# Hey Hey Hey   The Market Is Looking Good



## Lon (May 25, 2016)

It's nice to see my IRA account and other investments moving up nicely & I would sure like to see it continue.

How about you?


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## Guitarist (May 25, 2016)

The market here is looking good too.  Nice fresh fruits and veggies!


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## Bobw235 (May 25, 2016)

Lon said:


> It's nice to see my IRA account and other investments moving up nicely & I would sure like to see it continue.
> 
> How about you?



Lon, while I like seeing this, I am trusting my financial advisor who says the market is way overpriced and the technical indicators don't favor this kind of strength over a long period.  At this stage I'm only about 30% in stocks.


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## Shalimar (May 25, 2016)

Guitarist, I'm with you! Lol.


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## Lon (May 25, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> Lon, while I like seeing this, I am trusting my financial advisor who says the market is way overpriced and the technical indicators don't favor this kind of strength over a long period.  At this stage I'm only about 30% in stocks.



Trusting your financial advisor could be injurious to your financial health. You better check with me before making major financial decisions.


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## Bobw235 (May 25, 2016)

Lon said:


> Bobw235 said:
> 
> 
> > Lon, while I like seeing this, I am trusting my financial advisor who says the market is way overpriced and the technical indicators don't favor this kind of strength over a long period.  At this stage I'm only about 30% in stocks.
> ...



That's okay.  He's done well for me for many years and I trust his expertise.  A fee only provider who doesn't try to sell me anything.  While in the short term the market looks favorable, it's trading in a pretty narrow range and at a high valuation historically.  I'm pretty conservative right now, but with a strategy that's geared towards taking advantage of a potential downturn.  I don't think the fundamentals support a sustained rally in the market, thus unless you're willing to trade frequently in and out of stocks, I'm more comfortable with a strategy that lowers risk while providing an acceptable return.


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## Lon (May 25, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> That's okay.  He's done well for me for many years and I trust his expertise.  A fee only provider who doesn't try to sell me anything.  While in the short term the market looks favorable, it's trading in a pretty narrow range and at a high valuation historically.  I'm pretty conservative right now, but with a strategy that's geared towards taking advantage of a potential downturn.  I don't think the fundamentals support a sustained rally in the market, thus unless you're willing to trade frequently in and out of stocks, I'm more comfortable with a strategy that lowers risk while providing an acceptable return.



You are a smart investor.


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## Bobw235 (May 25, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> You are a smart investor.


Thanks Lon.  I've done okay over the years, but haven't had the time necessary to take advantage of major market moves and guard against serious losses, so I went with my current guy several years ago.  Happy to share with you his newsletter if you're interested, as I know you used to be in financial services.  Let me know and I'll shoot you a link.


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## Lon (May 25, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> Thanks Lon.  I've done okay over the years, but haven't had the time necessary to take advantage of major market moves and guard against serious losses, so I went with my current guy several years ago.  Happy to share with you his newsletter if you're interested, as I know you used to be in financial services.  Let me know and I'll shoot you a link.



I have been a big fan of Vanguard over the years and a died in the wool Bogglehead


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## Don M. (May 25, 2016)

My IRA is in fine shape, and I manage it myself...don't trust any "financial advisers".  I am following the news closely...WSJ, CNBC, etc., and am ready to jump into the money market at any time.  With Summer coming, and this being an election year, I won't be surprised if the markets take a major dip in the near future.  There is very little news to support a growing market...I think the gains this past couple of days are related to stability in the oil markets.  However, unemployment, a slump in housing, and a probably Fed rate hike soon will initiate a Summer Correction....and some stupid statements coming out of Trumps and Clintons mouths certainly won't help.  

I equate my IRA to playing poker at the casino....how well I do depends upon how well I read the other players...plus a bit of luck.


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## garyt1957 (Jun 8, 2016)

I prefer to stay invested. Timing the market is a losing proposition, for me anyway.  I keep three years expenses in cash so the market has time to recover in any downturn. If it stays down for more than 3 years,we're all in trouble anyway.


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## QuickSilver (Jun 8, 2016)

I have used the same financial advisor for 20 years and he has done very nicely for me.   I don't even pretend to understand the markets..  just like he doesn't try to pretend he knows Nursing..   I trust him and he has said I am very nicely set for retirement at the end of the year.


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## Jackie22 (Jun 8, 2016)

Yes....very nice to see the market going up and up....Most of my retirement is in different accounts with Fidelity, I don't have an advisor, I just try to remember what my late husband taught me.


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## Bobw235 (Jun 8, 2016)

I met with my financial advisor on Monday.

His primary concern right now is that the market is historically at very expensive levels compared to corporate earnings.  He's concerned that we're having lower "highs" on the good days and lower "lows" on the really bad drops.  Essentially the market is unchanged since it's high last May.  Some of the trends they're watching lead them to be cautious, thus they're taking a more conservative approach for the time being.  The main thing is to prevent a huge drop in our portfolio at this stage in our lives.


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## Bobw235 (Jul 1, 2016)

I wanted to pass along this newsletter for anyone who is interested in a more serious look at the market, especially in light of the recent volatility.  Got this from my investment advisor, who takes a rather conservative view of the market these days.  It's a bit technical, but some might appreciate his perspective.  http://www.cadencewm.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Cadence-Clips-May-2016-Keeping-Perspective.pdf


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## garyt1957 (Jul 2, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> I wanted to pass along this newsletter for anyone who is interested in a more serious look at the market, especially in light of the recent volatility.  Got this from my investment advisor, who takes a rather conservative view of the market these days.  It's a bit technical, but some might appreciate his perspective.  http://www.cadencewm.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Cadence-Clips-May-2016-Keeping-Perspective.pdf



 Good article and scary, too.


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## Debby (Jul 4, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> Lon, while I like seeing this, I am trusting my financial advisor who says the market is way overpriced and the technical indicators don't favor this kind of strength over a long period.  At this stage I'm only about 30% in stocks.




My husband watches the market pretty closely, reads lots of financial experts and he says that they're doing the same thing.  Pulling money out of the market and watching from the sidelines.  There are some guys like Peter Schiff who are not finding much good about the market as it stands now.  And some are looking at the gold market with growing enthusiasm.


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## Don M. (Jul 4, 2016)

The VIX has experienced a huge move downwards in the past few days....as the overreaction to the Brexit vote has quieted down.  However, with many global events still in a state of volatility....the price of oil, the upcoming elections, uncertainty in the Asian/European markets, etc., the rest of this year still looks like its going to be a tossup.  Caution is probably the prudent approach.


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## rkunsaw (Jul 4, 2016)

Several months ago  I put in buy orders for one stock at $13 and another at $9 which my broker and I both considered would be a good buy. The first stock hit a low of $12.95 a couple of months ago so I got it at $13. It stayed above $13.25 ever since until the brexit panic. It dropped to about $12 so I called my broker and bought more. The other stock hit the $9 mark the same day so I bought it too. I consider the brexit panic to have been a rare opportunity to get stock at a good price.


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## oldman (Jul 5, 2016)

I once was a day trader and learned to trade by hands on and also by attending as many financial seminars as possible. Of course, many of the seminars end by the presenters trying to sell you something, mainly one of their products or investment strategies. I no longer follow the markets day to day, but do have several retirement IRA's with banks and trading institutions. My favorites being Fidelity and Vanguard. I stay mainly in no-load funds or low expense funds. My YTD earnings are at 5.8% at the moment, which considering the volatility of the markets isn't too shabby. I would expect the volatility to continue through this election year. 

I also trade individual stocks through Scottrade, but I only look for high dividend returns like the telecom stocks offer such as; AT&T and Verizon. GE is also another favorite of mine. I do buy and sell some precious metals, but in certificate form only, no bullion. Why pay sales tax and be 6% in the hole at the starting gate? I have found out over the years that there are a myriad of ways to make money trading investments, if you want to put the time in. Even trading currencies can net a person a lot of dough. I have a friend that trades options, but for me, I don't have the insight to be as successful as he has been over the years. I have done "short sales" and have had some nice returns, but then again, it helps to have some luck on your side or some inside knowledge to be successful at doing short sales. The markets have been good to those investors that have done short sales this year. I never do any margin trading. 

It seems to me that a lot of financial planners have their own strategy. The best one has always been to "buy low and sell high." And, "never buy a stock when it's on the way down." Timing the market is an impossible quest. I have seen a lot of different strategies over the years. I like Peter Lynch's the best. "Keep your eyes and ears open. There are opportunities out there that are in front of a person and they don't even realize it."


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## Southern Gentleman (Jul 7, 2016)

Lon said:


> It's nice to see my IRA account and other investments moving up nicely & I would sure like to see it continue.
> 
> How about you?



It is nice. With interest rates a non factor there are simply very few options as it pertains to competing asset classes.


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## Don M. (Jul 8, 2016)

The U.S. markets seem to have pretty much recovered from the "Brexit" scare.  However, the Asian and European markets are still rather "iffy".  There really isn't much Positive news our there, so the rest of the year could still be a bumpy ride.


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## Bobw235 (Jul 8, 2016)

If Trump were to somehow be elected, I'd be very concerned about being in the market.


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## Southern Gentleman (Jul 8, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> If Trump were to somehow be elected, I'd be very concerned about being in the market.



Its highly probable he won't continue the dilution of currency currently in circulation at the rate Obama has. If he slows the printing it would likely push interest rates a little bit higher as it heat up competition in the credit markets. However , rates should still be below historical norms . Keep in mind artificially low rates distort valuations therefore aren't always a good thing. If the markets do fall realize we've had a huge huge run .  we could knock 5000 off the Dow today and still show a 100% gain since the major lows less than a decade ago. That being said by the rule of 72 it breaks down to roughly an annualized 8% which is consistent with historical norms. Personally I'd like to see 6-8% spread across the table into  30 year T's,  real estate and equities . it would be at partial expense to the stock market but in time that's the odds on probability regardless . These one asset class rallies be it real estate , markets etc typically end ugly.


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## Southern Gentleman (Jul 8, 2016)

The market isn't at 18k because the economy is great and corporate America is rolling. Its here for two reasons.  #1. With rates this low there are few other attractive asset classes. #2. Shares of stock are based on units. "Units" of currency. A greater number if units inflates the product it pursues. "A like or greater number of units pursuing a like or lesser amount of product inflates the product". The caveat is the > # of units dilutes currently existing units. In time it goes full circle. I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist. I love this game. Its a simple game played with numbers. Nothing more and nothing less.


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## Bobw235 (Jul 8, 2016)

Southern Gentleman said:


> The market isn't at 18k because the economy is great and corporate America is rolling. Its here for two reasons.  #1. With rates this low there are few other attractive asset classes. #2. Shares of stock are based on units. "Units" of currency. A greater number if units inflates the product it pursues. "A like or greater number of units pursuing a like or lesser amount of product inflates the product". The caveat is the > # of units dilutes currently existing units. In time it goes full circle. I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist. I love this game. Its a simple game played with numbers. Nothing more and nothing less.



I don't disagree with all you've said here.  Good post.  My point is more along the lines of Trump being a destabilizing force in our economy and around the world.  I think he is dangerous to the point where he'd cause incidents that could roil markets for some time.  I don't see him being someone who would improve the economy, just the opposite.


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## Southern Gentleman (Jul 8, 2016)

Bobw235 said:


> I don't disagree with all you've said here.  Good post.  My point is more along the lines of Trump being a destabilizing force in our economy and around the world.  I think he is dangerous to the point where he'd cause incidents that could roil markets for some time.  I don't see him being someone who would improve the economy, just the opposite.



$20 Trillion debt with a 106% debt to GDP means we've already been up to the "destabilized " counter . a govt can print thru it for a while . it's almost been a blessing the economy is saggy because if the mountains of currency we've been printing had been thrown at a healthy economy the past decade we would be contending with inflation that's beyond the recognized healthy amount. That being said it's obvious that to run this country like a business instead of a fraternity house poker game  would be a disaster lol.  Hopefully trump sticks to his strength which is making deals and not try to change much economically. I'll say this for him. If he were to turn Iran into a crater he'd make somebody give us a few oil fields for doing it. No free lunch.


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