# How far can the stock market fall?



## Robert59 (Mar 17, 2020)

Does your stock when it get's to zero still have value?


----------



## Liberty (Mar 17, 2020)

Robert59 said:


> Does your stock when it get's to zero still have value?


Don't think so...they get quickly de listed.  Like if the company went bankrupt.


----------



## Judycat (Mar 17, 2020)

You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em 
Know when to walk away
Know when to run

You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done


----------



## Aunt Bea (Mar 17, 2020)




----------



## Liberty (Mar 17, 2020)

Judycat said:


> You got to know when to hold 'em
> Know when to fold 'em
> Know when to walk away
> Know when to run
> ...


Not original but perhaps appropriate...lol!


----------



## Don M. (Mar 17, 2020)

The volatility in the markets is just getting started.  It will probably be months....maybe well over a year....before anything resembling stability returns to the markets.  It all depends upon what kind of long term effects this virus has on global economies....and, of course, this oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia isn't helping the oil industries.  Estimates from the "experts" are all over the place, with most saying the markets my drop several percentage points more, from today's levels, and any recovery will probably not occur before well into the latter half of this year.


----------



## Robert59 (Mar 17, 2020)

Friend of mine said his broker told him we could have a major melt down by the end of year if the government doesn't find a cure for this virus.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 17, 2020)

Robert59 said:


> Does your stock when it get's to zero still have value?


Well it depends.  How much can you sell it for? That's the value of anything you own.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 17, 2020)

Don M. said:


> The volatility in the markets is just getting started.  It will probably be months....maybe well over a year....before anything resembling stability returns to the markets.  It all depends upon what kind of long term effects this virus has on global economies....and, of course, this oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia isn't helping the oil industries.  Estimates from the "experts" are all over the place, with most saying the markets my drop several percentage points more, from today's levels, and any recovery will probably not occur before well into the latter half of this year.


When it comes to oil, the U.S. is lucky to have Canada as their major supplier.
Many Americans don't realize that Canada is the major supplier to the United States.
And because of the free trade agreement with Canada and the exchange rate, Americans are getting a real bargain including stability.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 17, 2020)

Liberty said:


> Don't think so...they get quickly de listed.  Like if the company went bankrupt.


I don't think so.  It depends on the balance sheet and assets versus liabilities.\
The balance sheet is often ignored in favor of the income statement.
Frequently there is someone always ready to pick up the pieces and become productive again.


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 17, 2020)

The market does not like bad news. So is there more bad news in the near future or good news?  It has always made a come back but that is good or bad depending on one's time frame. If you are 30 years old this is a grand time to start some buying. If you are a senior things don't look so good. The Dow has lost around 8,000 points since the start of 2020. Your guess is as good as mine. Another piece of bad new yet to come will be the jobs report. The number of jobs lost could be 1-2 million.  Fast food giants cannot open their door and who then will wait in very long lines in the drive-thru to buy a burger? What about shopping malls? Oil is at an all time low. This virus will change many nations forever.


----------



## JimBob1952 (Mar 17, 2020)

Robert59 said:


> Friend of mine said his broker told him we could have a major melt down by the end of year if the government doesn't find a cure for this virus.



This is a major meltdown.  Stocks down by 30 percent, and the real economic impact hasn't even hit yet.  When 1q earnings come out...when layoffs begin at United, Boeing, ExxonMobil, many other companies, not to mention every retailer, restaurant, cruise ship operator, etc., you will see some real consternation.  

One nice thing about having been in the markets for the last 30 years, however, is that I've learned never to pay attention to what anyone's broker says.  

By the way, governments don't find cures for viruses, private companies do.


----------



## Don M. (Mar 17, 2020)

JimBob1952 said:


> One nice thing about having been in the markets for the last 30 years, however, is that I've learned never to pay attention to what anyone's broker says.



That's For Sure!  3 weeks ago, all the "experts" were telling people to "Stay Put".  Anyone with a 401K, etc., has quickly lost a bunch by following this advice.  I'm of the opinion that a brokers highest priority is their fees and commissions.


----------



## JimBob1952 (Mar 17, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> When it comes to oil, the U.S. is lucky to have Canada as their major supplier.
> Many Americans don't realize that Canada is the major supplier to the United States.
> And because of the free trade agreement with Canada and the exchange rate, Americans are getting a real bargain including stability.





Robert59 said:


> Does your stock when it get's to zero still have value?


Its value at zero is...zero.  

However stocks usually don't go to zero.  My stocks went down by more than 50 percent in 2008-2009.  They came back over time.  They took off under Trump, dropped sharply in late 2018, went up by 35 percent over the last 14 months, then down by 30 percent in the last three weeks.  

My bet on COVID-19 is another 10 percentage point decrease, then a fairly rapid recovery in late summer.


----------



## CatGuy (Mar 17, 2020)

Just remember, y'all: gains or losses are just on paper *until you sell*. Then they become real. If you don't have to sell securities to survive right now, *don't*.


----------



## C'est Moi (Mar 17, 2020)

Don M. said:


> That's For Sure!  3 weeks ago, all the "experts" were telling people to "Stay Put".  Anyone with a 401K, etc., has quickly lost a bunch by following this advice.  I'm of the opinion that a brokers highest priority is their fees and commissions.


I believe staying put was good advice.  Anyone in the market knows that you have to be willing to ride things out, and it will come back sooner or (usually) later.   I certainly would not be selling at today's prices but we are positioned for the long haul.


----------



## C'est Moi (Mar 17, 2020)

JimBob1952 said:


> This is a major meltdown.  Stocks down by 30 percent, and the real economic impact hasn't even hit yet.  When 1q earnings come out...when layoffs begin at United, Boeing, ExxonMobil, many other companies, not to mention every retailer, restaurant, cruise ship operator, etc., you will see some real consternation.
> 
> One nice thing about having been in the markets for the last 30 years, however, is that I've learned never to pay attention to what anyone's broker says.
> 
> By the way, governments don't find cures for viruses, private companies do.


ExxonMobil is cutting contractors this week.  I have never known them to lay off direct employees but we are seeing a lot of "this has never happened before" situations.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 17, 2020)

My understanding is that there is no 'cure' for viruses only vaccines. And it depends what country you are talking about when you say only private companies find cures.


----------



## JimBob1952 (Mar 17, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> My understanding is that there is no 'cure' for viruses only vaccines. And it depends what country you are talking about when you say only private companies find cures.





Camper6 said:


> My understanding is that there is no 'cure' for viruses only vaccines. And it depends what country you are talking about when you say only private companies find cures.


----------



## JimBob1952 (Mar 17, 2020)

Right about the vaccine.  And I was talking about the US in regard to cures.  Although I'm not aware of a lot of innovative pharmaceuticals created by governments anywhere.


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 18, 2020)

CatGuy said:


> Just remember, y'all: gains or losses are just on paper *until you sell*. Then they become real. If you don't have to sell securities to survive right now, *don't*.


True however insert your calendar life expectancy in and you come up bruised and battered. No matter how you view it we have lost money. "I will make it back in time" is sticking one's head in the sand. The fact is _if_ we did not take this very big hit we would be enjoying a long run of profit. This dive ate those profits up sending us back to square one. If one had 250,000 before the dive and 210,000 when it ended you have lost money because what you can buy is less than what you could have been able to buy. If a person is a few years from death they are worse off than a 30 year old but both have suffered a reduction in their portfolios.


----------



## Don M. (Mar 18, 2020)

I will not be surprised if the major stock indexes show a decline of nearly 50% from their recent highs, before the markets begin to stabilize....and I suspect that this instability will be the norm well into the Summer months.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

i think 40-50% are a do for these conditions ....but huge rally's are likely at only the hint of a peak in cases .....so if i wanted to do some bottom fishing and add i would pace myself and not try to catch a low ... say some now , some another 5% drop , some another 5% drop , etc
timing a bottom is in possible but if you have enough to add the ride back should be quite nice eventually.

markets spend 80% of all their time somewhere between the last low and last high so bench marking to a peak is very foolish . it is like trying to sell a stock at the exact high .

 in the end we always have a reversion to the mean and  9% or so  is the norm long term


----------



## oldman (Mar 18, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> When it comes to oil, the U.S. is lucky to have Canada as their major supplier.
> Many Americans don't realize that Canada is the major supplier to the United States.
> And because of the free trade agreement with Canada and the exchange rate, Americans are getting a real bargain including stability.


Actually, the U.S. produces more oil than Canada and is very close to being self sufficient. But, for now, Canada is our main importer for the oil that is needed in addition to our own. That’s well known. Geo-politics has a lot to do with the reasoning. The U.S. is the largest oil producing country in the world and Canada, I believe, is either 4th or 5th.


----------



## oldman (Mar 18, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> Well it depends.  How much can you sell it for? That's the value of anything you own.


I think perhaps you don’t understand how the market works. Take a large cap stock and as it declines, it will be removed from the large cap sector to the mid-cap sector. If it continues to decline, it was again be removed from the mid-cap sector to the small-cap sector. If it still declines, it could be de-listed and end up being traded on the OTC or as some call it, the pink sheet. 

What the company’s value is when their assets, including cash and outstanding debts are tallied and then their liabilities, including their accounts payable is deducted to get a net value is different from what the stock is worth. 

A company can have a billion dollars in assets, but if it isn’t bringing in any money with what they produce or products or services they supply, the stock isn’t worth much, if anything at all to investors.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 18, 2020)

All is well but the stock certificates are still valid.  And I repeat.  The value is what you can sell them for even if the stock is delisted. In fact I have some mining stock that I'm hanging on to. And I have some stock in a golf club that I can't sell but then I can still vote at the shareholders meeting.

So what's the value.  Well in order to join the club you have to be a shareholder.  I bought some stock in another golf club in town.  I was going to join that club.  Someone just bought it.  So I'll just hang on.
I don't golf anymore.  It's just too expensive now that I am retired.

Then there was a supper club in town and the owners were heavy investors.   They wallpapered the bathroom with stock certificates.  Look what they saved on wallpaper.  

I was surprised.  Most of the certificates were for a brassiere company.


----------



## oldman (Mar 18, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> All is well but the stock certificates are still valid.  And I repeat.  The value is what you can sell them for even if the stock is delisted. In fact I have some mining stock that I'm hanging on to. And I have some stock in a golf club that I can't sell but then I can still vote at the shareholders meeting.
> 
> So what's the value.  Well in order to join the club you have to be a shareholder.  I bought some stock in another golf club in town.  I was going to join that club.  Someone just bought it.  So I'll just hang on.
> I don't golf anymore.  It's just too expensive now that I am retired.
> ...



Sure, the shares are still valid, but worthless if the company goes belly-up. Sort of like confederate money. 
If a company goes bankrupt and you are holding common shares, it is highly unlikely that you will see dime one. OTOH, if you are holding any preferred stock and there is a few measly bucks left after paying everyone else, you may see a few pennies. No one is going to buy stock in a bankrupt company. I know, I held GM stock back in 2009 until the end. But, I did buy some $1.00 Ford stock and sold at $5.00.


----------



## Don M. (Mar 18, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> i think 40-50% are a do for these conditions .



If today's market performance is any indicator, I would say that a drop of 50% is Very Likely.  Anyone who tries to "time" this market is really a gambler.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 18, 2020)

oldman said:


> Sure, the shares are still valid, but worthless if the company goes belly-up. Sort of like confederate money.
> If a company goes bankrupt and you are holding common shares, it is highly unlikely that you will see dime one. OTOH, if you are holding any preferred stock and there is a few measly bucks left after paying everyone else, you may see a few pennies. No one is going to buy stock in a bankrupt company. I know, I held GM stock back in 2009 until the end. But, I did buy some $1.00 Ford stock and sold at $5.00.


When it comes to the stock market I believe in miracles. A company I had shares in were offering to buy them back at $12 I paid $7 so I sent them in. I was late so they came back. The stock went to $25 and are now paying dividends. It's better to be lucky than good.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 18, 2020)

oldman said:


> Sure, the shares are still valid, but worthless if the company goes belly-up. Sort of like confederate money.
> If a company goes bankrupt and you are holding common shares, it is highly unlikely that you will see dime one. OTOH, if you are holding any preferred stock and there is a few measly bucks left after paying everyone else, you may see a few pennies. No one is going to buy stock in a bankrupt company. I know, I held GM stock back in 2009 until the end. But, I did buy some $1.00 Ford stock and sold at $5.00.


You can sell confederate bills to collectors. Silver and gold coins even better.


----------



## oldman (Mar 18, 2020)

I live just about a half hour from Gettysburg. The last time I was there and visited a gift shop, I could have bought about a $100 in confederate money for about $4.00. The money is worthless. It's not even a collector's item. Usually kids buy it to take to school and use it for "Show & Tell." In the gift shops, the money is all reprints. 

Th "real" Confederate money would probably bring a good price.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 18, 2020)

Today we don’t even see a stock certificate.....it usually is held in street name at the brokerage


----------



## oldman (Mar 18, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Today we don’t even see a stock certificate.....it usually is held in street name at the brokerage


The last time that I received any shares was in the early ‘80’s when I bought a local utility. I received one, 500 share certificate of the local water company.

Even if I buy gold or silver, I see it on online. Buying certificates instead of bullion saves me 6% in sales tax.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 18, 2020)

Watch and learn. Panic mode. Went grocery shopping. Empty shelves extra help stocking them. Investors are ignoring stimulus.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 18, 2020)

oldman said:


> I live just about a half hour from Gettysburg. The last time I was there and visited a gift shop, I could have bought about a $100 in confederate money for about $4.00. The money is worthless. It's not even a collector's item. Usually kids buy it to take to school and use it for "Show & Tell." In the gift shops, the money is all reprints.
> 
> Th "real" Confederate money would probably bring a good price.


What is 'real' Confedate money? I'm amazed it's still around.


----------



## oldman (Mar 19, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> What is 'real' Confedate money? I'm amazed it's still around.


Authentic confederate money can only be found in museums and also some collectors do hold it. 

It’s made on rough paper, like rice paper or papyrus paper. I gave even seen some of it having color printed on it. The majority of it was destroyed years ago.


----------



## Liberty (Mar 19, 2020)

Think Trump's press release will really help today.  Solid drug intervention with proven safety credentials.


----------



## oldmontana (Mar 19, 2020)

oldman said:


> The last time that I received any shares was in the early ‘80’s when I bought a local utility. I received one, 500 share certificate of the local water company.
> 
> Even if I buy gold or silver, I see it on online. Buying certificates instead of bullion saves me 6% in sales tax.


When I started buying stocks I received stock certificates.  They had beautiful art work on them.


----------



## Catlady (Mar 19, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> When I started buying stocks I received stock certificates.  They had beautiful art work on them.



I did, too, but then I worried they would get lost or burn in a fire, and if you wanted to sell you first had to mail them in (and worry about lost mail).  I like it better this way, I just print out the list of trades occasionally to have a paper trail and the transaction number for backup.


----------



## oldman (Mar 19, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> When I started buying stocks I received stock certificates.  They had beautiful art work on them.


I always thought the seal was very impressive looking.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 19, 2020)

Makes you feel like you really own something even when it's not worth anything.

I told you about the guys that wallpapered the bathroom with them.


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 19, 2020)

Boeing closed today at $97.70 On February 14th it was $348.91 a drop of $251.21 per share in one month!! The govt. may have to bail them out because they are too critical to collapse. Looking at my stocks it is very tempting to buy but I am not ready to leap just yet. I think this corona thing will shed new light on internet buying so Walmart and Amazon which I own may see good times ahead. I am not big on mutual funds but buying an all markets index fund might be a safe bet being they are all beat down.


----------



## Catlady (Mar 19, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Boeing closed today at $97.70 On February 14th it was $348.91 a drop of $251.21 per share in one month!! The govt. may have to bail them out because they are too critical to collapse. Looking at my stocks it is very tempting to buy but I am not ready to leap just yet. I think this corona thing will shed new light on internet buying so Walmart and Amazon which I own may see good times ahead. I am not big on mutual funds but buying an all markets index fund might be a safe bet being they are all beat down.



I bought a few shares of BA at 100.00 and have a limit buy for a few more at 80.00.  I doubt very much they will go bankrupt, I've been waiting to buy since they were 400.00.  If you want an all market fund, get the S&P500 etf SPY, I'm waiting for their 50% discount at 170.00.  I have patience.     It's not'''all markets'' but it has the biggest 500 companies.

BTW, I read BA may cut down or eliminate their dividends, but I don't care, that's not why I like them.


----------



## Gardenlover (Mar 19, 2020)

Hopefully it comes back, but people will probably be more cautious.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 19, 2020)

Catlady said:


> I bought a few shares of BA at 100.00 and have a limit buy for a few more at 80.00.  I doubt very much they will go bankrupt, I've been waiting to buy since they were 400.00.  If you want an all market fund, get the S&P500 etf SPY, I'm waiting for their 50% discount at 170.00.  I have patience.     It's not'''all markets'' but it has the biggest 500 companies.
> 
> BTW, I read BA may cut down or eliminate their dividends, but I don't care, that's not why I like them.


I think ba will go like GM , and a host of others who declare bankruptcy, wipe out debt , wipe out shareholders and come back clean as a whistle


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 19, 2020)

Catlady said:


> I bought a few shares of BA at 100.00 and have a limit buy for a few more at 80.00.  I doubt very much they will go bankrupt, I've been waiting to buy since they were 400.00.  If you want an all market fund, get the S&P500 etf SPY, I'm waiting for their 50% discount at 170.00.  I have patience.     It's not'''all markets'' but it has the biggest 500 companies.
> 
> BTW, I read BA may cut down or eliminate their dividends, but I don't care, that's not why I like them.


By "all markets"I mean a fund that has all indexes covered. I think Vanguard has one. Boeing still can't get that plane that crashed twice cleared for takeoff and that is adding to their misery.


----------



## RadishRose (Mar 19, 2020)

This far?


----------



## Don M. (Mar 19, 2020)

My "Crystal Ball" is telling me Dow 17,000, S&P 2000, NASDAQ 6,000.  Then, only if these wild swings have ceased, will I be inclined to jump back into the markets.  I'm concerned that the unemployment numbers will rise substantially in coming weeks and months as a result of all the cutbacks and shutdowns that will surely be coming as this virus continues to spread.


----------



## Pecos (Mar 19, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Boeing closed today at $97.70 On February 14th it was $348.91 a drop of $251.21 per share in one month!! The govt. may have to bail them out because they are too critical to collapse. Looking at my stocks it is very tempting to buy but I am not ready to leap just yet. I think this corona thing will shed new light on internet buying so Walmart and Amazon which I own may see good times ahead. I am not big on mutual funds but buying an all markets index fund might be a safe bet being they are all beat down.


I talked to my son yesterday afternoon and he had just purchased some Boeing stock. He thought the price was too attractive to pass up. Personally, I am not buying anything.


----------



## Red Cinders (Mar 21, 2020)

I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P goes down to 1,700.  When hundreds of thousands of unemployment claims become the norm and earnings reports are negative, the market is going to freak even more.  While I'm young enough to still have a decent amount of money in the market, I converted a lot to cash last year.  Since then I've only been buying little bits of individual stocks that were on sale.


----------



## oldman (Mar 21, 2020)

Pecos said:


> I talked to my son yesterday afternoon and he had just purchased some Boeing stock. He thought the price was too attractive to pass up. Personally, I am not buying anything.


I follow BA quite closely and in fact, always flew Boeing equipment throughout my career as a pilot for United. I also traded BA quite a bit for years, even through the ups and downs.

I was impressed with their earnings and even the way they recovered after the two crashes on their newest version of their B-737-MAX. However, the 737-MAX still has not received approval from the FAA to fly again. All orders for the new plane were recalled by the various airlines that had purchased them. I’m not sure if they have even settled with the families of the 346 families that were killed in those two crashes.

Now, with travel being what it is, many of Boeing’s orders have been either cancelled or put on delayed delivery. Boeing is also asking for gov’t help (bailout). I think your son would have done better waiting before buying. It’s going to be awhile before recovery sets in for any travel  related industry. But, that’s just my opinion. Like the old saying goes, “Never buy a stock on the way down.” I wish him and all investors good luck.


----------



## mikermeals (Mar 21, 2020)

I am still all in but down 25% this year.  It is certainly scary but as they say the market is no place for the timid.  I have put a little in every day the market goes down 1,000 points. We could go down another 25% but life will return to normal at some point in the next six months. I would say one year from now I will be better off than the 1% return in money market.  Once there is a glimmer of hope with drugs that can treat the virus like Regeneron is working on the market will go up.  Markets look out into the future and like "certainty"and right now there is no end in sight or even a glimmer of hope.


----------



## oldman (Mar 21, 2020)

I think with the earnings reports coming out next month for the first quarter, the market may go lower because for most of the sectors, earnings shouldn’t be good. Certainly, the food sector should be spot on and maybe medical, but after that, who knows?

I pulled the plug when the market hit 26,500 or there about. I did the same back in 2008. I just couldn’t see the economy sustaining with oil at $150 pb. I have a very good friend who retired at 50 years old. He decided to ride it out. He started with a million and a half and when the blood letting was over, he had less than half million. He had to go back to work selling real estate and did recover.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 21, 2020)

JimBob1952 said:


> Right about the vaccine.  And I was talking about the US in regard to cures.  Although I'm not aware of a lot of innovative pharmaceuticals created by governments anywhere.


The U.S. is dependent on China.  Parmaceuticals is a big industry in China.
We should start a poll on which country will find a vaccine first for the COVID-19.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 21, 2020)

oldman said:


> I think perhaps you don’t understand how the market works. Take a large cap stock and as it declines, it will be removed from the large cap sector to the mid-cap sector. If it continues to decline, it was again be removed from the mid-cap sector to the small-cap sector. If it still declines, it could be de-listed and end up being traded on the OTC or as some call it, the pink sheet.
> 
> What the company’s value is when their assets, including cash and outstanding debts are tallied and then their liabilities, including their accounts payable is deducted to get a net value is different from what the stock is worth.
> 
> A company can have a billion dollars in assets, but if it isn’t bringing in any money with what they produce or products or services they supply, the stock isn’t worth much, if anything at all to investors.


It depends on what assets you are talking about.   Someone is always willing to take over a company that might have been mismanaged or didn't have enough capital to survive start up costs.


----------



## oldman (Mar 21, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> The U.S. is dependent on China.  Parmaceuticals is a big industry in China.
> We should start a poll on which country will find a vaccine first for the COVID-19.


To me, it doesn’t matter. Unless it is approved by the 


Camper6 said:


> It depends on what assets you are talking about.   Someone is always willing to take over a company that might have been mismanaged or didn't have enough capital to survive start up costs.


What you are talking about is a different duck. What I am referring to is a company that keeps their board through the process. If a company is sinking and is bought out, the previous shareholders would probably get only a fraction of the shares of the new company compared to what they are holding.

I owned stock in a waste management company. The stock sold for $17 when I bought 200 shares. It climbed to $30 and I continued to hold the stock. A few months later, they were denied an application to start a new landfill. The stock slowly began to sink, but I still held it. The stock fell to $20 when the company was bought out by a very huge waste management company. Their stock was selling at around $70 per share. I received 33 shares for my stock. Do the math. Not a big loss, but it was a loss, which was OK because I had a good year, so some capital loss helped with the taxes. I had another deal where I did receive enough stock that matched what my original investment was.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 21, 2020)

oldman said:


> To me, it doesn’t matter. Unless it is approved by the
> 
> What you are talking about is a different duck. What I am referring to is a company that keeps their board through the process. If a company is sinking and is bought out, the previous shareholders would probably get only a fraction of the shares of the new company compared to what they are holding.
> 
> I owned stock in a waste management company. The stock sold for $17 when I bought 200 shares. It climbed to $30 and I continued to hold the stock. A few months later, they were denied an application to start a new landfill. The stock slowly began to sink, but I still held it. The stock fell to $20 when the company was bought out by a very huge waste management company. Their stock was selling at around $70 per share. I received 33 shares for my stock. Do the math. Not a big loss, but it was a loss, which was OK because I had a good year, so some capital loss helped with the taxes. I had another deal where I did receive enough stock that matched what my original investment was.


I know all about that.  I went through it a long time ago.
But one company I was with that went under had a huge inventory of really good equipment.
They were taken over and are now quite successful.  I worked for them.

The shareholders were taking everything out and not putting anything back in.

Yes you got something and something is better than nothing.


----------



## mikermeals (Mar 21, 2020)

Pecos said:


> I talked to my son yesterday afternoon and he had just purchased some Boeing stock. He thought the price was too attractive to pass up. Personally, I am not buying anything.


Boeing, United Airlines, Verizon, JP Morgan...all on sale!


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 21, 2020)

mikermeals said:


> Boeing, United Airlines, Verizon, JP Morgan...all on sale!


no such thing as a sale .....  markets have no memory ... prices are what they are because that is all they are being valued it .... prices are lower , that is about all we can say ..  many stocks never went back to their pre 2000 days....

it makes us feel good to call it a sale , but it very well may  be these sales are still overpriced if it takes another 13 years inflation adjusted for markets to just break even with where they were.. it took the  s&p 500  13 years .   

so never confuse lower prices with SALES


----------



## Liberty (Mar 21, 2020)

Wondering how many owned Lowes and or Home Depot stock...look like good prospects in today's "stay at home, fix it up" lifestyle.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 21, 2020)

Liberty said:


> Wondering how many owned Lowes and or Home Depot stock...look like good prospects in today's "stay at home, fix it up" lifestyle.


well with the potential for a real estate market crash as people loose jobs , get pay cuts , hours cut ,  and business fail  many are just  not likely  going to spend an extra dime they dont have to. or few may want to put anymore money in to a an asset on the verge of falling like their homes .


home depot plunged 26% in one week


----------



## Liberty (Mar 21, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> well with the potential for a real estate market crash as people loose jobs , get pay cuts , hours cut ,  and business fail  many are just  not likely  going to spend an extra dime they dont have to. or few may want to put anymore money in to a an asset on the verge of falling like their homes .
> 
> 
> home depot plunged 26% in one week


Lets pray its not that bad, and just that this is a temporary measure get through this period.  Maybe a couple years from now you'll never know the difference, hopefully.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 21, 2020)

Liberty said:


> Lets pray its not that bad, and just that this is a temporary measure get through this period.  Maybe a couple years from now you'll never know the difference, hopefully.


We have a very flawed view here  perhaps since it is a crisis in this city beyond belief


----------



## Liberty (Mar 21, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> We have a very flawed view here  perhaps since it is a crisis in this city beyond belief


I certainly can understand why. I've had some that wanted to drive across several state lines to stay with us here ...to wait the stuff out here with us, but we discouraged them.  Who knows what they would encounter on the way down.  This is a perfect place to "shelter in place", though.  Who was it said if you have a library and a garden you will want for nothing?

 Say Just be patient, math...can imagine its so very different living in the city.  This will be in the rear view mirror.

Lets pray everything comes out fine and we get back to normal.  I was in quarantine for 9 months when 6 years old - almost died.  Now that's about 10 years in kids' time you know.  Still remember things about that period.  Recently it brought back a lot of memories.

We'll all get past this and be better people for it.  Bet you on that, guy!  What are your fav drive through fast food joints?

This is the first time and my life we are visiting them once in a while...hub loves it...lol.


----------



## debodun (Mar 21, 2020)

I've been monitoring my Franklin Templeton investment. It's in freefall. Lost $30K value in the last 4 days.


----------



## Don M. (Mar 22, 2020)

I just looked at the market futures....all are down about another 4% for Mondays opening.  Wall Street traders will not be working the trade floor, due to the stay at home directive, and most trading will be done by "automation".  A 50% drop from the Feb. highs is looking more and more like a real possibility.


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 22, 2020)

The consensus is when the market starts to recoup the rise will be sharp because it will be reacting to the virus concerns being reduced. If that is the case many will miss the initial upsurge unless they get real lucky. This could be the first time the average investor can make a call if they follow closely the predictions on the virus status.


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 22, 2020)

debodun said:


> I've been monitoring my Franklin Templeton investment. It's in freefall. Lost $30K value in the last 4 days.


You are not alone. Who really is going to get hurt is those close to retirement that have to push that day back and worse if they get laid off.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 23, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> You are not alone. Who really is going to get hurt is those close to retirement that have to push that day back and worse if they get laid off.


people who are going to be retiring and do so in a bull market make the mistake of putting the carrot on the stick ...they hang in there trying to get every last penny in gains with higher equity levels then they should .

it is never markets that spoil retirement plans , it is bad plans ....

with a pending retirement arrangements should be made to have lots of cash and bonds to hold you over just in case you get zapped right up front when you are ready to retire .

there are lots of all weather defensive portfolios that hold up well in times like this


----------



## Don M. (Mar 23, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> The consensus is when the market starts to recoup the rise will be sharp because it will be reacting to the virus concerns being reduced. If that is the case many will miss the initial upsurge unless they get real lucky. This could be the first time the average investor can make a call if they follow closely the predictions on the virus status.



Predicting any market recovery, during this crisis, is going to be Very Difficult.  There are so many Unknowns hitting the markets that we are probably entering "uncharted waters".  The Primary determinant will probably be progress on controlling the spread of this virus, and finding a cure....and that may be months from now.  Then, as the economy continues to be impacted by the expected numbers of job losses, etc., any sustained recovery may stretch out to 2 or 3 years....if not more.  I doubt there will be any "V" shaped recovery of the markets, especially the longer this uncertainty remains.  About all an investor can do, at this point, is follow the financial and global news closely, and carefully evaluate their own financial "health", and asses their tolerance to risk.  If a person is able to "guess" successfully, the gains could be substantial in coming years...but, at this point, investing is almost like playing Roulette at the casino.


----------



## Liberty (Mar 23, 2020)

Just Skyped with my friend at WHO...think we'll have a while to go till they get the "magic bullet".  It could be scary opening back up the international flights. That seems to be where a volume of new cases are evidenced.  Look at Hong Kong.


----------



## oldman (Mar 23, 2020)

I have to retract my previous comments regarding the market going lower after earnings come in next month. I believe now that poor earnings are already being written into the prices of stocks now.

I really can’t see some of the big caps going much lower, except maybe for those in the travel business. Discretionary stocks should kick up, especially after the stimulus checks go out.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 23, 2020)

with our governor  saying today we may remain sheltered in place until june things are getting very very bad in ny.... i think markets may be only  2/3's to half way to the bottom .


----------



## Pepper (Mar 23, 2020)

The stimulus checks going to individuals will be chump change and many will receive no checks at all.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 23, 2020)

Pepper said:


> The stimulus checks going to individuals will be chump change and many will receive no checks at all.


like last time , it wont stimulate a thing ..it will pay already existing bills or go in to savings .... very little bought new things ... they don't give it to the higher incomes who ironically would likely spend it on new stuff


----------



## oldman (Mar 23, 2020)

At $23.5 trillion in debt, I have to believe the U.S. has crossed the line of no return. Even with the Fed buying up debt, I just can’t figure where or how the U.S. would ever be able to pay off that much debt. Taxes have to go up, yes, but how else would we raise revenue?

Everyone has an opinion on how and when, but I haven’t seen anything happen that seems to work. Now, we are about to borrow or print more money. It seems there is no limit to the blood letting. I mean, enough is enough, don’t you think?


----------



## Don M. (Mar 23, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> with our governor  saying today we may remain sheltered in place until june things are getting very very bad in ny.... i think markets may be only  2/3's to half way to the bottom .



NYC has become the "epicenter" for this virus, in the US, in recent days.  With such a huge population, in such a limited space, the worst may be yet to come.  When all people are banned from the trading floor on Wall Street, you know things are really bad.  Presently, the most pessimistic analysts are calling for a 50% drop in equities....and even they may seem "optimistic" before this is all over.


----------



## oldman (Mar 23, 2020)

Don M. said:


> NYC has become the "epicenter" for this virus, in the US, in recent days.  With such a huge population, in such a limited space, the worst may be yet to come.  When all people are banned from the trading floor on Wall Street, you know things are really bad.  Presently, the most pessimistic analysts are calling for a 50% drop in equities....and even they may seem "optimistic" before this is all over.


The Surgeon General stated this morning that this will be a terrible week and he expects the virus to to worsen here in the U.S.


----------



## Don M. (Mar 23, 2020)

oldman said:


> At $23.5 trillion in debt, I have to believe the U.S. has crossed the line of no return. Even with the Fed buying up debt, I just can’t figure where or how the U.S. would ever be able to pay off that much debt. Taxes have to go up, yes, but how else would we raise revenue?  Everyone has an opinion on how and when, but I haven’t seen anything happen that seems to work. Now, we are about to borrow or print more money. It seems there is no limit to the blood letting. I mean, enough is enough, don’t you think?



During WWII, the US ran up a massive debt.  In the years that followed, taxes were raised to as high as 92%, and the debt was paid off by the early to mid 1950's.  What are the chances that today's people, or our government, would make such a sacrifice....Slim, or None???

Ultimately, the U.S. will most likely follow the examples of Greece or Argentina, and devalue the dollar to reduce the nation's debt.  If /when that happens the vast majority of our households will be reduced to living at or near poverty standards.  

Our government seems to think that reducing taxes and "buying" its way out of every crisis is the answer to maintaining our standard of living.  However, at some point Reality will set in, and our economy will be decimated.  

Governments are no different than individuals when it comes to money.  People who amass too much debt go bankrupt.  Governments may be able to delay their demise by playing games with money, but in the end, they too, will wind up the same.


----------



## Pepper (Mar 23, 2020)

Taxes should never have gone down, especially to who they went down for.


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 23, 2020)

It I all guess work- when will the virus subside and what will the market do. Got any dice?


----------



## Pepper (Mar 23, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> It I all guess work- when will the virus subside and what will the market do. Got any dice?


The market was falsely over-inflated and was bound to crash by next year.  My parents taught me a lot about the Great Depression and what to look out for.  The market popped like a balloon.


----------



## Camper6 (Mar 23, 2020)

Don M. said:


> During WWII, the US ran up a massive debt.  In the years that followed, taxes were raised to as high as 92%, and the debt was paid off by the early to mid 1950's.  What are the chances that today's people, or our government, would make such a sacrifice....Slim, or None???
> 
> Ultimately, the U.S. will most likely follow the examples of Greece or Argentina, and devalue the dollar to reduce the nation's debt.  If /when that happens the vast majority of our households will be reduced to living at or near poverty standards.
> 
> ...


A country can never go bankrupt. They have the printing press in the basement so to speak. Devalue the money and pay off the debt. Germany did that after World War One.


----------



## Gardenlover (Mar 23, 2020)

This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor. 
Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].

Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].


----------



## Aunt Bea (Mar 23, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
> Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].
> 
> Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].


I would be interested in one of those crystal balls if you are running a special to jump-start the economy.

As far as the redistribution of wealth the books that I've read seem to indicate that it would be temporary at best.


----------



## Pepper (Mar 23, 2020)

Camper6 said:


> A country can never go bankrupt. They have the printing press in the basement so to speak. Devalue the money and pay off the debt.* Germany did that after World War One.*


And look where that led.............


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 23, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
> Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].
> 
> Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].


The way to equalize is not by bringing the top down but bringing the bottom up ...this is just going to lower the bottom as well making it worse for them


----------



## Liberty (Mar 23, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> This may well equalize the playing field between the rich and the poor.
> Perhaps, it's time to entertain new avenues of producing income. As is typical, early adapters will be ahead of the curve [masses].
> 
> Any body want to buy a crystal ball? I got a bunch of them in my trunk [boot].


I say 3 months is the magic timeline...and this will mostly be in our rear view mirror.  Believe the powers that be already know they can't go longer than 3 months without suffering direly ( economically speaking).


----------



## fmdog44 (Mar 25, 2020)

I believe the virus related jobless numbers come out tomorrow the 26th. Get ready for a loud thud.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 26, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> I believe the virus related jobless numbers come out tomorrow the 26th. Get ready for a loud thud.


markets will be down likely   but those numbers are anticipated already for the most part .. they have to be far worse than the bad already expected


----------



## Don M. (Mar 26, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> I believe the virus related jobless numbers come out tomorrow the 26th. Get ready for a loud thud.



The markets are up nicely this morning, probably as a response to this Stimulus package being passed.  I suspect Wall Street has already priced this latest unemployment number into the trading.  However, I doubt that the volatility will be over until this disease starts showing signs of slowing down.  Coming weeks could show unemployment numbers rising well into double digits, and even more businesses being impacted...and this will certainly have a major negative effect on the markets. 

We are in uncharted waters with this current epidemic, and no one can predict what is going to happen in the next few weeks.


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 26, 2020)

Don M. said:


> The markets are up nicely this morning, probably as a response to this Stimulus package being passes.  I suspect Wall Street has already priced this latest unemployment number into the trading.  However, I doubt that the volatility will be over until this disease starts showing signs of slowing down.  Coming weeks could show unemployment numbers rising well into double digits, and even more businesses being impacted...and this will certainly have a major negative effect on the markets.
> 
> We are in uncharted waters with this current epidemic, and no one can predict what is going to happen in the next few weeks.


 some analysts were predicting 4 million , so we are less bad


----------



## oldmontana (Mar 26, 2020)

Don M. said:


> The markets are up nicely this morning, probably as a response to this Stimulus package being passed.  I suspect Wall Street has already priced this latest unemployment number into the trading.  However, I doubt that the volatility will be over until this disease starts showing signs of slowing down.  Coming weeks could show unemployment numbers rising well into double digits, and even more businesses being impacted...and this will certainly have a major negative effect on the markets.
> 
> We are in uncharted waters with this current epidemic, and no one can predict what is going to happen in the next few weeks.


I think it will level out.  Will it come back to were it was a month ago...yes, in time which could be _____________ ?


----------



## oldman (Mar 26, 2020)

WOW!! I am having a great day. I bought Boeing on Monday at $100.14. Today, at , I sold it for $183.56 at 11 a.m. Not bad, except I only had 200 shares. Why, oh why didn't I buy a 1000? Of course, now I have to share the profit with Uncle Sam. That will bring my profit down a few doubloons. In fact, quite a few doubloons. 

I do this to myself every time. I always think big and then invest small. Anyone else do that?


----------



## mathjak107 (Mar 26, 2020)

I don’t bother with small trades ...if it is worth doing I go large but with a stop loss if I am wrong ...I only trade stocks for fun ...my core is funds which have done very well the last 33 years for me .

Many times I will take a shot at something that plunged and hope to get a bounce ....if you see my trading statement it will show 100 bucks , 50 buck gains. ....that is where I guessed wrong ....it basically Went up a bit , not enough to see and then fell hitting the trailing stop loss ....

But the biggest gainers I let run bringing in 20 - 30k in a few months if not weeks.

Last year my fun trading brought in 162k .....my regular portfolio brought in just a bit more .....but the trading is not as consistent.


----------



## oldman (Mar 26, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> I don’t bother with small trades ...if it is worth doing I go large but with a stop loss if I am wrong ...I only trade stocks for fun ...my core is funds which have done very well the last 33 years for me .
> 
> Many times I will take a shot at something that plunged and hope to get a bounce ....if you see my trading statement it will show 100 bucks , 50 buck gains. ....that is where I guessed wrong ....it basically Went up a bit , not enough to see and then fell hitting the trailing stop loss ....
> 
> ...


All of my "fun" trading goes to charity. I have SS, my family's trust and a great pension from United, not to mention my wife's SS, pension from the University and her family trust. I don't keep any of this fun money. 

You don't have to be smart to be a winner in the market right now. However, the markets will soon calm down. The big caps will come roaring back, so says all the experts on CNBC.


----------



## OneEyedDiva (Mar 28, 2020)

Your guess is as good as anybody's.


----------



## WhatInThe (Mar 28, 2020)

This is new territory. In the US I think as soon as the numbers start looking better in NYC and/or LA/California things might react more favorably. 

The stimulus not shorten a recession. Might transition from a depression to recession but it won't cure all. Goes back to the old saying timing is everything. Unfortunately the virus came out ahead here. Too many were already living with very frail finances even if they made over a 100K a year. Too many will never catch up or make up losses. Other will be very cautious. And as usual many will try to exploit the rules making things even worse. Just like the 08 bubble many who's lives had zero bearing on the housing bubble collapse used that as their excuse for bankruptcies, unemployment etc.


----------



## Don M. (Mar 28, 2020)

IMO, this market volatility is far from over.  Every bit of news seems to drive the markets wildly every day, in recent weeks.  The U.S. is just now entering the "peak" of this virus epidemic....if the events in China, and Europe are any indicator....and until that situation settles down, market volatility is probably going to be the "norm".   I see little that the government can do, quickly, that will change things....and simply "throwing money" at this health crisis is Not going to speed up it's control. 

I will not be surprised if this situation exists, in the U.S., well into the late Spring/early Summer timeframe.


----------



## debodun (Apr 2, 2020)

My Franklin Templeton account lost over $17,000 from last month.


----------



## fmdog44 (Apr 17, 2020)

debodun said:


> My Franklin Templeton account lost over $17,000 from last month.


You are not alone, trust me.


----------



## sehr alt (May 7, 2020)

Judycat said:


> You got to know when to hold 'em
> Know when to fold 'em
> Know when to walk away
> Know when to run
> ...


I'm seeing it this way. With the threat of disease hanging over us, and the economy in the toilet, better times are ahead. But when ? It might come when every state has opened up again, the economy is recovering strongly, and it's time to buy stocks. Timing is the essence. I'm sehr alt.


----------



## mathjak107 (May 7, 2020)

sehr alt said:


> I'm seeing it this way. With the threat of disease hanging over us, and the economy in the toilet, better times are ahead. But when ? It might come when every state has opened up again, the economy is recovering strongly, and it's time to buy stocks. Timing is the essence. I'm sehr alt.




the time to buy is before  things look any better . markets shift on future perception long before we see anything positive ...

don't forget , markets have already projected about a 25%  decline in earnings first quarter and 30% the 2nd for markets . that is why we are still down about 6000 points .

cutting employees , spending and  expenses all goes right to the bottom line ...things just have to be less bad ,for stocks to go up


----------

