically responds 6 months in advance of any current situation.  Could that mean that we will not see increases until 2024?  Or is that rule out the window these days?

I have seen a pretty active number of brokerage trades in my account recently.  I'm sure my financial advisor is buying up some of the stocks/funds that have been hard hit and will eventually rebound.  

I am doing my best between savings and Social Security to not withdraw anything from my investments, but it will soon become impossible.  I just keep telling myself how much I GAINED in 2021.


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## Alligatorob (May 19, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> Two rules I have learned about the American stock market is 1. Nobody can predict the stock market!  2. Anyone who says they can predict the market is a charlatan and you should take your money and run away from them.


I have a third rule, My predictions are always wrong...  Been proven several times.


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## SeniorBen (May 19, 2022)

Looks like there's support in the DJIA between 29k and 30k from early 2020. If it drops below that, watch out!

Personally, I don't believe there's going to be a big crash. I think we might get into some churning for a year or so, but the economy is strong, even with high inflation.

Health care has been a major driver of the economy for the past decade or so with aging boomers and all our ailments, and that's not going to let up.

Tech is going to continue to be strong.

There's a severe housing shortage, so construction is going to continue to be strong.

So all the ingredients are there to keep the economy robust, but things may level out a bit. That's my opinion, anyway.


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## HarryHawk (May 20, 2022)

SeniorBen said:


> economy is strong


It's unlike any booming economy I have ever seen.  Record high energy prices with a possibility of widespread energy shortages, broken supply chain resulting in hungry babies, labor shortages, possible looming recession, etc.  That coupled with a wide open southern border, rising crime, possible ongoing pandemic, international chaos, etc  I don't see a whole lot going right and nothing to indicate that the issues are soon to be resolved.


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## mathjak107 (May 22, 2022)

I have no idea what’s next .

we won’t know if we are in a recession until July …we already had one quarter of negative gdp ..you need two quarters to meet the definition


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## Harry Le Hermit (May 22, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> you need two quarters to meet the definition


It's no longer defined in that manner, according to the NBER. Q1 and Q2 of 2020 was not defined as a recession.


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## JonSR77 (May 22, 2022)

I think the situation in Ukraine is going to have a powerful impact on the entire global economy for a long time.  Certainly until it ends and probably awhile after that.

I would just exercise caution.

And whatever would effects the Ukraine war is producing, I would try to protect your finances from them. I don't know what that would entail, but someone out there should know.


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## Don M. (May 22, 2022)

I think the markets have more "downside"....perhaps at least another 10% before they begin to stabilize.  Fuel prices, and the inflation that is causing, show no signs of declining, and may stay quite high for many more months....hopefully not years.  Summer usually sees the markets going down a bit, then rising as Fall/Winter arrives.  However, as current conditions continue, the Summer losses may be much more.  

The markets generally look attractive when the CBOE VIX holds at, or below 20.  Last December, the VIX was holding in the teens, and the markets were making nice gains.  Then, Ukraine hit, fuel prices went ballistic, inflation rose even further, and the VIX hit as high as 35, and has stayed at 30 or higher.  Until that indicator drops nicely, the markets will continue to dive up and down....mostly down.


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## Colleen (May 23, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> I have a third rule, My predictions are always wrong...  Been proven several times.


Ya...me, too   I don't even buy a lottery ticket or go to the casino any more.


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## Liberty (May 24, 2022)

"Nobody knows nothing"
-John Bogle


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## OneEyedDiva (May 24, 2022)

Liberty said:


> That's what we do...have a good dividend growth fund!


That and the utility funds hold up pretty well during these down markets Liberty. I have two of them and they make up 17% of my equity portfolio. I also have shares of Canon (CAJ) which is based in Japan and it's share prices have not been affected by these downturns.


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