# The 4% Rule Use To Be THEE Rule But Now.....



## OneEyedDiva (Jan 26, 2022)

The efficacy of this long standing rule for withdrawing retirement funds for your portfolio is being questioned. I've read several articles about it over the last few years, below is the latest. 
https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/603831/the-4-rule-faces-new-problems-today
Here is an alternate method for retirement withdrawal...The Bucket method:
Bucket 1: Cash and liquid assets, for near term expenses of a year or more
Bucket 2:  For 5 or more years of living expenses and contains high yield fixed income & some dividend paying investments
Bucket 3:  Long term portion contains stocks and more volatile bond types.
Bucket maintenance may be required.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/840177/the-bucket-approach-to-retirement-allocation
I don't have a "strategy" because I don't need to make withdrawals from my retirement nest egg. Your thoughts?


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## dseag2 (Jan 26, 2022)

This is a great article.  Thanks for posting!  

"Experts" are all over the board on the 4% Rule.  Some say it is too high.  Some say it is artificially low.  I'm just trying as much as I can right now to live off the savings I accumulated before being forced to retire.  I was lucky enough to receive unemployment for 15 months and I started drawing Social Security at 63.  Now the savings is dwindling. 

I figure I have 6 more months before I have to start withdrawing funds from my investments.  I know I will eventually have to do it but I'm not looking forward to seeing my balance at that point.  The market is so erratic.  The thought that the Fed may raise interest rates in March spooked Wall Street, but if the rise in interest rates reduces inflation it may be a good thing.  We shall see. 

I try to invest as wisely as I can and hope I will have enough money to see me through my final years.  I'm not leaving the stock market.  The latest figures I've seen are that the S&P was up 13% in 2021, down 9% so far in 2022 but up 90% over the past 5 years.  It's a long-term proposition.


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## Aunt Bea (Jan 27, 2022)

IMO there is no set it and forget it method to manage a self-directed retirement.  Unfortunately, none of us will know how we did until we run out of money or die.

It depends a great deal on how accurate/honest you are about forecasting your expenses, your investment choices, and how heavily you rely on your investments for retirement income.

I would encourage people to begin retirement on 3% or less until they develop a good understanding of the market/economy cycle's impact on their portfolios.

If you simply draw a flat 4% of your portfolio every year you will never run out of money, but you may reach a point where the draw is not sufficient to meet your needs.

I try to keep roughly enough cash on hand to cover five years of expenses above and beyond those normally covered by my SS and pension income.  Basically looking as far down the road as I can to anticipate fluctuations in spending for things like cars, vacations, dental expenses, etc...

I look at the 4% draw, adjusted for inflation, on a three-year rolling average.  You draw a little less in good years and a little more in bad years.

After you are well into retirement you should be able to look at portfolio growth and draw up to 8% every few years without putting your future in jeopardy.

Go slow, be careful, and try not to get wet!  





I'll see you on the other side!


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## Victor (Jan 27, 2022)

4% seems low to me but it depends on the size of the retirement money and when you begin.  I think 6 or 7% is better for me.  My financial advisor does not use this rule. He uses the Monte Carlo system to predict


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## OneEyedDiva (Jan 27, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> This is a great article.  Thanks for posting!
> 
> "Experts" are all over the board on the 4% Rule.  Some say it is too high.  Some say it is artificially low.  I'm just trying as much as I can right now to live off the savings I accumulated before being forced to retire.  I was lucky enough to receive unemployment for 15 months and I started drawing Social Security at 63.  Now the savings is dwindling.
> 
> ...


I'm glad you find the article useful Dseag2. Yes, I saw those same stats on a World News Tonight report. It's best to look at long term results, not short term ones which can be downright scary and for some, cause panic selling (at a loss, of course). For people who need to access their investments *now* current and near future market volatility *is* more concerning. The hope that raising the interest rates will ultimately be a good thing is out there...but like you said..."we shall see". I hope your portfolio will see enough gains to last your lifetime my friend.


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## Liberty (Jan 27, 2022)

Well, no one likes to see "negative compounding" with respect to their hard earned money, but it is money and we are old so we may need what we need someday, or not.  Living frugally certainly helps.

Don't need a money manager to tell us that.  

Keeping many years in emergency funds and a good dividend growth ETF has been helpful in avoiding the negative compounding.  With the stock market you never know what will happen with the S & P or total market so diversification is best.  Of course in a crash, nothing except time can rectify that disaster.  What bothers most seniors is the fact we don't have that precious time on our sides...lol.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jan 27, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> IMO there is no set it and forget it method to manage a self-directed retirement.  Unfortunately, none of us will know how we did until we run out of money or die.
> 
> It depends a great deal on how accurate/honest you are about forecasting your expenses, your investment choices, and how heavily you rely on your investments for retirement income.
> 
> ...


Seems like you have everything well under control Aunt Bea. We are blessed to be getting pensions (and SS). You're right..."set it and forget it" is not a good tactic. The 4% method definitely calls for adjustments up or down according to the yearly circumstances.  Having a 5 year emergency fund is great!


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## Myquest55 (Jan 27, 2022)

We set up several annuities that will pay monthly - for life - whether there is money in there or not.  Several of them pay out 5%+  I'm happy with that.  We have them both as Qualified and Non-Qualified.  We'll probably tap into the Qualified (IRA) accounts first and let the regular ones simmer and, hopefully, continue to grow.  4 Years retired and we haven't touched them yet.


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## Aunt Bea (Jan 27, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Seems like you have everything well under control Aunt Bea. We are blessed to be getting pensions (and SS). You're right..."set it and forget it" is not a good tactic. The 4% method definitely calls for adjustments up or down according to the yearly circumstances.  Having a 5 year emergency fund is great!


The biggest wild card for all of us will be the cost of end of life care.


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## OneEyedDiva (Jan 27, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> The biggest wild card for all of us will be the cost of end of life care.


Yes! That's one of the reasons why I'm choosing to save/invest such a large chunk of my income. I couldn't get LTC insurance neither from AARP's insurer nor my state health benefits offering, because of pre-existing conditions.


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## Liberty (Jan 27, 2022)

Hey, just got contacted from our ex-business partner... ask if I wanted to invest in bitcoin, he knows a bank that's paying 35% interest.

Told him that sounded like a "pump 'n dump" ...what I really need is a good "pump 'n dump "FDIC insured bank paying a great CD rate!


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## dseag2 (Jan 27, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> The biggest wild card for all of us will be the cost of end of life care.


Absolutely.  My father tried to get LTC insurance for my mother when she was in her 50's but she had so many pre-existing conditions it was declined.  She lived to be 89 y/o, the last 4 of them in Assisted Living.  I calculated the total of the payments and they were almost exactly equal to the amount we received for the sale of her house, which was fully paid for.

I have also thought about LTC insurance but the premiums keep increasing, even if you have had it for years.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

we have not had an increase in our ny state partnership plan in 5 years .

many older plans were way under priced as the statistics from a generation ago were wrong about usage .

many insurers were so far off they pulled out of the market place.

all the insurers that were taking part in our state partnership plan pulled out . it seems the old stats were greatly flawed and usage of both facility's and home care were far far greater .

if you have a plan they are grand fathering you but no new plans are offered .


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Seems like you have everything well under control Aunt Bea. We are blessed to be getting pensions (and SS). You're right..."set it and forget it" is not a good tactic. The 4% method definitely calls for adjustments up or down according to the yearly circumstances.  Having a 5 year emergency fund is great!


the whole idea of a safe withdrawal rate is no yearly adjustments are needed .

it is designed to provide a safe , secure income stream in good and bad times .

the income stream has very high odds with at least 40% equities of not needing a lowering in bad times .

only the balance left  over varies.

out of the 121 30 year rolling retirements we have had to date only 6 needed to be adjusted downward slightly to 3.60% from 4% .

that is a 96% success rate .

90% of all those time frames left you with more than you started with 30 years later with a 60/40 or 50/50 portfolio.

we have had no worse outcomes since 1966 .....


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Victor said:


> 4% seems low to me but it depends on the size of the retirement money and when you begin.  I think 6 or 7% is better for me.  My financial advisor does not use this rule. He uses the Monte Carlo system to predict


6-7% is what we would use , if it wasnt for the fact safe withdrawal rates are based on the worst outcomes we have had .

so figuring 6 to 7% in the early years is as risky as you can get .

the worst years for a retiree were those who retired in 1907 , 1929 , 1937, 1965 and 1966 .

taking 6-7% is like building a house , not to the worst storms your area ever saw but to the average storm .

you can see that may not be a good idea .


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> IMO there is no set it and forget it method to manage a self-directed retirement.  Unfortunately, none of us will know how we did until we run out of money or die.
> 
> It depends a great deal on how accurate/honest you are about forecasting your expenses, your investment choices, and how heavily you rely on your investments for retirement income.
> 
> ...


actually we do know how we are doing .

thanks to research by micael kitces , we now know all we need to see is a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold .

of course you may end 30 years with a buck so we do want more than that , but that really is not much .

everyone of those failures happened because the first 15 years fell below 2%  inflation adjusted .

even the best bull markets couldnt save them because of all the excess spending that had to be done .

so if 5 years in you are averaging less a red flag should go up .  8 years in i would consider a cut in draw sensible


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

One thing I want to add is that this idea of cash  buffers being  a safety net has really no merit .

one can simply rebalance a 60/40  , 50/50 or 40/60 and get all the cash they need anytime they need it …

even 100% equities with no cash and no bonds has a 95% success rate almost the same as 60/40 .

the reason is the bigger up years without the drag of cash and bonds compensates in the down years .

so having these cash buckets is mentally comforting , but financially really adding nothing extra

https://www.kitces.com/blog/researc...s-dont-work-unless-youre-a-good-market-timer/


https://www.kitces.com/blog/are-retirement-bucket-strategies-an-asset-allocation-mirage/


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## ronaldj (Feb 6, 2022)

according to "experts" we don't have enough to retire. Only been retired for almost ten yeas, it's not having what you want it's wanting what you have.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

ronaldj said:


> according to "experts" we don't have enough to retire. Only been retired for almost ten yeas, it's not having what you want it's wanting what you have.


No such thing as a number , so they ain’t experts .

how much do I need to retire is like asking how long is a rope .

we all see what we have when the pay checks stop and we make it work .

for many it means relocating or living golden girl style ….

so if  anyone shoots you some magic numbers , they have no clue how retirement planning works…avoid their advice like the plague

click bail articles love to have articles like that


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> The efficacy of this long standing rule for withdrawing retirement funds for your portfolio is being questioned. I've read several articles about it over the last few years, below is the latest.
> https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/603831/the-4-rule-faces-new-problems-today
> Here is an alternate method for retirement withdrawal...The Bucket method:
> Bucket 1: Cash and liquid assets, for near term expenses of a year or more
> ...


We usually fill our checking account once a year for spending ….we keep a year in reserve , even though cash buckets do nothing ..it is just my brain likes  to compartmentalize things

the 4% swr is really only good in my opinion as a guide for the first year .

following it can leave you with way to much money left over unused and enjoyed most of the time so a system of raises is needed besides inflation adjusting .

we use bob clyatt 95/5 method .

each year we take 4% of the actual balance to set our goal posts .

in a down year we simply take the higher of 4% of the balance or 5% less then the year before .

that’s it , it is simple , and it rewards us in up years without hitting you to hard in down years .

firecalc actually has a selection tab for using it instead of the “ constant dollar “ method , which is what the 4% swr actually is called ….it tries to preserve spending by inflation adjusting


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## Alligatorob (Feb 6, 2022)

Thanks, this is a good article and timely for me.  I am going to be retired enough by the end of the year that I will need to start drawing from my savings.  I turn 70 in September, that is my target to start social security, and I am now winding my business down.  I should be done working in a few months.

I think the 4% rule is good guidance, but we will need to watch how it goes and make adjustments along the way.


ronaldj said:


> it's not having what you want it's wanting what you have.


Great advice!  Just adjust your lifestyle to what you have.  Its what I plan to do, will have to see how it works out.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Thanks, this is a good article and timely for me.  I am going to be retired enough by the end of the year that I will need to start drawing from my savings.  I turn 70 in September, that is my target to start social security, and I am now winding my business down.  I should be done working in a few months.
> 
> I think the 4% rule is good guidance, but we will need to watch how it goes and make adjustments along the way.
> 
> Great advice!  Just adjust your lifestyle to what you have.  Its what I plan to do, will have to see how it works out.


When the pay checks stop it doesn’t matter what your expenses were ..all you have is what you actually have to work with and back in to a lifestyle that fits what you have


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Since I spent a lot of time learning from the brightest minds on the subject when it comes to setting those initial goal posts  I thought I would give you one example of the entire process recommended by the likes of kitces , blanchette , Bernstein, milevsky


so what I would do is add up all my non discretionary spending ..that is all the things you currently have no leeway in .

plus I would add in the things that you wouldn’t give up unless push came to shove …as an example for us it’s my studio time for my drumming , our gym , etc .

let’s say that is 50k ….I would double that for all the discretionary spending .

that give a comfortable margin if you need to make cuts  If things go worse than planned .

it can be all well and good you are living below your means but if the bulk of that budget is non discretionary you may have an issue cutting back ..

so let’s say you would like to see if you can do 100k .

subtract out any income streams like ss , pension ,annuity , rental income , alimony ,etc .

so say that is  60k ..

that means 40k has to come from your savings and investments .

now we will use firecalc to stress test the allocation and investments you will use to see how it would have met goal in the past .

playing in firecalc we see that 1 million in  at least a 40/60 portfolio can give a high rate of Success ..over 90% is considered acceptable.

but suppose you want to not use equities .

well changing the tab in firecalc to fixed income only shows trying to draw 4% failed so many times it is considered unsafe so you either need 1.25 million or you will need to reduce the draw to 3% .

that means you need to go back and work on that budget and start cutting

https://firecalc.com/


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Here is an example of firecalc .

1 million at a 4% draw , 30 year retirement , using first 50/50 and then just fixed income

under  90% success rate means it already failed to many times to be considered safe

50/50

FIRECalc Results​Your spending in every year after the first year will be adjusted for inflation, so the spending power is preserved.



FIRECalc looked at the 121 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 121 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-223,952 to $4,145,063, with an average at the end of $1,156,780. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 6 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.0%.


FIXED INCOME ONLY

FIRECalc Results​Your spending in every year after the first year will be adjusted for inflation, so the spending power is preserved.



FIRECalc looked at the 121 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 121 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-517,560 to $2,349,575, with an average at the end of $191,362. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 64 cycles failed, for a success rate of 47.1%.

just for fun here is 100% equities and no cash or bonds …despite the myths about high equity levels for retirees it performed almost as well as 50/50 and acually did better over longer retirement periods then 30 years .

100% equities , no cash or bonds , just spending right from equities in good and bad times 
FIRECalc Results​Your spending in every year after the first year will be adjusted for inflation, so the spending power is preserved.



FIRECalc looked at the 121 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 121 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-931,017 to $8,509,297, with an average at the end of $2,751,225. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 8 cycles failed, for a success rate of 93.4%.


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## Don M. (Feb 6, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> I have also thought about LTC insurance but the premiums keep increasing, even if you have had it for years.



LTC insurance is Very expensive, unless you initiate such a policy at a fairly early age.  When I saw my parents beginning to decline, years ago, and taking out a home equity loan to help pay for "in home" care, we took out a LTC policy.  Over the past 30 years, or so, we have paid out quite a bit in premiums, and I hope that is money down the drain, and we never need it.  However, should we become disabled, there is enough built up in that policy to give us several years in a high quality Senior facility....rather than being shuffled off to some minimal State facility.  

Retirement funding, and things like LTC are things that people Must take into consideration at a fairly early age, if they want to avoid issues in their later years.  

Looking back, I just wish that 401K's/IRA's had been available when I first started working, and that I has been wise enough to get into such plans when I was in my 20's and 30's.  IMO, that, and SS, are about the Only things our government has done to make retirement more affordable.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Don M. said:


> LTC insurance is Very expensive, unless you initiate such a policy at a fairly early age.  When I saw my parents beginning to decline, years ago, and taking out a home equity loan to help pay for "in home" care, we took out a LTC policy.  Over the past 30 years, or so, we have paid out quite a bit in premiums, and I hope that is money down the drain, and we never need it.  However, should we become disabled, there is enough built up in that policy to give us several years in a high quality Senior facility....rather than being shuffled off to some minimal State facility.
> 
> Retirement funding, and things like LTC are things that people Must take into consideration at a fairly early age, if they want to avoid issues in their later years.
> 
> Looking back, I just wish that 401K's/IRA's had been available when I first started working, and that I has been wise enough to get into such plans when I was in my 20's and 30's.  IMO, that, and SS, are about the Only things our government has done to make retirement more affordable.


Unless you are surcharged later on for health issues , taking it early or later will be very close in price in the sense most are priced so when you get to the sweet spot for care you paid in about a years care  in future dollars.
If you start earlier you pay in less for longer .

i had a blood test a while ago come back diabetic ..even though that wasn’t the case when I applied they saw it in the data base  and I pay an extra 900 a year


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

Our partnership plan is like gold ….it protects all assets after the 3 years insurance is up …they created a special version of medicaid that will simply take over paying the bills .

there is no spend down , no look back , no cap on the stay at home spouses income .

all Assets are never touched.

it was a fabulous deal if you took advantage of it , although not cheap at all .

now the website says 


*IMPORTANT: As of January 1, 2021, there are no insurance companies currently offering new policy purchases of Partnership qualified products in New York State.  This means that there are no new Partnership policies available for purchase at this time.  This does not affect current, active insureds who are Partnership qualified.  *


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## StarSong (Feb 6, 2022)

IMHO, retirement fund withdrawal rules of thumb should factor in the age when one begins the process. Presuming a life span of 95, the picture will look a lot different if one starts tapping funds at age 60 rather than 70.  

Interesting that the article doesn't even mention this...


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 6, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> Absolutely.  My father tried to get LTC insurance for my mother when she was in her 50's but she had so many pre-existing conditions it was declined.  She lived to be 89 y/o, the last 4 of them in Assisted Living.  I calculated the total of the payments and they were almost exactly equal to the amount we received for the sale of her house, which was fully paid for.
> 
> I have also thought about LTC insurance but the premiums keep increasing, even if you have had it for years.


In a way, I was glad not to be eligible for LTC insurance. I read up on it and some of it seemed kind of sketchy. Your policy will be good IF the insurance company doesn't go out of business (naturally it would be wise to choose one of the most stable, well known companies). Premiums could rise significantly over time, there were some exclusions, etc., etc. Assisted living costs a ton. Good thing your mom has the assets to pay for it, may she R.I.P.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 6, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> One thing I want to add is that this idea of cash  buffers being  a safety net has really no merit .
> 
> one can simply rebalance a 60/40  , 50/50 or 40/60 and get all the cash they need anytime they need it …
> 
> ...


Because Muslims don't invest in interest bearing vehicles, I have no bonds in my portfolio, not even within my mutual funds, so I do rely on cash as a buffer. Learned that lesson years ago when I had more in investments and a lot less in an emergency fund. I had to sell some of the shares of what wound up growing substantially to generate the thousands I needed. It's something I regret to this day because that investment increased by $44 a share (now) and $47 a share at it's 52 week high.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

StarSong said:


> IMHO, retirement fund withdrawal rules of thumb should factor in the age when one begins the process. Presuming a life span of 95, the picture will look a lot different if one starts tapping funds at age 60 rather than 70.
> 
> Interesting that the article doesn't even mention this...



simple answers to complex questions are going   are going to be the wrong answers . so the article is really not correct 

not age but years in retirement is always part of the equation . . it is just 30 years is generally used  since it applys to the most popular group .

30 years coupled with the fact most wont live 30 years in retirement  , ends up being a 100% success rate with at least 35-40% equities .

here is the chart extending things out longer


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Because Muslims don't invest in interest bearing vehicles, I have no bonds in my portfolio, not even within my mutual funds, so I do rely on cash as a buffer. Learned that lesson years ago when I had more in investments and a lot less in an emergency fund. I had to sell some of the shares of what wound up growing substantially to generate the thousands I needed. It's something I regret to this day because that investment increased by $44 a share (now) and $47 a share at it's 52 week high.


what about a spia annuity ?  that is inurance . it is like buying a pension .


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## JimBob1952 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Because Muslims don't invest in interest bearing vehicles, I have no bonds in my portfolio, not even within my mutual funds, so I do rely on cash as a buffer. Learned that lesson years ago when I had more in investments and a lot less in an emergency fund. I had to sell some of the shares of what wound up growing substantially to generate the thousands I needed. It's something I regret to this day because that investment increased by $44 a share (now) and $47 a share at it's 52 week high.


Diva, this is a serious question, no disrespect intended.  I understand the Muslim position on interest.  Is it the same for dividends?


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## HoneyNut (Feb 6, 2022)

I sure appreciate the info in these types of threads.  I feel like I am not really capable to do my own financial management but I also feel like I can't afford to pay anyone to do it.  The free financial advisor from Fidelity has not been very useful (33% helpful, 33% not helpful, 33% UNhelpful).

I was trying a calculator on the internet, that had options to analyze different scenarios, and one of them was a U-shape in the spending, that is, spend more the first years of retirement (60s) when still able to travel, spend the least in the 70s when not traveling but not yet having extra health costs, then spend more the last years for assistance and health costs.   It seemed like a better analysis than just same income every year.

I'm so freaking out about it all now that my retirement is in less than a month.  When I first started planning a few years ago I expected to spend the first 5 years of retirement in my house, and putter around the property.  But now that I am much less frisky already and I fear I might have limited time to have the ability to travel, I am thinking to sell the house and use a big chunk of the money for traveling.

I've always thought that worst case I could live abroad on my Social Security amount, but that sounds kind of scary, I'm not sure I could make the leap.   Perhaps in a few years I could make a few trips to places like Panama and Portugal and see what it might be like to live there.  I wish I had a spouse or best friend to spend retirement with, it is paralyzingly scary to actually do the things I want myself to do.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

JimBob1952 said:


> Diva, this is a serious question, no disrespect intended.  I understand the Muslim position on interest.  Is it the same for dividends?


I will guess and say no since dividends are a return of capital and not interest . Whatever your investment is worth is reduced by the payout by the same amount ….it starts out being acted on by markets as if you had a lower amount invested if you dont reinvest , no different then a fund distribution
but dividends come from stocks and stocks are not the same as fixed income ….fixed income belongs on one side of the portfolio and stocks regardless if they pay a dividend are on the other .

one does not replace the other normally


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 6, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> what about a spia annuity ?  that is inurance


Nope. It's considered like interest. Although the progressive view, knowing that many Muslims live in the west, is that up to 5% is allowed but it's preferable that we stay away from it. Muslims are not to charge interest either.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

HoneyNut said:


> I sure appreciate the info in these types of threads.  I feel like I am not really capable to do my own financial management but I also feel like I can't afford to pay anyone to do it.  The free financial advisor from Fidelity has not been very useful (33% helpful, 33% not helpful, 33% UNhelpful).
> 
> I was trying a calculator on the internet, that had options to analyze different scenarios, and one of them was a U-shape in the spending, that is, spend more the first years of retirement (60s) when still able to travel, spend the least in the 70s when not traveling but not yet having extra health costs, then spend more the last years for assistance and health costs.   It seemed like a better analysis than just same income every year.
> 
> ...


The smile shaped spending pattern comes from research by Ty BERKE  and also from the SUN LIFE study .

that showed We tend to spend in a smile shape WHEN WE HAVE DISCRETIONARY MONEY .

we spend more in the early years  going and doing in our go go years …then spending falls off a cliff in our slow go years , then it ramps up again in the no go years …..that which we no longer do , go or buy tends to offset  what we do continue to spend on that went up .

the end result is seniors need a lot less inflation adjusting then they think over time .

the problem is , that many of us may slow spending on ourselves but ramp up spending on the kids and grandkids …I know we do


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Nope. It's considered like interest. Although the progressive view, knowing that many Muslims live in the west, is that up to 5% is allowed but it's preferable that we stay away from it. Muslims are not to charge interest either.


Why ?  Dividends don’t have to even come from profits …they are an amount refunded to you voted on by a board whether they made money or not …as you know a dividend payment is a wash , so I am not sure why it is looked at like interest .

if a mutual fund gave you a distribution it is the same exact process.


how would one even know what portion of a dividend is from interest the stock got itself ?


i can see not owning  bank stocks because they make money off interest . But companies usually make money off their products.

so I don’t quite follow the logic as it applies to stocks other than stocks that make money loaning it out


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 6, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Why ?  Dividends don’t have to even come from profits …they are an amount refunded to you voted on by a board whether they made money or not …as you know a dividend payment is a wash , so I am not sure why it is looked at like interest .
> 
> if a mutual fund gave you a distribution it is the same exact process.
> 
> how would one even know what portion of a dividend is from interest the stock got itself ?


We can get dividends and capital gains, they are from different sources than interest.  I had this conversation with someone at the credit union years ago. They were calling what was actually interest..dividends. There is a difference. I have an Islamic book on finance that explains the difference and the reasoning. When I put my hands on it, I'll either post a screenshot or quote the text. @JimBob1952


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> We can get dividends and capital gains, they are from different sources than interest.  I had this conversation with someone at the credit union years ago. They were calling what was actually interest..dividends. There is a difference. I have an Islamic book on finance that explains the difference and the reasoning. When I put my hands on it, I'll either post a screenshot or quote the text.


That makes sense ….interest that Is being called dividends I can see being a no no …

interest on bond funds is usually called dividends as opposed to interest.

a balanced fund would also have interest disguised as a dividend payment


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## StarSong (Feb 6, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> simple answers to complex questions are going   are going to be the wrong answers . so the article is really not correct
> 
> not age but years in retirement is always part of the equation . . it is just 30 years is generally used  since it applys to the most popular group .
> 
> ...


Maybe I'm doing the math wrong, but let's look at the risk-free option of 0% stocks, taking 4% for 25 years.  Even assuming 0% interest rates in gov't insured passbook accounts, a 4% draw would have a 100% success rate, not 77%.  (4% X 25 years = 100%)      

While not completely out of the stock market, my risk tolerance is a whole lot lower than during earlier periods of my life.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Maybe I'm doing the math wrong, but let's look at the risk-free option of 0% stocks, taking 4% for 25 years.  Even assuming 0% interest rates in gov't insured passbook accounts, a 4% draw would have a 100% success rate, not 77%.  (4% X 25 years = 100%)
> 
> While not completely out of the stock market, my risk tolerance is a whole lot lower than during earlier periods of my life.


Because inflation will eat you alive …your draw buys less and less each year .

those who retired in 1965 or 1966 were destroyed by inflation as their yearly draws tripled to pay the same bills.

they went broke way before they ran out of time without big pay cuts in draw .

plus not every expense fits in that years budget … cars, roof , ac replacement , even dental can make mince meat out of a budget.

3% inflation alone would drive your income down to half or less.

could you take a 25% to 50% cut in pay ? Well that is what inflation would do to you via your calculation.

Compared to a 50/50 portfolio ending with more than you even started with 90% of the 121 rolling 30 year cycles we had …as well as a 67% of the time you ended with more than 2x what you started with ….50% of the time 3x what you started with 

which is the real dangerous situation?


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

In the years after 1965, the perfect storm of retirement killing conditions took place.

Inflation grew rapidly over the following decade, exceeding 10% in several years in the 1970’s and averaging 6% a year from 1965 to 1985.

Interest rates rose rapidly, from ~4% in 1965 to ~8% in 1970, up to 15% in 1982, causing bonds prices to plummet.  

The combo of fast rising high inflation and rising interest rates destroyed bonds.


Stocks also performed horribly. Adjusted for inflation, the stock market didn’t rise above its 1965 value until 1992, 27 years later.

Dividends moved sideways over 2 decades

The most insidious portfolio killer was inflation. 

Retirees were pulling out way more dollars to live then they ever imagined .

By the time. The smoke cleared the fact the greatest bull market in history was in their time frame did not help as they already spent down to far for markets to help

Few even gave it a thought prior since inflation was low and not even on the radar


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## JimBob1952 (Feb 6, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> We can get dividends and capital gains, they are from different sources than interest.  I had this conversation with someone at the credit union years ago. They were calling what was actually interest..dividends. There is a difference. I have an Islamic book on finance that explains the difference and the reasoning. When I put my hands on it, I'll either post a screenshot or quote the text. @JimBob1952


Thank you Diva!


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## StarSong (Feb 6, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Because inflation will eat you alive …your draw buys less and less each year .
> 
> those who retired in 1965 or 1966 were destroyed by inflation as their yearly draws tripled to pay the same bills.
> 
> ...


Thank you for clearing that up.  I understand now.  Was not figuring in the ravages of inflation.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 6, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Thank you for clearing that up.  I understand now.  Was not figuring in the ravages of inflation.


Typically you want to at least use a portfolio that will give you 3 to 6% OVER INFLATION …

there are many conservative portfolios ranging from 25-40% equities that have a good history of doing that.

wellesly is perfect for the job as well


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## mathjak107 (Feb 7, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> The efficacy of this long standing rule for withdrawing retirement funds for your portfolio is being questioned. I've read several articles about it over the last few years, below is the latest.
> https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/retirement-planning/603831/the-4-rule-faces-new-problems-today
> Here is an alternate method for retirement withdrawal...The Bucket method:
> Bucket 1: Cash and liquid assets, for near term expenses of a year or more
> ...


if   one   is not creating their own PERPETUAL  income off their pile of money , then they dont need a bucket system.

but in my opinion, scrimping and saving over a life time  , only to not to enjoy that money as part of ones budget and lifestyle is an inefficient use of what one worked so hard to accumulate .

personally i would never have that money my portfolio can generate not part of our yearly budget .

those who do choose to let the money just sit and spend little of it can stuff it in a matteress for all it counts .

if it is legacy  money  it can be 100% equities .


so money that has no defined  use , needs no defined investment plan


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 7, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Maybe I'm doing the math wrong, but let's look at the risk-free option of 0% stocks, taking 4% for 25 years.  Even assuming 0% interest rates in gov't insured passbook accounts, a 4% draw would have a 100% success rate, not 77%.  (4% X 25 years = 100%)
> 
> While not completely out of the stock market, my risk tolerance is a whole lot lower than during earlier periods of my life.


This is from Hugh Chou's Retirement Payout calculator (located in drop down menu under the Retirement heading)
https://www.hughcalc.org/savings.cgi
The figures used, except for the interest rate, are there by default and can be changed to fit an individual's scenarios. I had to use 1% interest rate because it doesn't allow 0% interest to be entered. But just as an example, I kept the defaults, except the interest rate (default is 5.5%).
"For a retirement account of *$ 300,000* at a interest rate of *1 %* with an inflation rate of *3.5 %* a year
Your Initial Monthly Payout : $ 743.98  Over 25 Years"​Piggy backing off @mathjak107's point: Using my inflation calculation app which only allows inputs up to 2015, you would have needed $1,358.39 in 2015 to buy what $743.98 would have bought in 1990 due to inflation during that period.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 8, 2022)

many people use these simple reverse amortization calculators where you put in some return and it tells you how long the moneywill last .

they couldn’t be more wrong because sequence risk is the biggest factor , not the return .

you can have a difference of 15 years between the best and worst sequences in a30 year retirement with the same average return


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 8, 2022)

IMO the biggest risk in all of this is our own bad behavior.

I've known several people that were not realistic about forecasting expenses, separating needs from wants, and balancing their fixed costs in retirement against their income.

Too many people keep nibbling away at their investments and promising themselves that they'll do better next year or YOLO  until a couple of bad years cause them to start chasing higher yields and the whole thing goes into a downward spiral.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 8, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> IMO the biggest risk in all of this is our own bad behavior.
> 
> I've known several people that were not realistic about forecasting expenses, separating needs from wants, and balancing their fixed costs in retirement against their income.
> 
> Too many people keep nibbling away at their investments and promising themselves that they'll do better next year or YOLO  until a couple of bad years cause them to start chasing higher yields and the whole thing goes into a downward spiral.


Bad investor behavior or poor spending habits is common all through life..

it is funny because we have all these rules and guides for investing but very little for spending .

all you hear is a useless unactionable  mantra like live below your means , like that is a plan …

how much is living below one’s means ?  A buck certainly qualifies ……

the real deal is you need a spending plan that breaks out discretionary and non discretionary spending …. It is all well and good you spend less then you take in but if push comes to shove  and you have to cut back , you can’t when there is little discretionary spending in the budget or a savings rate in the budget .


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## Liberty (Feb 8, 2022)

Learned some secrets about the things people "think" they need to spend money on - like being over insured and the things they don't give any thought to.  Its the day to day attitude of "I don't care, I'm retired" or the over doing it with penny pinching - that creates no joy in living to actually delude yourself into thinking you are going to take it with you.  The happy medium is a rare commodity, like common sense.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 8, 2022)

Here is the fidelity spending plan

It leaves 30% for non discretionary spending and includes a savings aspect


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## mathjak107 (Feb 8, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Learned some secrets about the things people "think" they need to spend money on - like being over insured and the things they don't give any thought to.  Its the day to day attitude of "I don't care, I'm retired" or the over doing it with penny pinching - that creates no joy in living to actually delude yourself into thinking you are going to take it with you.  The happy medium is a rare commodity, like common sense.


Many people sweat the small stuff …

as kitces said

"The inspiration for today's blog post comes from yet another article I read this morning - which out of kindness, I will not name - that advocates a wide array of spending tips to manage your finances. Eat at home more often; skip the morning Starbucks; bring a shopping list to the grocery store so that you do less impulse buying; clip those coupons; rent movies instead of going out. The list went on and on.

Yet as I looked at the list, I couldn't help but think... really? The key to my financial future is clipping $0.50 coupons for my morning cereal and making sure that I don't impulse buy any snacks in the checkout line? Yes, I realize that spending an extra $4/day x 5 days/week x 50 weeks/year means you could be spending $1,000 at Starbucks, which is no trivial amount. But overall, most of this seems like small potatoes.

Instead of doing so much to sweat this small stuff, I wish that we could do a better job focusing on what really matters - where we live, and what we drive. Because the reality is that for most people, our dominating expenses are actually not all this little stuff; it's our cost for shelter and transportation."


https://www.kitces.com/blog/worried...t-really-matters-and-its-not-the-small-stuff/


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## StarSong (Feb 8, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Many people sweat the small stuff …
> 
> as kitces said
> 
> ...


A wise friend a generation above me never earned a lot of money but he accumulated plenty.  He used to tell me, "if you watch your pennies your dollars will take care of themselves."  So much truth in that statement.    

In my experience, people who keep an eye on their small daily expenses are unlikely to splurge excessively on homes and automobiles. 

Financial undoing can come from the steady drip-drip-drip of daily Starbucks habits, restaurant meals, and all manner of impulse buys. Or from overly expensive transportation and shelter. Usually both. People who are conservative in one area tend to be so across the board. Likewise, spendthrifts show little financial discipline in virtually all arenas.


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 8, 2022)

StarSong said:


> A wise friend a generation above me never earned a lot of money but he accumulated plenty.  He used to tell me, "if you watch your pennies your dollars will take care of themselves."  So much truth in that statement.
> 
> In my experience, people who keep an eye on their small daily expenses are unlikely to splurge excessively on homes and automobiles.
> 
> Financial undoing can come from the steady drip-drip-drip of daily Starbucks habits, restaurant meals, and all manner of impulse buys. Or from overly expensive transportation and shelter. Usually both. People who are conservative in one area tend to be so across the board. Likewise, spendthrifts show little financial discipline in virtually all arenas.


I agree.

It has also been my observation that people who accumulate wealth slowly are better able to manage it than people who receive an inheritance or windfall.

_"What comes easy won't last long, and what lasts long won't always come easy." _- Unknown


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## mathjak107 (Feb 8, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> I agree.
> 
> It has also been my observation that people who accumulate wealth slowly are better able to manage it than people who receive an inheritance or windfall.
> 
> _"What comes easy won't last long, and what lasts long won't always come easy." _- Unknown


watch the dollars instead of the pennies for bigger results.

where we live and what we drive are the biggest places a difference can be had


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## StarSong (Feb 8, 2022)

Perhaps the best investment DH & I ever made was our home.  Over the years our monthly mortgage and interest would have roughly equaled what we would have paid in rent, particularly considering that since paying off the mortgage 7 years ago we've only paying taxes, insurance and upkeep.  

It's a mighty nice nest egg to be sitting on. With escalating RE values it's currently worth more than seven times what we paid for it 35 years ago. Should DH & I decide to liquidate or downsize, the first $500,000 of profit will be tax free. Not too shabby a deal, if you ask me.

My in-laws and parents all died receiving slightly more monthly income from SS, investments (and in one case a small reverse mortgage) than they needed. Although they left some money and investments, the lion's share of the inheritances their children received came from the sale of their homes which were held in trusts (so no taxes).

@Aunt Bea, none of the siblings on either side has squandered these inheritances. Both sets of parents were financially conservative and instilled those values in their children. We have shared some of that inheritance with our own children who are likewise using it wisely.

4%, 3%, whatever. If I add even 50% of our home's value to our investment bucket we'd be on easy street for the rest of our lives.


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## StarSong (Feb 8, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> watch the dollars instead of the pennies for bigger results


The point is to have that mindset across the board.  Not suggesting cheapskate living, but rather being prudent and paying attention.  

He was a generous man, but not a foolish one. He and his wife lived well but not wastefully.


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 8, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Perhaps the best investment DH & I ever made was our home.  Over the years our monthly mortgage and interest would have roughly equaled what we would have paid in rent, particularly considering that since paying off the mortgage 7 years ago we've only paying taxes, insurance and upkeep.
> 
> It's a mighty nice nest egg to be sitting on. With escalating RE values it's currently worth more than seven times what we paid for it 35 years ago. Should DH & I decide to liquidate or downsize, the first $500,000 of profit will be tax free. Not too shabby a deal, if you ask me.
> 
> ...


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## mathjak107 (Feb 9, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> View attachment 207534


shows how different every ones outcomes can be ... best thing we did is not buy a house .

instead, we rented and bought a share in a manhattan real estate partnership ... had we bought another house instead we would not have been able to take advantage of a once in a lifetime investment opportunity since the money would have been tied up in the house .

we sold off  the business  and can buy many  homes like had with what we made .

today that money not only pays the rent but all our expenses for the year and is still growing itself despite the 6 figures a year we spend from it .

we did buy a 2nd home in the poconos but sold that too a decade ago .

we have no desire to own anything as of now .


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 9, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> shows how different every ones outcomes can be ... best thing we did is not buy a house .
> 
> instead, we rented and bought a share in a manhattan real estate partnership ... had we bought another house instead we would not have been able to take advantage of a once in a lifetime investment opportunity since the money would have been tied up in the house .
> 
> ...


I never made money owning real estate, and I prefer to rent, but it has been a good move for many people.

The beauty for many is a small down payment can harness the potential increase in value of the entire home while providing a comfortable place to live.  The downside is that many people are reluctant to cash out in retirement.

The important thing is to start saving/investing a portion of your income at an early age so time can do most of the heavy lifting.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 9, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> I never made money owning real estate, and I prefer to rent, but it has been a good move for many people.
> 
> The beauty for many is a small down payment can harness the potential increase in value of the entire home while providing a comfortable place to live.  The downside is that many people are reluctant to cash out in retirement.
> 
> The important thing is to start saving/investing a portion of your income at an early age so time can do most of the heavy lifting.


Well the problem with a house is you really can’t take advantage of the value while consuming it yourself as a place you live in .

in fact the only way you can access that value is by using the house as collateral and taking costly loans as a home is a one way funnel .even a reverse mortgage is a costly loan.

so selling it is really the only way you can gain access to your own money at which time it no longer is a place you live .

i can take an asset based loan too using other assets so a loan is a loan…it isnt your money you are accessing.


you have those who say you can’t live in a stock , but by the same token you can’t spend the hall closet at the supermarket either


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## Liberty (Feb 9, 2022)

Hub is a project start up engineer...he built Anheuser-Busch breweries and wanted to build a house - we never had a mortgage on this big and I do mean big joint.  We love living here, its part of us. We and my mother loved land and nature so that's how we wound up with 12 acres.  The house is valuable, of course,  but trust me, the land is where the real bucks are.  

We've owned land for investment and the most money to be made is from undeveloped to developed land.  The fire dept where hub is the fire commissioner just purchased 2 pieces of land for new buildings.  We're talking many millions here and its rural land.  Pick a growing place  on or near a main road and just invest in land, my son.  LOL!


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## StarSong (Feb 9, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Well the problem with a house is you really can’t take advantage of the value while consuming it yourself as a place you live in .
> 
> in fact the only way you can access that value is by using the house as collateral and taking costly loans as a home is a one way funnel .even a reverse mortgage is a costly loan.
> 
> ...


You misunderstood the intent of my post, but that's ok.  Many times on these threads you've mentioned your aversion to buying a primary residence - and I'm sincerely glad that you're happy with that decision.  The peculiarities of stringent NY rent control laws work strongly in your favor, but those kinds of laws are rarities in most areas of the country.                      

Anecdotally, my friends and family members who've paid off their their primary residences have found that route to be an emotional comfort and financial godsend during retirement years. Each of us chooses the path that makes us comfortable.

Do you remember the dotcom crazy stock market years when "investment specialists" frequently cold called in hopes of gaining new clients? I happened to be at my mother's house when she fielded one of those calls. The guy started to talk to her about how much money she could make by investing with him. Mom replied, "No thank you. I have enough money and don't need more." The caller was stunned at her lack of greed and continued to try to talk her into investing with his brokerage firm. She repeated that she really didn't need more money, politely wished him a good day and ended the call.

It was a good lesson for me. Mom, in her mid-70s at that point, was content with what she had and had no need or desire to chase more. We talked about about how the more we focus on money, the more money focused we become. 

p.s.  She lived to 92 and never came close to running out of money.


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## Liberty (Feb 9, 2022)

Starsong...your mother sounds like a wonderful person.  So very true, what she said.  To some there is never enough, always want more, everything they do is about money.  The love of money can consume so much energy, it  soon becomes all about the financial world and robs them of the ability to cultivate hobbies and  to receive and share pure joy in their lives.  My mother said "treasure each golden hour".

Think we were very fortunate to have such wise moms!


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## mathjak107 (Feb 9, 2022)

StarSong said:


> You misunderstood the intent of my post, but that's ok.  Many times on these threads you've mentioned your aversion to buying a primary residence - and I'm sincerely glad that you're happy with that decision.  The peculiarities of stringent NY rent control laws work strongly in your favor, but those kinds of laws are rarities in most areas of the country.
> 
> Anecdotally, my friends and family members who've paid off their their primary residences have found that route to be an emotional comfort and financial godsend during retirement years. Each of us chooses the path that makes us comfortable.
> 
> ...


The problem is we don’t know how much is enough until we die ….

nursing home care can end up driving the stay at home spouse in to impoverishment ..

having more money can buy more choices ….being able to move closer to the kids if need be or have different choices  in health care Options can be so important….even being able to afford to modify your home with what may be expensive modifications so you can stay in it if  things become problematic and you need care or have trouble with certain tasks .

so I would never say i or anyone else can have to much of a buffer For the unknown ….

how much is enough is like asking how long is a rope


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## StarSong (Feb 10, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> The problem is we don’t know how much is enough until we die ….
> 
> nursing home care can end up driving the stay at home spouse in to impoverishment ..
> 
> ...


Mom could have lived to 102 and would still have had more than enough.  If she'd run out of her own resources there were numerous safety nets strung beneath her - her children, grandchildren, friends, other family, and the government would have pitched in. Trust me, Mom wasn't going to wind up soloing under a bridge pushing a grocery cart with a few meager possessions.

Like most American children born in the early 1950s, I watched hundreds of hours of cowboy movies and TV shows. I can't tell you how much sleep I lost, first being terrified of, then planning escapes from: quicksand, flesh eating ants, being buried alive, and bandana wearing, six-shooter slinging, kidnapper bandits who tied up and hauled away their victims. They appeared to be commonplace occurrences. 

As an adult I try to calmly examine whether it's reasonable to worry about something. Could I possibly run out of resources before my life ends? Of course. The question though is not one of possibility but rather of probability - and that's what determines how much of my life's energy I'll allow something to consume.

No longer victimized by a rampant childhood imagination, I've learned to temper my fears by accumulating data, separating what's very likely from what's very unlikely, taking appropriate action to mitigate the worst threats, and then letting it go. 

The accumulation of money isn't one of my hobbies. I know some folks for whom it is a hobby... if you fit that description no disrespect is intended.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 10, 2022)

JimBob1952 said:


> Thank you Diva!


You're quite welcome sir.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 10, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Bad investor behavior or poor spending habits is common all through life..
> 
> it is funny because we have all these rules and guides for investing but very little for spending .
> 
> ...


_"all you hear is a useless unactionable mantra like live below your means , like that is a plan …" _I so agree MJ. I find much of the advice given doesn't seem geared for people living in the real world.


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## garyt1957 (Feb 10, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Muslims are not to charge interest either.


Interesting. Could you loan me a few bucks?


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## mathjak107 (Feb 11, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> _"all you hear is a useless unactionable mantra like live below your means , like that is a plan …" _I so agree MJ. I find much of the advice given doesn't seem geared for people living in the real world.


The problem is much of the advice in mantras is not actionable …it sounds good but it’s useless when you get down to it .

live below your means is spewed all the time but really means nothing as stated .

means can change yearly as income and expenses change …

spending less then you bring in may mean nothing if it is not a big enough savings rate .

that ratio between discretionary and non discretionary has to be wide enough so when expenses soar in a particular year you have a place to cut back .

that means you need a real spending plan , not a bunch of words that tell  you nothing


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 11, 2022)

My mantras have served me well, and I will continue to spew them.


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## StarSong (Feb 11, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> My mantras have served me well, and I will continue to spew them.


Frequently reminding myself of the Depression era mantra "use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without" helped pull me through financial rough patches.  As did the practice of honestly assessing the difference between my wants and needs.         

Don't get me wrong, I have great compassion for the truly poor and their increasingly dire situation.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 11, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Frequently reminding myself of the Depression era mantra "use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without" helped pull me through financial rough patches.  As did the practice of honestly assessing the difference between my wants and needs.
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I have great compassion for the truly poor and their increasingly dire situation.


We have very few actual needs …there is nothing most of us do that can’t get done cheaper .

all we really need is a tent in a warm climate and a lake to catch fish .

we don’t even need to live by ourselves as golden girling it certainly is option

sp pretty much everything above that is a want .

we all draw our line in the sand and anything below that line is just unacceptable to us  .so we don’t realize that everything on the opposite side is not a need , it’s really a want.

so there is a fine line between real needs and wants


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## Alligatorob (Feb 11, 2022)

Figured out today that my 401k has lost almost 16% of its value since January 1.  

So goes my 4% for the next 4 years....


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## mathjak107 (Feb 11, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Figured out today that my 401k has lost almost 16% of its value since January 1.
> 
> So goes my 4% for the next 4 years....


What is it in ? That is 2x what the market is down and that is for 100% equities…


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## Alligatorob (Feb 11, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> What is it in ?


Cash since I made the discovery.  

It did real well up until recently, I need to figure of what happened.  Guess it was the wrong "growth" stocks...


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## mathjak107 (Feb 11, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Cash since I made the discovery.
> 
> It did real well up until recently, I need to figure of what happened.  Guess it was the wrong "growth" stocks...


We’re you in individual stocks or funds ?

both the Total market funds and S&P FUNDS INCLUDING TODAY are down under 8% .

so you couldn’t have been in a diversified fund


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 11, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Frequently reminding myself of the Depression era mantra "use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without" helped pull me through financial rough patches.  As did the practice of honestly assessing the difference between my wants and needs.
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I have great compassion for the truly poor and their increasingly dire situation.st


Star this sentence says it all "As did the practice of honestly assessing the difference between my wants and needs. " First of all, if more people would be *honest* with themselves about their money then not cave in every time to their wants and stick to the needs, they'd be a lot less likely to accrue huge debt. I've read about millionaires and even billionaires who do that...it's probably part of the reason they are so rich.


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## Alligatorob (Feb 12, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> We’re you in individual stocks or funds ?


Funds, and one of them lost over 30% since Jan 1...  However it did gain over the last year, so not terrible in the big picture.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 12, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Funds, and one of them lost over 30% since Jan 1...  However it did gain over the last year, so not terrible in the big picture.


It must be centered around technology like ark


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## Don M. (Feb 12, 2022)

There are a multitude of factors, recently, that are driving the markets into such a "roller coaster" ride.  Covid, Inflation, Shortages, this Russia/Ukraine standoff, and now all the rumors about what the FED might do.  The start of 2022 has really been extreme in the up and down swings.  

I like to follow the CBOE VIX as an indicator of where the markets are heading.  In Good times, that index hovers in the 15 range, and the last couple of months of 2021, the markets rose substantially, as the VIX fell into that range.  However, in recent weeks, the VIX has nearly doubled, well into the upper 20's, and that has pretty much wiped out any gains from late last year.


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## StarSong (Feb 12, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Star this sentence says it all "As did the practice of honestly assessing the difference between my wants and needs. " First of all, if more people would be *honest* with themselves about their money then not cave in every time to their wants and stick to the needs, they'd be a lot less likely to accrue huge debt. I've read about millionaires and even billionaires who do that...it's probably part of the reason they are so rich.


So true.  My mother often commented that in 1961 members of the media were aghast that multi-millionaire Rose Kennedy didn't buy a new dress for her son's inauguration, but instead wore something already hanging in her closet.    

When finances have been very tight, I've been very disciplined about buying needs-only then relaxed as my situation improved. 

Case in point, over the past year DH & I replaced both TVs in our house. They worked just fine and had been bought only 7-8 years earlier. Unfortunately, they were earlier generation technology and therefore not "smart" enough to work easily and seamlessly with streaming content. (We passed along those TVs to a couple of grateful friends-of-friends for whom they were an upgrade so it worked out just fine.)

Had money been scarcer we either wouldn't have needed smart TVs because we wouldn't be paying for streaming, or we would have suffered with the hassle of remote-control roulette to tune into the channels we wanted.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 12, 2022)

Don M. said:


> There are a multitude of factors, recently, that are driving the markets into such a "roller coaster" ride.  Covid, Inflation, Shortages, and now this Russia/Ukraine standoff.  The start of 2022 has really been extreme in the up and down swings.
> 
> I like to follow the CBOE VIX as an indicator of where the markets are heading.  In Good times, that index hovers in the 15 range, and the last couple of months of 2021, the markets rose substantially, as the VIX fell into that range.  However, in recent weeks, the VIX has nearly doubled, well into the upper 20's, and that has pretty much wiped out any gains from late last year.


So far over the one year a total market fund and the S&P are still up about 10% and down ytd only 7.50%, nor have we seen much of a flight into the safety assets


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## Don M. (Feb 12, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> So far over the one year a total market fund and the S&P are still up about 10% and down ytd only 7.50%, nor have we seen much of a flight into the safety assets



Yes, unless a person has a "crystal ball", the best approach seems to be staying invested, fairly diverse, and be prepared to ride out any drastic swings in the markets.


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## Alligatorob (Feb 12, 2022)

Don M. said:


> Yes, unless a person has a "crystal ball", the best approach seems to be staying invested, fairly diverse, and be prepared to ride out any drastic swings in the markets.


Probably so, but it can be hard to resist the "run about, scream and shout" approach...


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## garyt1957 (Feb 12, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Figured out today that my 401k has lost almost 16% of its value since January 1.
> 
> So goes my 4% for the next 4 years....


Then you don't understand the 4% rule. Downturns in the market are baked into the 4% rule, that's why it's so low.


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## garyt1957 (Feb 12, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Cash since I made the discovery.
> 
> It did real well up until recently, I need to figure of what happened.  Guess it was the wrong "growth" stocks...


So you locked in that 16% loss? And now you have to figure out when to get back in. Missing just the first few up days kills your overall return. Did you read the book "How to make a million dollars by starting with 10 million"?


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## Alligatorob (Feb 12, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> Did you read the book "How to make a million dollars by starting with 10 million"?


No, but I could probably have written it, LOL.  Back in the late 80s I invested in the Japanese stock market, just before the crash.  When I finally dumped it years later it had not recovered.  Tried to stick with US investments since then.

Most of my stock choices have been bad so I use an advisor, not paid on commission.  So far he has done better than I was able to.  He suggested taking it out, and Friday we decided to put it back into some other funds, ones he believes are safer.  We'll see, like I say he has done better than I, hope it all works out.  Course I could survive on Social Security, so its all gravy to me.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 12, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> Then you don't understand the 4% rule. Downturns in the market are baked into the 4% rule, that's why it's so low.


But proponents of the 4% rule says start with that percentage but it should be adjusted up or down to fit what the market it doing, so that one would take less than 4% when markets are down.

@Alligatorob When you say stocks do you mean private stocks or are you including mutual funds?


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> But proponents of the 4% rule says start with that percentage but it should be adjusted up or down to fit what the market it doing, so that one would take less than 4% when markets are down.
> 
> @Alligatorob When you say stocks do you mean private stocks or are you including mutual funds?


if they say that then they are not proponents.

the 4% swr is actually called the constant spending power method .

*Constant Spending Power: *Future spending will be about the same as entered above, adjusted for inflation. This keeps the approximate spending power constant during the term of your retirement.

the Biggest problem the constant spending power  method has is hitting 30 years with to much money unspent and enjoyed as using 40-60% equities has resulted in dying with more than you started  90% of the 121 rolling 30 year retirement periods we have had .

67% of them resulted in dying with more than 2x what you started with and 50% of them had you end with more than 3x .

less than  10% of the time was a pay cut needed which are the same odds as ending with 6x more than you started.

so a method of taking raises other than inflation adjustments is a good idea …

one such method has you looking at your balance every three years ….if you are still 50% higher  then the day you started , take a 10% increase plus inflation adjusting .

but the 4% swr constant dollar method which is what we erroneously call the 4% rule is not designed to be adjusted with markets


there are other methods that use a yearly balance like bob clyatts 95/5 method .

i use that one myself .

each year you take 4% of the years balance ..if it is a down year you take the higher of  4% of the balance or 5% less then you previously took .

so the constant spending method normally needs no adjustment based on market performance.

another method is
*Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan: *Start with the constant spending power model, but use Bernicke's "Reality Retirement Plan



> Ty Bernicke's _Reality Retirement Planning: A New Paradigm for an Old Science_ describes extensive research showing that most people see significant reductions in spending with age (not related to reduced assets or income). If selected, this option will reduce your inflation-adjusted yearly spending by 2-3% per year starting at age 56, and then stabilizing at age 76 to keep up with inflation.


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## Liberty (Feb 13, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Mom could have lived to 102 and would still have had more than enough.  If she'd run out of her own resources there were numerous safety nets strung beneath her - her children, grandchildren, friends, other family, and the government would have pitched in. Trust me, Mom wasn't going to wind up soloing under a bridge pushing a grocery cart with a few meager possessions.
> 
> Like most American children born in the early 1950s, I watched hundreds of hours of cowboy movies and TV shows. I can't tell you how much sleep I lost, first being terrified of, then planning escapes from: quicksand, flesh eating ants, being buried alive, and bandana wearing, six-shooter slinging, kidnapper bandits who tied up and hauled away their victims. They appeared to be commonplace occurrences.
> 
> ...


Dittox2, here, Star.  You got it!


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## garyt1957 (Feb 13, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> But proponents of the 4% rule says start with that percentage but it should be adjusted up or down to fit what the market it doing, so that one would take less than 4% when markets are down.
> 
> @Alligatorob When you say stocks do you mean private stocks or are you including mutual funds?


That's not how the 4% rule works. You take 4% the first year and increase it by the rate of inflation the next year ,on and on. You never reduce your draw no matter what the market does.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> That's not how the 4% rule works. You take 4% the first year and increase it by the rate of inflation the next year ,on and on. You never reduce your draw no matter what the market does.


With one exception .

kitces  crunched the numbers and found in order for 4% inflation adjusted to hold , you need to have at least a 2% real return average over the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement..

all the failures were because they did not maintain at least that average early on .

so what that means is if   5 years in you are below , a red flag should go up .

8-10 years in if you are still below an alarm should go off and a pay cut would be in order .

once the failure periods , 1907 ,1929 ,1937 ,1965 and 1966 went beyond 15 years  the money spent down  was excessive and even some of the best bull markets in history couldnt save them.

it isn’t that 4% cant fail , it has …it is that a 90% or higher success rate  with 40-60% equities is considered pretty good odds  since when combined with the fact most of us won’t last 30 years in retirement it drives up the success rate even higher.

remember too 4% is based on a balanced portfolio….. fixed income without enough equities  has already failed at 4% so many times it is considered unsafe


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 13, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> That's not how the 4% rule works. You take 4% the first year and increase it by the rate of inflation the next year ,on and on. You never reduce your draw no matter what the market does.


Not according to what I've read and I've read several article about it over the years from different sources. Just sayin'....... Anyway, it doesn't affect me because I don't need to take withdrawals from my retirement nest egg.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Not according to what I've read and I've read several article about it over the years from different sources. Just sayin'.......


As with most articles you see , the writers are misinformed..most stuff is just click bait by writers and not actual researchers in the  retirement planning field ..

there is no question they are wrong ..

that is the whole reason the premise of a safe withdrawal rate.  It was to create a safe ,secure  CONSISTENT income stream ..so it can be like any other pension source you can count on in good and bad times.

the odds of failing are on par with the odds of ones private pension failing from a healthy company


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 13, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> As with most articles you see , the writers are misinformed..most stuff is just click bait by writers and not actual researchers in the  retirement planning field ..
> 
> there is no question they are wrong ..
> 
> ...


I agree that these article can be subjective but many were by so called respected financial analysts and those working for major brokerages. So they were *all* wrong? I used to subscribe to Money and Kiplingers so were reading financial articles before I ever even dreamed of owning a computer, so click bait was not an issue. Now I get Schwab's investment magazine via email.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

Yes they are wrong ….most don’t stay up on top of research ..they learned old school ways and are now running on misinformation or what used to be thought ..

I found that first hand looking for a planner for myself .

you can look at the research from famous researcher michael kitces if you want the facts

in fact you can start here .

very enlightening

the first article is about just how hard the 4%  swr is to fail and what it would take .

the second is a look at how it stood up to the likes of 2000 and 2008

https://www.kitces.com/blog/what-returns-are-safe-withdrawal-rates-really-based-upon/

https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-has...he-tech-bubble-and-the-2008-financial-crisis/


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## garyt1957 (Feb 13, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> With one exception .
> 
> kitces  crunched the numbers and found in order for 4% inflation adjusted to hold , you need to have at least a 2% real return average over the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement..


We're all in trouble if we can't average 2% over a 15 year period no matter what method we use.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> We're all in trouble if we can't average 2% over a 15 year period no matter what method we use.


Not 2% , but 2% real returns ..that is inflation adjusted .

it already happened to those retiring in 1907,1929,1937 , 1965 , 1966 .

it took from 2000 to 2012 just to see about 1% in real return, that was 12 years ….it took 22 years in 1965 and 1966 

most conservative portfolios normally return 3-6% in real return


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## Rich29 (Feb 13, 2022)

I have been retired for 4 years. I have taken a draw of approx. 3.5% from retirement accounts each year.
My retirement accounts continue to grow but 4 years is not a guarantee for the future so we continue to
monitor spending. 

Also age makes a difference in terms of the 4% rule. Drawing 4% when one retires at 60-65 is a little more
risky than drawing down 4% starting retirement say at 70.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

Rich29 said:


> I have been retired for 4 years. I have taken a draw of approx. 3.5% from retirement accounts each year.
> My retirement accounts continue to grow but 4 years is not a guarantee for the future so we continue to
> monitor spending.
> 
> ...


The 4% swr is based on a 30 year retirement time frame …. Starting at 70 would be a different calculation totally.

planning from 70 to 92 instead of 62 to 92 shows a safe withdrawal rate would be  considered to be  4.80%  and  not 4%.

the later you start the higher the safe withdrawal rate is and the earlier you start the lower it is 

1,000,000 in a 50/50 4.80%  draw rate

FIRECalc looked at the 129 possible 22 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 129 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was  $-160,274 to $2,979,685, with an average at the end of $860,548 . (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 22 years. FIRECalc found that 9 cycles failed, for a success rate of 93.1%.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 13, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Yes they are wrong ….most don’t stay up on top of research ..they learned old school ways and are now running on misinformation or what used to be thought ..
> 
> I found that first hand looking for a planner for myself .
> 
> ...


Thank you...these look interesting. I bookmarked them so I can take my time and read them tomorrow. Busy night ahead, still.
@garyt1957 _"We're all in trouble if we can't average 2% over a 15 year period no matter what method we use."_ You've got that right!


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## mathjak107 (Feb 13, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Thank you...these look interesting. I bookmarked them so I can take my time and read them tomorrow. Busy night ahead, still.
> @garyt1957  Right!


I like the fact you always like to learn


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 13, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> I like the fact you always like to learn


Thank you again MJ!


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## dseag2 (Feb 13, 2022)

I understand both sides of the argument re: owning a home vs. renting, but when we moved to Dallas in 2006 we knew the maximum we wanted to spend for a house and stuck to it.  Because of the real estate bubble in South Florida at the time we were lucky enough to make a big profit on our home and paid cash for our home in Dallas.  It has since doubled in value.  

The dilemma is that we have no intention of selling because we love our home and our neighborhood, so our property taxes just keep going up.  However, if we sold our home we would have virtually nowhere to relocate.  There is very little real estate available and rents are sky-high.  Our only option is to move to another state and we are not interested.  

Our next-door neighbor is actually having her house completely remodeled because she has just retired and spends more time there, and she is gambling on high resale value.  She moved out in December and will not be moving back in until Spring.  The workmen are there every day.

We had everything replaced before I retired... windows, A/C units, water heaters, floors, etc. so I am planning on this being our "forever home".   I am one of those who feels emotionally satisfied due to owning my home though I know it may not be the best financial choice.


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 14, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> The 4% swr is based on a 30 year retirement time frame …. Starting at 70 would be a different calculation totally.
> 
> planning from 70 to 92 instead of 62 to 92 shows a safe withdrawal rate would be  considered to be  4.80%  and  not 4%.
> 
> ...


mathjak,

Do you think the SWR as we age would track with the government's IRA minimum distribution tables?


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## mathjak107 (Feb 14, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> mathjak,
> 
> Do you think the SWR as we age would track with the government's IRA minimum distribution tables?


Absolutely not …
.
Rmds are the exact opposite of what you want .

a safe withdrawal rate is designed to provide a safe , secure , CONSISTENT, income in good and not only bad but the worst of times .

the rmds are designed around the years balances ,So in bad years you would have big pay cuts since the draw is based on balance . The cuts can be so big you can’t pay your bills .

the whole idea of a safe withdrawal rate is to keep that income stream consistent and all that changes is the balance left.. rmds can vary wildly each year .


Also the rmds increase as you age ….your percentage is lowest when you are in your go go years and highest in your no go years …just the opposite of  how we spend.

so nope , the rmds as a pay check are awful ….would you want a pay check from a job that varied drastically year to year  to the point you couldn’t pay bills in bad years ?

also the good years would have you over drawing.

so rmds are designed to drain the account for tax purposes, not give you a consistent income to meet a lifetime of spending and meeting bills nor even inflation adjustments


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## StarSong (Feb 14, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> so rmds are designed to drain the account for tax purposes, not give you a consistent income to meet a lifetime of spending and meeting bills nor even inflation adjustments


Exactly so.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 14, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Absolutely not …
> .
> Rmds are the exact opposite of what you want .
> 
> ...


Another reason I'm glad that 1. I get a good pension (plus SS) so I don't need to make withdrawals from my retirement accounts and 2. Most of my investments are in a Roth, so my RMDs are quite minimal. They are also tax free because I make direct charitable contributions with them to St. Jude.


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## Leann (Apr 21, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> This is a great article.  Thanks for posting!
> 
> "Experts" are all over the board on the 4% Rule.  Some say it is too high.  Some say it is artificially low.  I'm just trying as much as I can right now to live off the savings I accumulated before being forced to retire.  I was lucky enough to receive unemployment for 15 months and I started drawing Social Security at 63.  Now the savings is dwindling.
> 
> ...


It seems you and I are in a similar position, @dseag2 , in some regards. I can live off my retirement income for now but maintaining my house will eventually eat into my investments. I know that at some point (within the next 10 years) a new roof will be needed, the heat pump will have to be replaced, appliances will fail, and the septic system could become problematic. I'm trying to be proactive and keep my eye on everything, getting things serviced as needed.


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## dseag2 (Apr 21, 2022)

Leann said:


> It seems you and I are in a similar position, @dseag2 , in some regards. I can live off my retirement income for now but maintaining my house will eventually eat into my investments. I know that at some point (within the next 10 years) a new roof will be needed, the heat pump will have to be replaced, appliances will fail, and the septic system could become problematic. I'm trying to be proactive and keep my eye on everything, getting things serviced as needed.


Yes, I hear you.  Our roof will be next due to various hailstorms.  Most of our neighbors have had theirs replaced, but due to our homeowner's insurance deductible the out-of-pocket expense will be over $11k.  I'm just not ready to go down that road right now!  The guy from the roofing company said I could look at it this way... the money I've saved on homeowner's insurance over a 16-year period more than offsets the cost of a new roof.


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## Don M. (Apr 21, 2022)

Home repair expenses must be factored in when considering retirement.  Nothing lasts forever, and replacing broken/worn parts of the house is part of the "equation".   In the nearly 20 years we've been here, we've replaced virtually all the appliances, and had the roofing replaced, etc.  We have the septic tank serviced every other year.  On average, I figure we spend between 5 to 7 hundred a year just to keep everything working.  
Renters don't experience those expenses, directly, but they are factored into the monthly rent.


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## Liberty (Apr 22, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> Yes, I hear you.  Our roof will be next due to various hailstorms.  Most of our neighbors have had theirs replaced, but due to our homeowner's insurance deductible the out-of-pocket expense will be over $11k.  I'm just not ready to go down that road right now!  The guy from the roofing company said I could look at it this way... the money I've saved on homeowner's insurance over a 16-year period more than offsets the cost of a new roof.


Smartest thing we did when hub built this big old joint was to get a standing metal roof put on it.
It will be here when we are on the other side.  And its very attractive, too.


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## mathjak107 (Apr 23, 2022)

Don M. said:


> Home repair expenses must be factored in when considering retirement.  Nothing lasts forever, and replacing broken/worn parts of the house is part of the "equation".   In the nearly 20 years we've been here, we've replaced virtually all the appliances, and had the roofing replaced, etc.  We have the septic tank serviced every other year.  On average, I figure we spend between 5 to 7 hundred a year just to keep everything working.
> Renters don't experience those expenses, directly, but they are factored into the monthly rent.


Most rental markets don’t care what someone’s expenses are …rental markets don’t care if you needed a roof or  new ac unit and other places didnt .

in fact they don’t care if you have paid off a mortgage or not.   If those around you have no mortgage and have rentals  the fact you do is irrelevant ….markets only allow a landlord market rents 

rents are set by local market conditions and maybe local laws

there are few desirable places one can   buy today and get as much rent as it costs to buy unless a lot of money is put down . Usually it is a long term investment and you need to pay your dues .

If you do plunk down a lot then the returns on that money put down and no longer coming in are a cost


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## StarSong (Apr 23, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Smartest thing we did when hub built this big old joint was to get a standing metal roof put on it.
> It will be here when we are on the other side.  And its very attractive, too.


I had to look up standing metal roofs.  I've never seen a roof like that in So Cal, not sure why that is.


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## OneEyedDiva (May 14, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Smartest thing we did when hub built this big old joint was to get a standing metal roof put on it.
> It will be here when we are on the other side.  And its very attractive, too.


I had to look it up too @StarSong. That *is* attractive roofing Liberty. Are those metal roofs more expensive or comparable to prices of the most common types of roofs?


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## Liberty (May 14, 2022)

StarSong said:


> I had to look up standing metal roofs.  I've never seen a roof like that in So Cal, not sure why that is.


Yes, they are very expensive, but built to last a lifetime (usually)...lol.


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## Liberty (May 14, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> I had to look it up too @StarSong. That *is* attractive roofing Liberty. Are those metal roofs more expensive or comparable to prices of the most common types of roofs?


They can run 3 or even 4 times as much as asphalt shingles.  Our roof was actually built in the back yard and hoisted up over our house to secure it.  During hurricane "Ike", a big tree had fallen on it and our insurance company came out to inspect.  

The response was "wow, what a roof".  The tree was removed and just a few edges were pounded out.  Otherwise it was completely intact. I'll see if I can find a picture good enough to show you what it looks like, later.  We're driving the kids back to the airport shortly...lol.


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