# Prepare For A 23% Cut In Your Social Security Benefits



## OneEyedDiva

There has been conjecture by financial analysts about this for several years. Then one day after logging in to my SSA page, I saw the "warning" posted right there on the home page.  Soon after it was taken down but about a year or so ago, I received a message in my SS message box about the same 23% cut which is supposed to take place in 2033 or 2034 and will affect every recipient. I wish I had taken a screen shot because that went away as well. Now 2033 may seem like a long ways off but not when one has to prepare to make up the difference financially for that shortfall. i'm posting about this because I want seniors to be aware that it's time to tighten the belts, sock away as much as humanly possible and learn to be frugal. 

If you're in debt, time to work toward being debt free. Also for whoever has not filed for SS yet and expects to have longevity, consider what your benefit will be after the cut and factor that into whether or not you will take it early or wait.  A few years ago, I would have said take it early, no doubt. But 23% is a huge cut and can be a game changer.  I took mine early and have no regrets but I invest my entire benefit and will receive income from those investments to cover the shortfall. This is no joke and I'm hoping that our new administration does nothing to speed up that timeline. Not sure they even can, but just in case, I'm preparing for the cut.  Here's an article about the cut and why it will be necessary:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/...Million-Americans-This-Should-be-a-Huge-Issue


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## Ken N Tx

At least they predict it to be here in 2033!!


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## mathjak107

they find money for all these wars which is far in excess of the ss shortfall. this to will get resolved


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## Ken N Tx

mathjak107 said:


> they find money for all these wars which is far in excess of the ss shortfall. this to will get resolved



Keep a few $$$$$ for us instead of sending it to our haters!!!!!


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## JayBird

I don't understand why they can't raise the limit on contributions.  Why do the rich need a 15% tax break?  Aren't their taxes at the lowest ever?  Most pay the same taxes as folks making far less than they do.


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## mathjak107

actually no . if your income is high enough you are not on the regular tax system . you go on the AMT tax system which is far more painful . we hit it every once in a while when we sell some investment property .once the phase outs are reached it is just about a flat tax from dollar one .

last time we hit the amt our share of taxes jumped 16k over what the regular system was for the same income . that does not include the jump in state and local taxes either from it .


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## JayBird

Yes but with deductions it can be different.  Didn't Warren Buffet say his secretary paid the same amount of tax he did?


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## mathjak107

wrong , there are no exemptions and almost no deductions allowed on the amt tax system .  most folks are not buffet nor have the conditions or the wealth that allow him options .

for high earners it is an easy system , and basically a flat tax .

all software today has to run both tax systems on a return automatically. the amt is tripped at levels that here in nyc are not even considered wealthy . they are just middle to upper middle class .


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## JayBird

We are talking federal tax right?  Is NYC different in some way?


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## Manatee

In 2034 I will be 100 years old.  Would they do that to a centenarian?


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## mathjak107

JayBird said:


> We are talking federal tax right?  Is NYC different in some way?




yes federal .   the federal tax system uses two simultaneous run tax systems . only thing unique about nyc is we have very very high state and city taxes too but that is besides the point .

because the alternative minimum tax system is run automatically today most folks are not aware you pay the higher taxes of the two .

 you pay a flat tax at 28% from dollar 1 . no  marginal tax rates where up to x amount you pay x , then if you go over you pay y on the difference . nope , it is right from dollar 1 and it is painful .


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## Knight

I'll go with One Eye Diva's advice. Those that could live long enough to by affected should prepare for their own well being. 

The idea that someone is successful and has made more money than another should be penalized for being successful is the kind of thinking that is dividing America. Personal responsibility for ones own welfare should be the standard thinking.


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## Bullie76

Always best to prepare for the worst. But I believe there will be some tweaks to the system that will push a major cut well down the road. Medicare is the monster that worries me.


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## mathjak107

Knight said:


> I'll go with One Eye Diva's advice. Those that could live long enough to by affected should prepare for their own well being.
> 
> The idea that someone is successful and has made more money than another should be penalized for being successful is the kind of thinking that is dividing America. Personal responsibility for ones own welfare should be the standard thinking.




those that really want to succeed will find a way , the rest will just find an excuse


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## Ken N Tx

I keep thinking of the quote "Rob Peter to pay Paul"..
.


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## OneEyedDiva

Manatee said:


> In 2034 I will be 100 years old.  Would they do that to a centenarian?


Yes they would Manatee!  LOL   Lord I hope I don't live that long! But my mom (not biologically) lived to be 97. So I decided to plan to live at least that long anyway.


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## QuickSilver

It is a LIE, LIE, LIE that Social Security and Medicare contribute to the national debt OR are included in the budget.. They are fully funded by FICA contributions...  If the fund hadn't been robbed to pay for unfunded wars, and tax cuts to the wealthy this wouldn't be an issue.. BUT again, seniors will be asked to shoulder the burden of this short-sightedness..


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## mathjak107

the fund was never robbed . the fund can only invest in special treasury dept security's by law  with excess funds .  the gov't has never defaulted on any of these bonds as far as paying them back with interest .

just like any bonds we buy the reciever is free to do as they please with the borrowed money . it is no more robbing the fund then you can say the gov't is robbing your mutual fund because it owns treasury bonds and the gov't used the money it raised .


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## garyt1957

JayBird said:


> Yes but with deductions it can be different.  Didn't Warren Buffet say his secretary paid the same amount of tax he did?



 No, the same %. He probably paid 100's times the taxes she did.


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## boaterboi

First off, relax, this cut will not happen. 

SS does not need to be self funding. If funds run out then it will become subsidized by the government just as other social programs are.

A task force must be assembled to look into every case and weed out the fraud and stop the benefits still going out to dead people.

Perhaps most importantly the rampant fraud of SS disability must be stopped. In my opinion, disability should not be part of SS but should be a separate program along the likes of welfare and food stamps. I personally know 3 people on disability and 2 should not be. Also 2 are under age of 30. Disability is sucking SS dry.

Stop worrying. There is no way in hell this country is going to cut senior's retirement benefits.


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## mathjak107

i agree


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## Ken N Tx

boaterboi said:


> First off, relax, this cut will not happen.
> 
> SS does not need to be self funding. If funds run out then it will become subsidized by the government just as other social programs are.
> 
> A task force must be assembled to look into every case and weed out the fraud and stop the benefits still going out to dead people.
> 
> Perhaps most importantly the rampant fraud of SS disability must be stopped. In my opinion, disability should not be part of SS but should be a separate program along the likes of welfare and food stamps. I personally know 3 people on disability and 2 should not be. Also 2 are under age of 30. Disability is sucking SS dry.
> 
> Stop worrying. There is no way in hell this country is going to cut senior's retirement benefits.





mathjak107 said:


> i agree


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## CaroleC

boaterboi said:


> First off, relax, this cut will not happen.
> 
> SS does not need to be self funding. If funds run out then it will become subsidized by the government just as other social programs are.
> 
> [...]
> 
> Stop worrying. There is no way in hell this country is going to cut senior's retirement benefits.



I agree completely. 

Also, by 2033 I will be 85 years old. I will have received my full SS for many years by then. I have other sources of income, so I am not too worried.


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## Lon

I have been receiving SS Benefits each month since 1996 and you are telling me to look out for a 23% cut?   NO WAY Ain't gonna happen.


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## OneEyedDiva

Lon said:


> I have been receiving SS Benefits each month since 1996 and you are telling me to look out for a 23% cut?   NO WAY Ain't gonna happen.


I'm just posting about what I actually saw on the SS.gov website, not once but twice. I sure wish I had taken a screen shot of that notice. Now whether they'll fix the problem by then I can't say but financial analysts have also looked ahead and predicted the cut will be necessary because there will be more Boomers retiring, thus loss of that income for the SS fund. That will putting a strain on the system. And if you think they REALLY care about benefits for us seniors, think again. If that were the case, why did we only get the piddling $3, some $4 or maybe $5 a month raise only to have that eaten up by a Medicare increase? The formula they use to compute the COLAs is NOT beneficial to seniors.


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## Aunt Bea

IMO we will not see an actual cut to our benefits, I think it will be more subtle.

I think that the rate of inflation will go up faster than the Social Security COLA allowance and we will see our purchasing power reduced, not the actual benefit.


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## mathjak107

the cola adjustments have nothing to do with anyone's personal cost of living . in fact the cpi is just a price tracker on a basket of goods and services . you  may use little of what went up or down or a lot .

the cpi is a measure of no ones personal cost of living . this is why inflation proof bonds are not a very good idea . your costs will never match up with a price change index .

how many times you buy something x the price change x some quality factor is what makes up your own personal cost of living .  better products tend to have higher mark ups and increases so what you buy quality wise is a factor . it may be more , have a higher price increase but not get replaced as much ..

renters can see greater inflation than homeowners with fixed or paid off mortgages  too so there really is no way any cpi index apply's to you .


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## Butterfly

what you say above may be true; however, Aunt Bea is still right about the fact the the Medicare premium ate up any increase we got, and that the fact we got no increase affects our purchasing power.  Prices on almost everything went up last year, and our SS hasn't gone up for 2 years not.


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## mathjak107

the reality is whether we like it or not any inflation adjusting to match our individual cost of living has to come from our own savings and investments . it is really no different than my working years when i got a raise and the increases in our health insurance exceeded the raise . at least now they are capped at the amount of the raise if you are collecting .

the united states consists of 1500 mini economy's and we all see things differently . this is the 2nd year in a row for as long as i can remember ,we had no rent increases for 1/2 of nyc's housing which effects millions of people ..

my wife went on medicare and our health insurance dropped a lot . driving our jeep was cheaper than ever thanks to low energy costs . but what we saw i bet is not what you saw ...


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## Knight

IMO reading and understanding what mathjak107 said is important. Where you live, how you planned for retirement, makes a difference in each persons perception about the projected cut 17 years from now. 

It may come down as an individual do you think the projected cut is really going to be needed?  I do, but I doubt I'll be alive to be affected by it.


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## mathjak107

just think of the difference in inflation between someone owning a house in cheapsville usa  vs renting in the bay area or long island or westchester.

another factor is discretionary income . 

study after study shows that senior spending is smile shaped  as we age . we tend to spend more early on in retirement , then spending falls off a cliff  until our 80's when it ramps up again for healthcare .

what we no longer do or buy as we age tends to  have those dollars cover the increases in the things we do buy and do .  that makes inflation effects a lot less .

but if everything is a need and non discretionary then the likelihood of cutting back on  certain things is nil when everything is a need and not just a want  .


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## Buckeye

I checked the SS actuary tables and I'm scheduled to kick the bucket the last week of November, 2030.  So I don't have to worry about 2033


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## mathjak107

as michael kitces said :

“life expectancy” can be a somewhat misleading term. Many people hear the term and think of it as a measure of how long they can “expect to live”. In reality, though, life expectancy is a measure of the _average_ time a person within some particular population is expected to live. While the average is meaningful in many respects, it may not always provide the best measure for setting expectations about the actual age someone is likely to reach. Because mortality rates aren’t constant across a lifespan and the distribution of ages at death are heavily skewed (i.e., more people die old than young), commonly cited life expectancy measures—particularly life expectancy at birth, which is most often cited in the media—may result in misleading expectations.
For instance, a child born in 2014 has a life expectancy (average age at death) of 79. However, the median age of death for the same child is 83, and the modal (most common) age at death is 89! Given the shape of the distribution of ages at death (negatively skewed), it’s simply a mathematical fact that the mean is going to be lower than the median or the mode.


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> just think of the difference in inflation between someone owning a house in cheapsville usa  vs renting in the bay area or long island or westchester.
> 
> another factor is discretionary income .
> 
> study after study shows that senior spending is smile shaped  as we age . we tend to spend more early on in retirement , then spending falls off a cliff  until our 80's when it ramps up again for healthcare .
> 
> what we no longer do or buy as we age tends to  have those dollars cover the increases in the things we do buy and do .  that makes inflation effects a lot less .
> 
> but if everything is a need and non discretionary then the likelihood of cutting back on  certain things is nil when everything is a need and not just a want  .


That's all well and good Mathiak107 but I have online friends who are suffering financially, who are stretched to the max with their incomes. Any increase in food and medications is painful to them. I know people who are not even close to their 80's yet who are taking several medications. Their Medicare plan is not an excellent one like mine is. They are paying a lot out of pocket. And I don't know what formula they are using to count food because food has gone up more than .030%.

And you are right about the life expectancy tables. I'm sure my mother wouldn't have made it to 80 based upon what some sites use to "tell you" how long you can expect to live. She was overweight, had smoked until she was probably in her 40's or 50's. She didn't get much exercise unless you count housework. She ate fatty foods since she did the southern cooking thing. My mother lived to be 97 years old.


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## mathjak107

it really does not matter what personal situations are when you are  talking about the cost of living adjustments based on 1500 mini economies . someone having an under funded retirement is their own issue . not that we can't feel bad for them but  when you fail financially to be able to adequately provide for your retirement there are other issues involved other than social security trying to match your personal situation . .

unfortunately retirement is a privilege for those who can afford not to have to find a way to work . no one is guaranteed the right not to have to work at any age . that falls on us personally with ss as just a safety net or supplement to our own means .

yeah , not everyone can have the means to retire  , or even can work , but disability and ss are not made to support everyone who can't  in the manner they like . the burden is really  on all of us is to at least achieve enough of a way to support ourselves if we can't work  . that is just how the system here is , good or bad . the fact someone can't has nothing to do with how cola's are calculated .


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> it really does not matter what personal situations are when you are  talking about the cost of living adjustments based on 1500 mini economies . someone having an under funded retirement is their own issue . not that we can't feel bad for them but  when you fail financially to be able to adequately provide for your retirement there are other issues involved other than social security trying to match your personal situation . .
> 
> unfortunately retirement is a privilege for those who can afford not to have to find a way to work . no one is guaranteed the right not to have to work at any age . that falls on us personally with ss as just a safety net or supplement to our own means .
> 
> yeah , not everyone can have the means to retire  , or even can work , but disability and ss are not made to support everyone who can't  in the manner they like . the burden is really  on all of us is to at least achieve enough of a way to support ourselves if we can't work  . that is just how the system here is , good or bad . the fact someone can't has nothing to do with how cola's are calculated .


You are right mathjak107. Unfortunately too large a percent of the population has either ignored the importance of planning for their senior years or just never had enough funds to do so. I know people who made good money...heck had great salaries and spent like it was water coming out of a tap. It's as if they thought it would last forever. Then they fell on hard times when their income streams either stopped or were reduced. America as a whole is in a pitiful state as far as retirement readiness is concerned.


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## Aunt Bea

OneEyedDiva said:


> You are right mathjak107. Unfortunately too large a percent of the population has either ignored the importance of planning for their senior years or just never had enough funds to do so. I know people who made good money...heck had great salaries and spent like it was water coming out of a tap. It's as if they thought it would last forever. Then they fell on hard times when their income streams either stopped or were reduced. America as a whole is in a pitiful state as far as retirement readiness is concerned.



I fear it may get worse when the kids find out that mom and dad spent the inheritance.


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## OneEyedDiva

Aunt Bea said:


> I fear it may get worse when the kids find out that mom and dad spent the inheritance.


I had gone to two pre-retirement seminars the state offered for it's workers. That was over 20 years ago. A different financial planner spoke at each event. Both of them advised that we not think of leaving inheritances for our children. I would love to leave something for my son and plan to unless I get a catastrophic illness, have to go into a nursing home or there are drastic changes in our group Medicare plan. But he knows not to count on it. My son says he wouldn't put me in a home but circumstances could change that. I've talked with him and my oldest grandson about getting serious regarding retirement planning and my grandson is only 27. As the song says "Mama may have and poppa may have but God bless the child that has his own".


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## Peanut

Oneeye, From what i've read and understood i don't think that they can touch the pensions of the people whom are currently on ss payments. I believe it only pertains to those who are not as yet receiving their benefits.


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## Butterfly

mathjak107 said:


> those that really want to succeed will find a way , the rest will just find an excuse



That's a pretty insensitive and elitist statement, and I do not believe it to be true.


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## mathjak107

think what you want but it is as true as true can be .

we all go through one of the big three at some point , illness-divorce -job loss . but we all come out very different . a lot of how you end up is based on a history of poor choices and bad decions coupled with motivation ,creativity and a desire to pull a head .

i saw it first hand with the guys i am still friendly with from when i lived in a nyc housing project .

when my career as a pro drummer was being hurt by D.J's back in the 1970's i saw the hand writing on the wall . i needed a new career path . well i thought long and hard and found one . i begged my project buddy's to go to the trade school with me .

there was no way raising my own family was ever going to be in the projects . well they declined and today they all are raising their own family's in the projects , complaining about their low paying jobs and blaming everything and everyone around them .  that is a story that repeats over and over sadly .

it is no different than losing weight . very few of the obese population actually have a medical reason . for most it boils down to eat less-move more . but there are more reasons and excuses than carter had pills .

yeah ,some may be valid reasons , we all get that , but that is not the majority . i mean we even have cardio machines at our gym that can use arms only if you have leg and back issues .

those that really want to find a way will generally end up finding a way .

financially it is rarely the "event " that does someone in . it is a history of poor choices , poor prep work  and bad decisions generally that leads up to the financial disaster when the event hits .

most of us want to do better but we lack  the drive , motivation , control of our lives  and creativity to really make it happen . in that case there are lots of excuses and none of them ever reflect those reasons i listed , you can be sure of that.


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## nvtribefan

mathjak107 said:


> think what you want but it is as true as true can be .
> 
> .



I don't buy it, either.  For you, it may be true.


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## mathjak107

then we will all have to agree to disagree .


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> think what you want but it is as true as true can be .
> 
> we all go through one of the big three at some point , illness-divorce -job loss . but we all come out very different . a lot of how you end up is based on a history of poor choices and bad decions coupled with motivation ,creativity and a desire to pull a head .
> 
> i saw it first hand with the guys i am still friendly with from when i lived in a nyc housing project .
> 
> when my career as a pro drummer was being hurt by D.J's back in the 1970's i saw the hand writing on the wall . i needed a new career path . well i thought long and hard and found one . i begged my project buddy's to go to the trade school with me .
> 
> there was no way raising my own family was ever going to be in the projects . well they declined and today they all are raising their own family's in the projects , complaining about their low paying jobs and blaming everything and everyone around them .  that is a story that repeats over and over sadly .
> 
> it is no different than losing weight . very few of the obese population actually have a medical reason . for most it boils down to eat less-move more . but there are more reasons and excuses than carter had pills .
> 
> yeah ,some may be valid reasons , we all get that , but that is not the majority . i mean we even have cardio machines at our gym that can use arms only if you have leg and back issues .
> 
> those that really want to find a way will generally end up finding a way .
> 
> financially it is rarely the "event " that does someone in . it is a history of poor choices , poor prep work  and bad decisions generally that leads up to the financial disaster when the event hits .
> 
> most of us want to do better but we lack  the drive , motivation , control of our lives  and creativity to really make it happen . in that case there are lots of excuses and none of them ever reflect those reasons i listed , you can be sure of that.


I understand where you are coming from with this Mathjak. I believe that often what you are saying is true but the generalization is what may have come off as elitist. I know people who have made bad choices and even with continued good advice from loved ones, they continued to make those same bad choices. Now they are suffering the consequences. I don't know why people do that. But I've also read stories about people who did everything "right"...had great jobs, saved money, invested well, took good care of themselves and BOOM..something unexpected and catastrophic happened that they just could not recover from. One such story was about a couple who started out well off. The husband racked up several medical bills (don't know what kind of insurance he had) and they got drained. They became homeless and were living in a "tent city" here in N.J. that the city government came in a knocked down. The residents had even built a wooden structure they used as a church. Because of their ages and the husband's health, it was nearly impossible for them to find other work.


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## mathjak107

i did say there are exceptions  and there are . but very few are true exceptions . i think we can all think of someone who is that exception .


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> i did say there are exceptions  and there are . but very few are true exceptions . i think we can all think of someone who is that exception .


BTW...cool that you were a professional drummer!  Do you still play?


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## mathjak107

actually yes . i hated the business after so many years and  i put down the sticks 35 years ago . never taught my kids , never brought it up . but  for decades i banged on everything in sight . well when i retired my wife said why don't you get a set of pads and play . at first i didn't want to but then i said what the heck .

well it was love at first sight . i have not put those sticks down in over a year . not only that , but  through facebook  the band from 35 years ago hooked up . we hit the studio last month and we are all chomping at the bit for the next session


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## Lost in retirement

A reduction will never happen for those already on Social Security. It is future beneficiaries  that need to worry.


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## mathjak107

they will have a cut off like they did for file and suspend if they make changes . it will likely not effect anyone close to collecting .

i don't see reductions in the cards anyway .  it would be political suicide with 80 million voting baby boomers


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## Pattypan

"those that really want to succeed will find a way , the rest will just find an excuse." 

Easier said than done.  A tad mean spirited too.  We all come from different places, backgrounds, and times.   We all have different challenges and concerns.  Also, life isn't fair.  If somebody told you it is they've lied to you.  We might talk a good talk about equality but any reasonable person knows deep down it's bull. 

"Walk a mile in another person's shoes" is more my way of thinking.


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## boaterboi

Fake news. SS is safe.


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## Butterfly

boaterboi said:


> Fake news. SS is safe.



I believe it is, at least for now, anyway.


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## dpwspringer

Butterfly said:


> I believe it is, at least for now, anyway.


Social Security depends on people have good paying jobs so there is a continuing money flow. All these factories moving overseas, outsourcing, etc could have done enough damage to cause a huge blow... I don't know. Let's hope our government starts taking more of a long term view of our economy/country and does the right things.


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## mathjak107

factory jobs are gone regardless for the most part . ever see a new modern cnc controlled factory in china ? they are state of the art and use very few people to manufacture . i  just retired from the factory automation field here in the states which is booming .

even if trump brought more manufacturing back , it requires a fraction of  the people  it used to and at a lower skill lower skill level . robots can perform these jobs at a more efficient higher rate than humans


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## Knight

mathjak107 said:


> factory jobs are gone regardless for the most part . ever see a new modern cnc controlled factory in china ? they are state of the art and use very few people to manufacture . i  just retired from the factory automation field here in the states which is booming .
> 
> even if trump brought more manufacturing back , it requires a fraction of  the people  it used to and at a lower skill lower skill level . robots can perform these jobs at a more efficient higher rate than humans



Robots don't pay into the Soc. Sec. system so it stands to reason that there will be less money to draw from in the future. Tapering off outgoing payments is a no brainer, but like everything else don't begin until I get mine. 

I'd hate to be around when the politicians that will have to deal with the problem if some action isn't put in place now to remedy what everyone should understand is coming.


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## OneEyedDiva

Peanut said:


> Oneeye, From what i've read and understood i don't think that they can touch the pensions of the people whom are currently on ss payments. I believe it only pertains to those who are not as yet receiving their benefits.


Peanut and all who don't think the cut will happen...here's a letter (I posted in it's own post but no one responded) detailing about the cuts. I synopsized it but the link is for the entire document. If you find a stipulation that says for new beneficiaries only, please tell me where you see it. As I mentioned, when I first started reading about the proposed cut the articles said everyone on SS would be affected.
The letter is addressed to the Hon. Sam Johnson, Subcommittee on SS, House of Representatives and dated Dec. 8, 2016. This is an excerpt from Pg 4 of the letter. "Under current law, 79 percent of scheduled benefits are projected to be payable on a timely basis in 2034 after depletion of the combined trust fund reserves, with the percentage payable declining to 74 percent for 2090. Under the plan, the OASDI program would be solvent throughout the 75-year projection period, and would have the ability to pay 100 percent of scheduled benefits on a timely basis for the foreseeable future." 
There are additional provisions in this document. You can read the entire document here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/SJohnson_20161208.pdf


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## dpwspringer

mathjak107 said:


> factory jobs are gone regardless for the most part . ever see a new modern cnc controlled factory in china ? they are state of the art and use very few people to manufacture . i  just retired from the factory automation field here in the states which is booming .
> 
> even if trump brought more manufacturing back , it requires a fraction of  the people  it used to and at a lower skill lower skill level . robots can perform these jobs at a more efficient higher rate than humans


Did not Bill Gates recently suggest that these robots/automation that replace human workers be taxed and/or pay into SS? They may have to come up with some creative solutions for the greater good.


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## mathjak107

just pull ss disability off and add it on to welfare , which it is , and ss retirement and survivor benefits will be just fine .

the fraud and abuse in disability is insane .


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> actually yes . i hated the business after so many years and  i put down the sticks 35 years ago . never taught my kids , never brought it up . but  for decades i banged on everything in sight . well when i retired my wife said why don't you get a set of pads and play . at first i didn't want to but then i said what the heck .
> 
> well it was love at first sight . i have not put those sticks down in over a year . not only that , but  through facebook  the band from 35 years ago hooked up . we hit the studio last month and we are all chomping at the bit for the next session


That's fantastic Mathjak! My husband and I were watching one of my favorite videos..All By Myself (Live) by Darryl Hall and his band. My husband noted that the drummer always has the "last word".  LOL  Great video...that band was COOKIN' !! Anyway it's way past time for me finish and release more of my music.


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## mathjak107

i always watch live at darry'ls house


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## Don M.

When SS was first implemented, in about 1935, the average life expectancy was in the low 60's...and there were about 14 people paying into the system for every One drawing benefits.  Today, the average life expectancy has increased to around 75....a gain of 15 years....and there are less than 3 people paying in to the system for every One drawing benefits.  It doesn't take a math genius to see the basic problem SS faces.  Withholding has increased, over the years, but nowhere near enough to account for the increasing number of retirees.  One of the easiest solutions would be to remove the "Cap" on earnings, so those making over $125K a year would pay a percentage of their total earnings...but even that will not suffice as people continue to live longer.  

The government "benefit" programs are all headed for serious problems....Congress had to do some manipulation last year to keep SSDI solvent past 2018.  Medicare is going to be in trouble somewhere around 2022...and given the number of people who rely on Medicare, our government is going to have to do some major work to avoid that program going under.  How Medicare is handled will be a pretty good indicator of just what the future holds for SS.


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## dpwspringer

Don M. said:


> When SS was first implemented, in about 1935, the average life expectancy was in the low 60's...and there were about 14 people paying into the system for every One drawing benefits.  Today, the average life expectancy has increased to around 75....a gain of 15 years....and there are less than 3 people paying in to the system for every One drawing benefits.  It doesn't take a math genius to see the basic problem SS faces.  Withholding has increased, over the years, but nowhere near enough to account for the increasing number of retirees.  One of the easiest solutions would be to remove the "Cap" on earnings, so those making over $125K a year would pay a percentage of their total earnings...but even that will not suffice as people continue to live longer.
> 
> The government "benefit" programs are all headed for serious problems....Congress had to do some manipulation last year to keep SSDI solvent past 2018.  Medicare is going to be in trouble somewhere around 2022...and given the number of people who rely on Medicare, our government is going to have to do some major work to avoid that program going under.  How Medicare is handled will be a pretty good indicator of just what the future holds for SS.


I think what you aren't directly mentioning is things like factories moving offshore, out-sourcing of jobs to offshore workers, and mass immigration of under educated and unskilled workers that are willing to undercut livable wages contribute to the problem. The SS system depends on a well paid workforce that contribute to the pot of funds available. Government policies and how well they are enforced/executed has a huge impact on SS... not only on who gets what of the pie, but how the pie is built and maintained.


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## mathjak107

that really is not the case for life expectancy . that is from birth and not a very accurate measure .  

as michael kitces points out :

“life expectancy” can be a somewhat misleading term. Many people hear the term and think of it as a measure of how long they can “expect to live”. In reality, though, life expectancy is a measure of the _average_ time a person within some particular population is expected to live. While the average is meaningful in many respects, it may not always provide the best measure for setting expectations about the actual age someone is likely to reach. Because mortality rates aren’t constant across a lifespan and the distribution of ages at death are heavily skewed (i.e., more people die old than young), commonly cited life expectancy measures—particularly life expectancy at birth, which is most often cited in the media—may result in misleading expectations.
For instance, a child born in 2014 has a life expectancy (average age at death) of 79. However, the median age of death for the same child is 83, and the modal (most common) age at death is 89! Given the shape of the distribution of ages at death (negatively skewed), it’s simply a mathematical fact that the mean is going to be lower than the median or the mode


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## Don M.

One can argue to merits of Life Expectancy, vs Median Age, etc., but the fact remains that SS, in its present form, is not going to be the reliable source of income that it has been in the past.  There are some 80 million Seniors who derive much, if not all, of their monthly income from SS, and the present system is Not set up to handle Half that number in the long term.  There are many reasons for the shortfall in the Trust Fund...illegal immigration, outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, etc., all leading to a stagnant Middle Class, and the inability of many workers to contribute substantially to the trust fund.  Less money is coming in, and people ARE living longer, so basic math says that this program is headed for a brick wall.  Anyone younger than, say 50 years old, better be ramping up their individual savings and retirement plans, or they will be in for a rude awakening in another 15 years.


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## Knight

Median age, average age I think it comes down to if you haven't planned and Soc. Sec. is your only source of retirement income life in retirement is not going to be fun. This article explains the differance between "mean" & "median". Doesn't look to good to me, I can't imagine what a future cut of 23% will do to people with so little put away for their retirement.  

Here's how much the average family has saved for retirement at every age
 Kathleen Elkins Fri, Apr 7 8:28 AM PDT .

When it comes to retirement savings, how do you stack up? 
According to a report from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), the mean retirement savings of all working-age families, which the EPI defines as those between 32 and 61 years old, is $95,776.
But that number doesn't tell the whole story. Since so many families have zero savings and since super-savers can pull up the average, the median savings, or those at the 50th percentile, may be a better gauge. The median for all working-age families in the U.S. is just $5,000.
As the charts show, retirement preparedness varies by age. Not surprisingly, younger families have less stashed away. Here's a breakdown of the mean and median retirement savings of U.S. families at every age:

Mean retirement savings of families between 32 and 37: $31,644
Median retirement savings of families between 32 and 37: $480
Mean retirement savings of families between 38 and 43: $67,270
Median retirement savings of families between 38 and 43: $4,200
Mean retirement savings of families between 44 and 49: $81,347
Median retirement savings of families between 44 and 49: $6,200
Mean retirement savings of families between 50 and 55: $124,831
Median retirement savings of families between 50 and 55: $8,000
Mean retirement savings of families between 56 and 61: $163,577
Median retirement savings of families between 56 and 61: $17,000 
How big should your nest egg be?
The answer is highly personal, and specific dollar amounts can be arbitrary, but according to retirement-plan provider Fidelity Investments, a good rule of thumb is to have 10 times your final salary in savings  if you want to retire by age 67.
Fidelity also suggests a timeline to use in order to get to that magic number:
By 30: Have the equivalent of your salary saved
By 40: Have three times your salary saved
By 50: Have six times your salary saved
By 60: Have eight times your salary saved
By 67: Have 10 times your salary saved

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/heres-much-average-family-saved-152813382.html


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## Don M.

I am somewhat amazed at the number of Seniors who have little to show for a lifetime of work....and some even still making mortgage payments.  I guess they figured they would never get old.  The best thing the Government ever did for the working people is the 401k/IRA plans...I just wish those had been available when I first started working.  We had two daughters, and they were costly little rascals, so when they became adults, we started saving the thousands of dollars/year we were spending on them.  Many of our friends of that age took their extra "child" money, and moved to bigger houses, bought fancy cars, and took lavish vacations.  We maintained our lifestyle, maxed out the 401K, and put the "child" money to work, in conservative Mutual funds.  Now, if we suddenly decide to take some money and hit the casino, we're not flirting with the grocery money.  

There are any number of reasons why SS is headed for troubles.  Today, the Motley Fool released an article that probably explains SS better than most reports I've seen.

ttps://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/04/08/social-security-is-failing-because-the-program-is.aspx?yptr=yahoo


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## Aunt Bea

I agree with Don about the amount of savings people have, I think that money management, saving and investing, should be drummed into children's heads from the moment they pick up a coin and put it in their mouth for the first time, LOL!

The one and only reason that I have a few bucks now is because I signed up for payroll savings the day I started my first real job at age 20.  My savings were always skimmed off the top, I never really had to make a decision other than to increase the amount withheld each time I got a raise.  The 401K/IRA plans came later but the pattern was set during those early years.  Next came the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains on conservative mutual funds.  I was not a genius about saving or investing and I'm still not, the knowledge came to me just as slowly as the money accumulated.  It seemed that by the time I had saved a thousand dollars I had accumulated the knowledge on how to invest it, when that became ten thousand dollars the knowledge was there and so on.


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## mathjak107

Knight said:


> Median age, average age I think it comes down to if you haven't planned and Soc. Sec. is your only source of retirement income life in retirement is not going to be fun. This article explains the differance between "mean" & "median". Doesn't look to good to me, I can't imagine what a future cut of 23% will do to people with so little put away for their retirement.
> 
> Here's how much the average family has saved for retirement at every age
> Kathleen Elkins Fri, Apr 7 8:28 AM PDT .
> 
> When it comes to retirement savings, how do you stack up?
> According to a report from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), the mean retirement savings of all working-age families, which the EPI defines as those between 32 and 61 years old, is $95,776.
> But that number doesn't tell the whole story. Since so many families have zero savings and since super-savers can pull up the average, the median savings, or those at the 50th percentile, may be a better gauge. The median for all working-age families in the U.S. is just $5,000.
> As the charts show, retirement preparedness varies by age. Not surprisingly, younger families have less stashed away. Here's a breakdown of the mean and median retirement savings of U.S. families at every age:
> 
> Mean retirement savings of families between 32 and 37: $31,644
> Median retirement savings of families between 32 and 37: $480
> Mean retirement savings of families between 38 and 43: $67,270
> Median retirement savings of families between 38 and 43: $4,200
> Mean retirement savings of families between 44 and 49: $81,347
> Median retirement savings of families between 44 and 49: $6,200
> Mean retirement savings of families between 50 and 55: $124,831
> Median retirement savings of families between 50 and 55: $8,000
> Mean retirement savings of families between 56 and 61: $163,577
> Median retirement savings of families between 56 and 61: $17,000
> How big should your nest egg be?
> The answer is highly personal, and specific dollar amounts can be arbitrary, but according to retirement-plan provider Fidelity Investments, a good rule of thumb is to have 10 times your final salary in savings  if you want to retire by age 67.
> Fidelity also suggests a timeline to use in order to get to that magic number:
> By 30: Have the equivalent of your salary saved
> By 40: Have three times your salary saved
> By 50: Have six times your salary saved
> By 60: Have eight times your salary saved
> By 67: Have 10 times your salary saved
> 
> https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/heres-much-average-family-saved-152813382.html



for the most part these how much should you have at the various ages are way off base . we all have different  times in our lives that saving money is harder than others , different times the markets and our investments co-operate and different times we are able to take advantage of opportunity . i have rarely seen any of us on the same schedule .

it took me  50 years of life before i saw my first million  but only 13 years to triple it .  as the amount got larger the opportunity and deals i could take part in grew bigger and more exclusive .

others have different schedules as to how their wealth grew


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## Knight

mathjak107 said:


> for the most part these how much should you have at the various ages are way off base . we all have different  times in our lives that saving money is harder than others , different times the markets and our investments co-operate and different times we are able to take advantage of opportunity . i have rarely seen any of us on the same schedule .
> 
> it took me  50 years of life before i saw my first million  but only 13 years to triple it .  as the amount got larger the opportunity and deals i could take part in grew bigger and more exclusive .
> 
> others have different schedules as to how their wealth grew



I must have read that article wrong. I didn't read anything about what a person should have I read it as an explanation of the difference between "mean" and "median" .

There was this qualifier in the article.

"How big should your nest egg be?
 The answer is highly personal, and specific dollar amounts can be arbitrary," I'm pretty sure that is a quick way of saying 

Quote
" we all have different  times in our lives that saving money is harder than others , different times the markets and our investments co-operate and different times we are able to take advantage of opportunity"

I don't know where the article author got her facts and figures, but if the median retirement savings of families is between 56 and 61: $17,000 is true. Then There are going to be a whole lot of people hurting if that 23% cut does happen. 

I was fortunate to have the help of my wife to be comfortable now. I'm happy for you to have accumulated the amount that you have.


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> i always watch live at darry'ls house


I actually got hip to Live At Darryl's House after watching his video several time. Then of course YouTube offers up several suggestions for you. That reminds me, there's more of those sessions I have to check out.  He is one cool guy.


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## GeriGerry

Well, trump has to get his $54,000,000,000 from somewhere... I've always maxed out my 401 and started an ROTH IRA on my own. I always just assumed SS wouldn't be there anyway... Here in Pennsylvania there are other programs to help the less fortunate anyway.


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## OneEyedDiva

mathjak107 said:


> for the most part these how much should you have at the various ages are way off base . we all have different  times in our lives that saving money is harder than others , different times the markets and our investments co-operate and different times we are able to take advantage of opportunity . i have rarely seen any of us on the same schedule .
> 
> it took me  50 years of life before i saw my first million  but only 13 years to triple it .  as the amount got larger the opportunity and deals i could take part in grew bigger and more exclusive .
> 
> others have different schedules as to how their wealth grew


Congratulations on your impressive financial success!


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## mathjak107

Thanks


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## OneEyedDiva

boaterboi said:


> Fake news. SS is safe.


 I just saw your reply Boaterboi.  How can it be "fake news" if I saw it with my own eyes on the social security website?  I know you don't know me but I'm known as a straight shooter and person with integrity (on my other networking sites as well). I would not purposely mislead anyone about anything. If I had not seen about the cut with my own two eyes not once, but twice, on the SSA.gov website, I would have posted it as something speculative not fact. Now if they fix the issues and avoid the cut, then great. Just sayin.....


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## OneEyedDiva

Don M. said:


> When SS was first implemented, in about 1935, the average life expectancy was in the low 60's...and there were about 14 people paying into the system for every One drawing benefits.  Today, the average life expectancy has increased to around 75....a gain of 15 years....and there are less than 3 people paying in to the system for every One drawing benefits.  It doesn't take a math genius to see the basic problem SS faces.  Withholding has increased, over the years, but nowhere near enough to account for the increasing number of retirees.  One of the easiest solutions would be to remove the "Cap" on earnings, so those making over $125K a year would pay a percentage of their total earnings...but even that will not suffice as people continue to live longer.
> 
> The government "benefit" programs are all headed for serious problems....Congress had to do some manipulation last year to keep SSDI solvent past 2018.  Medicare is going to be in trouble somewhere around 2022...and given the number of people who rely on Medicare, our government is going to have to do some major work to avoid that program going under.  How Medicare is handled will be a pretty good indicator of just what the future holds for SS.


You are EXACTLY right Don M!


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