# Stock Market Outlook



## oldmontana (May 31, 2020)

With covid19 and the protests I think we will see the market take a dive.  Just look at how almost all business sectors are effected and the effect they have on other businesses, not that hard to see.


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## Pecos (May 31, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> With covid19 and the protests I think we will see the market take a dive.  Just look at how almost all business sectors are effected and the effect they have on other businesses, not that hard to see.


I agree and am bracing for some financial disappointment next week.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 1, 2020)

monday morning stock futures up 120 .. we could down later , or up later .trying to predict markets is like trying to predict next weeks weather..


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## Aunt Bea (Jun 1, 2020)




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## fmdog44 (Jun 1, 2020)

Define "Take a dive."


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 1, 2020)

The NASDAQ is not far from it's 52 week high. The S & P is about 300 points from it's high, not a deep dive for that index. The Dow is still about 3,000 points lower than it's 52 week high. I still believe we will see the markets see-sawing until the overall effects of CV-19 start to resolve.  Who knows how long that will be. I've read that in the meantime people are adding more to their savings/emergency funds.


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## Don M. (Jun 1, 2020)

It would take a "prophet" to accurately predict this current stock market.  Between the CV-19 virus, these recent violent protests, and some questionable decisions coming out of Washington, one might as well flip a coin.  The "experts" appear to be about equally divided between their predictions of a major upswing, or a major recession coming.  
About all the average investor can do, during this uncertainty, is to be well diversified, and have a strong stomach.


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## fmdog44 (Jun 3, 2020)

Even the experts are puzzled at this market. It is rising without fundamental basis. What is it tied to now? The economy? The CV-19 virus? China tensions? All I know is many are making some of their money back but putting a finger on "why" is a mystery to me.


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## Pecos (Jun 3, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Even the experts are puzzled at this market. It is rising without fundamental basis. What is it tied to now? The economy? The CV-19 virus? China tensions? All I know is many are making some of their money back but putting a finger on "why" is a mystery to me.


It is a big mystery to me as well. It just doesn't make logical sense, …. but that is the market.


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## fmdog44 (Jun 5, 2020)

Today' Dow ended at 27,110.98 On Jan 02,2020 it closed at 28,868.80


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## Been There (Jun 7, 2020)

With more states going green and reopening businesses, I would expect an overall rise in the markets. Maybe not day over day, but perhaps a rise in the 20 or 30-day moving average. These facts along with another stimulus bill on the horizon, there is not much of a reason why we would be pessimistic about the markets. The only worry would be is if we would see a spike due to the criminal’s riots. If that should happen, a second round of the virus may be worse than the first round was because the criminals were scattered all over the U.S. and not contained in any one or two areas.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 7, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Today' Dow ended at 27,110.98 On Jan 02,2020 it closed at 28,868.80


The Dow numbers include no dividends so the numbers do not reflect actual performance of the Dow ..same with the s&p 500 ..in some years you would be not counting as much as 1/3 of the gains


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## Leann (Jun 8, 2020)

At 64, I've ridden the stock market roller coaster too many times and need to get off. Bonds, CDs and money market accounts aren't as attractive because interest rates are so low but I'm afraid to stay with stocks for fear that I'll be wiped out with too little time left to recover.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 9, 2020)

Leann said:


> At 64, I've ridden the stock market roller coaster too many times and need to get off. Bonds, CDs and money market accounts aren't as attractive because interest rates are so low but I'm afraid to stay with stocks for fear that I'll be wiped out with too little time left to recover.


you can be hurt bad by inflation , that is the same as losing it .

  a 50/50 portfolio has never ever lost a penny in any 10 or 20 year period .

at 64 you have 25-30 years of time before you need to eat with your long term money ...that should be in  diversified funds ..not for nothing but if the s&p 500 GOT WIPED OUT  as you speak you got a lot more to worry about then your balance .

but you gotta do what you got to do but that thinking is really fear and non sense


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## fmdog44 (Jun 9, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> The Dow numbers include no dividends so the numbers do not reflect actual performance of the Dow ..same with the s&p 500 ..in some years you would be not counting as much as 1/3 of the gains


The numbers are given to show the "numbers." Dividends have no place here.


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## fmdog44 (Jun 9, 2020)

Leann said:


> At 64, I've ridden the stock market roller coaster too many times and need to get off. Bonds, CDs and money market accounts aren't as attractive because interest rates are so low but I'm afraid to stay with stocks for fear that I'll be wiped out with too little time left to recover.


I have bought out of fear of not owning and have reduced my positions now due to age/time of recovery form a steep fall. What we are experiencing now is as 100% of the investors on CNBC are saying on 06/09/20, puzzling to the point of caution. Some stocks are up 100+points in a day and week (look at airlines & hotel & cruise lines) "This is crazy" is what all four of four are saying this morning and are saying they will not advise on buying in or bailing out. We have seen a major dip then overnight a nuclear comeback that no one can justify. Did we just see the shortest bull market in history? Is this now the beginning of a 5-7 bull market?


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## fmdog44 (Jun 9, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> you can be hurt bad by inflation , that is the same as losing it .
> 
> a 50/50 portfolio has never ever lost a penny in any 10 or 20 year period .
> 
> ...


Who are you to call someone's thinking nonsense which you misspelled? Since when is the average American life span 89-94 years?


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## Aunt Bea (Jun 9, 2020)

It's been an interesting sometimes scary few months.

I have made no changes this year and am now within 1% of where I started the year.

IMO it's best to stick with a basic plan and try to tune out as much of the noise as you can.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 9, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Who are you to call someone's thinking nonsense which you misspelled? Since when is the average American life span 89-94 years?


Who said anything about average lifespan ...I don’t see anything there that says average ....the reality is that there is a 73% chance one in a couple will see 85 ..for some one who retired at 62 that is  23 years ...there is almost a 50% chance that one in a couple will see 90 ..that is 28 years.

there is a 54% chance a woman will see 85 if she is single  ....

so YES , AT 62 there is still long term money that won’t be used to eat for 20-30 years.

like I said people will do what what they want  to do , but many also fail to realize that for someone living off their portfolio with fixed income only they may be setting them selves up for the Failed retirement graveyard....no one ever lost a penny in a 50/50 portfolio with diversified funds over any 10 or 20 year period ...but lots of retirees failed to have their money last as long as they did   by trying to hide in fixed income .

as humans statistics mean little ....we only have two outcomes , we are dead or we are alive ....

do you know who of us will be dead and who will be alive regardless of statistics ?.. I know I don’t ...so good planning has to assume it’s us or our spouse who live to older ages .

if  I misspelled any words to bad ....and yes , being driven by fear and exhibiting poor investor behavior because of it  is nonsense ....oops non sense


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 9, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Who said anything about average lifespan ...I don’t see anything there that says average ....the reality is that there is a 73% chance one in a couple will see 85 ..for some one who retired at 62 that is  23 years ...there is almost a 50% chance that one in a couple will see 90 ..that is 28 years ....
> 
> so YES , AT 62 there is still long term money that won’t be used to eat for 20-30 years.
> 
> ...


@fmdog44  My mother lived to be 97, my father 84. His father 99. My grandmother 85, a cousin who died recently of Covid..would have celebrated his 100th birthday in July. I know several people who look fantastic and are in great health who are in their 80s.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 9, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> @fmdog44  My mother lived to be 97, my father 84. His father 99. My grandmother 85, a cousin who died recently of Covid..would have celebrated his 100th birthday in July. I know several people who look fantastic and are in great health who are in their 80s.


Exactly ...stats mean nothing to us humans without knowing who of us is dead and who is going on to older ages .

we have to plan for the fact it is us  or our spouse who live or else we will face the consequences of planning poorly.

it has zero do do with some statistical average age , even average means half go on longer ..which group are all of you in ?....


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## Leann (Jun 9, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> you can be hurt bad by inflation , that is the same as losing it .
> 
> a 50/50 portfolio has never ever lost a penny in any 10 or 20 year period .
> 
> ...



I'm not financially confident so I do the best I can to preserve the money I have. I realize my approach is conservative but it's where I feel most comfortable.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 9, 2020)

Apple is up 271% since I bought shares at the IPO price and Facebook is up 568%. I *really* wish I'd bought more of each! My other investments, except one ETF, are in positive territory, even with the dips and dives of the market.


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## fmdog44 (Jun 9, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Who said anything about average lifespan *...*I don’t see anything there that says average *....*the reality is that there is a 73% chance one in a couple will see 85* ..*for some one who retired at 62 that is  23 years *...*there is almost a 50% chance that one in a couple will see 90 ..that is 28 years.
> *You did by offering up a span of years
> 
> t*here is a 54% chance a woman will see 85 if she is single*  ....
> ...


By the way you babble about being self taught about investing. You never said you failed to graduate. Too bad. Grab a shovel.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 10, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> By the way you babble about being self taught about investing. You never said you failed to graduate. Too bad. Grab a shovel.


I  have no idea what you are babbling about ..   facts are facts , data is data , bad investor behavior is just that ..  2/3's of all rolling  30 year retirement cycles to date have failed trying to support even 4% with only fixed income..it can be very dangerous and facts show that fact .

doing things out of fear and emotions in investing  is never wise ....making decisions strategically and tactic wise is fine , but when it is based on emotions and fear it is never wise

..try learning before arguing ., or are you just the spelling police ?


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## mathjak107 (Jun 10, 2020)

for those who want to see how going fixed income  did over the 120 rolling 30 year periods we had to date  , here you go ..this is at a mere 4% inflation adjusted draw ...a success rate under 90% is considered to unsafe to consider . fixed income with no equities has a 44% success rate .that is awful .


FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-526,987 to $2,317,282, with an average at the end of $177,238. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 67 cycles failed, for a success rate of 44.2%.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

on the other hand 50/50 has a 95% success rate . in 90% of the cases you ended with more than you started .


FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-223,952 to $4,145,063, with an average at the end of $1,150,277. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 6 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.0%.
---------------------------------------------------------------
35% equities did well too .....

FIRECalc looked at the 120 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 120 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-173,739 to $3,558,380, with an average at the end of $791,616. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 12 cycles failed, for a success rate of 90.0%.


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## Em in Ohio (Jun 11, 2020)

_S&P 500__
3,002.10
-188.04(-5.89%)_
_Dow 30
25,128.17
-1,861.82(-6.90%)_
_Nasdaq
9,492.73
-527.62(-5.27%)_
_Russell 2000
1,356.22
-111.17(-7.58%)_
 

_Didn't this thread start with a prediction of a dive?  Is this it?  Seems like a lot to me._


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## mathjak107 (Jun 11, 2020)

nasty day ....so what else is new .... just another day in the long term scheme of things


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## Em in Ohio (Jun 11, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> nasty day ....so what else is new .... just another day in the long term scheme of things


Some of us don't have time to think long term.  Do you know what the biggest 'dive' has been since the start of 2020?


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## oldmontana (Jun 11, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> _S&P 500__
> 3,002.10
> -188.04(-5.89%)_
> _Dow 30
> ...


Yes, this was a dive.  With some talking about unemployment being at 9% at the end of the year the market might keep going down.

But remember its not a stock market its a market of stocks.  Some sectors will do better than others, same with stocks.


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## fmdog44 (Jun 11, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> I  have no idea what you are babbling about ..   facts are facts , data is data , bad investor behavior is just that ..  2/3's of all rolling  30 year retirement cycles to date have failed trying to support even 4% with only fixed income..it can be very dangerous and facts show that fact .
> 
> doing things out of fear and emotions in investing  is never wise ....making decisions strategically and tactic wise is fine , but when it is based on emotions and fear it is never wise
> 
> ..try learning before arguing ., or are you just the spelling police ?


Chew on it


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## Don M. (Jun 11, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> nasty day ....so what else is new .... just another day in the long term scheme of things



I can't recall a time when there was more uncertainty in the market than exists today.  In the more recent past, there seemed to be One primary reason for market volatility....The Dot Com crisis, the Housing Market crisis, etc.,  But this year, we are hit with this Virus with no end in sight, and these recent protests which have turned the country upside down.  The Fed seems to have run out of "ammunition", and there are increasing predictions of continued high unemployment.  These wild upswings in the markets seem to be guided by little more than "emotion", followed by even more uncertainty, and conflicting opinions from the "experts" almost daily.  What a Mess!


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## Em in Ohio (Jun 11, 2020)

Don M. said:


> I can't recall a time when there was more uncertainty in the market than exists today.  In the more recent past, there seemed to be One primary reason for market volatility....The Dot Com crisis, the Housing Market crisis, etc.,  But this year, we are hit with this Virus with no end in sight, and these recent protests which have turned the country upside down.  The Fed seems to have run out of "ammunition", and there are increasing predictions of continued high unemployment.  These wild upswings in the markets seem to be guided by little more than "emotion", followed by even more uncertainty, and conflicting opinions from the "experts" almost daily.  What a Mess!


I'm glad it's not just me who is confused as to why it does sudden rises in the midst of chaos and is then followed by steep falls.  My miniscule nestegg notwithstanding, I am getting dizzy from this roller-coaster ride.  I do wish that I had pulled out my few bucks when my job terminated - at least, I would feel secure knowing it is in the bank.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 12, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> I'm glad it's not just me who is confused as to why it does sudden rises in the midst of chaos and is then followed by steep falls.  My miniscule nestegg notwithstanding, I am getting dizzy from this roller-coaster ride.  I do wish that I had pulled out my few bucks when my job terminated - at least, I would feel secure knowing it is in the bank.


the 24 open states are seeing spikes now  in the virus and the fed forcasted a drop of 6.50% gdp ... it spooked things .


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## mathjak107 (Jun 12, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Chew on it




still babbling i see .

i have never personally attacked you yet  you have been doing it to me .. calling poor investor behavior nonsense is certainly not a personal attack on them .. but for some reason you cant  stop yourself from taking things to a personal level .  

don't like my posts , dont read em ... simple answer ..


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## fmdog44 (Jun 13, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> still babbling i see .
> 
> i have never personally attacked you yet  you have been doing it to me .. calling poor investor behavior nonsense is certainly not a personal attack on them .. but for some reason you cant  stop yourself from taking things to a personal level .
> 
> don't like my posts , dont read em ... simple answer ..


"The time to buy stocks is when the price per shares is at its highest."
-You
And as for attacks you try to degrade anyone that disagrees with your take on a subject and you try to support you posts with useless graphs and charts because you can't express your position and there is a reason for that.
Last, since when is "em" a word?


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## fmdog44 (Jun 13, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> _S&P 500__
> 3,002.10
> -188.04(-5.89%)_
> _Dow 30
> ...


Just another bump in the road in the world of finance.


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## oldmontana (Jun 13, 2020)

Don M. said:


> I can't recall a time when there was more uncertainty in the market than exists today.  In the more recent past, there seemed to be One primary reason for market volatility....The Dot Com crisis, the Housing Market crisis, etc.,  But this year, we are hit with this Virus with no end in sight, and these recent protests which have turned the country upside down.  The Fed seems to have run out of "ammunition", and there are increasing predictions of continued high unemployment.  These wild upswings in the markets seem to be guided by little more than "emotion", followed by even more uncertainty, and conflicting opinions from the "experts" almost daily.  What a Mess!


Yes, it is a mess and I think it will be that way for months.  The end of the "mess" will be when we have a vaccine or the number of new cases drops to near zero.

Hope for the best prepare for the worst.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 13, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Who cares?


not you .. you have no interest in learning  from data and facts, you only want to go by what you think


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## mathjak107 (Jun 13, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> "The time to buy stocks is when the price per shares is at its highest."
> -You
> And as for attacks you try to degrade anyone that disagrees with your take on a subject and you try to support you posts with useless graphs and charts because you can't express your position and there is a reason for that.
> Last, since when is "em" a word?


no,    i introduce facts , figures and studies ... i don't go believing my own bull-sh*t and then tell others they are wrong when facts say otherwise like a few here do ...


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## fmdog44 (Jun 14, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> not you .. you have no interest in learning  from data and facts, you only want to go by what you think


Learn..from you? HA!!!


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## Em in Ohio (Jun 14, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> "...Last, since when is "em" a word?



Aside from my name, given to me by my father who was a typesetter....

_noun_

PRINTING


a unit for measuring the width of printed matter, equal to the height of the type size being used.

a unit of measurement equal to twelve points.     ~ Em


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## mathjak107 (Jun 15, 2020)

buying high and selling higher has made way more money for investors than trying to catch lows ...

most investors are not good at buying in plunging markets ... the trend aint your friend when it is going lower and lower  and  an investors prone to poor behavior will bail out ,sell or hit stop losses .

however the trend on the way up is a good friend to have as bad behavior is less likely


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## mathjak107 (Jun 15, 2020)

Em in Ohio said:


> Aside from my name, given to me by my father who was a typesetter....
> 
> _noun_
> 
> ...



i use em a lot in scarbble


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## mathjak107 (Jun 15, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Learn..from you? HA!!!


then put me on ignore . no point you reading my posts then ,.   simple answer ....


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 23, 2020)

Facebook is less than $3 lower than it's 52 week high. Apple is only a couple of dollars lower than it's 52 week high. Portfolio is looking decent again. But who knows if another wave of CV-19 hits.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 24, 2020)

the index's are reflecting the fact that the big weighted stocks are not the ones being hit hard like the economy is .

25% of the s&p 500 is made up of  internet sales and information services .

if you add up all the hit sectors like  travel , airlines , hotels , energy , leisure and amusements  and restaurants they account for a mere 5% of the index ... since a total market fund is made up of 80% the weight of the s&p 500 too , they show little damage at this point .

the big test will be end of july when not only does the extra 600 unemployment stop but so many corporations have been filing the paper work needed to go from furloughs to massive layoffs and firings .


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## Lethe200 (Jun 24, 2020)

>>the big test will be end of july when not only does the extra 600 unemployment stop but so many corporations have been filing the paper work needed to go from furloughs to massive layoffs and firings . >>

Agree. People are vastly underestimating the job losses that are going to happen - not just with businesses, but also city, county, and state governments. The tax revenue drop-off will be staggering. 

I believe many are required by local law to have a balanced budget? I realize that may not be the case for all municipalities/states.

When an economy is 80% based on consumer spending, but the consumer has no extra to spend, we may have front-row seats at a massive financial train wreck.


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## JB in SC (Jun 25, 2020)

On the horizon are higher taxes at every level and don’t think for one second it’s going to be on just those mean rich people, it will be all of us. The hardest hit will be the middle class seniors with decent savings and retirement benefits.


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## Knight (Jun 25, 2020)

JB in SC said:


> On the horizon are higher taxes at every level and don’t think for one second it’s going to be on just those mean rich people, it will be all of us. The hardest hit will be the middle class seniors with decent savings and retirement benefits.


Seems like a reasonable assessment of whats to come.  Higher U S debt & increased deficit have to be paid by someone, but hey discovery that the stimulus "free money" isn't free might not have sunk in to some.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 26, 2020)

only interest has to be kept up with , the debt can go on forever as long as we are the best horse at the glue factory ...as long as the dollar is strong and the world covets our bonds , it is only interest  that has to be paid .

it isn't a problem until the music stops and you don't get a chair


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## JB in SC (Jun 26, 2020)

Knight said:


> Seems like a reasonable assessment of whats to come.  Higher U S debt & increased deficit have to be paid by someone, but hey discovery that the stimulus "free money" isn't free might not have sunk in to some.



Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?


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## Knight (Jun 26, 2020)

JB in SC said:


> Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?


Not immediately but it isn't rocket science to expect inability to pay. When --- we could all make it a game &  guess.  I'll go with 8 yrs. from now as the beginning of defaults. Debt ins't the problem it's the deficit. The bigger the deficit the bigger the challenge to pay .


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## Don M. (Jun 26, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> only interest has to be kept up with , the debt can go on forever as long as we are the best horse at the glue factory ...as long as the dollar is strong and the world covets our bonds , it is only interest  that has to be paid .
> 
> This year, the "Interest" on the Federal Debt is expected to exceed 470 Billion Dollars.  That is a lot of money that could be used far more productively than paying interest on government bonds, etc.  This massive and increasing debt is the primary reason why the Fed is keeping interest rates at nearly zero, and why savers are seeing little earnings on their money in the bank.
> 
> ...


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## mathjak107 (Jun 26, 2020)

Just look at bond prices on longer term treasuries, demand is soaring ,that is why they are up so much in value..TLT has double digit gains ytd


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## 911 (Jun 26, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Just look at bond prices on longer term treasuries, demand is soaring ,that is why they are up so much in value..TLT has double digit gains ytd


Do you have a specific link that tracks bonds only? If you do, would you mind sharing it?


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## 911 (Jun 26, 2020)

JB in SC said:


> Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?


There was a law years back that cities could use the monies in retirement accounts to pay their bills instead of going bankrupt. Is that still law today? I know about the PBGC, but I don’t know if they would make good on pensions dollar for dollar, if a city were to use pension money.

Our (Pennsylvania State Police) pension fund is fully funded, so there is no worries there. So is the teachers pension fund. As for certain cities, I don’t know their status.

It was explained to us at a pension meeting years ago that pensions are a benefit. If you are in a union, the pensioner’s numbers are figured out for each individual person. But, if a problem would arise, a pension is a benefit that can always be renegotiated. I don’t know if that’s true or not.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 26, 2020)

911 said:


> Do you have a specific link that tracks bonds only? If you do, would you mind sharing it?



I  use TLT  , WHICH IS A LONG TERM TREASURY BOND ETF   AND I USE SHY  which is a short term treasury bond etf .  i own loads of both .

TLT IS UP 26% OVER THE 1 YEAR AND 22% YTD .

SHY IS UP 3.90% OVER THE ONE YEAR AND 2.90 YTD


there is also IEF which tracks the 7-10 year treasuries , i do not own this one . UP 12.36% OVER THE ONE YEAR , AND 11% YTD


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## JB in SC (Jun 26, 2020)

911 said:


> There was a law years back that cities could use the monies in retirement accounts to pay their bills instead of going bankrupt. Is that still law today? I know about the PBGC, but I don’t know if they would make good on pensions dollar for dollar, if a city were to use pension money.
> 
> Our (Pennsylvania State Police) pension fund is fully funded, so there is no worries there. So is the teachers pension fund. As for certain cities, I don’t know their status.
> 
> It was explained to us at a pension meeting years ago that pensions are a benefit. If you are in a union, the pensioner’s numbers are figured out for each individual person. But, if a problem would arise, a pension is a benefit that can always be renegotiated. I don’t know if that’s true or not.



Take California as an example, the largest state pension in the US is only 66% funded as of 2018. Pennsylvania is only 55% funded. The issue is the rate of growth these pensions use, in some cases 11%. Now I’d love to find a way to earn 11% every year without risk. While some individual pensions and a few states may be funded for now, they may fall behind in future years without large tax increases.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 27, 2020)

JB in SC said:


> Not because of federal debt necessarily. All cities and states are losing tax revenue and hardly ever reduce spending unless constitutionally mandated. Increased property taxes, sales taxes, and creation of wealth or use taxes are likely. Underfunded pensions are billions and billions in the red, do you think they will be cutting those?


The State of N.J. has one of the pensions that is billions in arrears. After reading about some funds that drastically cut pension payments (these were municipal though), I began to make preparations in case N.J. cuts ours in half. According to the article below, N.J. is in the most underfunded of any pension fund in the country having only 38.4% of what it needs to pay benefits to we retirees. Another article mentioned our pension fund losing 13% due to the coronavirus, putting it in even worse shape with the loss of more billions. 
https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/09...-is-the-worst-funded-in-the-nation-again.html


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## mathjak107 (Jun 27, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> The State of N.J. has one of the pensions that is billions in arrears. After reading about some funds that drastically cut pension payments (these were municipal though), I began to make preparations in case N.J. cuts ours in half. According to the article below, N.J. is in the most underfunded of any pension fund in the country having only 38.4% of what it needs to pay benefits to we retirees. Another article mentioned our pension fund taking a big hit due to the coronavirus, putting it in even worse shape.
> https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/09...-is-the-worst-funded-in-the-nation-again.html


not surprised ... our kids live in new jersey ... i don't even like going to new jersey .....  i finally figured out why the GW bridge charges you to leave jersey ...it's worth it   lol


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 27, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> not surprised ... our kids live in new jersey ... i don't even like going to new jersey .....  i finally figured out why the GW bridge charges you to leave jersey ...it's worth it   lol


Heyyy...leave my state alone!  LOL     N.Y.'s tolls have just gotten to be ridiculous. I like Jersey. I'd like it better if it was warm year round though. Certain parts are definitely better than others. I hate going to Manhattan!! It's filthy, too busy and parking is a nightmare. And because of that I skipped several plays I would have liked to have seen.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 27, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Heyyy...leave my state alone!  LOL     N.Y.'s tolls have just gotten to be ridiculous. I like Jersey. I'd like it better if it was warm year round though. Certain parts are definitely better than others. I hate going to Manhattan!! It's filthy, too busy and parking is a nightmare. And because of that I skipped several plays I would have liked to have seen.


us too . we go maybe 2 or 3x  a year to manhattan and we live only 25 minutes away  in bay terrace queens .   we used to own a lot of co-op apartments by central park but never lived there .

tolls to see the kids must run us a few thousand a year  since two bridges are involved .  the kids are near Montclair


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 27, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> us too . we go maybe 2 or 3x  a year to manhattan and we live only 25 minutes away  in bay terrace queens .   we used to own a lot of co-op apartments by central park but never lived there .
> 
> tolls to see the kids must run us a few thousand a year  since two bridges are involved .  the kids are near Montclair


That's an awful lot in tolls MJ!! Montclair is a cute little town. My husband and I used to go to Trumpets Jazz club and Taaj's Palace Indian food restaurant. One evening we just strolled around a bit after dinner.


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## mathjak107 (Jun 27, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> That's an awful lot in tolls MJ!! Montclair is a cute little town. My husband and I used to go to Trumpets Jazz club and Taaj's Palace Indian food restaurant. One evening we just strolled around a bit after dinner.


it sure is a lot .... the throgs neck bridge is 13 dollars back and forth ,  the GW  bridge is 13.75 and those are E-Z PASS RATES ...SO  it looks like over a thousand a year for tolls just for them . not counting seeing our kids in westchester or going to the ny botanical gardens or bronx zoo which we go to frequently and require the bridge . so i would say we do about 2k in tolls a year .


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