# Oz is firing up early this year.



## Diwundrin (Oct 16, 2013)

We'd had a few hundred smallish bushfires so far but the 'serious' ones don't usually happen until around February after summer has cooked it up a bit.  

Just heard they've closed Newcastle airport and the roads are clogged with traffic fleeing the area.  It's got a wind behind it and has residents and insurance companies very nervous.

Another one has taken a few houses down Tezza's way, in the Southern  Highlands,  not real close, but that area is not known to feature for  bushfires usually.

Another biggy up in the Blue Mountains, Bell's line of Road, but that's ho hum, happens all the time, only unusually early this time.

There's been a bad one burning in the upper Hunter Valley for a week about 20 kliks from Singleton.  My family have been in that area for generations and those type of fires just didn't happen 'back then'.  Farmers all burned off the dead grass on their own properties in their own time according to weather, wind direction, whim and need.  
They're aren't allowed to now, it takes weeks of paper shuffling to get it approved by some desk wallah and the ideal weather windows are lost.  They used to clear their own patches of scrub, and burn off ground fuel build up too but no more.  Greenies get the vapours at the thought of it.


I was just looking toward the beach here.  The trees are doubled over in a roaring Southerly and tinder dry.  If some retard on the track through the 'nature strip reserve' between the houses and dunes drops a match the wind will drive it straight along the dunes and take out half the town.  We have one fire engine manned by mostly retired volunteers.  The younger volunteers will be away down in Coffs working.  Not that it'd matter, it would move too fast to do anything about it.

They've been burning off up in the hills for months but can't touch the 'nature reserve' sanctuary areas down here.  Someone tell a Greenie that dry trees don't have a fire exemption permit because of what side of the track they're growing on please?


----------



## terra (Oct 16, 2013)

Meanwhile.... today it's snowing in parts of Tasmania,  also snow predicted tonight on the Australian alps.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 16, 2013)

Can't complain about the weather here eh Tezz?  It's just a matter of chasing up what type you like. 



A lot of the Pt Stephens region is blacked out, the fire's taken a few more transformers out, and they're getting antsy in Raymond Terrace. They'll have to pedal faster to get the airport powered up again.

Heard something about parts of Campbelltown (outer Sydney suburb)   blacked out now, must be one down there doing damage too.  Might be part of that Balmoral one?  You know that area better than me.   Busy time for the fireys this year by the looks of it.  

I'd like to see 3 years service in the SES or Volunteer Fire Brigade mandatory for all Greenies.


----------



## terra (Oct 16, 2013)

Yeah Di.... as hot as it's been today in and around Sydney, I've just brought in a load of firewood to light the fire.

... a few minutes ago, I received an email with photos from big daddy in Sydney.  It showed his nearby bushfire smoke with the sun behind it.... it looked like the end of the world !....  Armageddon !


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

The sky to the north of Sydney was an amazing sight this afternoon. The smoke was deep purple with orange  areas. The wind has been hot and strong from the NE but a SW change is passing through. People in Turramurra are getting burnt gum leaves from the Penrith area fires but no embers. 

Where I am to the south west of Sydney we are quite clear of fires. The Illawarra is getting a lot of smoke and ash from further south.

Will someone please tell Diwundrin that it is the fireys who control the hazard reduction programs, not the mythical greenies.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

A couple of photos taken from my daughter's house

Looking north





Looking more to the west


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 17, 2013)

Get real Warri, they can only burn what they are allowed to burn after due paper work is done.  
They are a finite force, they can't be everywhere.

They can't do what the farmers  used to do for themselves.  = The Singleton and Pt Stevens fires.  .. and just heard another big one on prime farmland 20k from  Muswellbrook in the Hunter V.  They're being evacuated so they've given up on controlling that one too.

People in bush areas aren't allowed to clear trees back more than a few metres from their houses any more! = The already burned out homes in Springwood and Winmalee... again!  ...perhaps into the hundreds tonight.

The laws changed.  The Greenie types changed them.  ... and if only Greenie d***heads were indeed mythical!

The Koori settlement a few Ks from here didn't muck about with paperwork.  They've torched everything within cooee of their homes and to hell with the consequences.  It is a very neat burnoff btw, they're good at it.  Oh, and they get free legal aid so no worries on that account eh?


Guess Aussies are watching the coverage on ch24 but state of play is: 90 fires reported currently burning in NSW, 36 out of control, 7 emergency status nearing, or in, populated areas.  2,000 firefighters to go round.

Caves Beach is being evacuated now, *south* of Newcastle.  Have to wonder who or what is starting all these at once.  It's not exactly the worst 'fire' weather by any means and no storms to start them.  ??


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 17, 2013)

Geeze Warri, where is she?  That looks too close for comfort.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

Not that close. She lives a little bit west of Parramatta at Greystanes. 

On the subject of burning off. Yes, there are regulations and there are other methods of hazard reduction other than burning off.

From the RFS



> *6. Burning (hazard reduction burning)
> 
> *Hazard reduction burning is a method of removing ground litter and fine fuels by fire. Hazard reduction burning of vegetation is often used by land management agencies for broad area bush fire control, or to provide a fuel reduced buffer around urban areas.
> 
> ...


I presume that the bit you object to is getting permission for the burn off. If that was not the case we'd be seeing a lot of people leaving it all too late and more burn offs getting away and causing major bush fires.


----------



## Reen (Oct 17, 2013)

'

How scary is this?
I had burnt leavs on my balcony.
I'm about 30 or 40kls from the nearest fire but we have had smoke all around all day.
I have family in the Newcastle area and in the Lithgow area but thankfuly they are all safe.
Don't know exactly where all our Assies live but hope you are all safe. xx


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 17, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> [ Snip ]
> Will someone please tell Diwundrin that it is the fireys who control the hazard reduction programs, not the mythical greenies.


It won't be me ..... because it is green pressure groups and political preference deals that sees stupid "green" policies agreed to and enforced by the major political parties at all levels of government.  Australian greens are nutters .... check out your local tree lopping regulations.
 :aargh:


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> It won't be me ..... because it is green pressure groups and political preference deals that sees stupid "green" policies agreed to and enforced by the major political parties at all levels of government.  Australian greens are nutters .... check out your local tree lopping regulations.
> :aargh:


Tree lopping in my district - apply to council for permission with a good reason and all will be well.  Start tree lopping without permission and get a sharp rap over the knuckles. This has been the policy in my suburb for as long as I've lived here (47 years) and there were no such things as greenies then but there was a desire to have an attractive suburban landscape. Which it is.

I wish the same rules applied to the men who butcher the trees near the overhead wires. They've just gone through our street and on one side of the street the trees look like candidates for the para-olympics for bottle brushes.

Over the years we've removed 13 trees from our suburban block. Eight so that we could build the house. Three because of disease evidenced by fungus growing through the trunks and two that caused problems with the sewer main. The same thing has happened in the backyards around us and gradually a very old stand of eucalyptus trees has been disappearing. They do ask us to replant and I have planted two new eucalyptus and a wattle tree for the birds. We still have one of the original trees left and it towers over the house but is a very healthy tree. We wouldn't hesitate to get rid of it if it looked like falling on us and the council wouldn't argue either.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 17, 2013)

> This has been the policy in my suburb for as long as I've lived here (47 years)


Evidence please.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

Getting back to the topic - I posted an album of photos taken today from various vantage points around Sydney. I'll add more when I see them.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> Evidence please.


Actually, I've lived in the Bankstown council area since 1946. I grew up here and moved just a couple of suburbs away when we built our own house. It has always had a tree preservation policy but they are not unreasonable about it.

The next municipality - Canterbury - was much less tree conscious and it is now a wasteland of barren streets and home units. Very ugly.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 17, 2013)

.... and the Bankstown evidence that the council was not taken prisoner by the Greens at some point during your occupation?  
:wink:


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 17, 2013)

The Concord Council, as it was called then, only turned bright green around 30 years ago.  We had 3 different 'experts' from Council trying to get permission to knock over a huge Silky Oak that was riddled with borers and whose roots were heading for the swimming pool behind us and wrapped around the sewerage pipes in between.  It wasn't until a 15ft branch had dropped into the yard, and flattened shrubs and a garden seat, that the 3rd contingent arrived.  Even then he wasn't convinced until a small branch came off in his hand when he shinned up for a closer look.  

When it was cut the whole tree was the consistency of cork and it was a miracle of nature that it stood so long.  
Oh, and no, we weren't permitted to sue the council, or the 'experts, had it blown over and taken out the house behind us, they are exempt from prosecution for failure to issue permits.  aaaaghh!

Leafy suburbs look terrific,  but they can be a damned silly place to live sometimes.  Remember the damage bill in Turramurra after that wind storm?


We were getting smouldering leaves raining down from the Winmalee fires back in (I think) '93?  Have some photos of the red smoke etc but same thing as is happening now. I had the hose laid out ready and kept wetting down the  'wilderness' around that Silky Oak, all kinds of vines and stuff and I wasn't happy watching embers dropping into it.  I couldn't believe they could be still hot after travelling so far but there was a howling Westerly behind them that day.  That's why I'm a bit puzzled why these are so bad today, windy yes, but not the hot winds that usually trigger them off.

Canterbury was already old and had been built when your area was still scrub, not a fair comparison really.  Like protesting a lack of trees in the CBD.


----------



## JustBonee (Oct 17, 2013)

After reading this entire thread, I'm glad to be getting an education from all of you first hand. . and really sorry for the fires that threaten you and your peace of mind.   
 It seems your spring/summer mirrors ours in the US..  out of control fires and the big loss of natures beauty.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 17, 2013)

Yes Bonnie, luckily they don't overlap.  We hire some of those big orange fire bomber choppers of yours but I don't think they've arrived yet.  If they even still do that.
One was named 'Elvis' and we just loved that thing.  Another was the 'Georgia Peach' from memory.  They saved countless homes between them.

We've sent fire fighters over there to help out, and we've had American fire crews here to help us out.  They are quite different types of fires though so each were trained in the other's techniques.

The fires are a part of life, it's just the number and timing of them that has surprised everyone.


----------



## JustBonee (Oct 17, 2013)

Hope Elvis shows up!   Strength in numbers - everyone working together is very fortunate for all.
As time goes by,  seems this planet is being tested to the umpteenth degree!  
Stay safe everyone.


----------



## That Guy (Oct 17, 2013)

What was that He said about . . . fire the next time???


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> .... and the Bankstown evidence that the council was not taken prisoner by the Greens at some point during your occupation?
> :wink:



If they have, you wouldn't notice because nothing much has changed since 1947.
Bankstown has its quota of people who go out and weed the bush but most are getting on now. Our council is very business like and operates like a corporation. The Greens get very few votes in this electorate. We are nothing like Balmain.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

> Canterbury was already old and had been built when your area was still scrub, not a fair comparison really.  Like protesting a lack of trees in the CBD.


Yes, but Punchbowl (Canterbury municipality) wasn't and Lakemba was houses not streets full of home units without a tree in sight. Bankstown might not be posh and it's not Strathfield but it's not unattractive because it is not barren.

Yesterday Bankstown had very hot winds at 95 km/hr coming from the NW but overnight the temperature has dropped due to a southerly. 

For our American friends, here is a link to a photo gallery

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-17/nsw-bushfires-in-pictures/5030166


----------



## nan (Oct 17, 2013)

I feel so very sorry for those people that have lost everything in the fires, my heart goes out to them.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 17, 2013)

October has always been the start of our bushfire season.



> Bushfires may have been a dominant feature of the Australian outback for much longer than experts thought.


http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/raging-bushfires-started-60-million-years-ago.htm



> Bushfire has been part of the Australian landscape for millions of years  but while we consider it a threat, some of our flora and fauna depend  upon it.
> .......
> Since European settlement, the total amount of fire in the landscape has declined.
> 
> ...


http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-St...-Sciences/BushfireInAustralia.aspx#Historical


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 17, 2013)

I think that 62m years theory is stretching credibility.  The propensity for one or two species to make that adaptation isn't proving that the joint was on fire at the time.  Many mutations prove useless, eucalypts were just lucky that they had that trick to survive when they needed it.

There were many now extinct species of non fire resistant plants around  up until relatively recent times. Like the Wollomi Pine.   Like the palms in Palm Valley.  They are the remnants of wetter climate forest in what is now scrub and desert.  They aren't fire-proof.  He's just trying to get the Kooris off the hook as starting the process with fire-stick technology. 





> He warns against using fossilised pollen of just a few species to make  far-reaching conclusions about the spread of bushfires, and adds that  it's highly unlikely that bushfires were frequent 62 million years ago.  "At this period of time the whole of Australia was dense rainforest – a super wet environment," he says.
> 
> Robert  goes on to question the idea that unique regenerative ability of  eucalypts first evolved as an adaptation to fire. "It could have been  frost or drought or insect damage; there are all sorts of things that  damage foliage," he says.



Yes DB, October is the official start, but we've had 200 since early September, just sayin' it's started a bit early *this year*, and we don't usually get them all at once until around Jan/Feb.

The CSIRO article says it.  We are the foreigners here, not the fires.  The bush needs the fires to survive by regeneration, we need to learn that before building where we do. And wonder if doing environmental good deeds by planting fire bomb eucalypts in our gardens is  a good idea.

Fires that go through areas often, go through quickly, and cause little damage to the environment. 6 weeks later it's green again, 6 months later you'd never notice a fire had been through it at all.
 Areas that are prevented from regular firing build up more fuel to produce more intense fires that are not survivable by even the eucalypts.  

e.g. The Royal National Park fire a decade or so ago.  There were century old trees that died in that because regular burn offs had been stopped.  Some mental giant thought that a National Park's vegetation was different to the rest and would just stay pretty to look at forever.  Doh.

Also the Snowy Mtns National Park.  Greenies stopped them grazing cattle in it.  Stopped them burning off.=  More damaging fires than ever.

We can have 'nature' or we can have civilization and the houses and people that go with it.  Our type of civilization is not well suited to conditions here.  So it's it or us.  It's a big country.  Would it be such an unthinkable thing that the relatively tiny proportion of populated areas  be cleared of fire bomb eucalypts and planted with less volatile vegetation??   Sure it would change the 'Australianness' of the area, but then houses don't grow naturally here either. Right?  The fires could be let rip at leisure through the other regions without people being expected to risk their lives to save houses built in wrong places, in tinder boxes.

We also need to rethink our 'architecture'.  Some houses were alight when the trees weren't!  Embers are getting into roofs and that just shouldn't happen.


----------



## Fern (Oct 17, 2013)

> People in bush areas aren't allowed to clear trees back more than a few  metres from their houses any more! = The already burned out homes in  Springwood and Winmalee... again!  ...perhaps into the hundreds tonight.
> 
> The laws changed.  The Greenie types changed them.  ... and if only Greenie d***heads were indeed mythical!


I wondered about that. Any pictures we've seen, the trees are all around the house/s. Greenies don't have much common sense if any at all. 
The photos are frightening. I hope there is no loss of life this time.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

One man is dead and others are injured.
Today Springwood High School is being evacuated.



> *October fires worry regional businesses*
> 
> ABC Rural
> By     Sarina Locke
> ...



And here: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/rf...shfire-aftermath/story-fnii5s3y-1226742337608

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/rf...shfire-aftermath/story-fnii5s3y-1226742337608


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 17, 2013)

Time lapse of smoke across Sydney

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bwZplIk5M4


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 18, 2013)

Fern said:


> I wondered about that. Any pictures we've seen, the trees are all around the house/s. Greenies don't have much common sense if any at all. ........snip...
> .



As example of the insanity of it:  One property owner, a few years ago,  allowed logic to overrule his fear of authority and took the dozer to trees around his house despite being denied permission to do so.  He cleared it and left the ground bare and was duly hit with *$100,000 fine.* 

When the fires came through his was the only house in the area left standing.  

But the fine still stood!  He was fighting them in court over it but I lost track of how that went.  
It was an expensive point to prove, either way,  but he did prove it.

Looking at the burnt out houses now on TV with the trees still standing around them.  The trees still have leaves on them, dead leaves, but still on the trees. The fire fed on the fumes and just charred the trees and kept going. That's how gum trees survive. The gas causes a short intense burst of flame which starves itself of oxygen and keeps moving on leaving the tree charred but usually not continuing to burn.    But the houses are rubble and ash.  They aren't built that way. It burns slower and longer in houses.


The TV coverage is indulging in disaster porn now, showing the ruins and playing the same bits over and over and feeding on the victim's stories.

One interview was indicative of the speed it hit at though.  The family was prepared for a quick exit. They had clothes, photos, laptops, receipts etc all stacked near the door ready to go at short notice.  They only had time to grab what they could carry, get to the car and leave with the fire behind them.  There wasn't time to get back into the house to pick up the rest of the 'treasures'.  They lost the lot, same as almost everyone else in that street who thought they had plenty of time as it was still streets away.

Something else I've noticed.  Some completely gutted and collapsed houses are still surrounded by their gardens which look quite untouched.  
A dear neat little path with trimmed box hedges either side leads right up to where the front door was.  Why didn't the 'foreign' plants burn??
How smart are we on insisting on being 'environmentally friendly' and growing indigenous plants?? 

 Grevilleas are a lovely thing to grow for the birds to feed on but ever watch a Grevillea leaf burn, up close?.   I used to entertain myself for hours with the ones I swept up from under that Silky Oak (which isn't an Oak, it's a very big species of Grevillea) when I was a kid. Couldn't wait until burn off time just to watch those leaves do their thing. 
 Put dead one on a small fire, it wont curl up and go black like normal leaves, it will turn incandescent, like  a neon  bright fiery ghost of itself and then vanish in black ash. All over in  seconds.
  Not sure how fast the green ones burn but if you grow them make sure you sweep up those dead leaves.One of them is pretty, a pile of them doing that is not a good thing to happen next to the house, or worse, in the roof gutter.
  Let's just grow lots of Grevilleas for the birds in patches well away from houses eh?


We're getting better at bushfires though. People are getting the message to leave when they're told and learning that unless a house is already set up to resist embers with roof sprinklers,  and have no mulch built up against the walls then standing there with a garden hose to fight a bush fire is p*ssing into the hurricane.

Only one fatality, poor man had a heart attack trying to save his garden shed with buckets of water. 
 But it was a better result than many fires have had.  Only 2 firemen injured so far too.  May that low casualty rate continue.  No amount of money could pay them what they're worth.


----------



## TICA (Oct 18, 2013)

These fires were on our news today, scary scary pictures.  I hope everyone who lives in those areas or who have loved ones there come out of the devastation unharmed.


----------



## Fern (Oct 18, 2013)

Gum trees are notorious for 'dropping' branches in the heat of summer. I won't park my car under or near one let alone surround my house with them. I know the Kualas love them.
Government here bowed to pressure from the greenies so we also can get fined heavily if we cut down trees in areas that have been declared sacrosant.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 18, 2013)

TICA said:


> These fires were on our news today, scary scary pictures.  I hope everyone who lives in those areas or who have loved ones there come out of the devastation unharmed.



I have a daughter in law and two grandsons who live in the Blue Mountains but their area has not been affected at this stage but there is a long hot summer ahead yet. 

The latest fires have been characterised by loss of property rather than loss of life. We have learned important lessons from previous disasters. Fire is a natural consequence of this hot, dry continent, usually triggered by dry lightning but sadly also by careless smokers and occasionally by arsonists. People who live in fire prone areas are encouraged to have plans in place to protect their property and/or to abandon it and they are aided by volunteers and professional emergency workers. Government agencies are quick to react and public appeals are set up very quickly. The Salvation Army goes into action immediately, feeding evacuees and fire-fighters with the assistance of other community organisations.

With 30% of the fires area assessed for damage there are 81 homes confirmed as lost, many others badly damaged but it is expected that the number of houses lost will number in the hundreds. People are already planning to rebuild and claims have been lodged with the insurance companies.

These fires were characterised by their speed. We have had the hottest Winter on record and the driest. The amount of fuel on the ground is very high because our native vegetation adapts to drought by shedding bark, leaves and even branches. Without water to make it rot it only takes an ember carried by the wind to set it alight. The winds were very strong and hot two days ago. Today it is much cooler and calmer which gives the fire-fighters a chance to contain the fires but we expect hot conditions again tomorrow. It's not over yet.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 18, 2013)

It'll never be over Warri, we just have to adapt to it better and accept  that  "Give me a Home among the Gum Trees"*  is an iconic dream that we can't afford to indulge.

While it's super sad to see family's homes and possessions, and sometimes loved ones, taken out by fires we have to wonder how long they expect the rest of the population to happily wear the ever increasing costs of home insurance to cover the losses incurred by those who live dangerously??

If you build a house on a riverbank odds are you can't get flood insurance.  What about refusing, or at least putting a very high levee, on home insurance in fire prone areas too?  I can't remember a year the Blue Mtns didn't have some fire drama and looking at the aerial shots taken last night blind Freddy could see why.

For geographical reasons the towns are built along ridges totally surrounded by bush just bustin' to burn.  Looking down on them you can barely see the houses for yet more gum trees planted in the yards.  
Many houses in towns like Winmalee, Mt Vic etc are situated  like offerings placed on a funeral pyre, only waiting for a match aren't they?  Up there on top of the ridge with all the fuel downhill of them waiting to funnel the fire up.

Bugger the 'clean air' and the views, I wouldn't live there for quids.

Not all bushfires happen there, or that way, which brings me round to the point of the ramble...  sort of.

While watching The Drum last night I was presented with Jane Caro's somewhat hysterical take on the whole fire thing. 
 It's Climate Change!!! she shrieked.  When will the idiots realise that??  We MUST have a carbon tax!  WTF??   That woman needs therapy. 

 So what if it's climate change??  How the hell is a tax going to stop bush fires??   She, and the Greens, and other good intentionally motivated people are too focused on 'stopping' the unstoppable with  other people's money instead of looking at the problem as it stands and putting their efforts into adapting our lifestyles to the changing conditions instead.  

The Greens... don't like them much, is it noticeable?....  need to stop inflicting their own selfish need to 'live with nature' on others and apply it to reality.

We are a European/Western style society who's architecture and lifestyle reflect that origin.  To live that way safely we need 'European' conditions.

We either change to living underground or 'Europeanise' or at least 'urbanise' the landscapes around settled areas.  We can longer afford to have it both ways.

We need to put bare, or at least Eucalypt free,  firebreaks for at least a kilometre around towns.
 Councils need to make a 180 and ban any indigenous vegetation that grows over a metre high instead of encouraging it.
  They need to stop fining people for cutting Roman Candle Gum trees down. 

 We have 3 million square miles for them to grow in.  Those in desperate need of looking at one can leave town and find them anywhere out there, they don't need to live under one. Especially when their indulgence is paid for by not only higher insurance premiums to everyone else,  but more importantly, by the risks and efforts that volunteer and regular fire fighters put into 'saving' them.

Let's face it, Gums are a really crap tree as trees rate. 
 They are a sentimental icon to we born here.  The smell of them evokes fond memories and comforting emotions and a sense of Nationality.  But really, with a few exceptions they're not good for timber, they're full of borers, they emit toxins into the soil so nothing much else can grow anywhere near them,  they're too sparsely leaved to even make good shade!  
Oh yes......and they are doing their level best to kill us!.

They drop branches on us if we sit under them, and burn us out of 'their' Country as often as they can find reason to explode.

Yeah, I know, I wasn't called a 'soulless pragmatist' for nuthin',  but really those who are afraid of climate change should give a little thought to adaptation.  Holding on to how things were in the past and trying to keep them that way won't solve anything. Time to HTFU folks.

[/rant of the day]


*This clip is from the Steve Irwin tribute, brings tears to the eyes of Aussies, but then, so does bush fire smoke.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 18, 2013)

Diwundrin said:
			
		

> Let's face it, Gums are a really crap tree as trees rate.
> They are a sentimental icon to we born here.  The smell of them evokes fond memories and comforting emotions and a sense of Nationality.  But really, with a few exceptions they're not good for timber, they're full of borers, they emit toxins into the soil so nothing much else can grow anywhere near them,  they're too sparsely leaved to even make good shade!
> Oh yes......and they are doing their level best to kill us!.
> 
> They drop branches on us if we sit under them, and burn us out of 'their' Country as often as they can find reason to explode.


:rofl: You forgot to mention that they harbour deadly drop bears just waiting to lacerate us when we walk underneath them.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 18, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> :rofl: You forgot to mention that they harbour deadly drop bears just waiting to lacerate us when we walk underneath them.



Oh Sshshhhhh about them!  Don't scare the tourists. :lofl:


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 18, 2013)

Just posting this because it has some great pics, especially check out the one of the cricket match, near bottom of gallery. A great shot.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/gallery/pictures-nsw-bushfires


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 18, 2013)

Love the cricket match pics too and awed by the ominous sky above Sydney Uni. It looks like the apocalypse has arrived.

#17 is interesting in that the property seems to have had plenty of cleared space around it. For an average fire it would probably have been sufficient but conditions on Thursday were quite extreme.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 18, 2013)

Just clearing doesn't stop windblown embers getting in unfortunately, it needs to be a pretty comprehensive exercise all round to fire-proof a house. It also requires a good deal of luck judging by the pattern of which ones burn and which don't.  The only thing in common is gum trees closer than a kilometre to them.

How's this for the vagaries of fortune?  Hot enough to warp the steel fence just yards from the unsinged washing.  Who'da thought to go and stand under the clothes line for 'protection?'  (kidding)



> Washing was spared, but a home was destroyed when fire swept through Emma Parade at Winmalee in New South Wales.



Got 2 pics and can't delete on edit.  Deduct it from my weekly stuff-up quota.


----------



## Jillaroo (Oct 18, 2013)

Diwundrin said:


> Just posting this because it has some great pics, especially check out the one of the cricket match, near bottom of gallery. A great shot.
> http://www.sbs.com.au/news/gallery/pictures-nsw-bushfires



Just checked out these pics Joy, hard to believe all that devastation, i agree regarding the cricket ground


----------



## SeaBreeze (Oct 18, 2013)

Wildfires are so frightening, those photos are intense!  We've been having a lot of wildfires here too in summer since there's been drought conditions.  Scary when the sun is blocked out by smoke, experienced that just once by my house.  

Some years back they had to shut off all the swamp coolers and windows in the warehouse where I was working, so too much smoke wouldn't come inside.  Some employees were wearing face masks.  They almost shut down the plant, but the next day there was a shift in the wind in our favor.  Hoping everyone stays safe, those fires are too close for comfort.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 20, 2013)

Another few thousand are being warned to move out of the Blue Mountains area, they're expecting both of the worst fires to really gear up again today.  
The way the weather and wind forecasts are looking, it's possible that by around Wednesday they could join up and form a massive long front that could take out many of the towns on the way down into the outer Sydney suburbs.  Nothing much they can do about it, but fingers are crossed that scenario won't happen.

The State has declared emergency powers to authorise firefighters and Emergency Services to have police powers to order people out of dangerous areas. That's a better idea than letting idiots play Don Qixote until the last second and then expecting some volunteer to risk their life coming to rescue them.

There's only been one reported incident of looting so far.  People have put signs out,   'Thieves about! white dual-cab ute with toolbox in the back'  I wouldn't want to be driving one around there today, and the looters better hope the cops find them first.  Unfortunately that describes the vast majority of working vehicles used by just about everyone.

Remember our new PM, that red budgie smuggler wearing 'poser' that everyone here laughed about using volunteering as a surf life-saver, and volunteer fireman just as campaign photo opportunities? Our he-man version of Putin?

 Seems he did a 14 hour shift with his usual volunteer crew fighting the fires and not a single picture was taken and no one else, including the press, knew he was doing it until he finished his shift and went back to his job of running the joint. 

Can't imagine why he did that.  He's already won the election. No campaign for another 3 years.  No pay, no pictures.  Hey, he couldn't be the real deal could he??  Noooo surely not. He's a Right wing politician. 

 
Wonder how many Greens Senators he met there?


----------



## Jillaroo (Oct 20, 2013)

_The fire is 300kms wide , here is a news article about it, i wish everyone involved the best of luck and hope it doesn't take any more homes or lives._

http://www.news.com.au/national-new...-its-destruction/story-fnii5s3x-1226743469519


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 20, 2013)

Woke to the smell of smoke in my bedroom this morning, which for me is a real worry as I've had a couple or three fires in my kitchen over the years.
Sydney is covered in smokey haze today. We desperately need rain, and soon. Everything is just so dry ATM.

In my photo album I've posted a photo taken by my son in law yesterday showing the sun and the moon through the smoke.
And we are not very close. At least not close enough to be in any danger.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 20, 2013)

> Remember our new PM, that red budgie smuggler wearing 'poser' that everyone here laughed about using volunteering as a surf life-saver, and volunteer fireman just as campaign photo opportunities? Our he-man version of Putin?
> 
> Seems he did a 14 hour shift with his usual volunteer crew fighting the fires and not a single picture was taken and no one else, including the press, knew he was doing it until he finished his shift and went back to his job of running the joint.



The media is onto it and he will be on duty again next weekend.



> [h=1]Volunteer Abbott in the hot seat[/h]Andrew Probyn,
> The West AustralianOctober 21, 2013, 4:24 am
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 20, 2013)

I sympathize Warri, the smoke must be choking, will be for a while too.  Everything smelled of it for weeks after the 90's fires too.

There was a whiff of smoke up here yesterday. It was a rare overcast morning with no wind so the local fireys were probably making the most of it and doing a burn nearby. It was only for about an hour so they got it done and out okay.  Although it could have been the Kooris doing another 'tidy up'. 



Great photo.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 20, 2013)

The smoke is not a problem for me but three of my grand children are asthmatics but now that they are adults it doesn't seem to be as bad. It will be a problem for a lot of children though and also for elderly with emphysema and other breathing problems.


----------



## rkunsaw (Oct 21, 2013)

http://news.yahoo.com/australia-crews-brace-potential-mega-fire-011617916.html


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 21, 2013)

That article about sums it up Rky.  It went better than expected today, the weather gurus were wrong in a good way, much less windy than expected.  Hope they're wrong about Wednesday too, predicting 35C and 50+kph winds.

They've caught a few kids who lit the ones North of Newcastle, one 11 the rest around 14.  I really don't know what you can do about morons of any age.

There's a rumour that a Blue Mtns one was started by the army playing games in the scrub but... ??


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 21, 2013)

Interesting article Rkunsaw with interesting comments below it.

 Today (day 5) they are adopting the high risk policy of starting fires to link the two main ones under today's cooler conditions to avoid it happening tomorrow under worse ones. It all depends on the winds as to whether it will be controllable.

 No-one is talking about the possibility that the army started the biggest fire west of Sydney. It's much easier to froth over the actions of some young boys in the Hunter region to the north. The fires to the south are not thought to be arson at this stage and are either accident, cigarettes or spontaneous. There are many more fires across the state, some uncontrolled, that were started by dry lightning but where they don't threaten property they are just allowed to burn. Given enough time, property is protected by back burning but the Blue Mountains fires have just been too fast moving for all the properties to be saved.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 21, 2013)

Yes, some of those comments were very 'interesting', to a shrink.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2013)

Another bad day expected today.
 Meanwhile, it is politically incorrect to mention climate change or global warming right now because people have lost their homes so I'll just let this picture speak for itself


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 22, 2013)

So what are you suggesting Warri?  That bush fires be taxed??  Is that the secret trick that everyone is missing here?  
Is pointing at it, chanting Global Warming smugly, and taxing it's arse going to stop it burning every damned year since at least 40,000 BC! ??
Where should we send the bill?  

Are you still being hoodwinked into falling for the ETS con and greenie propaganda, like the rest of the self congratulatory saviours of the planet, so hard that you think that simply sacrificing a few bucks of someone else's profit to the gods of Government revenue and the UN  is the magic bullet to stop gum trees burning brightly?  Really?
OMG.  It's still all 'Tony Abbott's fault' isn't it??  You're not over that yet are you?  Goooood!  :rofl:

Nah that's not it is it?  You just couldn't resist a NLACGB moment. 



Money, mantras, and political ideology won't stop Climate Change.  Taxing an inert gas to avert a natural phenomenon is akin to having a priest bless a posy of garlic flowers to stop the Black Plague.  It may be a comforting gesture but it isn't addressing the problem. It's simply giving gullible people a false sense of security and smug satisfaction, and the political carpetbaggers and the 'greenpriests' a nice fat income stream. 
 It won't 'cure' it!

If you wanna dance to that argument again I'm on for it...  meet me on the Corner. 

   ... bring the old gang, they may enjoy another rumble.



.............

Back to topic.

The interstaters have arrived, around 800 extra volunteers, mainly Victorians, that's around 200 extra crews and equipment.  That gap in the weather has been a stroke of luck to allow the time for them to get there.

I remember how proud I was of those volunteer crews who had driven their fire trucks 22hrs non stop from as far as Adelaide to help out in the big Sydney fires back in '94.  Now I'm proud all over again.  Not that they aren't appreciated year round, but that 'extra mile' they go  in time of need is pretty special.

I have no idea how the US rural fire service is set up but ours, other than the professional, mainly urban based fire departments, is in the majority totally reliant on volunteers.  Ordinary Joe's who give their time and effort, and risk their lives in joining a local team, training for years on their own unpaid time, and answering the call whenever they're needed.  I don't know if the Government kicks in any funding, maybe they do, but not much.

Every piece of equipment they use, protective clothing they wear, and right on down to the sandwiches and tea they get on a break is down to donations from a grateful population.  Local businesses offer what services they can for free. I know relatives do some pro bono vehicle work for them in their engineering business.  They're restoring a 'junked'  truck back to serviceable with up to date equipment.  Their employees are working on it in their spare time and the rels are providing the workshop equipment and money.  That's how things still work in country towns.

One rural crew was featured on a TV news show last night.  A woman who looked a hundred but had to be at least 80 was training youngsters, and doing what else she could manage as often as she could be there.  She's been doing it for decades and sees no reason to stop.  One of the fire crew  is a gangly 19 yo kid.  He's the newby, he's only been in the team since he was 14.  
A lot of teenagers, male and female, are in those teams, most at the firefront, some in support roles.    Some are still in school, but the schools are all closed up there this week, many of the teachers are in the fire crews too. Along with retirees, tradesmen, butchers, bakers, and 'candlestick makers'.  Doesn't matter who you are, or what you do, if you're a volunteer 'firey' then you're there.

Very proud of these people, does it show?

Not to forget the SES (State Emergency Service) that works much the same way, some people are in both.  They specialise in quick response to disasters, throw tarps over roofless houses after storms and cut trees up to drag them out of lougerooms and off roads,  etc.  

Don't ask what we'd do without them, we simply couldn't do without them.


----------



## Jillaroo (Oct 22, 2013)

_Couldn't believe it yesterday when the publican of a pub who wanted to thank the firies for saving his pub by giving them free beer wasn't allowed, Pffft i think the law have changed their mind on that one and so they should, everyone else is giving to them why not the publican. Grrr_


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 22, 2013)

Didn't hear about that one, did some desk wallah have a brain snap or something?


----------



## Jillaroo (Oct 22, 2013)

_here's the remains of the story they are now back peddling and covering their tracks _

http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...r-saving-his-pub/story-fnii5s3x-1226744117603


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2013)

Here's to you Di

http://www.lalalaa.com/


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 22, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> Another bad day expected today.
> Meanwhile, it is politically incorrect to mention climate change or global warming right now because people have lost their homes so I'll just let this picture speak for itself


Warrigal, can you please explain for me - scientifically - exactly what has caused the current NSW bushfires and how it relates to climate change?


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

You know that I am not a climate scientist so I will use Christiana Figueres to speak for me.



> "But what is absolutely clear is the science is telling us that there are increasing heat waves in Asia, Europe, and Australia; that these will continue;  that they will continue in their intensity and in their frequency," Ms Figueres  said.
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...tony-abbott-20131022-2vxs5.html#ixzz2iWUXET4k




 Unlike our prime minister, I won't dismiss this senior UN official as "talking through her hat".


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 23, 2013)

> Here's to you Di
> 
> http://www.lalalaa.com/



Well, I suppose that's about as useful as flapping about like headless chooks and chanting climate change every time the wind shifts.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

Some references in this article to the sort of science that TA thinks is crap. 



> *What's been happening to fire weather?*
> 
> A study last year in the International Journal of Climatology looked at the FFDI data from 38 sites around Australia from 1973 to 2010. None of the sites showed a reduction in fire danger and 16 of them showed that fire weather had increased significantly. While the study was not set up to find a link between human-emissions and bushfires, the study said the trends were "consistent with projected impacts of climate change on FFDI".
> 
> ...


----------



## terra (Oct 23, 2013)

Breaking news... the Australian Army has just admitted to starting the blaze last week with ammunition & explosives training in the bush. 
 On the eve of a Total Fire Ban day, you think they would have known better.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

Can the insurance companies sue the army?


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 23, 2013)

Just voicing a few silly questions here, I left school young.  

How come these gurus never mention  '_the science_' which has found the quickest, cheapest and least damaging way to put out a fire is to  
smother it with CO2 ??

If the level of CO2 is rising in enough panic inciting degree to change the climate of the entire planet, then wouldn't the increased saturation level in the atmosphere also be contributing to having a dampening effect on fires?

Trees live on the stuff, if we lower the levels we'll be starving the trees.  Now that's not very kind is it?  .. seriously though, more CO2 would benefit those trees that the Greens won't let anyone chop down.  
So basically,have I got this right?   Greens are demanding more trees while also demanding a reduction of what they live on.  

If 60% of bushfires in OZ are caused by humans then are humans the real problem and should we should be taxing baby emitters to reduce the impacts of climate change in fire prone areas?

Or should we just send in a shrink to 'counsel' the AIF numb nut who was blowing things up in the tinder box a few hours before a total fire ban was imposed?  Perhaps an explanation that despite what his paperwork assures him is legal, fires don't burn by the clock!

... and some idiot suggested sending the Army in to fight the fires.  Nooooooo!


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

> How come these gurus never mention  '_the science_' which has found the quickest, cheapest and least damaging way to put out a fire is to smother it with CO2 ??


 There are two ways to put out a fire quickly. One is to cut off the oxygen supply, which is what a blast of CO2 does. You can get the same result with a blast of nitrogen or helium or any other gas that does not burn. Or you can use a fire-blanket. It all depends on whether you want to kill every living thing in the vicinity of the fire or not. No oxygen means no fire but it also means no life.

 The other way is to lower the temperature below ignition point, which is what a bucket of water does. Or a helicopter full of it.

 None of these methods are practical for wild fires. The helicopter helps though.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 23, 2013)

But but but Warri,  ... they aren't taxing nitrogen helium fire blankets or buckets of water.  Just sayin'


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

That's because none of them are green house gases.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 23, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> You know that I am not a climate scientist so I will use Christiana Figueres to speak for me.
> Unlike our prime minister, I won't dismiss this senior UN official as "talking through her hat".


There is not a scintilla of scientific evidence in that article Warrigal.  Can you explain the "clear link" ??  Why didn't she ??


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 23, 2013)

terra said:


> Breaking news... the Australian Army has just admitted to starting the blaze last week with ammunition & explosives training in the bush.
> On the eve of a Total Fire Ban day, you think they would have known better.



So, that's what caused it .... not global warming (now climate change) ??  I also heard about teenage arsonists.  

I knew there would be a rational explanation.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> There is not a scintilla of scientific evidence in that article Warrigal.  Can you explain the "clear link" ??  Why didn't she ??



See my next post https://www.seniorforums.com/showthread.php/2627-Oz-is-firing-up-early-this-year?p=41068#post41068 and follow the links.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 23, 2013)

Oh bloody spare me! Al Gore is lecturing us on how to 'do' bushfires!  He's got the unmitigated hide to tell our PM who's been fighting them for years how Al's climate change obsession is the reason for them!  Get off the bike Al, you are a flim flammin' con artist who has made millions out of flogging that panic inciting bullsh*t to the gullible as a marketing ploy for your Green technology investments.  Your 'proofs' are imaginary at best and plain fraud at worst.  

Climate change is a slow, inexorable fact of the nature of this planet and will take it's course without the need to panic over it.  These fires were no bigger, and no worse than any that have been occurring here for thousands of years.  

There's more of 'em because there are more people lighting them!  They are more 'damaging' because there are houses here to burn down now, there was no damage before settlement because there was nothing here to damage!

I'm not denying climate change, it's been doing that for billions of years,  but I'm outraged at those who make a profit out of the process by blowing it out of all proportion to scare people into giving them money.  Those like Al Gore who con people that they have '_the science_' and '_the answer_' and all that is required is for us to embrace their ' green religion' and  to donate copious cash to it in the mistaken belief that taxing an inert gas,  and buying Al's snake oil 'green' products will '*stop*' it.  

Regardless of who or what caused it, we, and in particular Al bloody Gore, can't STOP it.  We need to get over the silliness of pretending to find ways to stop it,  and concentrate our attention instead on those with a few good ideas on how to *adapt to it*.  Believe me, the money would be better spent!


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 23, 2013)

The worst has happened. A tiny water bomber plane has crashed.  I saw all the little crop dusters that had flown in and were lined up at Richmond air base and cheered their bravado, but worried at their capabilities as water bombers.  Maybe they were just dusting it with fire retardants but those little planes weren't built for fire fighting.

http://www.news.com.au/national/fir...s-near-ulladulla/story-fncynjr2-1226745835136


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 23, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> See my next post https://www.seniorforums.com/showthread.php/2627-Oz-is-firing-up-early-this-year?p=41068#post41068 and follow the links.


From the research ......


> Although these trends are consistent with projected impacts of climate  change on FFDI, *this study cannot separate the influence of climate  change, if any, with that of natural variability*. Copyright © 2012 Royal  Meteorological Society


Warrigal, our local bushfires are an emotional issue and an attempt has been made to link the fires with CO2.   There is no link .... except for the number of hysterical media reports.  

With the exception of increased population numbers, there is no evidence anywhere that modern day extreme weather events are worse in any way than those of the past.  In fact, there is ample evidence that weather events now are less extreme than *in the past (link)*.

You should keep Roger Pielke Jr's professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder button handy at all times:


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2013)

Thanks for the link but there are over 1000 pages and it starts with the inundation of the Nile valley.
I won't be digging through it all to get to colonial Australia up to 1900.

Actually, I just did a CTRL F search for Australia and find the usual anecdotal reports such as this:


> *1797 A.D. *In 1797 in New South Wales, _Australia_, there were heavy brush fires in January. Flinders and Bass experienced signs of drought at Bateman’s Bay and Western Port.



These are not very helpful when attempting to gauge whether conditions are worsening or remaining typical.
An important question like this does need some careful attention, not easy dismissal on ideological grounds.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 23, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> Thanks for the link but there are over 1000 pages and it starts with the inundation of the Nile valley.
> I won't be digging through it all to get to colonial Australia up to 1900.
> 
> Actually, I just did a CTRL F search for Australia and find the usual anecdotal reports such as this:
> ...


The historical bad weather link was not intended to convince you about Australia ..... it does, however, point out that "extreme weather" events are nothing new .... globally.  

Next time you are watching any documentary about anything that happened long ago, note the variability of the weather, for example, the ability - at times - to walk from continent to continent, etc.  (Nothing to do with fires. )

From the research you quoted......


> Although these trends are consistent with projected impacts of climate  change on FFDI, *this study cannot separate the influence of climate  change, if any, with that of natural variability*. Copyright © 2012 Royal  Meteorological Society


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 24, 2013)




----------



## Warrigal (Oct 24, 2013)

> Although these trends are consistent with projected impacts of climate  change on FFDI, *this study cannot separate the influence of climate  change, if any, with that of natural variability*. Copyright © 2012 Royal  Meteorological Society



Yes, I did see that. It is basically a non conclusion. I'm not sure what mechanism is available to separate the two, given that they are not easily distinguishable. However this chain is logical:

Extra heat is manifest in increased temperatures.
Higher temperatures cause increased desiccation and very dry soils.
Lack of moisture in the soil causes smaller plants to dry out and die. Larger plants drop leaves and bark.
Lack of rain results in increased fuel build up, especially if preceded by several wet seasons.
Extra heat plus extra fuel makes fires more likely.

Now, that chain may be nothing out of the ordinary but if we see it happening with increased frequency and with greater intensity and with greater areas of destruction, then it is reasonable to ask whether some other factor is at work. 

Not only reasonable, but also very important.

We are about to enter another el Nino phase and the consequences of that are bad enough. Why would we risk making these natural cycles more extreme for future generations?


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 24, 2013)

> Now, that chain may be nothing out of the ordinary but if we see it  happening with increased frequency and with greater intensity and with  greater areas of destruction, then it is reasonable to ask whether some  other factor is at work


OK .... where is the increased frequency, greater intensity and greater destruction ?  Is there anything other than the bleatings of the media or GoreAl to prove any of that?  

On the other hand, there is plenty to suggest that there is nothing new happening, anywhere.  For instance, a new paper, just published in Quaternary Science Reviews, finds four Alaskan glaciers are about the same size as during the Medieval Warm Period, supporting solar irradiance as the primary pacemaker for centennial-scale fluctuations of mid-latitude valley glaciers prior to the 20th century:   http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113003806
​

​


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 24, 2013)

I'm not at all concerned about the Medieval Warm Period, nor even the Little Ice Age. 
It's the future that concerns me. If it is a case of "que sera, sera" then so be it but if we as a species can moderate our behaviour for a better outcome then in the words of Capt Picard, "lay in a course" and "make it so".


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 24, 2013)

“You have to know the past to understand the present.”  Dr. Carl Sagan 
 "Study the past if you would define the future...." Confucius


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 24, 2013)

I can quote similar expressions



> *uniformitarianism**,*  in geology, the doctrine that existing processes acting in the same manner and with essentially the same intensity as at present are sufficient to account for all geologic change. Uniformitarianism posits that natural agents now at work on and within the Earth have operated with general uniformity through immensely long periods of time



Of course, James Hutton was not talking about impact of human activity on the landscape when he expressed this principle.

We seem to be arguing about different things, or at the very least, the same thing from different perspectives.
To clarify my point about the bush fires, I defer to Lenore Taylor who expresses it much better than I can.



> *Bushfires: Coalition deploys straw man against burning issue of climate change*
> 
> Government is desperate to keep bushfires and climate change apart for fear its emissions reduction policy will be found wanting.
> 
> ...


----------



## Jillaroo (Oct 24, 2013)

http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1864813/climate-change-raising-fire-risk/?cs=7


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 24, 2013)

Even if you are a committed true believer in AGW, please take some time to read some of the articles I point to below  .......  our current fires are nothing new, not more intense, ** not more frequent, not anything ..... they are just a fact of life in Australia and many other places.

**  unless you consider Green interference

Here is some research (pages and pages of it) from Trove on     historical occurrence of Australian bushfires in *September* and     *October*:

Trove:       Australian September Bushfires

TROVE:       Australian October Bushfires

Here is a (very) small extract:






    The link to climate change, to quote a very smart man, is "absolute     crap".  Some people are talking thru their hats.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 24, 2013)

[ramblerant]

Okay so the faithful are all clamouring that Tony Abbott kneel and worship the gods of Global Warming. 

What exactly is that supposed to prove, whether he does or not??  

What is the point of all this nyah nyah headline and cartoon posting??  What  conceivable difference does it make that he is of the opinion that the  panic hyperbole has overtaken the common sense approach of finding and  funding adaptation rather than empty gestures? 
 ... honestly now, so  what?  Just how far up the totem pole of world leaders do you think the clown is for his opinion to matter a damn?

 The election's done and dusted.... get...over...it.  This is a trivial personal politician hating thing, or is it? Maybe the climate thing really is thought about at that level, by people who can't be bothered to think deeper.

Would those terrified of climate change be so shallow as to settle for some  self satisfaction that they have forced someone to recant common sense and declare that they have had a Greenalluja epiphany and seen a vision of Al Gore bestowing Utopia upon the Earth??

Is that all it's about? Really?  omg.  They just want some miracle to happen to prove they were right to have had faith in '_the science_?'
But what are they 'right' about?  The same thing 'climate  skeptics' are 'right' about, that it will happen as it always has!

The  point many miss is that the argument isn't about whether climate will  change but over how long it will take and what we should do about  ADAPTING to it!

Do they think that embracing '_the science_' will be enough to stop it  or something?  Do they honestly trust a carbon tax to achieve that?   Doh.

That smoke that's probably still smothering Sydney.  How many industrial plants would it have taken to spew that much CO2 and pollutants into the air?  How much would those bushfires have to be taxed to force them to reduce their emissions?  Silly?... have to be to get the point across. 

Imagine that the Greenpriests get to run the joint and tax CO2 at a grand a tonne?  Would that stop the factory from emitting, or would it simply close the factory and clear the air?  Is that the way to 'save the planet'?  Would even zero human CO2 contribution reverse climate change? 
To believe that is cutely naive at best, and dangerously deluded at worst.  

Those who have bothered to think about climate change beyond the nyah nyah catchprases and trendiness must realise that this hyperbole that has been run along the lines of a religion,  is a con to keep the deeper ramifications from sending the world into a real, physical panic.  It's a control mechanism that gradually changes perceptions to accept things as 'good' that previously people would have gone to war over.  It's working well in some places.  We line up like robots to chant the greenechism and pretend to honour nature by dropping cans into the correct recycling bin.   But you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

When they've taxed manufacturing to a standstill, what is the next move?  C'mon, de beleeeevers have all '_the science_' on climate change, they must know what comes next.  No? Why?  Because climatologists get grants to 'prove' it's happening, they don't get paid to  know zot  about coping with it so we don't get the full story.

What if that 'miracle' happens and   all the windmills and mirrors  and green technology actually works, and we still have food and some degree of non polluting manufacturing, then what?  What if it gets hotter and drier anyway?  What if the gum trees keep exploding and the oceans still rise and drown us in our beds as foretold by the government funded  'prophets'??  

Gasp!!  What if prayer and a carbon tax don't STOP it!   aaaghh.

What's the fallback plan?  By the time all those whizzbang windmills are pounding out enough power to run industry, and that will take a few generations, if ever, then the population of the world will have almost doubled!  
Still got enough water to go around?  Windmills all too busy powering desalination plants to have enough power left over to run your plasma TV?   Still got a job?  Still got a flash car?  Still afford a roof over your head? 
 Double population = double consumers.  Things are gonna get expensive.

How committed are people to this climate change thing?  How 'fair dinkum' are they?  How far beyond the recycling bin have they ventured to think?

If you believe that some politically and financially motivated carbon tax con is as far as you need to think about it then you are in for a big saaarprise.  If you think that is the answer to reducing bush fire risk then you are crazy.  If you think the population won't increase faster than carbon emissions can be reduced then you are simply not paying attention.

Why diddle about?  If you want to stop people getting burnt out in the Blue Mtns every year, then stop people building houses in the Blue Mtns!    Or clear fell the gum trees and hope to C that some other form of vegetation can survive up  there instead.  That's 'climate action!'

If you want to halve carbon emissions then halve the population!  Who's gonna line up first to have their grandkids neutered?
That's how you stop 'anthropogenic climate change'!

 If climate activists are convinced that this climate phase is caused anthropogenically then why don't they advocate treating the cause instead of taxing the symptom?  If  humans caused it then 'stop' humans!  They're the ones 'emitting' that evil CO2.   Right!?  

Put up or shut up.

Too harsh?  Then batten down your hatches and carry on praying and taxing, but do yourselves a favour and stop believing that merely paying lip service to '_the science_' and denouncing skeptics/heretics is sufficient for you to contribute.

Let's hear how far you are really willing to go for your faith in '_the science_.'
[/ramblerant]

... yes it's Darth Vader day here.

Have a visitor imminent so any future absence from conflict on this front is no indication that I have ceased hostilities okay?


----------



## Phantom (Oct 24, 2013)

Amazing Footage
http://www.news.com.au/national/inc...he-nsw-bushfires/story-fncynjr2-1226746690722


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 24, 2013)

Yeah, yeah, Di.

I agree with you on one thing.
This whole debate is underpinned by politics.
If this were not true then real action would have been taken decades ago when it might have made a real difference.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> Yeah, yeah, Di.
> 
> I agree with you on one thing.
> This whole debate is underpinned by politics.
> If this were not true then real action would have been taken decades ago when it might have made a real difference.


  Were you advocating pumping more GHGs into the atmosphere - to keep us warm - in the late 1960s, early 1070s when _Time_ published this cover?


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

No. Were you ?


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

No.  But I expected more from a passionate environmentalist like you.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

In the late 60s and early 70s I hadn't even heard of the environment, let alone greenhouse gases.
I was still coming to grips with plate tectonics.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

Sorry Warrigal .... didn't know you'd had major dental work done so early in life.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

We didn't have fluoride when I was a little kid but we did have Violet Crumble Bars.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

Our Prime  Minister is a master of logic on this topic.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> Our Prime  Minister is a master of logic on this topic.


WOW !!   I bow to a superior intellect.  Such a brilliant argument.   :lofl:

Can I get a contact name so I can congratulate the author or will you pass on this (below) from my earlier post?  Thanks.


> Even if you are a committed true believer in AGW, please take some time  to read some of the articles I point to below  .......  our current  fires are nothing new, not more intense, ** not more frequent, not  anything ..... they are just a fact of life in Australia and many other  places.
> 
> **  unless you consider Green interference
> 
> ...


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

I've been trying to extract a series of dates from the newspaper extracts you have posted but I have no way of knowing how severe each reported fire was. Also some events seem to be reported twice.

 How many would compare to the fires singled out by our PM, for instance?

 I have graphed the dates he mentioned and it is a very interesting linear graph, pointing towards ever diminishing time gaps between major (as in catastrophic) fire events.

Paranoid ? No.
Fixated ? Perhaps.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 25, 2013)

Does the diminishing gaps between noteworthy fires  correlate to the increasing numbers of Green Councils and Government officials being elected?  Perhaps it's increasing at the inverse rate of areas which are not now permitted to be burnt off regularly??   Just wonderin'.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

Not really. It probably correlates to this trend.
This graph shows the number of record hot days per decade.
Note, not the number of hot days, not the number of very hot days, but the number of days that are record hot days i.e. the hottest on record  so far. After that the next record hot day must, by definition, be even hotter still.




Ref: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/cli...change-science-program/extreme-climate-events


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

Sorry, but Australian weather records are a mess, unreliable and ...... well, worthless.

Ken Stewart's audit:   
http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2012/03/13/near-enough-for-a-sheep-station/

 ... and some weather stations that have been continuously operating for a looooooooong time:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nOY5jaKJX...AAr0/mNn93KAyfLY/s1600-h/Screen+Captures1.jpg
  I can vouch for the graphs.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 25, 2013)

> Sorry, but Australian weather records are a mess, unreliable and ...... well, worthless.


That's your standard response to anything that does not agree with your ideology but you are happy to post anecdotal newspaper reports from colonial times. Go figure.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 25, 2013)

Ummmm.  Will houses built under gum trees burn down more or less often depending on who wins this World Graphbattle Championship?  Or would there be none burning down at all if they simply stopped building them under gum trees?

Japan just got splashed with another tsunami.  Now should we spend the next few years arguing what caused the apparent  increasing frequency of tsunamis relevant to the last millenium, or devise a plan to convince Japanese people to stop building at sea level?  

Which would be the more productive use of brain power and time?  
Mmmmm, lemme think.... thinking...thinking...thinking.... nup, have to get back to ya, can't find a graph.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 26, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> That's your standard response to anything that does not agree with your ideology but you are happy to post anecdotal newspaper reports from colonial times. Go figure.



And a very good response it was ....  

I have no ideology on climate:  I deal only with facts. And, what's wrong with anecdotal newspaper reports?   Not science, but certainly records.    

You too can download the long-term Australian temperature data and produce the graphs;    I did it for the Cape Otway Lighthouse station before my last post (just to be sure ).    A copy of the data is available here .....
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20066975/IDCJAC0010_090015_1800_Data.csv 
 ...... for you to check.  The other sites can be downloaded too, as monthly or daily entries.

Go on, have some fun ..... 

Get away from the short-term stations and those that are either  badly-sited or suffering from UHI, and the "hot Australia" story loses  credibility.   Same applies in the United States.

PS:  A few more facts:The US hurricane season looks like being the quietest in forty-five (45) years. ​Antarctic sea ice remains at historic highs.  
Arctic sea ice  is at the highest level for at least eight years.
All indications are for another bitter NH Winter.
The polar bears are fine.
Coral reefs are fine .... everywhere.
Al Gore will save the planet.
​
PPSS:  I know that you know that I'm wrong.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 26, 2013)

Diwundrin said:
			
		

> Japan just got splashed with another tsunami.  Now should we spend the next few years arguing what caused the apparent  increasing frequency of tsunamis relevant to the last millennium,


No, because earthquakes cause tsunamis and earthquakes are effects of the internal heat engine of the earth and nothing to do with human activity. Not building at sea level is not practical either but lessons are being learned about evacuations and disaster recovery.

We need to be similarly prepared for our particular weather/climate related disasters that will keep coming, with likely increased frequency and intensity.


----------



## Jillaroo (Oct 26, 2013)

_So getting back to the topic, how are the fires ? I haven't seen the news today_


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 26, 2013)

Still going, 'watch and act' status.  They're working on spotfires around property and letting them burn where it doesn't matter.  The fires won't go out until they get rained on.  Not point in putting them out in unpopulated areas anyway, they're burning off now what won't be able  burn when it gets hotter and harder to handle.  It's the good 'burn off' it desperately needs up there,  compliments of the military.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 26, 2013)

Donander said:
			
		

> You too can download the long-term Australian temperature data and produce the graphs;    I did it for the Cape Otway Lighthouse station before my last post (just to be sure ).    A copy of the data is available here .....
> https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/..._1800_Data.csv
> ...... for you to check.  The other sites can be downloaded too, as monthly or daily entries.
> 
> Go on, have some fun .....


I did have a go at it but there was so much data that I tended to lose concentration after a while and my ten year averages can't be relied on for total accuracy but it looked like I was getting something like a rough sine curve plotted from 15 ten year averages. What did you get ?


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 26, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> I did have a go at it but there was so much data that I tended to lose concentration after a while and my ten year averages can't be relied on for total accuracy but it looked like I was getting something like a rough sine curve plotted from 15 ten year averages. What did you get ?


I didn't try to refine the data in any way (unlike some scientists ... NLACGB ):








Even THAT rough is enough to show a that there is no trend visible, I think.  But is only max. temps.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 26, 2013)

I'll have another go at the ten year average maximums when I've got time.
I drew a line graph and it looked perplexing, to say the least.


----------



## terra (Oct 26, 2013)

This latest news, only days old,.. shows that the Arctic Ice is 51% more than last year.
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/23/51-growth-in-thick-arctic-ice-over-2012/



.... and it's the same as 70 years ago: 

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/09...-metres-thick-which-is-about-the-same-as-now/





methinks that Don has it right about global warming being a furphy !...


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 27, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> I'll have another go at the ten year average maximums when I've got time.
> I drew a line graph and it looked perplexing, to say the least.



I know exactly what you mean ... I might have another go sometime  with the monthly data because the daily stuff takes so long to draw with  even the slightest change.  Might pick another station or two.

I tried Wilcannia (Reid Street) - operational since 1881 - and asked to download all available data and got stuff starting in 1957.   I'll try again  .... but you will remember that I have often said Australia's weather records are crap.  

In the meantime, I put a linear trend line on my Cape Otway graph .... obviously not near any city or airport and obviously not getting hotter (if I got it right ):


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 27, 2013)

> In the meantime, I put a linear trend line on my Cape Otway graph ):


Did you draw it manually or use one of the statistical functions?

I've been having another go at the data attempting to separate out just one month (October, as it happens) and calculating averages per year and per 5 years. It's still very tedious and I'm not sure I've done the sorting properly so I'm not confident I'm processing properly.
I am learning a bit more about the power of Excel though and it's a good exercise.

I'm trying to tease out an XY graph of average max temperatures against time. I'm not there yet.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 27, 2013)

That graph looks like the skyline of Mecca.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 27, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> Did you draw it manually or use one of the statistical functions?
> 
> I've been having another go at the data attempting to separate out just one month (October, as it happens) and calculating averages per year and per 5 years. It's still very tedious and I'm not sure I've done the sorting properly so I'm not confident I'm processing properly.
> I am learning a bit more about the power of Excel though and it's a good exercise.
> ...



I used an internal Excel graph function Warrigal ..... 

PS:  How's the book coming?  

Re your comment "I'm not there yet",  with Excel, I'm sure nobody is ever "there"  ....   I gave up and watched some recorded shows.  Might have another go tomorrow.  Good luck with picking out months.  Why October specifically?


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 27, 2013)

October? No reason except that it has been in the news lately.
I'd have been better to pick January or December because of the sort functions. More convenient.

Wilcannia would be interesting to compare with Cape Otway - inland compared to coastal - but I'm not volunteering to do all the necessary processing.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 28, 2013)

Warrigal, the Wilcannia data appears to be available only as monthly data whereas the Cape Otway stuff was daily.  For some reason, I can't get a trend line to stick for Wilcannia but here is graph from the raw data:




I've had a go at manipulating the Otway data to extract monthly averages but Excel is fighting me.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 28, 2013)

Warrigal, I've just done Coonabarabran (inland again) .... still can't get a *#*&*%#** trendline:



What I've done so far seems to (at least visually) match the link in my earlier post.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nOY5jaKJX...AAr0/mNn93KAyfLY/s1600-h/Screen+Captures1.jpg


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 28, 2013)

Got any figures from Coober Pedy and Marble Bar?  They've always been nice warm spots to get excited about. 50+ happens a lot out there.

You two impress me no end.  I have to keep my head down in this one, numbers short my circuits out.


----------



## Warrigal (Oct 28, 2013)

We're just playing.
I've lost interest in the data already.
I may have to be goaded into completing the analysis.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 28, 2013)

You'd better hope he doesn't take that as a challenge. 



I was pleased to see tonight that somebody at least is looking at the practical side of living with the fires instead of arguing over what's causing them.  They're working on building codes, just as houses built in cyclone zones cost a lot more, so now will those built in fire prone areas.  They even mentioned restrictions on what goes into gardens... yea, about time! 

They've found the Marysville fire, among others,  was triggered by a short in the power lines so now it's turn off the power on extreme fire weather days... or bury all the power lines.  That will cost just a lazy 40 billion.  Mmmmm lemme think.  Think I'll buy shares in a generator company.

Anyway the fact remains that the fires have always been happening, the rate doesn't matter really, each house only burns down once whether they're lit up every year or every 5 or 10.  It doesn't matter what causes their frequency or what actually ignites them in the long run.  Surviving, mitigating damage, and adapting to them is all that matters and it's good to know that at least someone is working on that.


----------



## terra (Oct 28, 2013)

So true Di.... bushfires have been a part of this countrys' history long before the white man ever set foot here.  There was nobody to "fight" the fires a couple of hundred years ago and yet, the bush still survived.  
In days of old, the Aborigines actually started many blazes to flush out wildlife for their daily food supply.

The bush and landscape is now blackened by the recent bushfires, but come back in a few weeks time and you'll see a transformation from charred forest to glorious shade of fresh green growth.  Sometimes, natures way of stimulating new growth is to burn out the older growth & rubbish.

The burnt out houses ?.... maybe they should never have been built there that close to the bush in the first place.


----------



## dbeyat45 (Oct 28, 2013)

Warrigal said:


> We're just playing.
> I've lost interest in the data already.
> I may have to be goaded into completing the analysis.



I looked at Coober Pedy and they have data files for 1965-94 (probably to PO) and then 1994-present (Airport).  The BOM has been doing this shifting/closing business all over the country and any long term trend - in my humble opinion - whether warming *or cooling*, is impossible to discern.  To demonstrate the mess Asutralian records are in go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/stations/ and pick a few places to check.




Maybe Warrigal has lost interest because the regional records show no trends ???  Warrigal?


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 28, 2013)

Thank you Tezza. Someone at least gets the point.

What do you reckon about the people howling for compensation for spending a couple of nights in a Motel because they left their houses to chance and the volunteers?  They want to claim from the disaster fund even they didn't lose anything at all.   Really?? 

 I find it hard enough to summon sympathy for the ones who got burnt out let alone feel the need to compensate those who didn't.

I didn't light the fires. Nor did I coerce them into building a house in a tinder box.  To me they equate with those who buy beachfront properties and fence it off so the hoi poloi can't share their little patch of paradise.  Then they demand that those they fenced out contribute increased rates to the Council to pay for shoring up their eroding properties from the sea washing it away when a biggish storm crops up.   Get real.  Caveat Emptor... if you buy or build stupidly then pay the price.


----------



## Diwundrin (Oct 28, 2013)

I was thinking of moving to a place like Marble Bar, I like it hot, but the infrastructure is a bit lacking.  

That graph looks pretty steady, doesn't even register the 50+ days, maybe it's cooling off up there?


----------



## dbeyat45 (Nov 7, 2013)

*Common sense at last ....

Climate change and bushfires - you’re missing the point! *



We  need to get serious about land-use planning. It is not a very sexy  topic, it may not constitute the “great moral … challenge of our time”,  but reducing our vulnerability to natural disasters is important and  stands to benefit all Australians, directly or indirectly, now.  Regardless of what you might think about climate change.

http://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-bushfires-youre-missing-the-point-19649

Have I mentioned before that there is no link between bushfires and climate change?


----------



## Diwundrin (Nov 7, 2013)

Told ya before, tax 'em for building there, withdraw all insurance, or clear fell the eucalyptus scrub back a kilometre. Oh, and stop planting fire bombs in gardens!   Too easy!


----------



## dbeyat45 (Nov 7, 2013)

Better half was reading a gardening magazine this afternoon;  they recommended - slightly tongue in cheek - no combustible bush within a half hour's walk of your house.


----------



## Diwundrin (Nov 7, 2013)

Sounds to be compulsory reading!


----------

