# A Plethora of November Inflation Data



## Harry Le Hermit (Dec 10, 2021)

The CPI was released this morning. 6.8% was within the expected range of 6.6% to 6.9%. With it came a lot of other indexes being released and I threw mine in due to inflated ego, I guess. So pick one you like or wait until near end of the month when all the others pop up.

Of course, this is all in the rear view mirror and the current $64,000 question (6,678, in 1958 dollars) is the direction going forward. With last December at a 260.474 reading and the current at 277.948, merely staying flat would make the next reading at 6.7%. Energy seems to be easing, but will it be enough to hold off increases in other areas? Smarter minds than me indicate 7.0% ~ 7.2%. A lot of that is base effect, as the month to month is slated to ease to 0.4%. For the history buffs, June, 1982 year over year inflation was reported at 7.1%. Were they really the "good ole days"?

Real Earnings were also released and showed a monthly drop, -0.4% or back to March, 2020 level.


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## Knight (Dec 10, 2021)

The neighborhood Walmart manager has no sense of humor. The other day I bought 8 gallons of distilled water @$1.14 a gallon. The week before it was 88 cents a gallon. About 29.3 % increase in one week.

The store manager just happened to be walking by when I was loading the water into my cart. I stopped him & asked where the sign was.  He looked puzzled & asked  what sign?

I said well there usually is a sign claiming a new lower price. Why not put up a sign claiming a new much higher price? No smile no nothing.


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## Harry Le Hermit (Dec 10, 2021)

Knight said:


> The other day I bought 8 gallons of distilled water


So you're they guy that bought all of it back in the beginning and had me distilling my own.   I learned my lesson!


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## Don M. (Dec 10, 2021)

Inflation is unlikely to ease, anytime soon.  With all the shortages at the stores, and ships lined up waiting to be unloaded, the basic rules of Supply and Demand are proving to be true.  Fuel prices will probably stay quite high for quite some time, as our government tries to push the Green Agenda without being very prepared for an orderly transition.  Over the past year, people have saved quite a bit of money they would usually spend on "entertainment", and they are spending that money on consumer goods....which is contributing to the overall price rises and shortages.


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## Gaer (Dec 10, 2021)

Don M. said:


> Inflation is unlikely to ease, anytime soon.  With all the shortages at the stores, and ships lined up waiting to be unloaded, the basic rules of Supply and Demand are proving to be true.  Fuel prices will probably stay quite high for quite some time, as our government tries to push the Green Agenda without being very prepared for an orderly transition.  Over the past year, people have saved quite a bit of money they would usually spend on "entertainment", and they are spending that money on consumer goods....which is contributing to the overall price rises and shortages.


Maybe 2025?


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## Irwin (Dec 10, 2021)

Don M. said:


> Inflation is unlikely to ease, anytime soon.  With all the shortages at the stores, and ships lined up waiting to be unloaded, the basic rules of Supply and Demand are proving to be true.  Fuel prices will probably stay quite high for quite some time, as our government tries to push the Green Agenda without being very prepared for an orderly transition.  Over the past year, people have saved quite a bit of money they would usually spend on "entertainment", and they are spending that money on consumer goods....which is contributing to the overall price rises and shortages.


Maybe you could elaborate on why you think we shouldn't transition to green energy. It seems like it's a good thing to do, and it's not like they're proposing a ban on fossil fuels. From what I've read, it's a gradual transition into more clean energy sources of energy such as solar and wind power, and EV charging stations which will give people more options. But gas powered cars aren't going away anytime soon. I'll bet in 50 years, there will still be gas stations, but they'll also have battery charging facilities.


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## Don M. (Dec 10, 2021)

Irwin said:


> Maybe you could elaborate on why you think we shouldn't transition to green energy. It seems like it's a good thing to do, and it's not like they're proposing a ban on fossil fuels. From what I've read, it's a gradual transition into more clean energy sources of energy such as solar and wind power, and EV charging stations which will give people more options. But gas powered cars aren't going away anytime soon. I'll bet in 50 years, there will still be gas stations, but they'll also have battery charging facilities.


It appears that you misread my post.  I did NOT say we shouldn't transition to Green energy.....BUT that our government policies with regard to this transition are contributing to inflation....particularly where fossil fuel availability is concerned.  We are a Long way from being Green, but things like shutting down the Keystone pipeline, and sharply reducing fracking, have reduced fuel supplies and are insuring that current gas and natural gas prices will remain unusually high for now, and probably some time to come.   The recent release of oil surplus is an open admission that our government policies are creating more problems than they cure. 

Gas prices are taking a toll on those who have to drive to work, and trucking companies that have to move our products.  Just wait until Winter fully arrives, and those who heat with gas or heating oil start seeing their energy bills.

Solar and wind supply only a small fraction of our electrical power, and it will be years before there is enough Green energy to replace fossil fuels.  Couple that with recent events in Texas and California...where lack of infrastructure, and poor maintenance have caused widespread electrical outages....and it is obvious that we are a long way from an orderly transition to Green.


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## Harry Le Hermit (Dec 14, 2021)

Another report from the BLS for Producer Prices.

Basically, "stuff" other than food and energy is increasing ahead of the CPI, as well as the entire PPI. The intermediates rose slightly year over year and might be attributable to "base effects'. 

The contracts for that 50M barrel oil release should be announced today. 18M barrels are for complete release, while 32M are in the exchange program. Deliveries for all should begin 12-16 and the exchange program (payback) begins in July 2022 and concludes 9-30-2024. In any event, it must be refined to have any impact on gasoline prices. Which brings up the question... why refine more, for the some bottom line result? "Optics"


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## Don M. (Dec 14, 2021)

Harry Le Hermit said:


> Basically, "stuff" other than food and energy is increasing ahead of the CPI, as well as the entire PPI.



Everything is going up in price....not just gas and groceries.  The rate of inflation is well over 9% for the year...which will quickly negate any SS COLA.  
We bought a new electric range, this past Spring....and it was sale for slightly under $1000.  A few days ago I was researching an item at the same store, and checked on the current price of our new range....it is now "on sale" for $1190.


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## Harry Le Hermit (Dec 14, 2021)

Don M. said:


> Everything is going up in price....not just gas and groceries. The rate of inflation is well over 9% for the year...which will quickly negate any SS COLA.


I am thinking the retail sales report tomorrow, might not be so healthy... after the inflation is backed out of the numbers. I would think a lot of holiday shopping took place a bit earlier than 21st century "seasonal" norms. But that is tomorrow's gripe! 

Of course, if you are considering a _lump of coal as a stocking stuffer   _... it is down quite a bit from 2 months ago, although still very much higher than last year.


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## CarolfromTX (Dec 14, 2021)

Had dinner at my daughters house on Sunday. Corned beef and cabbage. She confessed she bought the corned beef last summer and froze it, then never got around to serving it until Sunday.  She looked up the current price per pound.  It’s $2.00 per pound higher now. About a 30% plus increase over 6 months. Ouch. It was delish, by the way.


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## Liberty (Dec 15, 2021)

Time to revert to dividend funds.  The Dow will be the best looking dog in the kennel.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 16, 2021)

Meh …..no one can predict what markets will do

fed announces rate hike plans and markets go up .

dividends don’t mean the stocks are any safer ..just look at AT&T ….


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## Liberty (Dec 16, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> Meh …..no one can predict what markets will do
> 
> fed announces rate hike plans and markets go up .
> 
> dividends don’t mean the stocks are any safer ..just look at AT&T ….


John Bogle said "nobody knows nothing"...lol.


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## Aunt Bea (Dec 16, 2021)

IMO the advance notice of possible rate hikes allows the financial markets to factor them in without making them a big concern.

I'm concerned that all of the stimulus money pumped into the economy disrupted the normal market cycles. 

The markets can't seem to find an excuse to make a serious correction, but at some point, they will.

_"The four most expensive words in the English language are, This time it's different."_ - John Templeton


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## mathjak107 (Dec 16, 2021)

right now the problem isn’t monetary as  much as it is supply chain shortages…the fed can’t make more lumber or cream cheese or beef or car chips  .

much of what was handed out was either spent on servicing existing debt or saved , not buying new goods and services .

we are the problem not the money supply


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## oldmontana (Dec 16, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> Meh …..no one can predict what markets will do
> 
> fed announces rate hike plans and markets go up .
> 
> dividends don’t mean the stocks are any safer ..just look at AT&T ….


Yes, not all didvidend stock are safe.  AT&T is just one stock.  That is why I have several dividend stocks includind ATT&t which is paying almost 9% and their earnings look good.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 16, 2021)

and your point quoting ?


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## Liberty (Dec 17, 2021)

Yesterday the only thing that made money for me was the great dividend fund I've got- the other funds lost.  Value time.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 17, 2021)

Liberty said:


> Yesterday the only thing that made money for me was the great dividend fund I've got- the other funds lost.  Value time.


My gold , commodities and real return fund were up along with bonds


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## Liberty (Dec 17, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> My gold , commodities and real return fund were up along with bonds


So far today, should have bought Tech - Nasdaq up nicely!


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## Don M. (Dec 17, 2021)

Liberty said:


> So far today, should have bought Tech - Nasdaq up nicely!


That could, and probably will, change next week.  The markets have been a real  mess the past few weeks.  Between all the bad news surrounding this virus, and the supply chain shortages, etc., following the market has been a bit disheartening.  However, with the strong, and somewhat questionable rises in the markets over the past few months, a "correction" is quite understandable.  

I gave up trying to "time" the markets some time ago, and just moved everything into a fairly conservative portfolio.  The few times I've tried to "predict" the markets, I've guessed wrong.  Now, I'm just satisfied to maintain a good "base", and not get too concerned about all the short term movements.


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## Aunt Bea (Dec 17, 2021)

It can be a volatile time of year with annual distributions, year-end tax planning, IRA contributions, etc...

I don't attempt to play the market I buy and hold.

I haven't sold anything since 2012.   I do continue to buy as money becomes available.


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## fmdog44 (Dec 17, 2021)

Aunt Bea said:


> It can be a volatile time of year with annual distributions, year-end tax planning, IRA contributions, etc...
> 
> I don't attempt to play the market I buy and hold.
> 
> I haven't sold anything since 2012.   I do continue to buy as money becomes available.


Holding takes patience a lot of people don't have. Too many young people want max gains in the shortest periods of time. The internet explosion/collapse was the best example of that. I will consider selling if one flat lines for three (+/-) years. I have had money in a Vanguard dividend fund for a long time that I am satisfied with. I am no expert, so I watch and listen to the experts.


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## Aunt Bea (Dec 17, 2021)

fmdog44 said:


> Holding takes patience a lot of people don't have. Too many young people want max gains in the shortest periods of time. The internet explosion/collapse was the best example of that. I will consider selling if one flat lines for three (+/-) years. I have had money in a Vanguard dividend fund for a long time that I am satisfied with. I am no expert, so I watch and listen to the experts.


I’m too lazy to follow the market as a trader.

When I was young part of my job was selling mortgages.  It required me to be glued to a Telerate screen trying to anticipate the fluctuations in the mortgage market to find the best price and time to sell.   I found it to be very tedious and stressful.  Some of my coworkers thrived on it like it was an exhilarating video game.

I’m just not cut out to be a trader.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 18, 2021)

You likely did better for not trading …most traders end up lagging…

even the best of the predictors like ray dalio or Paul Tudor jones end up sliding backwards


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## Liberty (Dec 18, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> You likely did better for not trading …most traders end up lagging…
> 
> even the best of the predictors like ray dalio or Paul Tudor jones end up sliding backwards


That's for sure.  I just talk about it, same as the rest of you - have good funds that we just hold on to and reinvest the dividends.  Add a few grand to a growth fund now and then, otherwise sit and say "today I will buy this or that"...lol.  Its fun to talk though.

Honestly believe its sheer luck to actually successfully time the market. Timing the market is a waste of "time".  And experts are often wrong so pay little attention to them.  Like Bogle said "nobody knows nothing".


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## mathjak107 (Dec 20, 2021)

Remember though , reinvesting dividends is not growing the money unless the stock appreciates as much as the payout was …it is only about total returns …

if you don’t reinvest then you took what amounts to a draw from your investment and you have less compounding for you .

most people don’t understand what dividends represent or how they work …so if you do , great but few do .

they think of them like interest and they are not ..they are like a distribution from your fund where they pay out x amount and next day you reinvest and have more shares at a lower price but the same exact dollars compounding for you as you had .

there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket 

if you don’t reinvest and the  Stock doubles you have 180.00 dollars plus ten in pocket .

if you reinvested then you have the same full hundred dollars working for you and  if the stock doubled you have 200 .

if the same 100 dollar  stock never paid out and it saw the same doubling its the same 200 as the reinvested money was .

people get blinded because they see more shares but it is more shares at a lower price each time but same dollars compounding as you had …no different then a stock split


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## Liberty (Dec 20, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> Remember though , reinvesting dividends is not growing the money unless the stock appreciates as much as the payout was …it is only about total returns …
> 
> if you don’t reinvest then you took what amounts to a draw from your investment and you have less compounding for you .
> 
> ...


We have one good dividend "growth" fund that has done very well in appreciation  plus distribution.  That fund is great.  Do agree with you here - no use trading dividends for appreciation.


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## oldmontana (Dec 20, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> Remember though , reinvesting dividends is not growing the money unless the stock appreciates as much as the payout was …it is only about total returns …
> 
> if you don’t reinvest then you took what amounts to a draw from your investment and you have less compounding for you .
> 
> ...



===============================
there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .

if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .

you have one share of xyz at 100.00 dollars….it goes ex div and pays out 10 ..before it can trade again it has its price automatically reduced to 90 dollars to offset the pay out .so you now have 90 dollars invested at the ring of the bell and ten dollars in pocket


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The fact is most stocks that pay dividends also appreciate.  Yes, when a stock x-div the stock as a rule goes down but that is no reason to sell that stock.


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## Harry Le Hermit (Dec 20, 2021)

I am very confused over the assumption that a stock drops immediately after the ex-dividend date and correlates directly to stock price adjustment. Dates of dividend payout and amounts are usually announced 2 1/2 to 3 months prior to payout and the ex-dividend date usually precedes that date by 3~4 weeks. Any movement in the stock price is based on excitement or disappointment. Generally the rule regarding a dip in price corresponds to heavier volume of stocks being traded or supply/demand, as does the rise in stock price to lower volume.


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## HoneyNut (Dec 20, 2021)

CarolfromTX said:


> She confessed she bought the corned beef last summer and froze it, then never got around to serving it until Sunday. She looked up the current price per pound. It’s $2.00 per pound higher now. About a 30% plus increase over 6 months.


The cost to freeze it for a year (electricity and amortizing the freezer) might have been around $1.41 (my math could be wrong tho).  On the other hand, value of having it on hand when wanted = priceless.


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## Packerjohn (Dec 20, 2021)

My government is trying to tell me that the rate of inflation for November was 4.7%.  When I visited Costco and saw that my  peaches from Greece went up from $7.99 to $9.99 I know that my government is trying to feed me a bunch of bull!  You don't have to be a scientist to figure out those peaches went up 20%.


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## Don M. (Dec 20, 2021)

Packerjohn said:


> My government is trying to tell me that the rate of inflation for November was 4.7%.


That's about "half" the "official" rate, here in the U.S.  The government numbers are quite "optimistic", compared to what most people are experiencing.  Food prices, especially for meats and fresh produce, have gone up far more than 10% in the past year, according to our experiences.  The cost of vehicle fuel is almost 50% higher than it normally is, during this time of year.  Those heating their homes with gas or propane will see a huge increase in their bills this Winter.


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## CarolfromTX (Dec 20, 2021)

This is a prime example of the government, yours, mine, theirs, trying to convince us we’re not seeing what we’re seeing.  Not experiencing what we’re experiencing. Nothing to see here.  Move along. Well, my grocery bill has skyrocketed.


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## OneEyedDiva (Dec 21, 2021)

Liberty said:


> Yesterday the only thing that made money for me was the great dividend fund I've got- the other funds lost.  Value time.


Most of my investments are dividend paying. And I like it like that.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Most of my investments are dividend paying. And I like it like that.


Nothing wrong with that if the total returns are good ..returns don’t care if they are from appreciation, dividends or a combo ..

but most amateur investors think of dividends alone as their return  and that is not the case .

heck AT&T would have been a star if that was the case with their 6 and 7% dividends. Instead of a dog for investors for years


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## OneEyedDiva (Dec 21, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> Nothing wrong with that if the total returns are good ..returns don’t care if they are from appreciation, dividends or a combo ..
> 
> but most amateur investors think of dividends alone as their return  and that is not the case .
> 
> heck AT&T would have been a star if that was the case with their 6 and 7% dividends. Instead of a dog for investors for years


My total returns have been very good for all but one of the funds and that one is picking up but still below average for it's class. Who woulda thunk it...that AT&T would wind up being a "dog"?!


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## oldmontana (Dec 21, 2021)

oldmontana said:


> ===============================
> there is never a benefit to dividends alone , they are only a return of your own money like a draw from a portfolio…your actual return need share appreciation to get ahead .
> 
> if anyone is lost here is a simplified example .
> ...



One think that mathjak107 did not say is that 
many dividend paying stocks go UP prior to the x- div date as it increases the amount they will get when the dividend is paid. Basic investing 101.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

oldmontana said:


> One think that mathjak107 did not say is that
> many dividend paying stocks go UP prior to the x- div date as it increases the amount they will get when the dividend is paid. Basic investing 101.


They still are reduced before the opening bell by the amount paid , always …

it is no different then a fund that pays a dividend ….it is a return of  a piece of whatever the existing share price was and the stock must be reduced by the amount paid and it is automatically.

markets alway move it up and down but one thing is for sure , the value is always reduced by what is paid…if markets moved it up 10% that is 10% from the reduced value ..

it you reinvested then it’s 10% on the value you had pre ex div the same as if the stock didn’t pay out at all.

sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy 

basic investing 101


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

OneEyedDiva said:


> My total returns have been very good for all but one of the funds and that one is picking up but still below average for it's class. Who woulda thunk it...that AT&T would wind up being a "dog"?!


Yep AT&T has been a dog for many years , Exxon , ge , all provided investors with awful  returns despite their dividends . Even ppl was left in the dust by an s&p fund


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## oldmontana (Dec 21, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> They still are reduced before the opening bell by the amount paid , always …
> 
> it is no different then a fund that pays a dividend ….it is a return of  a piece of whatever the existing share price was and the stock must be reduced by the amount paid and it is automatically.
> 
> ...



================================
sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy

Its not a stratgy its a fact.  Basic investing 101.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

oldmontana said:


> ================================
> sometimes stocks may move up before going ex div but studies have shown it is no better then random trying to make it a strategy
> 
> Its not a stratgy its a fact.  Basic investing 101.


Bull, if they go up pre div it is just typical market action that time , next time it may go down .
Studies have shown there is no  strategy that can be used assuming the stock will go up up extra pre ex div reliably …if it goes up it is simple market normal action .

and then the value of your investment is reduced by the payment going forward for markets to act on ..it is pretty much a wash.
It’s simple math.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

You can see how it works here .

here. Is a typical dividend payout

on dec 12  2019 it opened at  57.26 and closed at 57.41

it went ex div for .46 cents and exchange computers reset it to 56.94

it open next morning at 56.96 after closing at 57.26 the night before



so all trading and compounding is on 56.96 Going forward


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## Aunt Bea (Dec 21, 2021)

I agree, but I don’t sweat it down to the last basis point.

I have some funds that I look forward to receiving the distributions of dividends and capital gains.  I have other funds where everything is reinvested.

The distributions are a part of my simplified ‘sugar bowl’ system of piecing together my income.

To me the important thing is to have a lifetime system or habit of saving and investing.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

Aunt Bea said:


> I agree, but I don’t sweat it down to the last basis point.
> 
> I have some funds that I look forward to receiving the distributions of dividends and capital gains.  I have other funds where everything is reinvested.
> 
> ...


We take the dividends in our taxable account and fill next years spending bucket …we reinvest the distributions in our retirement  accounts


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## oldmontana (Dec 21, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> You can see how it works here .
> 
> here. Is a typical dividend payout
> 
> ...





mathjak107 said:


> You can see how it works here .
> 
> here. Is a typical dividend payout
> 
> ...





mathjak107 said:


> You can see how it works here .
> 
> here. Is a typical dividend payout
> 
> ...


================================

You are stuck on that.  I made my point that just because a stock goes down the day after they pay a div does not mean that the price will stay down like your posts try to project.

I have many utility stocks that show what you what you trying to project about dividends is not true.

So you do not like div paying stocks.  You were on on that kick about two year ago.


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## Knight (Dec 21, 2021)

mathjak107 said:


> We take the dividends in our taxable account and fill next years spending bucket …we reinvest the distributions in our retirement  accounts


same here since the stock we have is going to our sons as inheritance. The ups & downs of share value aren't something we follow. What ever the share price is when we croak is what I suspect our sons won't care about, they will just sell to get whatever the value is.


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## mathjak107 (Dec 21, 2021)

oldmontana said:


> ================================
> 
> You are stuck on that.  I made my point that just because a stock goes down the day after they pay a div does not mean that the price will stay down like your posts try to project.
> 
> ...


i never said it stays down , but what it does do is reduce future compounding if you don’t reinvest so you have back the same amount before it went ex div .

if you had 100k invested at the close and it paid a  10% dividend you have only 90k left working for you  after the adjustment and 10k in pocket .

if market action doubled that stock because of great news the next day , you have 180k and 10k in pocket.

if you reinvested that 10k you have  100k working for you and if it doubled  on the news you have 200k .

if it never paid out the 10k dividend and you had the original 100k  you had before the dividend and the stock doubled on the news it is the same 200k balance.

if you are still confused about what I said , read this again


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