# North American Weather - Is this Colder than usual?



## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/templine_nat_640x480_img.htm


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## Old Hipster (Oct 25, 2013)

Washington state here, we are normal for this time of year, our temps, but we have been saddled with fog for weeks now and it is going to hang around a few more days, or longer.

We were just taking about the weather yesterday and long range it is suppose to be cold and drier for us that usual this winter.


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## Steve (Oct 25, 2013)

I live up north.. Just on top of Lake Huron..
Naturally it is colder up here than some of the others in the USA but we are having rather seasonal temperatures at present..

Our daytime high is around the 2c to 5c mark while at night it drops down to the -2c to -6c mark..
We have already had some 3 to 5 cms of snow which has melted but is normal for this time of the year..


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## Jackie22 (Oct 25, 2013)

Here's an article on the 'colder than usual' winter...

http://grist.org/news/expect-a-colder-winter-thanks-to-arctic-ice-melt/

..scientist think it is due to global warming and the record breaking ice melt..makes sense to me.


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## Davey Jones (Oct 25, 2013)

Im in central Florida, FINALLY the cool weather from up north has arrived.
HIGH 75 LOW 55. Thats about the norm for us.


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## JustBonee (Oct 25, 2013)

Having cool, sunny fall weather down  here in Houston ... it probably won't last too long.  
Mornings are 50-60, and it's gets to around 75+  in the afternoons.  Feels cold as soon as the sun goes down. (thin blood )


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## That Guy (Oct 25, 2013)

Not yet . . .


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

Jackie22 said:


> Here's an article on the 'colder than usual' winter...
> http://grist.org/news/expect-a-colder-winter-thanks-to-arctic-ice-melt/
> ..scientist think it is due to global warming and the record breaking ice melt..makes sense to me.


Jackie, are you really twenty-two?  

The article you referenced was about last year when a huge Arctic storm dispersed a huge amount of floating ice.  This year, there has been a remarkable turnaround and things are back to (modern day) normal;  currently, there is more ice in the Arctic than at any time in (at least) eight years;  this is the Danish Meteorological Institute's graph:






At the other end of the planet, in the Antarctic, sea ice has been increasing since 1979 (the start of the satellite era) and is currently at record levels.  Scientists are baffled ........... go figure.


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## SifuPhil (Oct 25, 2013)

Hi folks - I'm sorry I didn't see this thread sooner but I was writing something prolific. 

Weather, weather, weather ... where to start? I guess the first thing I would say is that looking at one moment's data and trying to create a trend or historical commentary is just about impossible. Here in PA we've had late October temperatures that froze the proverbial teats off of the witches, but we've also had temps that forced us to turn the air conditioners on again. The only way to make comparisons would be to look at historical data.

But I won't be doing it since to me, weather falls under that oft-used category of "It Just Is".


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

TWHRider said:


> It is for my area.  Right now (6:15 AM) it's 28 F which is -2.2 C.  No I wouldn't know that without using a conversion chart - lol lol
> 
> I am to the right of Memphis on your map and we are running close to 20 F below normal for this time of year.  Next week we are supposed to be back up in the 70's F with the lows in the 50's F, which is what the high might be today.
> 
> ...


Thanks for those insights TWHRider.  I've learned a few more things this morning and was especially surprised to hear about Phil's Internet activity.  Can you get help in the States for that sort of thing?  

I found this reference to your "woolly bears":
http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-winter-weather-woolly-bear-caterpillars 

We never think about cold weather in my part of the world so it was interesting to read about the horses too.   The coldest recording I can find for this area is 2.4C ...... luxury.


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## Katybug (Oct 25, 2013)

For as long as I can remember here in the middle of NC, I'm aware summer is gone around Halloween.  We still have mostly 60+ degree mid-days, but nothing has changed.  The mornings and evening temps say it all, time to hibernate.


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## Sunny (Oct 25, 2013)

Here in the Washington, DC area, it's just about right for this time of year, around 50 - 55. Everybody is delighted with the crisp fall days. I think it's perfect.


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## Pappy (Oct 25, 2013)

70s today and low humidity. Absolutely perfect.

Sunny...was down in your area a couple weeks ago visiting my son in Columbia, MD. He works at Fort Mead.


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## Old Hipster (Oct 25, 2013)

Woo-frickity-hoo, we have actual clouds now and a bit of drizzle today, after about 3 weeks of fog, this is a welcome relief.


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 25, 2013)

Been doing some more reading and came across this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/if-new-york-freezes-in-january-blame-siberian-snow-now.html


> *If New York Freezes in January Blame Siberian Snow Now*
> 
> Snow falling over Siberia is raising the prospect for frigid temperatures in New York come January.
> Enlarge image
> ...



I've made a calendar entry to see what happens, just out of curiosity.​


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## Happyflowerlady (Oct 25, 2013)

It is much colder than usual here in northern Alabama, too, but supposed to be warming back up again. I have had tomatoes hang in there some years, almost up to Thanksgiving, but this year, that is not going to happen. 
A friend reported in August that there were Canadian geese in his neighbors pasture, and that was pretty early for them to be this far south.
As far as wooly caterpillars, the one that I saw was also all black. So,either TWH's caterpillar has a wandering habit, or there is more than one with no stripes this fall. 
However, when I was looking up the info on these, and their ability to predict cold winters, the article said that they have around a dozen bands, and some of them should be gold/brown, and some black. The more black bands, the colder the winter.
It also said that there is a version of the Woolley caterpillar that is ALL black, every year, so I am guessing that the ones we saw were probably the all black ones, since they had no gold bands at all.


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## Happyflowerlady (Oct 26, 2013)

OK, I misunderstood your description, TWHRider ! That sounds like a mild winter caterpillar then, since it was more golden brown than black. I have been watching for more of them, now that I have read that an all black one was just another color they came in, and only the striped ones are supposed to change colors with the winters. 
So, even though a leopard can't change its spots, and a tiger can't change its stripes, Wooley caterpillars can, and do.


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## Jackie22 (Oct 26, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> Jackie, are you really twenty-two?
> 
> The article you referenced was about last year when a huge Arctic storm dispersed a huge amount of floating ice.  This year, there has been a remarkable turnaround and things are back to (modern day) normal;  currently, there is more ice in the Arctic than at any time in (at least) eight years;  this is the Danish Meteorological Institute's graph:
> 
> ...



Sorry for posting a year old article, I don't think climate scientist are baffled at all, from what I read 97% of them are in agreement, as for the increase in sea ice, I've read that it has to do with the surface temperature and that the overall temperature of the world's oceans are at record highs and continue to rise at an alarming rate.

In Texas, the summers continue to get longer and hotter and the winters milder.

Anyway...I'll put my money on the 97% of climate scientist and 'no' I'm not 22, how old are you?


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## SifuPhil (Oct 26, 2013)

This un-retouched photo of a caterpillar in my backyard shows that it's probably going to be an early Christmas ...


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 26, 2013)

Jackie22 said:


> Sorry for posting a year old article, I don't think climate scientist are baffled at all, from what I read 97% of them are in agreement, as for the increase in sea ice, I've read that it has to do with the surface temperature and that the overall temperature of the world's oceans are at record highs and continue to rise at an alarming rate.
> 
> In Texas, the summers continue to get longer and hotter and the winters milder.
> 
> Anyway...I'll put my money on the 97% of climate scientist and 'no' I'm not 22, how old are you?


I'm not twenty-two either ... closer to seventy (but on the right side, for now).  

Jackie, the 97% figure is not worth commenting about .... it's another case of "say something often enough and it will become the truth".    There are thousands of scientists who either outright reject the anthropogenic theory of climate change/global warming or  express extreme doubts.   

Almost every week, scientists like Judith Curry ** are swinging towards skepticism _*because of lack of evidence*_.  Many former IPCC authors (eg, Richard Tol, Richard Lindzen, Chris Landsea) have done the same.

Signed:  Dbeyat45 (Chief Australian Sceptic, not "denier")  




**  Professor and Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology and President (co-owner) of Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).


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## Katybug (Oct 27, 2013)

SifuPhil said:


> This un-retouched photo of a caterpillar in my backyard shows that it's probably going to be an early Christmas ...
> 
> View attachment 3192



Unretouched huh?  Well, if you say so....lol  He sure is a cute lil thing.


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## Diwundrin (Oct 27, 2013)

You have some pretty dinky wildlife there.  I see now why they put 'cat' in front of erpillars.


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## SifuPhil (Oct 27, 2013)

Diwundrin said:


> You have some pretty dinky wildlife there.  I see now why they put 'cat' in front of erpillars.



We hit the other end of the spectrum as well, don't worry ...


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## Diwundrin (Oct 27, 2013)

Oh well, you're just showin' off now. 



The 'red leather' one is mildly disturbing, and of course there had to be a Marvel character represented but but but... what does that first one turn into??!!  Alien?


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## SifuPhil (Oct 27, 2013)

Diwundrin said:


> Oh well, you're just showin' off now.



Of course - it's what guys do in front of girls!



> The 'red leather' one is mildly disturbing, and of course there had to be a Marvel character represented but but but... what does that first one turn into??!!  Alien?



Red Leather is cool! Marvel character=LOL. 

The first one, I'm not sure. He looks like so many things - a loaf of bread with an attitude; _Sesame Street's_ Snuffleuppagus after too many years of meth abuse; or, just something the ancient Gods made when they were ripped on mead.


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## Diwundrin (Oct 27, 2013)

Okay, I'll go with that last one, sounds reasonable. 



... I'm off to see if I can get to sleep now... 

fftobed:


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## SeaBreeze (Oct 27, 2013)

Weather in Colorado is normal for this time of year, we had a few days this month that were cool with a tiny bit of snow, but the last couple of weeks have bee sunny and 60 F degree weather, typical for October.  Supposed to cool down on Monday.  About global warming...



> Regarding the debate over climate change, Rivero argued that the phenomenon is actually a naturally occurring process which is simply being used as a scare tactic to generate money in the form of carbon taxes.
> 
> He dismissed the concept that human-generated carbon dioxide is the cause of global warming and contended that one volcano releases "more CO2 everyday than all the cars in America."
> 
> ...


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## Diwundrin (Oct 27, 2013)

SB that quote is exactly the argument I've been trying to get across for years. That the Global Warming hyperbole is a massive revenue raising con!   I just wish I'd been able to put it as well, and as succinctly as Rivero. 

That is the best thing I've read in a long time.  Right down to the historical great cons of the long past below the main article.  Nothing's changed.

Warri??  you there?...  please read it, you might finally see what DB and I have really been arguing about all these years, not climate change, or even if it's 'real' or not,  but about the excuse it has been for con men to make money from the gullible.
 
Thank you SB that link is well and truly bookmarked!


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## Jackie22 (Oct 29, 2013)

http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm





http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/climate_... 

_Volcanic eruptions can enhance global warming by adding CO2 to the atmosphere. However, a far greater amount of CO2 is contributed to the atmosphere by human activities each year than by volcanic eruptions. Volcanoes contribute about 110 million tons/year, whereas other sources contribute about 10 billion tons/year. The small amount of global warming caused by eruption-generated greenhouse gases is offset by the far greater amount of global cooling caused by eruption-generated particles in the stratosphere (the haze effect). Greenhouse warming of the earth has been particularly evident since 1980. Without the cooling influence of such eruptions as El Chichon (1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (1991), described below, greenhouse warming would have been more pronounced._



_Comparison of CO2 emissions from volcanoes vs. human activities.
Scientists have calculated that volcanoes emit between about 130-230 million tonnes (145-255 million tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (Gerlach, 1999, 1992). This estimate includes both subaerial and submarine volcanoes, about in equal amounts. Emissions of CO2 by human activities, including fossil fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring, amount to about 22 billion tonnes per year (24 billion tons) < ( Marland, et al., 1998) - The reference gives the amount of released carbon (C), rather than CO2.>. *Human activities release more than 150 times the amount of CO2 emitted by volcanoes--the equivalent of nearly 17,000 additional volcanoes like Kilauea (Kilauea emits about 13.2 million tonnes/year)!*_

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Hazards/What/VolGas/volgas.ht...


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## rkunsaw (Oct 29, 2013)

Jackie22 said:


> http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So to save the earth we just need to eliminate humans??? 

If global warming ( renamed climate change) is caused by humans how did the earth go through so many climate changes over the billions of years before humans evolved? 

Al Gore has made millions from people who listen to the fear tactics rather than looking around and thinking for themselves.

Of course the climate is changing...it always has. You can learn more from history than from from the unknown future.


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 29, 2013)

Jackie, the volcanoes story is a straw man argument, meant to be refuted.  Nobody seriously discussing climate factors in volcanoes other than as short term "blips" on the long term landscape.

Anyone with a Facebook account ... this is worth checking out:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...843967.-2207520000.1382958238.&type=3&theater


Food for thought?


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## Jackie22 (Oct 29, 2013)

My post was to address SeaBreeze's article that states....

_"He dismissed the concept that human-generated carbon dioxide is the cause of global warming and contended that one volcano releases "more CO2 everyday than all the cars in America." 
_

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]My post states that...[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]Human activity contributes more CO2 than does volcanic activity.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica]Now as for what causes THIS climate change....you can believe whatever you want, but as I have stated before...I will put my money on the 97% of scientist data, not some right wing conspiracy radio hack.[/FONT]


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## That Guy (Oct 29, 2013)

Driving up the mountain to watch the volcano blow really adds to the CO2 . . .


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 29, 2013)

Jackie22 said:


> My post was to address SeaBreeze's article that states....
> 
> _"He dismissed the concept that human-generated carbon dioxide is the cause of global warming and contended that one volcano releases "more CO2 everyday than all the cars in America."
> _
> ...


Who is the "radio hack" ??


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## basefare (Oct 29, 2013)

All your weather map is showing is that a cool front is moving into the country. This time of year we get one after the other until winter settles in for the long haul. Some areas are cooler, some warmer. Nothing usual here, merely a change of seasons.


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## Jackie22 (Oct 30, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> Who is the "radio hack" ??



Michael Rivero....owns the website 'whatreallyhappened' and has a radio talk show...
he helped start the rumor about the 'murder of Vince Foster, that the Clintons were behind it'....he also came up with a monetary plan based on electricity....


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 30, 2013)

Jackie22 said:


> Michael Rivero....owns the website 'whatreallyhappened' and has a radio talk show...
> he helped start the rumor about the 'murder of Vince Foster, that the Clintons were behind it'....he also came up with a monetary plan based on electricity....



So, you're a Democrat Jackie?


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## Jackie22 (Oct 31, 2013)

dbeyat45 said:


> So, you're a Democrat Jackie?



....well yea, is there any doubt?  LOL, I'm that 3 headed monster Fox News tells you about...layful:


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## Katybug (Oct 31, 2013)

Jackie22 said:


> ....well yea, is there any doubt?  LOL, I'm that 3 headed monster Fox News tells you about...layful:



*HA!  Same thing they would call me!*


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## dbeyat45 (Oct 31, 2013)

What?  No Republicans on this forum ??    

Do you have a web address for a Republican forum?


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## SeaBreeze (Jan 30, 2014)

Global warming fraud...http://behindtheblack.com/behind-th...mentaries/the-fraud-in-global-warming-science


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## Diwundrin (Jan 30, 2014)

I've been calling fraud from day one.  I don't care about the climate changing, just the fraud  using it to make big money for those pushing the notion to the gullible that it's controllable if we pay them moneeeee, lotza moneeeee.  Give em the big bucks and they'll 'fix' it for us.   Yeah right.


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## Ina (Jan 30, 2014)

:dito:  Di. :shark:


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## Katybug (Jan 30, 2014)

Global warming scares me, as I'm sure it does most of us.  Our recent temps dispute that somewhat, at least the last few years of very mild winters.


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## Casper (Jan 30, 2014)

Diwundrin said:


> I've been calling fraud from day one.  I don't care about the climate changing, just the fraud  using it to make big money for those pushing the notion to the gullible that it's controllable if we pay them moneeeee, lotza moneeeee.  Give em the big bucks and they'll 'fix' it for us.   Yeah right.



:iagree:


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## dbeyat45 (Jan 30, 2014)

Katybug said:


> Global warming scares me, as I'm sure it does most of us.  Our recent temps dispute that somewhat, at least the last few years of very mild winters.



Politicians claiming they can fix it scares me, KB.  

I try to stick to peer-reviewed scientific papers when posting about climate but I'll refer this time to Wattsupwiththat.Com, a highly-regarded sceptical blog for an article - posted last week - that ask this question:

[h=2]When Did Global Warming Begin?[/h]http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/25/when-did-global-warming-begin/

The suggestion that twentieth century warming is unusual, faster, _worse than we thought_, etc is fanciful when you consider the known past:  Roman and Medieval Warm Periods and the Maunder Minimum.   The Arctic sea ice was supposed to have disappeared last year.  The Antarctic sea ice was supposed to be retreating but it's advancing and is currently still at the highest level for Summer since satellite records began.  There are no trends in tropical storms, tornadoes, wildfires, droughts, or floods.  Everything is perfectly normal when viewed on an historic basis.  In fact, most of the disasters the media love are on the decline if you care to read research by people who study such things (eg, University of Colorado). 

The current worry is that the proponents of anthropogenic warming cannot explain the current pause:  Seventeen (17) years and counting with no warming while carbon dioxide emissions has continued apace.  If the CO2 theory was correct, temperatures should have risen appreciably since 1997.  That they haven't, should be enough to falsify the theory and have scientists (and governments) going back to the drawing boards.

I have references to hundreds of scientific papers from many, many universities around the world that cast doubt on "the science" being settled.


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## dbeyat45 (Jan 30, 2014)

I kept this reference, from last October, just to see what happened:

[h=1]If New York Freezes in January Blame Siberian Snow Now[/h]    By Brian K. Sullivan  Oct 26, 2013 4:38 AM GMT+1000 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/if-new-york-freezes-in-january-blame-siberian-snow-now.html

Interesting.


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## LogicsHere (Jan 31, 2014)

It's not typical of southern/Metro NY. That's not to say that we haven't had our temps at zero or in the teens, but they did not last as long as they have this year.


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