# Percentages re: infection rate?



## chic (Dec 21, 2020)

I've never heard this mentioned anywhere else before, and I wonder what is the percentage of infection rate with covid? Out of 1,000 people who are exposed to covid, how many will actually get sick? 

Thank you. You can say "I don't know" of you dont, because I don't know either.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

Chic. I'd be very surprised to know that a scientific percentage exists related to, account variable factors differing from group to group. 

i.e. One group of a 1000 may have a 75% ratio of people over the age of 80, whereas the next group of 1000 may have a 90% ratio of people under the age of 50.

Add in other scenarios such as the first group being of the risque crowd... not masking, not practicing social distancing, mingling among large crowds of people/events, etc, with the second group of 1000 following guidelines to a T.


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

I wonder if they can actually put a number to that with all the asymptomatic cases.


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## asp3 (Dec 21, 2020)

I don't think there is enough information to calculate the infection rate.  As well as the age and behavior factors that @Aunt Marg mentioned one also has to consider the environment (indoors, outdoors, size of building if indoors) the activities that some or all of the people are participating in and how long they're all together.

For example one early super spreader event was a chorus event in France but I can't seem to find an article about it now.  However here's a CDC article about a super spreader chorus practice in Washington where one person was infected when it occured and 60 people were exposed, there were 32 confirmed cases, 20 suspected cases, three hospitalizations and two deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm

The article is excellent and gives a lot of information.  I didn't read the whole thing but it looks like a good article.


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## win231 (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> I wonder if they can actually put a number to that with all the asymptomatic cases.


^^^ Bingo, they can't.  That's how they're getting the crazy numbers they're reporting.  They're counting every positive test as an "Infection Case."  And every positive case in someone who died as a Covid death; regardless of what someone died of.
Add to that the unreliability of the test.


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## Don M. (Dec 21, 2020)

This virus is so rampant and growing daily that there aren't really any Firm statistics to rely on.  Here is a summation of the number of cases, per State, as of a few days ago.  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/

Perhaps, months from now, IF the vaccines slow this illness down, that statisticians may be able to supply more accurate numbers.


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

win231 said:


> ^^^ Bingo, they can't.  That's how they're getting the crazy numbers they're reporting.  They're counting every positive test as an "Infection Case."  And every positive case in someone who died as a Covid death; regardless of what someone died of.
> Add to that the unreliability of the test.


I can definitely agree with the unreliability. I read somewhere that the saliva tests are better. But here's an example of how unreliable those tests are...we had a cook that got sent home to quarantine because his wife has covid. Now...keep in mind she's been sick for a month now. she had 4 tests and they all came back negative. the dr told her she had pneumonia. WRONG!!!!!!!!! she's now tested positive and he worked all month like that. he was having troubles breathing so they gave him an inhaler when he's probably been running around with covid all this time.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> I can definitely agree with the unreliability. I read somewhere that the saliva tests are better. But here's an example of how unreliable those tests are...we had a cook that got sent home to quarantine because his wife has covid. Now...keep in mind she's been sick for a month now. she had 4 tests and they all came back negative. the dr told her she had pneumonia. WRONG!!!!!!!!! she's now tested positive and he worked all month like that. he was having troubles breathing so they gave him an inhaler when he's probably been running around with covid all this time.


Your employer should be fined and shutdown as a result of negligence related to.


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## win231 (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> I can definitely agree with the unreliability. I read somewhere that the saliva tests are better. But here's an example of how unreliable those tests are...we had a cook that got sent home to quarantine because his wife has covid. Now...keep in mind she's been sick for a month now. she had 4 tests and they all came back negative. the dr told her she had pneumonia. WRONG!!!!!!!!! she's now tested positive and he worked all month like that. he was having troubles breathing so they gave him an inhaler when he's probably been running around with covid all this time.


And, Mr. Elon Musk had 19 Covid tests, just to test reliability.  Around half were negative, half were positive.  Can't be both......
Oh.........great pun there.  "Positive & Negative".....just like his batteries.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

win231 said:


> And, Mr. Elon Musk had 19 Covid tests, just to test reliability.  Around half were negative, half were positive.  Can't be both......
> Oh.........great pun there.  "Positive & Negative".....just like his batteries.


Nor can Mr. Musk, be _charged_ for _discharging_ the virus.


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

Aunt Marg said:


> Your employer should be fined and shutdown as a result of negligence related to.


I will agree with the "fined" part but not the "shut down" part because this is the only hospital we have.


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## win231 (Dec 21, 2020)

Aunt Marg said:


> Nor can Mr. Musk, be _charged_ for _discharging_ the virus.


Or causing any terminal cases.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> I will agree with the "fined" part but not the "shut down" part because *this is the only hospital we have*.


Understandable.

Will say there needs to be more pro-active accountability.


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

it's tough to do when your employer politely invites you to find your way to the door if you don't feel safe. i piss everyone off cuz i run around telling them to pull their frickin masks up. lol!


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> *it's tough to do when your employer politely invites you to find your way to the door if you don't feel safe*. i piss everyone off cuz i run around telling them to pull their frickin masks up. lol!


Are you referring to dismissal, or are you talking simply seeing a concerned employee to the door to relieve them of any stress associated with Covid-19?


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

i mean dismissal


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

i said something a couple times and was told if i didn't feel safe that i was more than welcomed to leave. that i had to do what was best for me.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> i mean dismissal


That's where governing parties are failing workers.

As employees you should be writing up every violation your employer pulls and reporting it.


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

i got even...i'm a pain in the a$$ now. lol!


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> i got even...i'm a pain in the a$$ now. lol!


But that doesn't protect the health and well-being of your fellow employees.

Safety in numbers. If you all banned together as one and brought violations, workplace threats, intimidation, and scare tactics to light, you'd be securing a more safe and friendly environment to work in, while promoting accountability on the part of your employer.


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## win231 (Dec 21, 2020)

I worked in a big aerospace plant for 3 years, back in the 80's.  I had to breathe second-hand  smoke from my supervisor & another employee for 8 hours/day, 5 days/week.  I had a bad headache every weekend.  I probably had such a bad reaction to smoke because I had quit smoking a few years earlier.
Then, laws were passed in the workplace that said any employee had the right to demand a smoke-free work environment - which was a really stupid way to structure the law because it created problems among employees who smoked & those who didn't smoke.
My supervisor immediately warned me that _"If I asked for a smoke-free work environment, my services would no longer be needed."_


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

win231 said:


> I worked in a big aerospace plant for 3 years, back in the 80's.  I had to breathe second-hand  smoke from my supervisor & another employee for 8 hours/day, 5 days/week.  I had a bad headache every weekend.  I probably had such a bad reaction to smoke because I had quit smoking a few years earlier.
> Then, laws were passed in the workplace that said any employee had the right to demand a smoke-free work environment - which was a really stupid way to structure the law because it created problems among employees who smoked & those who didn't smoke.
> My supervisor immediately warned me that _"If I asked for a smoke-free work environment, my services would no longer be needed."_


We're you unionized at the time, Win?


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## MarciKS (Dec 21, 2020)

one of the cooks is so mad that he got covid he's planning to go straight to the ceo's office when he gets back to work.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 21, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> one of the cooks is so mad that he got covid he's planning to go straight to the ceo's office when he gets back to work.


The problem with that is, all that will be extended to the cook is lip-service.

In order to make strides you have to document workplace violations and then present it to your union or other officials that will act on it.


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## MarciKS (Dec 22, 2020)

Aunt Marg said:


> The problem with that is, all that will be extended to the cook is lip-service.
> 
> In order to make strides you have to document workplace violations and then present it to your union or other officials that will act on it.


We have no union and nobody is gonna act on it because they don't give a crap. All they're concerned about is having bodies to fill the shifts and help them earn their money.


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## Aunt Marg (Dec 22, 2020)

MarciKS said:


> We have no union and nobody is gonna act on it because they don't give a crap. All they're concerned about is having bodies to fill the shifts and help them earn their money.


That's a shame...


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## Sunny (Dec 22, 2020)

It's probably very hard to pin down infection percentage rates in general. But one statistic I keep seeing is the number of deaths and hospitalizations, analyzed by age of patient. Obviously, the overwhelming number of really bad outcomes is from older people, apparently the older the worse.  I think they've got a pretty good handle on that, numerically.

Which is why the CDC is recommending that frontline workers and people over 75 should be next in line for the vaccine.


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## Victor (Dec 22, 2020)

A very good question that I studied from the start. The media, health experts are silent on this.
The answers are fairly clear and easy to figure, up to a general estimation.  It is not mentioned because authorities want the public to follow all their advice and laws. The rate of infection and deaths is determined by dividing the population in (your county, state, city or nation) into the number of cases therein. It is plain statistics. I advise narrowing this to your age category, possibly race and gender, if applicable. That takes research in the census. I figured my percents in March and it has not changed, significantly. Factored in my age group, gender and location by county and state. I am in a high-risk group because of my health. Estimated  about .0006 of one percent of infection and much less for chances of death. Of course, this is not exact by any means. Gives you a rough estimate.. If the news and health authorities talked about this, people would become more lax and not follow their rules (masks, social distance). So I am glad they say nothing--it's for the best. A few months ago, the New York Times had a long article on this. I thought the chances would rise as the virus spikes up but it has not happened. Cases may be actually larger and smaller with deaths.
Where I live only 19 people, mostly over 80 have died in nursing homes, out of 14,000 pop. Still, everyone takes it very seriously, as if they would die without their masks.
    I have told this to many people, including forums, and no one gets it. They don't understand because they are so scared. I am not making it up. Do the easy math. I won a medical writing contest about COVID--with this data.


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## Don M. (Dec 22, 2020)

Trying to get accurate numbers on this virus is a real chore.  Just recently, our State found that the number have been underreported.  They did a recalculation of the numbers from August thru November, and found that the actual number of cases and deaths from this virus were about 5% more than had been previously reported.  Either way, its a mess, and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.


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