# When will house prices come down?



## Robert59 (Oct 20, 2022)

House prices here in Tennessee is very high. Looking forward for prices to go down.


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## Tish (Oct 20, 2022)

I have no idea, over here the prices are falling.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 20, 2022)

House prices don’t fall in a vacuum …local economies crumbling is what brings down home prices .so that means job losses , pay cuts and all assets worth less.

maybe like 2008 banks will stop loaning money for mortgages


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## Alligatorob (Oct 20, 2022)

Robert59 said:


> When will house prices come down?


Who knows, I think they will and probably soon.  But I am almost always wrong about these things...  

The only sure thing is that nothing will stay the same, not for long.


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## JustDave (Oct 20, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> House prices don’t fall in a vacuum …local economies crumbling is what brings down home prices .so that means job losses , pay cuts and all assets worth less.
> 
> maybe like 2008 banks will stop loaning money for mortgages


Another reason house prices fall is because mortgage rates are high.  It only needs a rise of a couple percentage points to price some buyers out of the market.


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## Liberty (Oct 20, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> House prices don’t fall in a vacuum …local economies crumbling is what brings down home prices .so that means job losses , pay cuts and all assets worth less.
> 
> maybe like 2008 banks will stop loaning money for mortgages


Thanks to the bundling and credit default swaps of 2006-2008 bubble. Have a friend who was the the mortgage loaning biz back then.  He said they put people in homes that they knew would be foreclosed on in the near future. It was cheaper to buy a house then than it was to rent an apartment.

Laws have been changed - tightened big time -so hopefully that won't happen again.


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## Muskrat (Oct 20, 2022)

They are falling in Phoenix now. But…they had been escalating in price in the double digits for several years, and the phenomenally low interest rates made it ridiculously easy for people to get into even inflated priced homes. Now with interest rates closer to the 80’s the loan qualification process becomes harder.


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## Michael Z (Oct 20, 2022)

They have been falling in the St. Paul, MN area for a few months now. Prices were just ridiculous last spring. My son was trying to buy a house. He finally bought a townhouse a little out of the city. All the homes closer in were 100+ year old wrecks costing around 200k (or more).


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## squatting dog (Oct 20, 2022)

First started leveling off here in our area of Florida, now starting to come down. 3 weeks ago, 3-2 house's were selling for $350,000 and up and most were pending or sold. Today, some of the house's we were watching are now asking $299,000 or less.


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## Gary O' (Oct 20, 2022)

I'm not so sure they are 'coming down'
I think it may just be a correction from the latest crazy leaps in 'market value'


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## Don M. (Oct 20, 2022)

The general economy, inflation, and rising interest rates are making it harder for people to afford a mortgage.  But the lack of new home construction is keeping the supply of housing low, while demand continues to increase.  If, as the "experts" predict, we slide into a recession in 2023, that will have a marked impact on housing prices.


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## Jules (Oct 20, 2022)

Robert59 said:


> House prices here in Tennessee is very high. Looking forward for prices to go down.


I thought you were thinking of selling your house and moving into a retirement home to be around others.


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## rasmusjc (Oct 20, 2022)

Gary O' said:


> I'm not so sure they are 'coming down'
> I think it may just be a correction from the latest crazy leaps in 'market value'


According to the people I've been reading in and out of the market, I interpret their thinking to be:  1.  Prices are coming down in areas of the US, but it will eventually spread to all of the areas where people where moving to since 2019 (residential only).  2.  Realtors are beginning to see prices come down and you can get a cheaper houses, but if we buy now, our house values will still be falling further until the end of next year.  3.  Best lower prices could be seen at the end of 2023 or first half 2024.  4.  I've talked to some realtor friends who tell me potential buyers have evaporated here in DFW in just the past month.  Not a good situation for sellers.


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## David777 (Oct 20, 2022)

One aspect of the issue is the dominant media narrative is solidly in the camp of Wall Street and real estate corps whiners when they report news on housing costs.  They always make it sound as though falling housing costs are a horrible thing that must be eliminated.  They never report on how those costs, and world wide effects of our Neocon's proxy Ukraine War, are the MAJOR components and drivers of the current outrageous inflation.  

For the first time in about a month, I watched the morning Today NBC show for about a half hour.  And that is just how they spewed out today's news as decreasing housing values as a very bad thing while the increased mortgage rates are decreasing home prices.  Well dummy, isn't that why borrowing rates for the huge predatory financial corps have been raised up from the pandemic $0 zero was because of what they were doing that is skewering all we working class folks?


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## Alizerine (Oct 20, 2022)

Don M. said:


> The general economy, inflation, and rising interest rates are making it harder for people to afford a mortgage.  But the lack of new home construction is keeping the supply of housing low, while demand continues to increase.  If, as the "experts" predict, we slide into a recession in 2023, that will have a marked impact on housing prices.


You mentioned inflation so I am taking the opportunity to share this.
Watch: Chart-armed Katie Porter proves that corporate greed is the primary cause of inflation - Alternet.org


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## Alligatorob (Oct 20, 2022)

Alizerine said:


> You mentioned inflation so I am taking the opportunity to share this.
> Watch: Chart-armed Katie Porter proves that corporate greed is the primary cause of inflation - Alternet.org


I read the link and am not sure I completely agree with Ms. Porter.  She makes some valid points, but I believe does not get to the root of the problem.

I believe the base cause of inflation is the government deficit spending.  It puts more dollars into circulation with no more goods or services to spend them on, so of course prices go up.  A quote from the article:

_Equipped with one of her easy-to-read, data-filled posters, Porter got Konczal to admit that surging corporate profits are forcing American consumers to pay significantly more for goods and services._

I am sure much of corporate America supports the surplus spending and is taking maximum advantage of it, hence the higher profits.  However they could not get away with that had our government not handed out all those dollars.


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## dseag2 (Oct 20, 2022)

Home prices are already falling in over-inflated cities like Seattle.  We are now also seeing more real estate inventory on the market here in Dallas.  As the Fed has raised interest rates and mortgage interest rates have increased, there are fewer people in the market for homes.  The following article was on Marketwatch.

When will house prices drop? These economists say prepare for a ‘prolonged slowdown’ — and big declines in home values​Last Updated: Oct. 17, 2022 at 12:23 p.m. ETFirst Published: Oct. 10, 2022 at 10:47 a.m. ET
By 
Aarthi Swaminathan​

Most economists are forecasting home-price appreciation to slow, with others predicting deeper price drops
Mortgage rates are at multi-decade highs, making home ownership more expensive for Americans.​
The real-estate market is taking a beating, with mortgage rates surpassing 7%.

“Rates are still rising, and will continue to rise here on out,” Christine Cooper, chief U.S. economist and managing director at CoStar Group, told MarketWatch in an interview.
But with home prices continuing to be elevated, that has really hurt affordability, she added, and pushed buyers out, which will hurt home sales.

And “it’s going to continue until we’re gonna see some price declines,” Cooper said. “And we’re seeing signs already.” 
Sellers were holding out hope that the situation may improve, Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda Research, a housing market-research platform, told MarketWatch in an interview on the Barron’s Live podcast.
“What we’re hearing from the sellers’ side is that they definitely feel nervous that they’ve seen demand fall off,” Wolf said.

Builders and realtors initially thought that demand would slow, then recover, she added, but as rates continue to climb higher and consumers pull back, they’re seeing the writing on the wall.
In a recent survey by Fannie Mae FNMA, -2.06%, sentiment among home buyers dropped to the lowest level since 2011: 75% of respondents said that it’s a bad time to buy a home.
They’re saying “It’s not just a couple months, this may be a prolonged slowdown in the housing market,” Wolf said.
*Will home prices drop in 2023?*​Most economists are forecasting home-price appreciation to slow, and it has. Home prices, in fact, fell slightly on a month-over-month basis. 

But others are increasingly talking about how they’re expecting corrections of 5% to 10%.
The median price of an existing home was $389,500, as of August, the National Association of Realtors said.
Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics is expecting national home prices to fall 10% peak-to-trough, and by 20% if there is a recession. “Buckle in,” he wrote on Twitter TWTR, +1.18%.
“Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough,” he added. “Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”
‘Buckle in.’
— Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, on the expected fall in house prices
Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates, expects national home prices to fall 4% in 2023, and 5% in 2024.

One developer, Don Peebles, CEO of Peebles Corporation, is expecting home prices to fall 15 to 20% within the next 18 months, The Real Deal reported on Friday.
Goldman Sachs is expecting home prices to fall 5% to 10% from the peak. 

Wolf of Zonda expects a correction of 5% to 10%. 
“We think some markets will see a more dramatic drop — some of the markets that had a really massive run up,” Wolf explained. “But they don’t come down anywhere like the Great Recession.” 
Parts of the country like the Coachella Valley, Salt Lake City, parts of Denver, Boise, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Austin, all saw prices rise very sharply, she added. 

Cooper of CoStar said that she’s seeing prices fall not just in pandemic boomtowns but also in expensive markets like San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, and Seattle.
“There was a belief among investors and even among the development community that prices could only go up forever,” Wolf said, “and they had to build the homes because we’re so undersupplied.”
She added that there is a “limit to what people are either willing or able to pay.”


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## Ruthanne (Oct 20, 2022)

The year 2050 they will plummet.


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## palides2021 (Oct 20, 2022)

squatting dog said:


> First started leveling off here in our area of Florida, now starting to come down. 3 weeks ago, 3-2 house's were selling for $350,000 and up and most were pending or sold. Today, some of the house's we were watching are now asking $299,000 or less.


I believe it. Florida has been an up and down state for me with regards to real estate (at least in the Tampa Bay Area). We used to own property there, and bought it at an absurdly low rate in the 90s. Then prices went up a few years later, then back down, then up higher...then down....like a roller coaster...it was difficult to time it right to sell.


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## dseag2 (Oct 20, 2022)

rasmusjc said:


> According to the people I've been reading in and out of the market, I interpret their thinking to be:  1.  Prices are coming down in areas of the US, but it will eventually spread to all of the areas where people where moving to since 2019 (residential only).  2.  Realtors are beginning to see prices come down and you can get a cheaper houses, but if we buy now, our house values will still be falling further until the end of next year.  3.  Best lower prices could be seen at the end of 2023 or first half 2024.  4.  I've talked to some realtor friends who tell me potential buyers have evaporated here in DFW in just the past month.  Not a good situation for sellers.


It is not a good situation for sellers, but it is a good situation for those of us who intend to stay in our homes in the DFW area for years to come.  We've lived in our home for 16 years, and the rise in house prices has made our property taxes astronomical. The last house to sell in our neighborhood sold for more than twice what we paid for ours.  If we have no intention of selling, we are penalized.

I actually welcome the relief.  I drive through the Lakewood area of Dallas frequently, and in past months a For Sale sign would be in front of a house one day and then a Sold sign would be up within a few days.  Now the For Sale signs are staying in the yards.


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## rasmusjc (Oct 20, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> It is not a good situation for sellers, but it is a good situation for those of us who intend to stay in our homes in the DFW area for years to come.  We've lived in our home for 16 years, and the rise in house prices has made our property taxes astronomical. The last house to sell in our neighborhood sold for more than twice what we paid for ours.  If we have no intention of selling, we are penalized.
> 
> I actually welcome the relief.  I drive through the Lakewood area of Dallas frequently, and in past months a For Sale sign would be in front of a house one day and then a Sold sign would be up within a few days.  Now the For Sale signs are staying in the yards.


Well, we took advantage last year of the astronomical prices of homes in the North Texas area and sold our house on the way to downsizing.  We moved into this house at the beginning of this year...this house cost 1/3 of the price that we sold our home for, and property taxes are only 40% of what we were paying at the old house.  The difference helped a lot in shoring up our retirement funds.

BTW, as an aside, the person we sold our house to claimed he was just going to add on to the house and leave the structure intact.  For the fun of it, we went by our old house 2 months ago, and were blown away that everything was gone (leveled) with only the slab left (along with 4 trees removed that were older than the house, and the house was a total brick house, so it couldn't have been easy to demolish).  Oh well, that property is his problem now, we're enjoying being retired in this near the country house.


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## Robert59 (Oct 21, 2022)

Jules said:


> I thought you were thinking of selling your house and moving into a retirement home to be around others.


Yes I still might if I don't have to pay a real high rent. Would love to find a tiny house but cann't around here.


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## Robert59 (Oct 21, 2022)

rasmusjc said:


> Well, we took advantage last year of the astronomical prices of homes in the North Texas area and sold our house on the way to downsizing.  We moved into this house at the beginning of this year...this house cost 1/3 of the price that we sold our home for, and property taxes are only 40% of what we were paying at the old house.  The difference helped a lot in shoring up our retirement funds.
> 
> BTW, as an aside, the person we sold our house to claimed he was just going to add on to the house and leave the structure intact.  For the fun of it, we went by our old house 2 months ago, and were blown away that everything was gone (leveled) with only the slab left (along with 4 trees removed that were older than the house, and the house was a total brick house, so it couldn't have been easy to demolish).  Oh well, that property is his problem now, we're enjoying being retired in this near the country house.


What is your property taxes?


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## SeniorBen (Oct 21, 2022)

Alizerine said:


> You mentioned inflation so I am taking the opportunity to share this.
> Watch: Chart-armed Katie Porter proves that corporate greed is the primary cause of inflation - Alternet.org


A huge windfall profits tax would solve the problem of corporate greed causing inflation, but I doubt if it's even being considered. Maybe after the election somebody will propose it.


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## senior chef (Oct 21, 2022)

Some areas in SOME states the prices are already dropping. Other areas, the prices will continue to climb due to decent economy AND over-population.
2 examples: house prices in S.F. Bay area continue to climb., while prices in suburbs of New Orleans are dropping. If you look at the size of 2 quite similar house in those 2 areas, the avg price in Santa Rosa, CA is 1.5 million. A very similar house on the west bank of New Orleans, is only 350,000.

It is still possible to buy a house in the USA for $45,000. (fixer-upper)

Very much info on google.


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## SeniorBen (Oct 21, 2022)

Sheldon Whitehouse proposed a windfall profits tax
https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/n...in-profiteering-to-provide-relief-at-the-pump


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## JustDave (Oct 21, 2022)

Some of my friends like to marvel over the value of their property, especially during these inflationary times.  I've never been impressed though.  To me home values just seem more than they are worth.  I own my home.  If I sell it and buy another, it's just a lateral move.  I'm no more ahead or behind than I was, and that scenario holds true whether prices go up or down.  I think we need a recession, not because recessions are lovely, but because they keep the economy from running away.  Everyone likes a bubble, and then they get depressed when it bursts like it's not supposed to happen.  I don't like recessions, but I don't like bubbles either.


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## Liberty (Oct 21, 2022)

squatting dog said:


> First started leveling off here in our area of Florida, now starting to come down. 3 weeks ago, 3-2 house's were selling for $350,000 and up and most were pending or sold. Today, some of the house's we were watching are now asking $299,000 or less.


Isn't it hard to also get home owner's insurance in Florida as so many of the insurance companies are pulling out of the state?  Have a friend with a small villa on a lake that has paid $2,000 for her insurance and just got notification the new policy would be $3,000.  God bless those folks on Fort Myer's Beach or areas decimated by hurricane Ian.  They should retire all hurricanes that start with the letter "I".  We went through Ike in 2008 and it was not a cake walk.


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## rasmusjc (Oct 21, 2022)

Robert59 said:


> What is your property taxes?


It's around $5k/yr.  Previously, it was $12.5k/yr.  Both are 2100 sq.ft. houses.


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## palides2021 (Oct 21, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Isn't it hard to also get home owner's insurance in Florida as so many of the insurance companies are pulling out of the state?  Have a friend with a small villa on a lake that has paid $2,000 for her insurance and just got notification the new policy would be $3,000.  God bless those folks on Fort Myer's Beach or areas decimated by hurricane Ian.  They should retire all hurricanes that start with the letter "I".  We went through Ike in 2008 and it was not a cake walk.


If they still pay mortgage on that villa, insurance rates are higher. Also, flood insurance is high if live near water.


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## Teacher Terry (Oct 21, 2022)

Reno’s housing prices are going down which is good because they were ridiculous. We sold 18 months ago at the height and then I also bought a condo. The condo was half the price of the house.  

At the time I set a new high for the building paying over 53k more than the one that sold before. Before the buyer would take offers you had to agree that the seller was not lowering the price knowing that the condo wouldn’t appraise so you needed the money to make up the difference. The realtor tried to talk me out of paying so much. But I intend to die here so didn’t care as it had everything that was important to me in my price range. 

Within 8 months I could have sold for 50k more. Now however I could still get what I paid including realtor fees and closing costs. I am hoping prices keep declining so younger people have a chance to buy property. Part of the problem here is that the Californians sell at high prices and moving here our prices seem cheap so they drove the price of everything up.


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## helenbacque (Oct 21, 2022)

Prices will come down when people stop paying the higher prices.  

Property values are determined in one way only .. .... how much one person is willing to sell for and another is willing to pay on any given day.


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## Liberty (Oct 21, 2022)

palides2021 said:


> If they still pay mortgage on that villa, insurance rates are higher. Also, flood insurance is high if live near water.


They've got no mortgage - and almost everyone in Florida lives near some kind of water - Florida seems to be the state where they dig holes for lakes  and put in subdivisions around them...lol


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## Liberty (Oct 21, 2022)

Liberty said:


> They've got no mortgage - and almost everyone in Florida lives near some kind of water - Florida seems to be the state where they dig holes for lakes  and put in subdivisions around them...lol


Forgot to mention, they have had this insurance company for years and years.  So many insurance companies are pulling out of Florida.


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## Muskrat (Oct 21, 2022)

Well the investors in the phoenix area have sure cooled off. I used to get at least one call or text per day wanting to buy a house I owned….now we are down to perhaps one a week. Rents were driven up by the crazy market (I know because I have a couple rentals) and they are falling too. Welcome relief.


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## squatting dog (Oct 21, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Isn't it hard to also get home owner's insurance in Florida as so many of the insurance companies are pulling out of the state?  Have a friend with a small villa on a lake that has paid $2,000 for her insurance and just got notification the new policy would be $3,000.  God bless those folks on Fort Myer's Beach or areas decimated by hurricane Ian.  They should retire all hurricanes that start with the letter "I".  We went through Ike in 2008 and it was not a cake walk.


It isn't hard to get flood insurance... just expensive as all get out. 
Since the re-drawing of the flood zone maps, insurance has jumped a bunch. One needs to get hold of a flood zone map and check it over before jumping into buying a home here. 
Now, folks that already own a place are pretty much screwed because even if they have no mortgage, you have to decide if it's worth the risk.  
For the record, our flood insurance was an additional $572 per year... in addition to our normal insurance policy. ($3122)


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## dseag2 (Oct 21, 2022)

rasmusjc said:


> Well, we took advantage last year of the astronomical prices of homes in the North Texas area and sold our house on the way to downsizing.  We moved into this house at the beginning of this year...this house cost 1/3 of the price that we sold our home for, and property taxes are only 40% of what we were paying at the old house.  The difference helped a lot in shoring up our retirement funds.
> 
> BTW, as an aside, the person we sold our house to claimed he was just going to add on to the house and leave the structure intact.  For the fun of it, we went by our old house 2 months ago, and were blown away that everything was gone (leveled) with only the slab left (along with 4 trees removed that were older than the house, and the house was a total brick house, so it couldn't have been easy to demolish).  Oh well, that property is his problem now, we're enjoying being retired in this near the country house.


You made a great decision!  I have often thought about downsizing, but during the real estate boom there was nothing smaller that was available in our area.  If it went on the market, it either sold immediately or was torn down.  We also love our neighborhood.

I went through a similar situation to yours with the house I grew up in.  I grew up in a ranch-style house in Tampa, FL on a canal off the gulf of Mexico.  There were many who moved into the neighborhood while I was there and added second stories onto their houses.  My parents sold in 1996.  Their house was immaculate and had a glassed-in sun porch that overlooked the water.  
I went back to visit in the mid 2000's.  Ours was the only house that had been torn down and was replaced with a "McMansion" that barely fit on the lot.  It was a big, gaudy Mediterranean style house that stood out like a sore thumb among the stucco ranches.


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## Remy (Oct 23, 2022)

My agent, who I talked to Friday on my lunch break says things are softening. I'm not sure I believe it. That place I was kind of interested in looking at was pending when I talked to her. She also said the mobile home park rents are going up. They can only raise the rents so much on current residents but are jacking it up for new. Always the greed.


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## Remy (Oct 23, 2022)

JustDave said:


> Some of my friends like to marvel over the value of their property, especially during these inflationary times.  I've never been impressed though.  To me home values just seem more than they are worth.  I own my home.  If I sell it and buy another, it's just a lateral move.  I'm no more ahead or behind than I was, and that scenario holds true whether prices go up or down.  I think we need a recession, not because recessions are lovely, but because they keep the economy from running away.  Everyone likes a bubble, and then they get depressed when it bursts like it's not supposed to happen.  I don't like recessions, but I don't like bubbles either.


I agree with this so much. I bought that house I owned in 2001 and of coarse values kept going up. Of coarse I waited and sold in 2009 after prices started to tank. But I never refinanced, didn't use the house like a bank account I could draw from. And that's what people did. I heard stories of people losing their homes because they did refinance and got into these nutty loans.


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## Aneeda72 (Oct 23, 2022)

Don M. said:


> The general economy, inflation, and rising interest rates are making it harder for people to afford a mortgage.  But the lack of new home construction is keeping the supply of housing low, while demand continues to increase.  If, as the "experts" predict, we slide into a recession in 2023, that will have a marked impact on housing prices.


I agree.

When the recession hits prices will fall.  Prices are extremely high in our area, Utah, and just starting to drop because of interest rates.  Plus the foreclosures will start soon as well.  Those people who bought expensive houses using variable rates are going to be on real trouble soon.

As interest rates rise, people will not be able to afford their house payments and they will put them on the market to try and avoid foreclosure.  There are a great many houses for sale right now.  Before a house would sell on 3/4 days.  Now I see houses for sale for 90 days or more.

There is a house I would like to buy and they have dropped the price and it’s in “our” preferred area; but it’s still way too expensive.  Even if it goes down more in price, I am not sure I should buy a house now since we are 76 years old.


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## Alligatorob (Oct 23, 2022)

dseag2 said:


> It is not a good situation for sellers, but it is a good situation for those of us who intend to stay in our homes in the DFW area for years to come.


Yep, if you own your home and plan to stay in it pricing doesn't matter much, up or down.  Except that it could impact your property taxes.


Liberty said:


> They should retire all hurricanes that start with the letter "I". We went through Ike in 2008 and it was not a cake walk.


Good point, I remember Hurricane Ivan, 2004.  Had a cousin who had just bought in Pensacola and moved in 2 weeks before it.  Not long afterwards he moved inland.  Taking out the I-10 bridge over Escambia Bay was impressive.


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## Liberty (Oct 24, 2022)

Alligatorob said:


> Yep, if you own your home and plan to stay in it pricing doesn't matter much, up or down.  Except that it could impact your property taxes.
> 
> Good point, I remember Hurricane Ivan, 2004.  Had a cousin who had just bought in Pensacola and moved in 2 weeks before it.  Not long afterwards he moved inland.  Taking out the I-10 bridge over Escambia Bay was impressive.


We lost 40 mostly huge trees in Ike - you couldn't walk 6 feet in front of our house, on our driveway without tripping over fallen tree carcasses. Hub is a fire commissioner and the fire dept. went throug h 2 or 3 chain saws trying to clear the way down our road to get to the house.  They finally 
made it.  Out of power for 11 days.  Ian looked a lot like Ike on the radar - taking up most of the gulf on its way in.  There are hurricanes and then there are HURRICANES!

Thank heavens we don't have any where near as many as Florida or Louisiana has, but one of those "I" ones counts for at least  2 or 3 of the baby canes.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 27, 2022)

My son has been looking for months in westchester .

The only houses falling in price are the same listed houses that were undesirable and didn’t sell even before rates soared …

Homes are not like stocks ..there can be 20 homes for sale but the only one that counts is the one my wife likes .

Desirable homes are selling in a day or two at prices above bank appraisals for cash


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