# Rising Seas Threaten 30 Year Mortgage for Coastal Residents



## OneEyedDiva (Jun 27, 2020)

I love watching the home buying shows at or near the ocean but I always think about the dangers in the article below when buyers buy right on the sand. The first time I read about coastal erosion was almost 10 years ago. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/climate/climate-seas-30-year-mortgage.html?smid=fb-share


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## Don M. (Jun 27, 2020)

Rising oceans are, and will continue to be, a reality.  Every year, as more ice melts in Greenland, and Antarctic, etc., the oceans rise a small amount.  Over time, this "small amount" will translate into Feet.  If all the ice on Greenland melted, the rise would be almost 20 feet....Antarctica melting would send the oceans over 200 ft. higher.  

If present trends continue, by this time, next century, Virtually every low lying property on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts will be inundated.  The climate scientists say that the US could lose as much as 17% of its total land mass, and well over 100 million people could be displaced.  Houston, New Orleans, all of Florida, and most of the cities on the Atlantic seaboard, will begin to resemble Venice near the end of this century.  

Anyone who owns property less than 30 or 40 feet above today's sea levels, and wants to pass that property to their heirs, might want to sell it now while it still has some value.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 27, 2020)

Don M. said:


> Rising oceans are, and will continue to be, a reality.  Every year, as more ice melts in Greenland, and Antarctic, etc., the oceans rise a small amount.  Over time, this "small amount" will translate into Feet.  If all the ice on Greenland melted, the rise would be almost 20 feet....Antarctica melting would send the oceans over 200 ft. higher.
> 
> If present trends continue, by this time, next century, Virtually every low lying property on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts will be inundated.  The climate scientists say that the US could lose as much as 17% of its total land mass, and well over 100 million people could be displaced.  Houston, New Orleans, all of Florida, and most of the cities on the Atlantic seaboard, will begin to resemble Venice near the end of this century.
> 
> Anyone who owns property less than 30 or 40 feet above today's sea levels, and wants to pass that property to their heirs, might want to sell it now while it still has some value.


You are right Don. Here's an article a friend posted last year about the many cities that are expected to be under water. The list below doesn't include as many cities. Those included are expected to be submerged sooner than the original list I saw which had many N.J. shore towns. Two of my favorite N.J. places to visit are on this list of places expected to submerge by 2050...Atlantic City where our waterfront timeshare is located and Hoboken N.J. I love visiting their waterfront park on the Hudson river. It already doesn't take much for Hoboken to flood. The timeshare sustained minor damage and only had a flooded lobby when Hurricane Sandy hit and flooded the rest of the city. 
https://www.thetravel.com/15-usa-ci...rwater-by-2050-10-already-on-the-ocean-floor/


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## Liberty (Jun 27, 2020)

Much of Houston is 50 ft above sea level and the northwest point of Harris county, where Houston is located,  is 200 ft.  above sea level. Galveston is 7 ft., which is why they built the seawall.  Its 51 miles from Houston to Galveston.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 27, 2020)

Liberty said:


> Much of Houston is 50 ft above sea level and the northwest point of Harris county, where Houston is located,  is 200 ft.  above sea level. Galveston is 7 ft., which is why they built the seawall.  Its 51 miles from Houston to Galveston.


A lot of those beach front home buying shows feature properties in Galveston.


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## Liberty (Jun 27, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> A lot of those beach front home buying shows feature properties in Galveston.


Our neighbor on the acreage next door owned a "second line" beach house in Galveston.  After hurricane Ike came through in 2008, his beach house became "first line - right on the beach", but the state declared it unlivable as it would be taken in the next hurricane probably, so they bought it from him and tore it down.  Hurricanes and storms are what is changing the coastline around the Galveston area. Wouldn't buy anything on the beach in Galveston unless it was behind the seawall with sufficient storm sure protection.

Of course, like our business contractor used to say "I can always build a house on the sand...there's always someone  that wants to buy it."  They have no idea.


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## Camper6 (Jun 27, 2020)

Ocean rise is about 3.2 mm per year.

Re melting in polar regions. Only ice melting on land will cause a sea rise. Ice on the sea melting will not cause a rise. An ice cube melting in your drink doesn't rise the level in the glass. Try it.


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## Damaged Goods (Jun 27, 2020)

Barry warned us about the rising seas, and yet he and Mooch built a mansion on Cape Cod.

Go figure, eh.


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## Don M. (Jun 27, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Ocean rise is about 3.2 mm per year.  Re melting in polar regions. Only ice melting on land will cause a sea rise. Ice on the sea melting will not cause a rise. An ice cube melting in your drink doesn't rise the level in the glass. Try it.



Yup, the ice floating in the Arctic sea is of minor concern.  However, have you ever checked on the amount of "land locked" ice on Greenland, or the Antarctic?   There are billions of cubic acres of ice on those land masses, and if even half of that ever melted, most of the major coastal population centers...all over the globe...would be uninhabitable.  The planet is warming, and there is little that can be done to stop or reverse that.  It is just a question of time before human life is going to have to go through some major "adaptations".


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## Camper6 (Jun 27, 2020)

Don M. said:


> Yup, the ice floating in the Arctic sea is of minor concern.  However, have you ever checked on the amount of "land locked" ice on Greenland, or the Antarctic?   There are billions of cubic acres of ice on those land masses, and if even half of that ever melted, most of the major coastal population centers...all over the globe...would be uninhabitable.  The planet is warming, and there is little that can be done to stop or reverse that.  It is just a question of time before human life is going to have to go through some major "adaptations".


Yes I know but glacial ice is still being created on land and mountains as it always has been.


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## Don M. (Jun 27, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Yes I know but glacial ice is still being created on land and mountains as it always has been.



Yup, every Winter snow and ice is replenished on the land masses.....and then, even more is melting during the Summer.  A few decades from now, there may be enough ice free land in Greenland to support a sizeable population.


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## Camper6 (Jun 27, 2020)

Don M. said:


> Yup, every Winter snow and ice is replenished on the land masses.....and then, even more is melting during the Summer.  A few decades from now, there may be enough ice free land in Greenland to support a sizeable population.


There is no guarantee that will happen.  We might get into another ice age for all we know.  You say even more is melting during the summer?  How do you know? How would that be measured? 
You can only go by the measurement of the ocean rise and right now it's about 3.2 mm a year which is pretty tiny.  

Where I live.  There has been no change in the average temperature for the last 25 years.  In fact it has been cooler so I'm not a fan of doomsday predictions.

Last year Lake Superior was low.  This year it's right up there again.


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## Don M. (Jun 28, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Where I live.  There has been no change in the average temperature for the last 25 years.  In fact it has been cooler so I'm not a fan of doomsday predictions.



There are numerous reputable sources that are tracking these climate changes, and they all agree that the planet is slowly changing.  Here is just one, of many.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/scie...-climate-change-glaciers-greenland-antarctica

Actually, I'm kind of glad that there are still a lot of "deniers" with regard to Climate Change.  If the vast majority accepted this "truth" we would probably be in the midst of a huge ban on fossil fuels....at a staggering cost.  As it stands, none of us will live long enough to witness this disruption, but our future generations will pay a heavy price.  

"Where you Live" is of little consequence in the larger scheme of things....the planet is a bit larger than an individual neighborhood, and you might want to check out some of the sources tracking our changing planet....might help you broaden your horizons.


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

Don M. said:


> There are numerous reputable sources that are tracking these climate changes, and they all agree that the planet is slowly changing.  Here is just one, of many.
> 
> https://www.express.co.uk/news/scie...-climate-change-glaciers-greenland-antarctica
> 
> ...


Great post.  You see I am a skeptic and I challenge the idea that the Earth is going through a huge warming phase.  It's the same as it has always been.  Warming gradually.  I go by observations.  Where I live again on the shore of Lake Superior, 10,000 years ago there was a huge glacier about a mile high right where I am sitting.  It melted along with others and formed the Great Lakes.  But it took 10,000 years. Now I'm going to challenge you to check your own city for the average temperature for the last 25 years.  I'm going to bet you that there isn't a one degree change.  Winter here is brutal with below zero temperatures and it's not getting any warmer.  People don't follow up and use their own facts.  They believe what the media is telling them.

Now in order to create a reference, scientists go by a pre industrial baseline.  Of course the measurements in the 1700's were nowhere close to what they are now with satellites, etc.
So the IPCC is claiming a 1.5 deg rise in temperature or a goal to maintain.
So from the 1700's to 2000 that's 300 years.  300 years into 1.5 deg C gives you how much per year?


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## Gaer (Jun 28, 2020)

Don M:  What do predict for the West coast?


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

I get a kick out of Al Gore who predicted seas rising.

And then he buys property on the shore?


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## Don M. (Jun 28, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> . Now I'm going to challenge you to check your own city for the average temperature for the last 25 years.  I'm going to bet you that there isn't a one degree change.
> 
> Since today is really hot and sticky, I'm staying indoors, and have plenty of time to "play" on the Internet.  I didn't find any "local" references to temperature increases, but there are Plenty of National and Global references on the Internet.  Here is one that tracked the U.S. temperature increases over the past 118 years.  As you can see, the average is only about 2.5 degrees F, but that is enough to trigger an increase in the melting of large quantities of landlocked ice.  As time passes, and more greenhouse gasses are trapped in the atmosphere, we can only expect the results to continue to slowly climb.
> 
> https://public.tableau.com/profile/...me/Visualization_15615021804530/Visualization


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## Don M. (Jun 28, 2020)

Gaer said:


> Don M:  What do predict for the West coast?



The West Coast will probably see some of the same issues as the Eastern seaboard in coming decades....especially any oceanfront communities.  Seattle and San Diego may be the most heavily populated areas at risk starting near the end of this century.  One of the largest California concerns I have read about is the San Joaquin Valley in Central California.  That area is where a major share of the U.S. fresh produce is grown, and its low elevation could be flooded in coming decades, resulting in quite an impact on some of our food supplies.


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

You can find anything you want to agree with your own beliefs on the internet. I don't believe in exchanging websites.

"It's only about 2.5 degrees F but enough to trigger an increase in the melting of landlocked ice."

Not really.  Ice won't melt below 32 degrees F.  So if the average temperature is below 32 degrees F?   Ice won't melt until it gets to melting temperature.  If it's warming elsewhere, it doesn't necessarily follow that it will be cold enough elsewhere to melt ice.


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## Gaer (Jun 28, 2020)

Don M. said:


> The West Coast will probably see some of the same issues as the Eastern seaboard in coming decades....especially any oceanfront communities.  Seattle and San Diego may be the most heavily populated areas at risk starting near the end of this century.  One of the largest California concerns I have read about is the San Joaquin Valley in Central California.  That area is where a major share of the U.S. fresh produce is grown, and its low elevation could be flooded in coming decades, resulting in quite an impact on some of our food supplies.


You have a wonderful God given gift of prophesy and I believe you!  Thank you for sharing these with us.


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

The end of this century?  That's a safe bet.  I'll bet you're wrong. California has more trouble with fires than with flooding.  Orchards have been wiped out.


Gaer said:


> You have a wonderful God given gift of prophesy and I believe you!  Thank you for sharing these with us.


Let me tell you Gaer.  No one can predict the future and if you could you would be rich.


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## Gaer (Jun 28, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> The end of this century?  That's a safe bet.  I'll bet you're wrong. California has more trouble with fires than with flooding.  Orchards have been wiped out.
> 
> Let me tell you Gaer.  No one can predict the future and if you could you would be rich.


I disagree respectfully.  and who wants to be rich?


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## Don M. (Jun 28, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> You can find anything you want to agree with your own beliefs on the internet. I don't believe in exchanging websites.



Today in Nuuk, Greenland, it is 52 degrees F.  The yearly average temperature in that region stays above freezing for 5 or 6 months of the year.  That is long enough to melt a LOT of ice.  

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/greenland/nuuk/climate

That is NOT My belief...it is that areas weather report.


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## Don M. (Jun 28, 2020)

Gaer said:


> You have a wonderful God given gift of prophesy and I believe you!  Thank you for sharing these with us.



Thank you...although I don't think I have an prophecy skills...I just read a lot, and try to stay current with what's going on in the world.


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

Don M. said:


> Today in Nuuk, Greenland, it is 52 degrees F.  The yearly average temperature in that region stays above freezing for 5 or 6 months of the year.  That is long enough to melt a LOT of ice.
> 
> https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/greenland/nuuk/climate
> 
> That is NOT My belief...it is that areas weather report.


Yes it can but it averages out between melting and freezing. All you can go by is the average rising sea level. 3.2 mm per year so far.


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## Don M. (Jun 28, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Yes it can but it averages out between melting and freezing. All you can go by is the average rising sea level. 3.2 mm per year so far.



Yes, 3.2 mm isn't much....only about 1/8th of an inch.  However, over an extended period of time, that builds up.  Here's a chart showing the rise over the past century, and if that trend continues, another century will see some marked effects on many coastal regions.  If more Melts than Freezes...which appears to be the case...a lot of coastal cities will face some serious problems.

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level

Here's another chart showing the increase in Coastal Flooding over the past 50 years, vs. the 1950's....

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-coastal-flooding


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

Gaer said:


> I disagree respectfully.  and who wants to be rich?


 I've tried it poor.  I would rather be rich.


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## Camper6 (Jun 28, 2020)

Don M. said:


> Yes, 3.2 mm isn't much....only about 1/8th of an inch.  However, over an extended period of time, that builds up.  Here's a chart showing the rise over the past century, and if that trend continues, another century will see some marked effects on many coastal regions.  If more Melts than Freezes...which appears to be the case...a lot of coastal cities will face some serious problems.
> 
> https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level
> 
> ...


Your predictions and assertions are safe and so are mine.

At least for me.  I'm close to 90.  So I won't be around to see it.

I can show you all kinds of websites countering the ones you are posting but as I said.  I don't believe in trading websites.


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## Knight (Jun 29, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Your predictions and assertions are safe and so are mine.
> 
> At least for me.  I'm close to 90.  So I won't be around to see it.
> 
> I can show you all kinds of websites countering the ones you are posting but as I said.  I don't believe in trading websites.


I'm guessing millions maybe billions won't be around if the time frame is close to reality. 200 or more years from now. For me it's a toss up. Will the earth run out of resources to sustain life for the estimated rise in population to over 8 billion or water rising to drive millions inland to live where?


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## Camper6 (Jun 29, 2020)

Knight said:


> I'm guessing millions maybe billions won't be around if the time frame is close to reality. 200 or more years from now. For me it's a toss up. Will the earth run out of resources to sustain life for the estimated rise in population to over 8 billion or water rising to drive millions inland to live where?


Mother Nature takes care of overpopulation in all species. There are all kinds of people who live right on the water.


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## Knight (Jun 29, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Mother Nature takes care of overpopulation in all species. There are all kinds of people who live right on the water.


I guess your right. Ever since God stopped killing people somehow the population has to be reduced. Or maybe flooding the earth is going to happen again. Sure hope there is a good man named Noah with a family not opposed to incest in the future.


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## Camper6 (Jun 29, 2020)

Yep. Just look at the present pandemic.  

The Earth doesn't need humans to survive.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jun 29, 2020)

Liberty said:


> Our neighbor on the acreage next door owned a "second line" beach house in Galveston.  After hurricane Ike came through in 2008, his beach house became "first line - right on the beach", but the state declared it unlivable as it would be taken in the next hurricane probably, so they bought it from him and tore it down.  Hurricanes and storms are what is changing the coastline around the Galveston area. Wouldn't buy anything on the beach in Galveston unless it was behind the seawall with sufficient storm sure protection.
> 
> Of course, like our business contractor used to say "I can always build a house on the sand...there's always someone  that wants to buy it."  They have no idea.


I'm sure people will still buy.  I stream these oceanfront home buying shows and some are years old. I often wonder if any of those featured who were so excited and happy about their purchases wound up with damaged homes or lost them to major storms. Too bad about your friend's house. My former supervisor lived in Ortley Beach part of Toms River, N.J.  He was on vacation in Mexico when Sandy hit. He got a call from neighbors but was not concerned. When he and his wife finally got home after a layover in Texas due to the storm, his house was completely obliterated. Don't know if he got anything from insurance (I doubt it), but they were well off enough that they just went and bought another house. I believe that one is several miles from the beach.


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## oldmontana (Jun 29, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> I get a kick out of Al Gore who predicted seas rising.
> 
> And then he buys property on the shore?


Al Gore ... yes. I remember some of his predictions, mostly wrong.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jul 6, 2020)

Don M. said:


> The West Coast will probably see some of the same issues as the Eastern seaboard in coming decades....especially any oceanfront communities.  Seattle and San Diego may be the most heavily populated areas at risk starting near the end of this century.  One of the largest California concerns I have read about is the San Joaquin Valley in Central California.  That area is where a major share of the U.S. fresh produce is grown, and its low elevation could be flooded in coming decades, resulting in quite an impact on some of our food supplies.


I remember my college geography professor predicting that California would become an island someday. I went to college late, so that was about 35 years ago.


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## Don M. (Jul 6, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> I remember my college geography professor predicting that California would become an island someday. I went to college late, so that was about 35 years ago.



California sits right on one of the "plates", and some day the San Andreas Fault is going to shift, big time, and much of California may well become an island.  The Earth is full of potential "risks"...if/when Yellowstone erupts again, it will wipe out a good portion of the Western US.  No matter how "advanced" humanity becomes, we are still at the mercy of Mother Nature.


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