# Covid Predictions - How good are the experts?



## Brookswood (Mar 25, 2021)

Since this this corona virus problem started, there have been many experts making predictions about what will happen next.    The ones I have listed to are those with usually more than one solid credential - advanced degrees, working in the medical field, researchers, well regarded by peers, etc.

As of today, I am tracking four predictions:

#1 -  We will hit herd immunity by April of this year.  Yea!

#2 - We will have a good Spring and Summer. One or more of the variances *may* cause outbreaks here and there in the USA.   The Covid variances *might* cause new problems in late Fall and Winter as people crowd together indoors more, if one or more of these variances is very vigorous and can outwit the vaccine.

#3 - Things are already starting to turn down now (end of March 2021) and if we don't tighten up restrictions for a few more months until we have many more people vaccinated, Summer and beyond could see another big surge of the virus.

#4 - We are going to be hit by a Covid Hurricane in April. We are only 4-6 weeks behind Europe.  It's coming. It will be worse than the other peaks,  and we can't stop it.

The above are all predictions I have heard in this month of March.    It will be interesting to see who is the most accurate.


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## SetWave (Mar 25, 2021)

Even for the experienced, well educated, well intentioned, credentialed experts predicting the unpredictable is difficult. As for myself, I'm just hoping for the best.


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## Brookswood (Mar 25, 2021)

SetWave said:


> Even for the experienced, well educated, well intentioned, credentialed experts predicting the unpredictable is difficult. As for myself, I'm just hoping for the best.


Very true.     Still, I think it's worthwhile to see who hits the mark more often and who misses it more often.


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## MarciKS (Mar 25, 2021)

It's my understanding that African variant is worse. It spreads way faster & is more deadly? I don't recall the link. I believe I read it in Huffington post a few weeks back. I've just been waiting for us to get hit. I feel like this is the calm before the storm. Soon as they open back up & the masks & distancing disappear we're in trouble. JMO


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## Lethe200 (Mar 25, 2021)

Any prediction of "herd immunity" is completely dependent upon ALL people being vaccinated. 

Unless made mandatory, I believe estimates of anti-vaxxers range from 20-36% of adults - which sadly renders herd immunity impossible to achieve.


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## Don M. (Mar 25, 2021)

Predicting the "future" of this virus is almost like predicting the stock market.  There are so many unknows about this illness that any accurate forecasts about weeks/months from now are anyone's guess.  However, it's a pretty safe bet that getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and avoiding crowds are the best ways to avoid infection.  So far, it looks like the current vaccinations substantially lessen the chances of having issues with these "variants", but I kind of expect to see "booster" shots needed in the future.  

If this virus continues to spike, largely due to a large number of people failing to take it seriously, I would Not object to those people having to isolate themselves, or being subjected to heavy fines if they fail to do so.


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## MarciKS (Mar 25, 2021)

Don M. said:


> Predicting the "future" of this virus is almost like predicting the stock market.  There are so many unknows about this illness that any accurate forecasts about weeks/months from now are anyone's guess.  However, it's a pretty safe bet that getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and avoiding crowds are the best ways to avoid infection.  So far, it looks like the current vaccinations substantially lessen the chances of having issues with these "variants", but I kind of expect to see "booster" shots needed in the future.
> 
> If this virus continues to spike, largely due to a large number of people failing to take it seriously, I would Not object to those people having to isolate themselves, or being subjected to heavy fines if they fail to do so.


I won't be surprised if there's a booster.


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## IrisSenior (Mar 25, 2021)

Experts can predict all they want as only time will tell what will happen. I wait expectantly.


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## digifoss (Mar 25, 2021)

Most of the expert wuhan flu prognosticators are about as accurate as Jeane Dixon used to be.  If you make a prediction on every possible outcome, then your chances of one of them being close is high.  Right now, Dr Fauci's ego is flying high on the wings of his current temporary  celebrity status.  While he's very well educated, usually good at what he does, and probably a smart person, I personally don't trust his forecasts regarding the current pandemic.  IMO the worldometer has pretty accurate data that lets you see which way the "curve" is going at any given time, and with that, you can make your own predictions and be as close as the Jeane Dixon imitators.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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## win231 (Mar 25, 2021)

The Covid "Experts" are as good as the earthquake "Experts" who rant on & on after each earthquake to dazzle us with their incredible knowledge & gloom & doom about the big one.
In fact, I'm just as good & I don't have a whole bunch of capital letters after my name:
_"I know that we are going to have an earthquake in the next 25 years."_


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## JonDouglas (Mar 26, 2021)

Prediction:  In all probability, the truth will be somewhere between the extremes (e.g. it will go away vs we're all gonna die).  The reality is that perception of this will have a lot to do with politics and economics.  You will recall the words of one "expert" who initally said it's just like a cold or flu (which for most people is true) to saying something like double-masking lockdowns were needed in the face of the most virulent and deadly problem ever.  It's always good to remember that politicians never like to waste a good crisis, which is what often gets them elected.


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## fuzzybuddy (Mar 26, 2021)

I trust the people in various governmental health positions. While blogger, itsybits1672@yahoo.com, does give hourly reports from his  basement, I tend to go with the people, who have a bunch of degrees after their names.
I don't believe any of the so called "world powers" performed well in dealing with the pandemic.


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## DaveA (Mar 26, 2021)

Lacking any other choices, I'll stick with the medical folks rather than the political hacks, who surprisingly have developed a solid base??  Same with any other disease that comes along.   

I've had a few health bumps along the way and the medical folks have eased me past them.  If you think that your senator or rep can do a better job, so-be-it .  Our politicians started out telling us that this was nothing to be concerned about and now, 500,000 dead folks later, some people continue to try and belittle the problem.


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## Aunt Bea (Mar 26, 2021)

When you filter out all of the noise it seems that the most simple basic information has been the most valuable.

No matter what the guidance and predictions are they have little value if the majority of people don't follow them.


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## Serenity4321 (Mar 26, 2021)

I just don't know who to listen to or trust anymore.. I am happy I will have my second vaccine in a week and 2 weeks after I am supposed to be fairly safe?? But I will still wear a mask and avoid crowds


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## ProTruckDriver (Mar 26, 2021)

digifoss said:


> Right now, Dr Fauci's ego is flying high on the wings of his current temporary celebrity status. While he's very well educated, usually good at what he does, and probably a smart person, I personally don't trust his forecasts regarding the current pandemic.


I agree with you there.


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## SetWave (Mar 26, 2021)

The so-called experts seem to be going back and forth over whether it originated in a lab or in nature. All I know is it's a goddamned virus that should have been contained immediately upon discovery. We're well into the 21st century aren't we? Hmmmmm, yeah, it's the future when diseases will run rampant and I'm just waiting for the zombie apocalypse.


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## Tommy (Mar 27, 2021)

Epidemiologists, virologists, communicable disease specialists:  Weed out the ones with political or financial interests and seriously consider the opinions of the rest.

Medical doctors:  Not so much.  Their training in this area is usually extremely limited but there may be a few with worthwhile input.

Head of the Department of <something that sounds relevant> at Such and Such University:  Check out their credentials, but probably not particularly knowledgable.

Politicians and bureaucrats:  "I have this piece of swamp land that is REALLY valuable.  You should buy it.  Trust me!!" 

The "news" (TV, print, internet):  Really?  You have to be kidding! 

Entertainers (actors, singers, athletes, media personalities):


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## doat (Mar 27, 2021)

Que Sera Sera


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## Kathleen’s Place (Mar 27, 2021)

. The world is full of experts, all with their own opinions. So I take it all with a grain of salt.


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## JonDouglas (Mar 27, 2021)

The problem with expertise today is that there's too much of it that isn't.  Instead we have an avalanche of virtue signaling, agenda pushing, narrative engineering, political pandering and worse.  This makes it more difficult separate the wheat from the chaff regarding dovid information. Bottom line:  Don't automatically believe what you read or hear.  Use judgement and common sense in the process (e.g., has any previous flu vaccine managed to eradicate seasonal influenza?)


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## Brookswood (Apr 2, 2021)

I have found Dr. Fauci to be reasonably accurate.   However, the reporting of what he says has been very poor.   

The standards of modern journalism are very low, perhaps to the point of being negative.   I have heard people on both sides of the political divide mention how they were misquoted or misrepresented, and despite their efforts to correct the problem, the major news organizations just move on and never mention their own errors. They really don't seem to care as long as they are provoking outrage and division that keeps their ratings up.


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## Irwin (Apr 2, 2021)

For me, it's mostly local news media that gets things wrong. They have small budgets and probably don't pay their reporters very much, and their quality suffers. There are some big city news text media outlets that still do a pretty good job.

What's another word for news text media? I'm talking about media outlets that are primarily text based as apposed to video. We used to call them "print media," but many of them are primarily web-based now, so they're not _printed_, unless being written to the screen is still called "print."


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## tbeltrans (Apr 2, 2021)

Here in Minnesota, if the weather people predict snow every day during the winter, sometimes they will be right.  If there are enough "expert" predictions to cover most of the possible outcomes of COVID, somebody will probably be either right or "close enough for government work".

Everybody seems to want to predict something for some reason, but only hindsight is always 20/20.

Edit: In other words...patience, grasshopper, just wait and see.

Tony


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## digifoss (Apr 2, 2021)

In mid-January 2020 Dr Fauci said Americans had nothing to fear from the Corona virus.  Shortly after he advised against wearing a face mask saying that would only give people a false sense of security.  He now says that he only advised against wearing a mask because PPE was in short supply at that time BUT that's not what he said at the time.  Hindsight is always nice.  He's a smart doctor, but he has been too eager to be on TV since the beginning of this pandemic.  He would be a better fit on the Chicago Med TV series IMO.


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## win231 (Apr 2, 2021)

digifoss said:


> In mid-January 2020 Dr Fauci said Americans had nothing to fear from the Corona virus.  Shortly after he advised against wearing a face mask saying that would only give people a false sense of security.  He now says that he only advised against wearing a mask because PPE was in short supply at that time BUT that's not what he said at the time.  Hindsight is always nice.  He's a smart doctor, but he has been too eager to be on TV since the beginning of this pandemic.  He would be a better fit on the Chicago Med TV series IMO.


Re:  Masks.  Yes, Fauci proved that he's willing to lie & deceive, then try to justify it.  He knows how fear interferes with people's logic.


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## Brookswood (Apr 2, 2021)

I don't want to wander to far off topic which is the difference in all of the predictions made by experts. What else is new? 

FWIW, I have caught one of them waffling again on his prediction.


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## chic (Apr 2, 2021)

Tommy said:


> Epidemiologists, virologists, communicable disease specialists:  Weed out the ones with political or financial interests and seriously consider the opinions of the rest.
> 
> Medical doctors:  Not so much.  Their training in this area is usually extremely limited but there may be a few with worthwhile input.
> 
> ...


Problem is these experts all have financial interests in this.


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## chic (Apr 2, 2021)

digifoss said:


> In mid-January 2020 Dr Fauci said Americans had nothing to fear from the Corona virus.  Shortly after he advised against wearing a face mask saying that would only give people a false sense of security.  He now says that he only advised against wearing a mask because PPE was in short supply at that time BUT that's not what he said at the time.  Hindsight is always nice.  He's a smart doctor, but he has been too eager to be on TV since the beginning of this pandemic.  He would be a better fit on the Chicago Med TV series IMO.


He lied from the start saying we had nothing to fear in the U.S. then saying we'd stay in for 4 weeks. Yeah, right. Over a year later... there are still people listening to him and hanging on his every word.


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## digifoss (Apr 2, 2021)

chic said:


> He lied from the start saying we had nothing to fear in the U.S. then saying we'd stay in for 4 weeks. Yeah, right. Over a year later... there are still people listening to him and hanging on his every word.


Yea he said we just needed to wear the mask and stay inside for a few weeks to flatten the curve and here we are a year later.  Their scapegoat is long-gone and nothing is getting any better even yet.  I have serious allergy reactions and am not even going to consider taking any of the current vaccines for my own health concerns, yet their plan seems to be to force everyone to get the vaccine, not by making it mandatory, but with different coercion methods.  In my age and health group my chances of surviving covid are 98% so I am not going to over-worry myself.  If it gets to where we can't buy groceries without showing our covid id card I guess Ill be forced, or coerced into re-considering.


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## ProTruckDriver (Apr 2, 2021)

digifoss said:


> If it gets to where we can't buy groceries without showing our covid id card I guess Ill be forced, or coerced into re-considering.


If they try that I believe riots will break out all over the USA. These riots we have now will look like a Sunday School Picnic if they ban unvaccinated to shop at grocery stores.


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## Brookswood (Apr 10, 2021)

One expert is back tracking a bit every week.   Sad for him, I have used my computer to make a mental note of his prediction and the day he made it.


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## chic (Apr 10, 2021)

digifoss said:


> Yea he said we just needed to wear the mask and stay inside for a few weeks to flatten the curve and here we are a year later.  Their scapegoat is long-gone and nothing is getting any better even yet.  I have serious allergy reactions and am not even going to consider taking any of the current vaccines for my own health concerns, yet their plan seems to be to force everyone to get the vaccine, not by making it mandatory, but with different coercion methods.  In my age and health group my chances of surviving covid are 98% so I am not going to over-worry myself.  If it gets to where we can't buy groceries without showing our covid id card I guess Ill be forced, or coerced into re-considering.



You can always order groceries online and go pick them up. A shopper in the store will pick them out and deliver them to your car so there is no need to take the vaccine if you don't want to just for groceries. 

South Carolina and Rhode Island are currently working to pass legislation to prevent this kind of discrimination against the unvaccinated. I wish all 50 states would do the same.


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## Keesha (Apr 10, 2021)

Not a clue how good the Covid predictions are. I do however know that Ontario has 3,813 new cases today. The number is increasing rapidly.
Ford has issued vaccines for the 50 plus group first and others later. Peel Region is one of the most hit as well as the GTA in our province.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5979774


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## Dana (Apr 10, 2021)

Brookswood said:


> Since this this corona virus problem started, there have been many experts making predictions about what will happen next.    The ones I have listed to are those with usually more than one solid credential - advanced degrees, working in the medical field, researchers, well regarded by peers, etc.
> 
> As of today, I am tracking four predictions:
> 
> ...



_You are making very little sense... predictions are very rarely accurate. The scientists are not God Almighty... they are doing their best. It is extremely naive to hold any one to a prediction when the virus...like all viruses... have a will and life of its own.

Question from me to you:  Have you ever studied the life cycle of a virus? Might be an interesting occupation for you.
._


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## Keesha (Apr 10, 2021)

chic said:


> You can always order groceries online and go pick them up. A shopper in the store will pick them out and deliver them to your car so there is no need to take the vaccine if you don't want to just for groceries.
> 
> South Carolina and Rhode Island are currently working to pass legislation to prevent this kind of discrimination against the unvaccinated. I wish all 50 states would do the same.


We have curb side pick up for those who don’t wish to go into stores for whatever reason.
We have just had another major lock down so we can only purchase food and essentials. Many people are vaccinated in our area but the vaccination doesn’t stop you from getting the virus or  from spreading the virus. It only reduces the symptoms.


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## Jeweltea (Apr 10, 2021)

But you didn't set a date to end your experiment. The way you have it written, one could be right on June 1st, a different one on July 1st, etc.


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