# 2020 Stocks Start Off With A Nice Gain.



## fmdog44 (Jan 2, 2020)

The stock market start off with a bang today. Here's hoping it's a good money year for all. 2019 was a gift.


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## street (Jan 2, 2020)

^ >>> Yep sure was a record year.  Like you said today was another all time high.


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## mathjak107 (Jan 4, 2020)

gold and long term treasury bonds had an amazing 2 days . stocks not so much so far. lets see what next week brings


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## Don M. (Jan 4, 2020)

I'm amazed at the strength of this Bull market....and wonder how much longer it can last.  The financial news "analysts" predictions are all over the place, but most seem to agree that this market will continue to remain positive until the election season ramps up.  I hope they are right.


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## mathjak107 (Jan 4, 2020)

Don M. said:


> I'm amazed at the strength of this Bull market....and wonder how much longer it can last.  The financial news "analysts" predictions are all over the place, but most seem to agree that this market will continue to remain positive until the election season ramps up.  I hope they are right.


 
Bull markets have never ended with so much pessimism


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## OneEyedDiva (Jan 7, 2020)

It's fun to watch investments rise in value. My portfolio's return was 22.8% last year.  But realistically I know what goes up must come down so so it's not a matter of *if *a bear market will start but when.  Lord knows "they" have been predicting it long enough. I never panic because my investments hold up well even in down markets and I don't need to touch them anyway.


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## mathjak107 (Jan 8, 2020)

the cycles are all part of the deal ..but there are portfolios that plan for these dips . lots of all weather portfolios out there that make money in good and bad times. there are four major economic outcomes .

recession 
depression
prosperity
high inflation .

conventional portfolios are weighted only for prosperity to do well .. all weather make money in all 4 parts


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## Knight (Feb 8, 2020)

Glad my wife didn't listen to me. Back in June of 2010 she was looking for a stock to add to her self directed IRA portfolio. She bought 500 shares of Tesla at the IPO offering. I kept telling her that she should have bought something with a dividend reinvestment option. Over the years Tesla stock increased in value I thought she should jump on a nice gain but nooooo she wasn't ready. Last Monday the 3rd. she was ready and sold @$902.00 a share. 

I like the 2020 stock market


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## oldmontana (Feb 8, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> It's fun to watch investments rise in value. My portfolio's return was 22.8% last year.  But realistically I know what goes up must come down so so it's not a matter of *if *a bear market will start but when.  Lord knows "they" have been predicting it long enough. I never panic because my investments hold up well even in down markets and I don't need to touch them anyway.


It's been great and with the stocks we own and the income we get from them I do not worry as the dividends will keep coming or go up.    I just enjoyed how ell we have done the past three years...I have not been that good.


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## Gardenlover (Feb 8, 2020)

It's all just paper until you have the gold in hand.


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 8, 2020)

Knight said:


> Glad my wife didn't listen to me. Back in June of 2010 she was looking for a stock to add to her self directed IRA portfolio. She bought 500 shares of Tesla at the IPO offering. I kept telling her that she should have bought something with a dividend reinvestment option. Over the years Tesla stock increased in value I thought she should jump on a nice gain but nooooo she wasn't ready. Last Monday the 3rd. she was ready and sold @$902.00 a share.
> 
> I like the 2020 stock market


Do you remember the price per share when she bought the stock Knight?


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## Catlady (Feb 8, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Do you remember the price per share when she bought the stock Knight?



Diva, I just looked it up, TSLA IPO was on 6/29/10 at $17.

Great for Knight's wife, she bought at the low and sold at the high.  Great timing!   Me, I bought at $185 last year, and sold at $435 last month, and then was kicking my ass when it went to $980!   Just glad it was only 5 shares.  LOL   The Arabians sold last month before the big rally, they really have had regrets since they lost billions in profit.  They only kept 39k shares.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 9, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> It's all just paper until you have the gold in hand.


Actually that couldn’t be more wrong .... it is all your money at any point in time ...you just choose to keep the money in play each day either in the same or different investments .

Even cash varies as inflation eats away at your purchasing power .....

So never think losses or gains are only on paper , there is no such thing ....in fact my draw each year is based on portfolio value .

It is no different than working a job on commission where your income varies .


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 9, 2020)

I have to agree with @Gardenlover and Aesop.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 9, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> I have to agree with @Gardenlover and Aesop.


....there is nothing that does not have its value change or have risk , not gold ,not cash ...it all varies because of either markets ,rates or inflation making its purchasing power change..it never ends until you die... in fact your little article says exactly that ...all you have at any point is what you have , good or bad ...the fact you didn’t sell does not mean an investment will ever come back ,,, nor does A gain ever mean it will stay that way .....the fact is all you have is what something is worth at that moment..... thanks for making my point because that is exactly what that blurb says .....all you have is what you have at any point in time .....

how about the  high inflation 1970’s , where as soon as our cash hit the bank it was worth less then the day before.

or as happened to me our money market went bust in 2008 and we lost money in a cash instrument.

why do you think it is that portfolio value that is used to set retirement safe withdrawal rates .
state estate taxes are based on portfolio value ...want an asset based mortgage  ? It is based on portfolio value ... net worth ? Portfolio value once again ..


if anyone does not understand there is no such thing as a loss or gain only on paper my opinion is they should not be investors because that logic will eventually hurt them


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## oldmontana (Feb 9, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> It's all just paper until you have the gold in hand.


I have made a lot of money thanks to what you call paper.  I could have used that money to but gold.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 9, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> I have made a lot of money thanks to what you call paper.  I could have used that money to but gold.


For once we agree...

we take whatever is on paper and swap it for more investments on paper and those values are our values at any point in time ..they just may change for better or worse but the process never ends as inflation always alters our value’s purchasing power even as cash


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## retiredtraveler (Feb 9, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> It's all just paper until you have the gold in hand.


It's not even paper any longer. Just electrons............


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## CarolfromTX (Feb 9, 2020)

Gardenlover said:


> It's all just paper until you have the gold in hand.



Ha! I have a funny story about that. Some background: when we're traveling and go out to lunch, we usually have just water, because -- good grief! -- even in a fast food joint, a soda can be $2.50. And 50 years of being frugal is hard to change. So we were in a little deli type restaurant in Houston, and I'm studying the menu, and Dave is looking at his phone and crowing over the state of the market and our IRA's. So I said something like, "Great, but what does that mean to me now? It's all on paper!" And he says, "Well, what do you want?" So I'm looking at the menu and I say, "I want a fountain drink!" LOL! So now, if the market is up, I get my iced tea, no questions asked. 

But seriously, We've had great returns for a couple years now. I heard an economist say that a market like this doesn't die on it's own; something has to kill it. Made sense to me.


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## Knight (Feb 9, 2020)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Do you remember the price per share when she bought the stock Knight?


She bought when the IPO opened @ $17.00 a share


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## Catlady (Feb 10, 2020)

Knight said:


> She bought when the IPO opened @ $17.00 a share


@Knight -  Is your wife planning to buy the SpaceX spinoff Starlink?  SpaceX has been putting more than 240 satellites in orbit for internet, it will provide internet for hard to service rural areas.  I'm planning to buy as many shares as I can afford.  There's a rumor the IPO will come out soon, I heard Thursday, don't know if it's true.

Okay, this article says the IPO is a few years out.  Oh, well!
https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/06/s...ipo-for-starlink-satellite-internet-business/

This one says the IPO is mid 2020.  Ay, ay, ay, whom to believe!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4322853-anticipate-buying-vaunted-starlink-ipo-spacex-spin-out


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## Duster (Feb 10, 2020)

Thanks for the tip, Catlady!  I'm always looking for new stock leads.


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## Catlady (Feb 10, 2020)

Duster said:


> Thanks for the tip, Catlady!  I'm always looking for new stock leads.


The info seems to be all over the place, I don't know who to believe.  It does say that eventually there will be 42,000 satellites up there, each about the size of a pizza box.  Astronomists are angry and probably plan to fight it.  

Starlink is working to offer internet service to customers, via its satellites orbiting in space, as early as this summer.

https://news.sellorbuyhomefast.com/...kely-to-spin-off-ipo-report-business-insider/


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## Catlady (Feb 10, 2020)

@Duster -  I'm always looking for the next winner, sometimes I do good and other times I fall on my face and bite the dust.  LOL  Hey, it's part of the fun, it keeps my blood pumping.     

In January 2018 I plunked down $20k for 1000 shares of GBTC, a sort of ETF of Bitcoin, greedily thinking I'd be a millionaire.  Then it went down to $3000 and now it's worth only about $9700.  Ouch!  I'm still hoping, though, whatever happens I'm going down with the ship or rise high above the financial waters.  The halving is coming in May, maybe things will get better after that.  I can only hope.  I've noticed when the stocks go down, Bitcoin goes up and so does GBTC.


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## Duster (Feb 10, 2020)

@Catlady -Thanks for the link, too!  I always do my due diligence before investing in a new stock. Then I watch it for a time. Starlink might be worth a gamble when it IPOs, since it looks so promising. 
The technology to beam high speed internet service almost anywhere is simply mind blowing!  If Musk decides to go public with Starlink, investing in it goes along with advice from my mentor to invest in stock that is an up and coming technology.
Yes, you win some and you lose some.  That come with the territory.  The big gains are mainly for those bold enough to take risks.
Good Luck with all of your investments.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 11, 2020)

Catlady said:


> @Duster -  I'm always looking for the next winner, sometimes I do good and other times I fall on my face and bite the dust.  LOL  Hey, it's part of the fun, it keeps my blood pumping.
> 
> In January 2018 I plunked down $20k for 1000 shares of GBTC, a sort of ETF of Bitcoin, greedily thinking I'd be a millionaire.  Then it went down to $3000 and now it's worth only about $9700.  Ouch!  I'm still hoping, though, whatever happens I'm going down with the ship or rise high above the financial waters.  The halving is coming in May, maybe things will get better after that.  I can only hope.  I've noticed when the stocks go down, Bitcoin goes up and so does GBTC.



i trade gbtc for quick profits but i wont hold it .. it has crazy volatility .


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## Duster (Feb 11, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> i trade gbtc for quick profits but i wont hold it .. it has crazy volatility .


I'm a little wary of cryptocurrencies. I know some people have done well with them.
I'm totally invested in Canadian MJ stock.  I need to hold CGC until Fridays' earnings report.  It's before market. They wouldn't ruin every ones' Valentine's day with a negative report, would they?  
I am planning to diversify into another sector.  My investments need to show some gains, so I can sell.


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## Catlady (Feb 11, 2020)

Duster said:


> I'm a little wary of cryptocurrencies. I know some people have done well with them.
> I'm totally invested in Canadian MJ stock.  I need to hold CGC until Fridays' earnings report.  It's before market. They wouldn't ruin every ones' Valentine's day with a negative report, would they?
> I am planning to diversify into another sector.  My investments need to show some gains, so I can sell.


I have CGC, it's one of the best run in the MJ field, and also CRON.  I also have the ETF MJ, and have a buy order for more at $15.  I've lost money so far, but I think it will go up.  I don't use pot, but I've read that these companies have safer pot than the cheaper kind bought on the streets.  Eventually quality will win and people will buy from them rather than chance buying contaminated street products.  Lots of people out there with pain problems and pot is better than opioids.

Another sector that I like is drones, they will be used and improved and made larger.  I bought AVAV at $50 and it has gone up to $69.  Oh, by the way, I'm not wealthy, sometimes I buy as little as 5 shares,  LOL.  I just like buying and selling stocks, it's an exciting ''toy'' to play with.


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## Catlady (Feb 11, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> i trade gbtc for quick profits but i wont hold it .. it has crazy volatility .


I don't have money to buy a LOT of shares, so buying 10 or even 100 shares of any stock won't give me much profit to make it worthwhile to trade often.  I bought GBTC as high as $26 in the beginning 1/2018 and as low as $7 on 10/2018.  The halving is coming, maybe that will be the catalyst for another run?  I hope anyway.  And I love volatility, the only boring stocks I like are those that pay high dividends.


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## Catlady (Feb 11, 2020)

Anybody here bought SPCE?  It's Branson's space tourism venture, part of his Virgin Galactic company.

If I remember correctly, they've booked 600 individuals at $250k per ticket and they're supposed to have their first commercial flight sometime this year.  Space tourism is not their only goal, fast transatlantic flights are also their goal.   Imagine flying halfway around the world in a couple of hours.   I bought at $10 and I think right now it's at $22.  Of course, if there's a tragedy the stock will tank.  They've already lost one captain (the other one somehow survived) some years back.  Hope, for the riders and the stock, that everything goes well on their maiden voyage.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/09/could-virgin-galactic-holdings-be-a-home-run-stock.aspx


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## Knight (Feb 11, 2020)

I'll let my wife know to watch for Spacex as an IPO. Looking for what"s next in tech seems like the way to go. Not sure though @ 75 she needs additional portfolio or risk.


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## Duster (Feb 11, 2020)

Rumor has it that Jim Cramer's wife is really good at stock trading and leaves him in the dust when it comes to investing.


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## Duster (Feb 11, 2020)

When I was in the antiques business, an older, wiser dealer once told me that the way to succeed in antiques was to know more than the next guy.  This seems to be true of stock trading, as well.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 11, 2020)

Duster said:


> Rumor has it that Jim Cramer's wife is really good at stock trading and leaves him in the dust when it comes to investing.



his track record is not good ..   his track record is slightly below a coin toss


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 12, 2020)

Catlady said:


> Diva, I just looked it up, TSLA IPO was on 6/29/10 at $17.
> 
> Great for Knight's wife, she bought at the low and sold at the high.  Great timing!   Me, I bought at $185 last year, and sold at $435 last month, and then was kicking my ass when it went to $980!   Just glad it was only 5 shares.  LOL   The Arabians sold last month before the big rally, they really have had regrets since they lost billions in profit.  They only kept 39k shares.


Wow! That sure is a hefty profit Mrs. Knight got. I *know* she's glad she ignored her husband's advice.  LOL  I've read that we women, if we give ourselves the chance, can be quite good when it comes to financial matters.  I *love* to read about women who kick butt in the financial arena. Thank you for taking the time to look that up for me!


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## Catlady (Feb 14, 2020)

SPCE moved another ship to its Spaceport in NM from Mojave, CA.  They took the 3 hours flying to train another pilot.  The stock is climbing, has gone from $10 at IPO in October to a high of $28 now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virgin-galactic-welcomes-spaceshiptwo-unity-235600107.html


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## mikermeals (Feb 15, 2020)

*this-is-how-to-start-investing-in-the-stock-market*
Saw a good video posted on CNBC.com
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/josh-brown-this-is-how-to-start-investing-in-the-stock-market.html
Josh Brown says we should have three things in mind when investing:

Set goals
Start reading about the financial markets…I am big on this as I recommend the Wall Street Journal, watch CNBC/follow on line, Kiplinger, Forbes, Fortune whatever fits your time contrasts and level of expertise.
Expect volatility 
Bottom line is that it is not as easy as saying, “should I invest in Google or Apple?”


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

most should not be speculating in individual stocks either . for most passive investors they should stick to funds , either index or actively managed .  market volatility  is usually more than most can handle , without taking on individual company risk too .


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## oldmontana (Feb 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> most should not be speculating in individual stocks either . for most passive investors they should stick to funds , either index or actively managed .  market volatility  is usually more than most can handle , without taking on individual company risk too .


most?  I say some.  I thinks up to each to decide.  I would never invest in just funds, in fact I think funds are for investors that do not want to do their "homework".


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> most?  I say some.  I thinks up to each to decide.  I would never invest in just funds, in fact I think funds are for investors that do not want to do their "homework".


most have enough trouble with funds and poor investor behavior .. that is evidenced by looking at morninstar investor returns .. they lag the returns the funds themselves got ...morningstar tracks the money flow to see what investors as a group gets and poor investor behavior hurts them in every fund .

it is okay to play around in stocks with a small sum of money but most investors should not try to bet on the whims of a few companies with the bulk of their assets . not only do you need to have the right companies , in the right sector at the right time in the right market sentiment , but even if you got the above correct , you better know what the competitors have on their drawing board.

that is more than MOST  investors can or want to do .


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## oldmontana (Feb 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> most have enough trouble with funds and poor investor behavior .. that is evidenced by looking at morninstar investor returns .. they lag the returns the funds themselves got ...morningstar tracks the money flow to see what investors as a group gets and poor investor behavior hurts them in every fund .
> 
> it is okay to play around in stocks with a small sum of money but most investors should not try to bet on the whims of a few companies with the bulk of their assets . not only do you need to have the right companies , in the right sector at the right time in the right market sentiment , but even if you got the above correct , you better know what the competitors have on their drawing board.
> 
> that is more than MOST  investors can or want to do .


More sour grapes about what I post.  Very telling!


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> More sour grapes about what I post.  Very telling!


not at all . i have been an investor since 1987 in everything from art to real estate as well as equities . but facts are facts . most amateur investors do not even match the s&p 500 over the long term dabbling in individual stocks .

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 15, 2020)

I stick with a variety of balanced funds because I'm lazy and I feel that I get a good return with a minimum amount of work or risk. 

Years ago I had a good friend that believed investing in individual growth, value, and dividend producing stocks was like running a dairy farm.  He never invested more than the price of a good cow in any one stock and operated under the theory that you lose a cow every now and then but you rarely lose the whole herd.

You don't have to be smart or ambitious to make money but it does help if you are persistent and pragmatic.

Find something that works for you and stick with it.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> I stick with a variety of balanced funds because I'm lazy and I feel that I get a good return with a minimum amount of work or risk.
> 
> Years ago I had a good friend that believed investing in individual growth, value, and dividend producing stocks was like running a dairy farm.  He never invested more than the price of a good cow in any one stock and operated under the theory that you lose a cow every now and then but you rarely lose the whole herd.
> 
> ...


key word is stick with it .. boy , for investors that can be so hard ... but you are so correct .

however i will add this .... the last 40 years we have had nothing but a bull market in bonds with an occasional  speed bump .. that made buy and die portfolio's work well with never being touched except to rebalance .... an s&p index fund and a total bond fund  were fine to just with .

but when rates turn around again and eventually they will , choosing a bond fund is going to be very different .

there are some that do well with rising rates , some with falling rates , some with a weak dollar , some with a strong dollar . some respond to inflation better some to deflation .

so the point is it is going to be a lot harder then the past to maintain a balanced portfolio


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## Lethe200 (Feb 15, 2020)

mikermeals said:


> ......Josh Brown says we should have three things in mind when investing:
> 
> Set goals
> Start reading about the financial markets…I am big on this as* I recommend the Wall Street Journal*, watch CNBC/follow on line, Kiplinger, Forbes, Fortune whatever fits your time contrasts and level of expertise.



I love the WSJ and have had digital access via subscription since they first began offering it. It is, however, VERY expensive. They are running a special right now of $19.50/mo. for 12 months, but the normal subscription price is *$468/yr.* You can cut that to $234/yr if you know someone who already has a WSJ subscription and they are willing to sign you up as a "gift subscriber".

Now, both NY Times and WS Journal articles ARE available for free on Google searches, but only IF you know the exact title of the article. 

Knowledge is a great thing, but these days it often comes at a cost. Your public library may or may not have access to these publications - our city libraries, for example, although we live in a major metropolitan area, have suffered so many cutbacks that few have such financial publications available (assuming you can even find a branch that hasn't been closed or suffered greatly reduced hours).


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## fmdog44 (Feb 15, 2020)

1.Don't chase winners (buy low/sell high).
2.Don't be afraid to sell a winner.
3. Don't listen to your friends-if the investment turns out to be a loser your "friends" will not answer their phone.
4. Know when to hold them, know when to fold them as the song says.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

#2 is actually the only one that tends to play out badly .

there are lots of things we hear and learn about markets that while they look and sound true they play out false.

we all know the saying buy low sell high. great idea but rarely can anyone really do it consistently.

why?

there is another saying " objects in motion stay in motion , until they hit something .

falling prices tend to feed on themselves and go lower until they don't. know one knows what low is because we all thought low in 2008-2009 was when the market fell 1000 points.

well that momentum turned into 5000 and 6000 points. people lost their shirt trying to buy low.

a better saying is buy high and sell higher.  when that trend is already moving up that upward momentum may be the better time to buy . buy high and sell higher may be a whole lot more profitable but you never hear that stated that way ....we hear the trend is your friend yet other mantras disregard that fact .

why?

because the people who know don't tell , and the people who tell don't know.

think about it.


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## oldmontana (Feb 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> not at all . i have been an investor since 1987 in everything from art to real estate as well as equities . but facts are facts . most amateur investors do not even match the s&p 500 over the long term dabbling in individual stocks .
> 
> https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

You didn’t post anything


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## oldmontana (Feb 15, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> not at all . i have been an investor since 1987 in everything from art to real estate as well as equities . but facts are facts . most amateur investors do not even match the s&p 500 over the long term dabbling in individual stocks .
> 
> https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp


You sound like you are the expert and what others have to say does not matter.  Read your posts. please and see how you sound.

FYI I have been investing since the `1970's...so what?

Bye!


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## oldmontana (Feb 15, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> 1.Don't chase winners (buy low/sell high).
> 2.Don't be afraid to sell a winner.
> 3. Don't listen to your friends-if the investment turns out to be a loser your "friends" will not answer their phone.
> 4. Know when to hold them, know when to fold them as the song says.


Good advise!  Thanks!


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> You sound like you are the expert and what others have to say does not matter.  Read your posts. please and see how you sound.
> 
> FYI I have been investing since the `1970's...so what?
> 
> Bye!


I don’t consider myself an expert .but I did and do make it a point to learn from those I think are the best of breed ....most investment advice that gets posted on forums   has either been proven false by modern day research or just myth which sounds good but fails in life for MOST amateur investors.

I never give one on one investment advice but I do present facts and data if I see something I think is not accurate or just poor advice for the general forum readers..they then can be better informed to make their own decisions.

the investment world is filled with bad advice and misinformation that just gets parroted from one ill informed source to another ... so many just go on ,never bothering to learn and just believe their own bull- sh*t .


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## retiredtraveler (Feb 15, 2020)

In defense of Mathjak:  From an article on _Quora_.

Because people are idiots. Here is a great chart we show our clients that was done by JP Morgan:





This shows the average annualized return had you bought and held an asset for 20 years.
Do you notice what the WORST performer is? The average investor.
Put your hands up….how many people out there developed an investing plan and stuck to it for 20 years? Or did they constantly change trying to find something “better”? Or did they change how they invested?
There is a gigantic difference between investment return and INVESTOR return. _It is not hard to design a portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500 over a long period of time_ (e.g. 20 years or so). It is IMPOSSIBLE to get a client or individual to stick to that plan.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

There is no evidence either that gun shy investors do any better in balanced funds ..Morningstar data shows investors exhibit the same poor behavior because they have lower trigger points so the balanced funds show the same poor investor returns as a group then the funds got


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## oldmontana (Feb 15, 2020)

retiredtraveler said:


> In defense of Mathjak:  From an article on _Quora_.
> 
> Because people are idiots. Here is a great chart we show our clients that was done by JP Morgan:
> 
> ...


What is a average investor?  

I know many investors and I find it hard to think that the average investors return is only 2.1%.  I consider myself a average investor and not a expert like one poster posts like he is and my return over 20 years is better than 15%.  Again that chart states "This shows the average annualized return had you bought and held an asset for 20 years".  How many average investors bought and held a stock for 20 years?


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## mathjak107 (Feb 15, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> What is a average investor?
> 
> I know many investors and I find it hard to think that the average investors return is only 2.1%.  I consider myself a average investor and not a expert like one poster posts like he is and my return over 20 years is better than 15%.  Again that chart states "This shows the average annualized return had you bought and held an asset for 20 years".  How many average investors bought and held a stock for 20 years?


You can look at investor returns vs fund returns over any time frame you like  on Morningstar...they all show the same thing ...the money flows leave at the wrong times and miss a lot of the gains .

left to their own devices ,overall as a group investors can’t seem to even get what the funds got .

I started in 1987 and using fidelity funds ran an 11% cagr in 100% equities right up until I made my changes for retirement using the fidelity insight growth model ...not many investors who buy individual stocks have a long term average that high for so long


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## OneEyedDiva (Feb 15, 2020)

mikermeals said:


> *this-is-how-to-start-investing-in-the-stock-market*
> Saw a good video posted on CNBC.com
> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/josh-brown-this-is-how-to-start-investing-in-the-stock-market.html
> Josh Brown says we should have three things in mind when investing:
> ...


Miklermeals...A few decades ago, after attending an investment seminar sponsored by (what was then) Dean Witter Reynolds, I made up my mind that I would start investing as soon as I accumulated the extra $1,000 minimum requirement.  I started with them but eventually moved from that brokerage. Through trial, error and doing all the things on the above list, I've managed to do fairly well as a self taught investor.  I "inhale" financial articles. I agree with Mathjak about individual stocks.  I only have a few shares each of Apple and Facebook, up 250% and 499.78% respectively from their purchase prices. Dumped Fitbit after a year of it's dismal performance.  It's still down about $39 a share from the last lot I bought.  Luckily, I didn't have many shares to begin with and selling at a loss was used to offset my gains, which saved me on my 2018 taxes.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 16, 2020)

investor behavior and how much we have invested at any given time are the biggest factors to what our PERSONAL ROI   is .

a great market on little money is worse than an average market on a lot more money .. so how markets align with the amounts you invest will be a biggie .

today a mere 7% drop , which is small , wipes out 10 years of me maxing out my 401k at catch up .. starting out decades ago a 7% drop may have been a few months .  

the biggest issue is investor behavior . humans are prewired to hate losing money more than making money . so our irrational brains have most of us selling when we should be buying or sitting still , and doing the reverse when it is prudent to take some chips off the table .,,..

then you get people like me .. i am a dirty lil market timer at heart and i suck at it for the most part  so for 33 years i use the fidelity insight newsletter to keep most of my money from myself .

i follow an appropriate portfolio model and let them call the occasional fund swaps ..  it is so easy my 80 year old aunt does it and i know with or without me my wife can easily follow along .

i still speculate in individual stocks but only with what i allow myself .


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 16, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> then you get people like me .. i am a dirty lil market timer at heart and i suck at it *for the most part  so for 33 years i use the fidelity insight newsletter* to keep most of my money from myself .
> 
> *i follow an appropriate portfolio model and let them call the occasional fund swaps ..*  it is so easy my 80 year old aunt does it and i know with or without me my wife can easily follow along .
> 
> i still speculate in individual stocks but only with what i allow myself .



This seems like a simple logical investment strategy but it doesn't seem to fit with your posts on investing.

It's not a criticism I just don't understand what appears to be two extremes in investment strategy, what you do vs what you discuss.

Don't get me wrong I enjoy the KISS theory of passive portfolio management and follow my own version of it.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 16, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> This seems like a simple logical investment strategy but it doesn't seem to fit with your posts on investing.
> 
> It's not a criticism I just don't understand what appears to be two extremes in investment strategy, what you do vs what you discuss.
> 
> Don't get me wrong I enjoy the KISS theory of passive portfolio management and follow my own version of it.



i learned along time ago i am a tinkerer at heart ..  i can put portfolio's together in my sleep . but the problem is left to my own devices i am always thinking about my next move and 2nd guessing the last move . i am never happy being average at anything i want to do .

  i found back in the 1980's that i liked the newsletter models ... it kept me from having to spend time managing a portfolio and constantly trying to  make it better .... i could spend my term learning about all the things i wanted to learn about .

i found over the decades the models performed very well  beating indexing and there was no reason for me to switch ...

i do have my trading account which i do well with but it does require time to trade and scope things out so i run hot and cold . there can be times like this month where i do very little trading and times like last month where i traded daily . it all depends on my free time .

i got back in to my drumming again big time and have been working with a bunch of recording artists on their 50th anniversary tour so between grand kids and drumming there are times  i just don't want to trade at all .

my wife was a widow once and when her husband  died she was left a bunch of investments she did not understand .. she went to the guy at her bank who she trusted and he put her in dot coms and tech .. she lost half her savings ...

so our plan has to be one easily followed by her ..

so today i run  one or two choices in the fidelity insight newsletter . plus i run at this stage a very defensive all weather portfolio that makes money up or down ... that gets rebalanced whenever one asset is 10% higher than the others or once a year  ...easy peazy


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## Aunt Bea (Feb 16, 2020)

It sounds like we are on the same page except for the fact that I'm not a tinkerer.

I keep an eye on my investments and make the final top-level decisions but I leave the nitty-gritty decision making recommendations and predictions to the professional fund managers.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 16, 2020)

Aunt Bea said:


> It sounds like we are on the same page except for the fact that I'm not a tinkerer.
> 
> I keep an eye on my investments and make the final top-level decisions but I leave the nitty-gritty decision making recommendations and predictions to the professional fund managers.



while fund manages make decisions about the fund holdings , decisions about the portfolio are a different story .

a good portfolio is dynamic , the funds should change as the big picture changes ..

even what bond funds you hold matter . there are bond funds that will take a beating if rates or inflation rise , other bond funds make money when inflation or rates rise . there are times to be in  international and times not to bother ... there are more defensive portfolio's and less defensive portfolios .

so all well and good portfolio managers handle individual funds but the portfolio design has to be  built to meet your goals and needs.

many retirees want more defensive  , all weather models now after 11 years of gains and this late in the business cycle .  so portfolios do better being dynamic , like steering a big ship to keep it on course .

how i would invest after a  deep downturn is very different then the models i would use late cycle 11 years in with th chaos in washington .


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## mathjak107 (Feb 16, 2020)

here are some examples of popular all weather portfolios . many  investors split their allocation , keeping the money dearest to them in an all weather model  while using a more aggressive model for a bit of the assets they are more willing to expose to a bet on prosperity . .


these are portfolio's that derive their gains in good and bad times .

they tend to stand up better in the down side of the cycle .

out of all of them the golden butterfly had the best balance of risk vs reward , least amount of volatility and lowest amount of losing years since 1970


ray dalio's all weather portfolio

Asset Allocation

30% Total Stock Market
40% Long Term Bonds
15% Intermediate Bonds
7.5% Commodities
7.5% Gold
---------------------------------------------------------
the golden butterfly

Asset Allocation

20% Total Stock Market
20% Small Cap Value
20% Long Term Bonds
20% Short Term Bonds
20% Gold
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

the pin wheel portfolio

Asset Allocation

15% Total Stock Market
10% Small Cap Value
15% International
10% Emerging Markets
15% Intermediate Bonds
10% Cash
15% REITs
10% Gold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
the desert portfolio

Asset Allocation

Stocks
30% Domestic Total Stock Market
Bonds
60% Intermediate Term
Real Assets
10% Gold
--------------------------------------------------------------------
the permanent portfolio

Asset Allocation

25% Total Stock Market
25% Long Term Bonds
25% Cash
25% Gold


pinwheel variations

15% Total US Stock Market ITOT
10% Small Cap Value IJS
15% Total World Stock Market VT
10% Emerging Markets SCHE
15% Intermediate US Treasuries just buy the underlying
10% T-Bills / Cash just buy the underlying and/or use an online bank
15% REIT SCHH
10% Gold physical or GLDM


Variant 1 - break up Total World Stock Market (VT is 56% USA, 44% ACWI ex-US)

23.4% Total US Stock Market ITOT
10% Small Cap Value IJS
6.6% All Country World Index ex-US CWI
10% Emerging Markets SCHE
15% Intermediate US Treasuries just buy the underlying
10% T-Bills / Cash just buy the underlying and/or use an online bank
15% REIT SCHH
10% Gold physical or GLDM




lastly THE BLACK SWAN ETF

SWANX

here are the details and comparisons of the models . tyler , who created portfolio charts is the founder of the golden butterfly and pinwheel portfolios

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/


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## Lethe200 (Feb 16, 2020)

What mathjak posted in #58 sounds something similar to what my ex-boss, an independent CFP, once explained to me. He was rebalancing a client's portfolio and after discussing it with her, happened to remark to me (after she left) that he would have liked to put more of her assets (than he had recommended in their mtg) into a certain fund, because he felt it might do extremely well over the next 12 months. 

I asked him why he had not done so - I was new to the job - and he explained that as a fiduciary, he was always going to shade to the conservative side in portfolio allocations. This was especially true as the client was a widowed housewife, and all her assets had been inherited when her spouse died. 

"If it were my own portfolio, I'd be more aggressive in allocating funds. And I am more aggressive about my own retirement accounts," he said. "But you don't do that with client money."
====
Interestingly, when another client came in and wanted to invest in something that was "big risk/big reward", he suggested the client take whatever he felt comfortable investing - I think he suggested $50-75K - and invest it directly using a brokerage. 

I later learned there were three clients (out of about 125; this CFP was semi-retired and had transferred 80% of his clients to other planners) who did have separate investment accounts for high-risk investments. They were free to use any broker/brokerage they wished.

As their primary adviser he emphasized to them he needed to know the amounts of such accounts and year-end results, but ONLY for purposes of how it affected the assets his firm managed, for allocation and tax considerations. He did not directly manage those accounts nor require to see the statements, other than the final year-end report.


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## oldmontana (Feb 16, 2020)

Lethe200 said:


> What mathjak posted in #58 sounds something similar to what my ex-boss, an independent CFP, once explained to me. He was rebalancing a client's portfolio and after discussing it with her, happened to remark to me (after she left) that he would have liked to put more of her assets (than he had recommended in their mtg) into a certain fund, because he felt it might do extremely well over the next 12 months.
> 
> I asked him why he had not done so - I was new to the job - and he explained that as a fiduciary, he was always going to shade to the conservative side in material for an epic SNL skit.. This was especially true as the client was a widowed housewife, and all her assets had been inherited when her spouse died.
> 
> ...


Portfolio allocations like mathjack posted are not for investors that do their own investing and want income.  Most allocations I see would have me, at my age, in about 90% bonds...I laugh at that.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 16, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> Portfolio allocations like mathjack posted are not for investors that do their own investing and want income.  Most allocations I see would have me, at my age, in about 90% bonds...I laugh at that.


Huh ... what do you think we are living on ?   THE INCOME iS GENERATED BY THE PORTFOLIO OF FUNDS .   As well as who is doing the investing ,the man on the moon ?   If your are talking picking individual stocks instead of broad based funds then I would say   90% of posters here should not be buying individual stocks for anything but some fun investing.

Tell us which portfolio I posted has you 90% bonds ?  No one should be investing based on some age based mantra


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## oldmontana (Feb 16, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> Huh ... what do you think we are living on ?   THE INCOME iS GENERATED BY THE PORTFOLIO OF FUNDS .   As well as who doing the investing ,the man on the moon ?   If your are talking picking individual stocks instead of broad based funds then I would say   90% of posters here should not be buying individual stocks for anything but some fun investing.
> 
> Tell us which portfolio I posted has you 90% bonds ?  No one should be investing based on some age based mantra


4 points...

1. I never said you posted a  portfolio that was 90% bonds.  

2.  I stated "Portfolio allocations like mathjack posted are not for investors that do their own investing and want income " You stated "Huh ... what do you think we are living on ? THE INCOME iS GENERATED BY THE PORTFOLIO OF FUNDS"  and "  As well as who doing the investing ,the man on the moon ? "  Nasty comment  ... No I am the one investing.  

3.   You stated..."No one should be investing based on some age based mantra"  Almost all investing publications use ones age to determine asset allocations. 

4   I sure would not take your advise when you state  " I would say   90% of posters here should not be buying individual stocks for anything but some fun investing."  That is asinine!


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## mathjak107 (Feb 16, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> 4 points...
> 
> 1. I never said you posted a  portfolio that was 90% bonds.
> 
> ...


Really , then don’t read the posts if you think it’s not for you ...so far From what I seen you post there is nothing I would recommend to most  retirees here . Ditto on age based investing too .
it is  wall streets way of covering their ass ..it is an awful way to invest .

so far I have seen You  tell investors to use stocks that pay dividends instead of bonds in a balanced portfolio because stocks gain more than bonds . So should retirees scrap their balanced portfolios and be 100% equities because equities gain more ?   Does that even make sense to you ?,,and they should buy individual stocks instead of broad based diversified funds  regardless of their knowledge and investing skills ..  that is likely the worst recommendation one can give to posters of all various Skills and knowledge as a group.

there is not one study that will show those who pick individual stocks  overall , have beaten buy and hold diversified funds , not one ...but the reverse is filled with more studies showing long term funds have beaten trying to pick individual stocks for most investors .

we need to invest to meet our needs , our goals and our investing temperament ....some are investing to support themselves , others have pensions and this is fun money from their portfolios, others are not investing for themselves but for legacy money for heirs ...some are totally gun shy of investing ..

all can be the same age but all could have radically different allocations and needs ....

someone investing for legacy money for heirs can be as aggressive as they like. Since it is not themselves they are investing for .

someone needing to pensionize  a pile of money in to a safe ,secure ,consistent pay check has other needs .

someone who supports their needs with pensions or other income sources can be as aggressive or as conservative as they like since they don’t need to draw down in poor outcomes

if you think that one size fits all age based investing is the way to go I would strongly disagree.

if a publication says to invest by age  , I say throw it away ,it is garbage advice and the writers should be properly trained .

in fact you can take any group of retirees and you will find their portfolios match their own needs and investing temperament not their age .

Wall Street likes age based mantras because it covers their ass not because it works ...no one can claim they were put in something inappropriate if it follows a standardized blueprint ....

however look at any target date fund ..the allocations are different from fund family to fund family  so there is no real standard by age and none follow some silly age based mantra


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## mathjak107 (Feb 27, 2020)

Well the all weather portfolios are doing fine through this calamity ..markets down more than 11% in 6 trading days ....

This is what happens when you put the carrot on the stick and insist on chasing every penny in gains even after an 11 year bull ....no one knows where this will end but so many are kicking themselves now on other forums for not getting  more defensive before they gave up everything they hung in longer for .

This is also why dividends or not , stocks are stocks and they are NEVER proxies for fixed income investments....never ever listen to anyone who tells you to buy stocks if you are looking at fixed income investments .... ideally you should have a balanced portfolio with both ...but never sub anything on the fixed income side with anything that is on the equity side of a portfolio


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## Don M. (Feb 27, 2020)

The bad thing about this current situation is that no one has any idea of how bad this epidemic will get, or how long it will last.  There seems to be No way to predict where and when it will spread to next.  If large numbers of workers have to be quarantined, and businesses and services start shutting down, virtually ALL investments will be put at risk.  This is truly a unique situation that has little precedence.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 27, 2020)

I say all the time , that what triggers our downturns is stuff never on the radar .

Most people have portfolios based on prosperity ...they pretty much rule out recessions ,depressions and high inflation happening .

Good portfolio design never rules out these things but allows for them and  plans for them ...this is why I am a big believer in the all weather portfolios that make money up or down .....

People try to capture every penny of gain and then end up giving a lot of it back when they get caught in these declines from no where ....now it takes so much more in gains to get back .

I switched last December to a all weather portfolio...it has done very well and since the decline gold and long term treasuries have been soaring ....the plan is when my regular 60/40 model is 8-10% less than what I am in I will buy back what I had and pocket a few hundred thousand difference.....


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## Pecos (Feb 27, 2020)

My all-weather funds and balanced funds are doing reasonably well in this tough environment.
I have been to this Rodeo a couple of times in my 40 years of investing and the market has always recovered.

That said, I did draw out a substantial sum when the market levels looked unsustainable earlier this year and poked it into CD's.  Even then I wondered if I had done the right thing because the market kept right on rising, ….. until this latest downturn.
To some degree it is a "crap shoot", and you have to use your head. ….. and sometimes listen to your gut.


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## moviequeen1 (Feb 27, 2020)

For the past couple of years,I 've been interested/keep track where the Dow JOnes is at the beginning&end of year
In 2019, started at 23,346.24,ended at 28,538.44
In 2020  started at 28,869.41.One can only hope things will have turn around in a postive direction by the end of the yr


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## fmdog44 (Feb 27, 2020)

Biggest loss ever today 02/27/20. The Dow was down around 850 this morning then down later around 330 then I come home to see it down 1,190.95. All three markets down more than 4% today. *One* case of the corona virus reported in Brazil and their market all but crashed. Strap yourselves in.


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## fmdog44 (Feb 27, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> #2 is actually the only one that tends to play out badly .
> 
> there are lots of things we hear and learn about markets that while they look and sound true they play out false.
> 
> ...


The above is the total opposite of Warren Buffet. Most important only a fool buys a stock solely based on price.


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## Pecos (Feb 27, 2020)

Ouch, I just looked at our losses and the recent turmoil has dropped our portfolio down by close about 7.5% from the recent high point. I don't like it, but I just have to ride it out.

Well, after thinking about it a bit and cranking the amount that I recently transferred to CD's back into the equation gave me a loss of about 4.5% from the recent high point. I will go with that and count myself as having dodged a big bullet.

One of the guys in my Wed morning breakfast group is planning to sell. Several of us tried to talk him out of it, but panic is a hard thing to deal with. It is way too late to do any selling.


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## oldmontana (Feb 27, 2020)

mathjak107 said:


> I say all the time , that what triggers our downturns is stuff never on the radar .
> 
> Most people have portfolios based on prosperity ...they pretty much rule out recessions ,depressions and high inflation happening .
> 
> ...


"Good portfolio design never rules out these things but allows for them and  plans for them ...this is why I am a big believer in the all weather portfolios that make money up or down ....."

I do not think there is a portfolio that makes money if the market goes up or down.


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## mathjak107 (Feb 27, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> Biggest loss ever today 02/27/20. The Dow was down around 850 this morning then down later around 330 then I come home to see it down 1,190.95. All three markets down more than 4% today. *One* case of the corona virus reported in Brazil and their market all but crashed. Strap yourselves in.


Not true at all .. this was not even close to the biggest loss  .... points alone mean nothing ..it is all about percentages ,that is what makes for the biggest drop ...1987 saw a 26% drop in one day .....now that is the biggest loss


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## mathjak107 (Feb 27, 2020)

oldmontana said:


> "Good portfolio design never rules out these things but allows for them and  plans for them ...this is why I am a big believer in the all weather portfolios that make money up or down ....."
> 
> I do not think there is a portfolio that makes money if the market goes up or down.


Sure there is , the Harry brown permanent portfolio has been in use for 40 years ....it was up in 2008 .... it is doing very nicely this year .

it is 25% Tlt or long treasury bonds 
25% total market or s&p fund
25% very short term treasuries
25%  Gld or gold

it has had 5 losing years out of more than 40 and all were less than 5%.

there is a mutual fund called the permanent portfolio..it is not the same thing and is terrible


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## mathjak107 (Feb 27, 2020)

fmdog44 said:


> The above is the total opposite of Warren Buffet. Most important only a fool buys a stock solely based on price.


He has been doing awful the last few years ...he lost 4 billion in two days in kraft Heinz , a fortune in ibm and billions in wells fargo.

in his hey day none of us were warren Buffett ..what Applies to warren does not apply to the average investor...the average investor can not even get the same returns the funds they were in got ...morningstar tracks small investor returns by tracking the money ...they give both investor returns and the ground returns ....investors as a group show awful investor behavior


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