# Investment income on the decline again



## debodun (Apr 30, 2022)

I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


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## Packerjohn (Apr 30, 2022)

I can't help you since I don't know your investment.  What I can tell you is that to rent a car in Anchorage, Alaska, they seem to want $300/day.  Seems that our money is getting to be "funny money."  They can keep their cars in Anchorage; if I go there I'll drive my own car and enjoy the drive along the way.


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## HoneyNut (Apr 30, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


Don't worry, you are not alone, I'd guess we have all lost a lot lately.  My retirement-target-year funds have lost the most, I just hope the fund managers know what they are doing, because I'd thought those funds were the most safely conservative.  
My Fidelity home page used to tell me how much money I can spend per month in retirement, then when the market went down it started telling me what year I would run out of money in retirement, then the market went down more and the year for 'end of plan' came even closer, and now the market is down so much the homepage is eerily silent about the whole thing! ha ha

I'm still studying Spanish on the DuoLingo site each day just in case I have to move to Mexico and live off just Social Security.


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## debodun (Apr 30, 2022)

HoneyNut said:


> I'm still studying Spanish on the DuoLingo site each day just in case I have to move to Mexico and live off just Social Security.


I hope you like tacos and burritos.


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## Pepper (Apr 30, 2022)

When you ain't got nuthin' you have nuthin' to lose.


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## Becky1951 (Apr 30, 2022)

Pepper said:


> When you ain't got nuthin' you have nuthin' to lose.


I have a pot and a window.  But that's about all.


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## Myquest55 (Apr 30, 2022)

There are a lot of factors that influence the stock market.  My investments are down a lot, over all too.  The war in Ukraine is forcing a big hit, economically, but if you can hang on for a year, I suspect it will eventually come back.  Remember 2008?  We all survived and did even better.  I'm ever hopeful.


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## hollydolly (Apr 30, 2022)

Packerjohn said:


> I can't help you since I don't know your investment.  What I can tell you is that to rent a car in Anchorage, Alaska, they seem to want $300/day.  Seems that our money is getting to be "funny money."  They can keep their cars in Anchorage; if I go there I'll drive my own car and enjoy the drive along the way.


yes I was shocked the other day when I looked up car rentals. I was thinking I might drive to Scotland... and I don't want to put all that mileage on my own car.. It's only 450 miles or therabouts, but it's on a manual thats a few years old, so I thought I'd hire a new-ish car.. fuggettaboutitt...


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## HarryHawk (May 2, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


Soaring inflation, uncontrolled government spending, high energy prices, supply chain shortages, real earnings falling, international chaos, pandemic, unsecured boarders, good chance the U.S. economy is headed for a recession are some of the reasons.

If the current trends continue, most investments will continue to fall.  IF and when at least some of the trends reverse, many investment should rise. Your guess is as good as anyone's as to which way things go in the foreseeable future.

Standard wisdom is investing in the stock market has always provided positive returns over the LONG term.  The question may be, how long of a term do some of us have.  (And of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.)


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## HarryHawk (May 2, 2022)

p.s. I also started studying Spanish on .DuoLingo.  I'm not sure I am going to have to move to Mexico in order to find plenty of opportunities to use it.


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## OneEyedDiva (May 2, 2022)

Kind of hard to explain if we have no idea what your investments consist of. The market took quite a dive on Friday.  According to Yahoo Finance my investments lost a little more than $6,000 that day.  I suspect it would have been more if utility funds which make up 27% of my portfolio dipped as low as other investments, but they tend to hold up better in down markets. As long as you're in it for the long haul, your investments will bounce back at some point. Nothing should be invested in the market that you'd need within 5 years.


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## Aunt Bea (May 2, 2022)

_"So smile when you read a headline that says "Investors lose as market falls." Edit it in your mind to "Disinvestors lose as market falls-but investors gain." Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: *"Every putt makes someone happy."*)"_ - Warren Buffet


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## Liberty (May 2, 2022)

Hey, right now your money in the bank is the best investment...lol.
Right now we are rating our funds by the one that has lost the least - and that
is a great Dividend Growth Fund...it seems to be golden so far this year.


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## C50 (May 2, 2022)

There are dozens upon dozens of financial analyst out there explaining why the market reacts as it does.  There are certainly indicators that from a historical perspective can indicate possible  fluctuations.

You know what I think?  So much of market fluctuation is based fear reaction.  It seems all it takes is a news source to report on a little hiccup that may resort in a financial dip and then it becomes a run away train, by the next day we're in a crisis.

I think we should ban all news sources from speculating on economic issues.  I'm only half joking.


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## Aunt Bea (May 2, 2022)

The annoying thing about mutual fund declines is the capital gains that are generated as fund managers attempt to salvage past gains.

That usually results in higher income taxes in the down years than in the up years.


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## Liberty (May 2, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> The annoying thing about mutual fund declines is the capital gains that are generated as fund managers attempt to salvage past gains.
> 
> That usually results in higher income taxes in the down years than in the up years.


Time for some tax loss harvesting?


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## Liberty (May 2, 2022)

C50 said:


> There are dozens upon dozens of financial analyst out there explaining why the market reacts as it does.  There are certainly indicators that from a historical perspective can indicate possible  fluctuations.
> 
> You know what I think?  So much of market fluctuation is based fear reaction.  It seems all it takes is a news source to report on a little hiccup that may resort in a financial dip and then it becomes a run away train, by the next day we're in a crisis.
> 
> I think we should ban all news sources from speculating on economic issues.  I'm only half joking.


Beloved John Bogle said "nobody knows nothing"...and that is the only double negative non declarative sentence that is actually "declarative"...lol.


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## Liberty (May 2, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> _"So smile when you read a headline that says "Investors lose as market falls." Edit it in your mind to "Disinvestors lose as market falls-but investors gain." Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: *"Every putt makes someone happy."*)"_ - Warren Buffet


Warren also said *“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”.  *

Right now, the traders are making money on the shorts.


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## Aunt Bea (May 2, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Time for some tax loss harvesting?


I’ve owned my funds for so long that there isn’t much, if any, tax loss to harvest.


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## Timewise 60+ (May 2, 2022)

The stock market reacts to all economic indicators noted above.  Also, the cost (interest rate) the Federal Reserve is charging for money it lends to banks, impacts the markets.  The Fed's use this rate to try and damper inflation.  

Those who have investments in the stock markets frequently get upset when the market values drop.   

But know that over the long history of the US stock markets, the overall values of stocks have *always come back* and then actually grown in value.  Most of the time these variances seldom last more than a year or so (except during the great depression). 

Therefore, when the markets are dropping, if you are not actually selling your stocks at a loss during these times, then you are actually not losing any value in your stocks, since they will recover if you just wait it out.  If your stocks are for later in life (like a 401K or other retirement investment portfolio), just sit tight and don't spend time worrying about it.   My investment advisors are doing some tax loss harvesting during these downturn times.  This tactic works well if you know what you are doing.  That's one reason I have a professional working with us on investments.  

I am not a stockbroker or investment advisor, just a retired guy who had a 401k over many years.  I learned to not worry so much about it, as when the market dropped, I just sit tight.


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## Don M. (May 2, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?



The markets are in a sharp decline due to many factors....Inflation, Ukraine, the Fed, Covid supply chain issues, etc., etc.  This trend will likely continue for much of the Summer....and may even rival the downturn in 2008.  The "fear" factor is driving much of the market trading, and the Tech stocks are taking the biggest hits.  The CBOE VIX index is hovering well above 30, and until it drops well below 20, this market volatility will likely continue.    

This is a good time to be invested "conservatively" and waiting things out.


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## debodun (May 2, 2022)

My investment isn't in the Stock Market. I have Franklin Fund tax free securities. I am not panicking, just curious. The worst thing peple do in an economic downturn is start pulling money out of their investments. That's what caused the Stock Market crash in 1929. Sell! Sell! Sell!


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## oldmontana (May 2, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?



I also lost a lot on paper but my dividends keep coming.


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## Creek Pirate (May 2, 2022)

HarryHawk said:


> Soaring inflation, uncontrolled government spending, high energy prices, supply chain shortages, real earnings falling, international chaos, pandemic, unsecured boarders, good chance the U.S. economy is headed for a recession are some of the reasons.
> 
> If the current trends continue, most investments will continue to fall.  IF and when at least some of the trends reverse, many investment should rise. Your guess is as good as anyone's as to which way things go in the foreseeable future.
> 
> Standard wisdom is investing in the stock market has always provided positive returns over the LONG term.  The question may be, how long of a term do some of us have.  (And of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.)


If we are lucky, things may slow this down turn after Nov. but a complete turn around won't happen for about 3 years. best thing is become a little frugal and try to live on your fixed income and reduce selling your investments to allow them to recoup. Retirees are going to have it hard for awhile with high inflation and no / slow market growth.


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## garyt1957 (May 3, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


I'd be dancing in the street if I had only lost $10k in that time frame.


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## dseag2 (May 3, 2022)

C50 said:


> There are dozens upon dozens of financial analyst out there explaining why the market reacts as it does.  There are certainly indicators that from a historical perspective can indicate possible  fluctuations.
> 
> You know what I think?  So much of market fluctuation is based fear reaction.  It seems all it takes is a news source to report on a little hiccup that may resort in a financial dip and then it becomes a run away train, by the next day we're in a crisis.
> 
> I think we should ban all news sources from speculating on economic issues.  I'm only half joking.


I don't disagree with you.  My father was a financial advisor and in the "old days" it seemed that a company's financial strength dictated what their stock was worth.  Now, it seems that if anyone sneezes the market goes up or down.  With that said, Wall Street has never reacted positively based on fear or uncertainty.  But it has provided over 10% growth over many years.

I just know that I am invested for the long haul.  2021 was a great year.  2022 is taking all those gains out of my portfolio.  I'm hoping 2023 is better, but we shall see.


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## Liberty (May 4, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> I'd be dancing in the street if I had only lost $10k in that time frame.


Depends on how much money you have invested in what funds or bonds.


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## Aunt Bea (May 4, 2022)

garyt1957 said:


> I'd be dancing in the street if I had only lost $10k in that time frame.





Liberty said:


> Depends on how much money you have invested in what funds or bonds.


I wonder, does it hurt more to lose $10,000.00 on a $100,000.00 portfolio than it does to lose $1,000,000.00 on a $10,000,000.00 portfolio?


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## debodun (May 4, 2022)

Same proportion.


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## C50 (May 4, 2022)

While it's discouraging to see your investments decrease from their peaks it's not truly a loss unless you cash out, or it dips below your actual investment.


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## Timewise 60+ (May 4, 2022)

C50 said:


> While it's discouraging to see your investments decrease from their peaks it's not truly a loss unless you cash out, or it dips below your actual investment.


Funny how few 'get it'!  When the market is down, don't sell or you will take the losses you fear!  Since in America, our markets have always recovered and then grown beyond where they started.  Your best tactic is to wait them out...!


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## HarryHawk (May 4, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> I wonder, does it hurt more to lose $10,000.00 on a $100,000.00 portfolio than it does to lose $1,000,000.00 on a $10,000,000.00 portfolio?


It's not so much the amount, it is how bad you need the money.  IF your entire life savings is $100K, you might be looking at some tough times ahead.  If you have $10M, you may have to sell off one of the vacation homes.


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## Geezer Garage (May 4, 2022)

It seems I may have just taken a 200k hit. A highly rated bond investment in high end retirement housing suggested by our advisor has filed for bankruptcy.  50k of that was invested for my nephew, whose trust I control. I'm not legally responsible for that loss, but morally I feel I need to make that up. This has been paying interest for several years and then quit for several months during covid, and restarted 6-7 months ago, and then stopped paying out again. I think I'm done with financial advisors. Fortunately I have other resources, but not an easy pill to swallow, and still finding out if I have any recourse.


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## C50 (May 4, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> Funny how few 'get it'!  When the market is down, don't sell or you will take the losses you fear!  Since in America, our markets have always recovered and then grown beyond where they started.  Your best tactic is to wait them out...!


I do think some people depend on the growth to meet retirement needs, instead of diversifying some money into fixed earnings or simple cash accounts.  They pull $1000 out a month and the account maintains a steady balance, then the market swings bad and suddenly that $1000 a month starts dinging the account toward the negative quickly.  Then they panic, sell at a loss thinking it was their best option.


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## C50 (May 4, 2022)

Geezer Garage said:


> It seems I may have just taken a 200k hit. A highly rated bond investment in high end retirement housing suggested by our advisor has filed for bankruptcy.  50k of that was invested for my nephew, whose trust I control. I'm not legally responsible for that loss, but morally I feel I need to make that up. This has been paying interest for several years and then quit for several months during covid, and restarted 6-7 months ago, and then stopped paying out again. I think I'm done with financial advisors. Fortunately I have other resources, but not an easy pill to swallow, and still finding out if I have any recourse.


That would be an ouch for sure, very nice of you to insulate your nephew from that hit.


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## Lethe200 (May 4, 2022)

We have used an independent CFP firm for the last 15 yrs. I've already posted elsewhere an interesting excerpt from their 3/31/2022 quarterly summary (1Q summary excerpt). 

Tax loss harvesting really helps. We take distributions monthly, but only 25% of it is taxable income even though the distributions come 100% from a taxable account. Doesn't even come close to bumping us up to a higher tax bracket (thank goodness!).

We are fortunate as our distributions are used only for discretionary spending. At only 2.5% of our total portfolio we don't see a need to alter our risk profile. Our portfolio currently is in a 60/40 equity/bonds position, although our firm has our permission to move into a 50/50 position if they think it's warranted.


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## Packerjohn (May 4, 2022)

hollydolly said:


> yes I was shocked the other day when I looked up car rentals. I was thinking I might drive to Scotland... and I don't want to put all that mileage on my own car.. It's only 450 miles or therabouts, but it's on a manual thats a few years old, so I thought I'd hire a new-ish car.. fuggettaboutitt...


I wonder what is happening with car rentals.  I have rented several times in Canada and 3 times in the UK and finally in the Republic of Ireland.  The rates were doable and reasonable.  Now they are "out of this world" and I refuse to rent.  There are all kinds of holidays where you don't need to rent a car (cruises, trains, planes, homestays, etc.).

They seem to have some sort of excuse where they sold off their inventory (due to Covid19) and now they can't get enough cars due to a shortage of some element.  Bully for them!  Seems to me they lost revenue due to the pandemic and now they are going to screw you royally and make up for all that lost revenue.  Hack, I'm not paying $300 or $400/day plus plenty of gas and insurance to rent a car or truck.  Like, I said, there are other types of vacations.


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## bowmore (May 4, 2022)

debodun said:


> My investment isn't in the Stock Market. I have Franklin Fund tax free securities. I am not panicking, just curious. The worst thing peple do in an economic downturn is start pulling money out of their investments. That's what caused the Stock Market crash in 1929. Sell! Sell! Sell!


If you are in a tax free fund, the fund is investing in municipal bonds. As interest rates go up, the bond prices go down.


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## Don M. (May 4, 2022)

The FED just raised it's rates by .5% today, and its expected that they will do so multiple times this year.  This will have some "temporary"...hopefully...effects on the markets.  Interest rates on mortgages, and credit cards, etc., will be rising, and perhaps slow down some of this inflation.  We may even see bank rates rising....making the money in the bank earn more than a "pittance".


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## garyt1957 (May 4, 2022)

Liberty said:


> Depends on how much money you have invested in what funds or bonds.


Of course, But I, Me would be thrilled to have only lost $10K


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## Timewise 60+ (May 4, 2022)

Geezer Garage said:


> It seems I may have just taken a 200k hit. A highly rated bond investment in high end retirement housing suggested by our advisor has filed for bankruptcy.  50k of that was invested for my nephew, whose trust I control. I'm not legally responsible for that loss, but morally I feel I need to make that up. This has been paying interest for several years and then quit for several months during covid, and restarted 6-7 months ago, and then stopped paying out again. I think I'm done with financial advisors. Fortunately I have other resources, but not an easy pill to swallow, and still finding out if I have any recourse.


Sorry to read this, it is not good!  I would surely change investment advisors...I had a company get me into some Real Estate Investment Trusts quite a few years ago.  We lost some money on those and you really cannot get out of them...  So we dumped the company and found a new one who has done a great job for us...


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## Timewise 60+ (May 4, 2022)

C50 said:


> I do think some people depend on the growth to meet retirement needs, instead of diversifying some money into fixed earnings or simple cash accounts.  They pull $1000 out a month and the account maintains a steady balance, then the market swings bad and suddenly that $1000 a month starts dinging the account toward the negative quickly.  Then they panic, sell at a loss thinking it was their best option.


I get that...but many go crazy on these market downturns, when in fact they are not at risk unless they start selling.


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## Murrmurr (May 4, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


For decades, investment companies have been investing large in China, but now that it seems inevitable the CCP will invade Taiwan, investment companies are pulling out, expecting the US to impose severe financial sanctions on the CCP when the invasion happens, and the CCP to take full control over all US interests in China.

I think that's the explanation. Plus, the war in Ukraine, probably. Investment companies put some of our money there, too.


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## MickaC (May 4, 2022)

I’m not saying, I’m not concerned or worried......my way at looking at things are....
Money is only lost if a person cashes out......
Beginning of Covid......seemed everything took a nose dive......but had recovered.
I’m hoping and quite sure, values will recover again.


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## Liberty (May 4, 2022)

Aunt Bea said:


> I wonder, does it hurt more to lose $10,000.00 on a $100,000.00 portfolio than it does to lose $1,000,000.00 on a $10,000,000.00 portfolio?


Depends on who you are, your age, and what you planned to do with the investment, I'd guess. No one likes to see a reduction in funds, but you only "lock in the loss" if you sell. For instance, our equity investments are designated for our heirs, so hopefully they will profit from them and the market will have enough time to recover by then...lol


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## Murrmurr (May 4, 2022)

MickaC said:


> I’m not saying, I’m not concerned or worried......my way at looking at things are....
> Money is only lost if a person cashes out......
> Beginning of Covid......seemed everything took a nose dive......but had recovered.
> I’m hoping and quite sure, values will recover again.


Market investments correct eventually. I'm fairly sure business investments will start turning toward home soon as overseas businesses return to the US. I hope the powers-that-be help make that happen quickly. It sux that politics and big business are in bed together, but that's just how it is. It would bring a whole lot of jobs, though.


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## dseag2 (May 4, 2022)

Don M. said:


> The FED just raised it's rates by .5% today, and its expected that they will do so multiple times this year.  This will have some "temporary"...hopefully...effects on the markets.  Interest rates on mortgages, and credit cards, etc., will be rising, and perhaps slow down some of this inflation.  We may even see bank rates rising....making the money in the bank earn more than a "pittance".


And it did.  The Dow rose 975 points!  I'll take it, based on the losses during first four months of the year.


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## RobinWren (May 4, 2022)

My son  said it best, have you really lost money or have you lost your gains? point taken.


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## Liberty (May 5, 2022)

RobinWren said:


> My son  said it best, have you really lost money or have you lost your gains? point taken.


Yeah, probably most of the money managers are busy talking the newbie's off the ledge during times like this.


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## OneEyedDiva (May 5, 2022)

Looks like the market is going to do a deep dive again today Deb. But yesterday, due to the big recovery, did you find that you regained some of your losses? i regained that $6,000+ that I "lost".

From what you say your invested in, seems like you have a bond fund (or funds). Here's how your investments may be affected by the Feds rise in interest rates if that's the case.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/heres-how-rising-interest-rates-may-affect-your-bond-portfolio-.html


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## Liberty (May 5, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Looks like the market is going to do a deep dive again today Deb. But yesterday, due to the big recovery, did you find that you regained some of your losses? i regained that $6,000+ that I "lost".


The news this morning made what Powell said yesterday seem dated...cost of replacing hires in business is over the top high.  Looks like oil will skyrocket.  Looking forward to losing what we gained a bit yesterday.  Sigh.


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## OneEyedDiva (May 5, 2022)

Liberty said:


> The news this morning made what Powell said yesterday seem dated...cost of replacing hires in business is over the top high.  Looks like oil will skyrocket.  Looking forward to losing what we gained a bit yesterday.  Sigh.


It's like being on a seesaw Liberty!


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## Don M. (May 5, 2022)

The markets are in another major downturn today....over 3%.  This is going to continue until the markets get used to the FED raising rates, etc.  We'll be lucky if the economy doesn't dip into a recession this year. 

I pretty much abandoned the markets in late January....after making some nice gains late last year.  I'm keeping just enough in my IRA to allow the monthly distributions to keep coming for a few more months.....the rest of it is "marking time" in the money market. 

Until the CBOE VIX drops to less than 20, and stays there for weeks, I'm staying on the sidelines.  If the FED continues to raise rates, I may even see some decent returns from the bank accounts.....for the first time in years.


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## debodun (Sep 24, 2022)

My investment is still on its downward spiral. It's lost over $33K in value since January.


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## palides2021 (Sep 24, 2022)

I got out a few months ago, but also lost. Just trying to save what's left.


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## palides2021 (Sep 24, 2022)

debodun said:


> My investment is still on its downward spiral. It's lost over $33K in value since January.


Sorry you experienced that! The market's been acting funny for awhile now. Been tightening my belt as a result.


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## HoneyNut (Sep 24, 2022)

debodun said:


> My investment is still on its downward spiral. It's lost over $33K in value since January.


Mine too, my account has lost almost 14% of its value.  I keep thinking 'oh the price fell, it is a good time to buy' but then I buy and immediately the prices go farther down.  On the early-retirement site someone was saying they were making 7% interest on junk bonds.  So I decided to buy one little junk bond, but my order disappeared, I think someone else must have bought it before I could.


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## Lethe200 (Sep 24, 2022)

Even at age 71, we're still on a long-term strategy; i.e., 5+ years out. We are fortunate, the distribution we take monthly is strictly discretionary.

OTOH, when my spouse reaches 72 we're going to need to adjust our tax strategy, LOL. Very little of our current distribution is taxable, but his RMD will be 100% taxable....ouch.


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## HarryHawk (Sep 24, 2022)

My free advice is worth exactly what you paid for it -

I think things are going to get worse before they get better


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## Don M. (Sep 24, 2022)

HarryHawk said:


> I think things are going to get worse before they get better


Same here.  I agree with most of the "experts" who are saying that we are soon going to be in a recession....if we're not already there.  I doubt that the markets will recover anytime soon....perhaps just an occasional few days of "positive" before they go down even further.  The best indicator, IMO, is the CBOE VIX....it is sitting at nearly 30.  Until it drops below 20, and holds there, or lower, the downturns will likely continue.  With the actions of the FED, rampant inflation, the Ukraine mess, etc., etc., this downturn may be one of the worst in decades.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-survive-the-worst-bear-market-of-all-time-120034754.html


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## dseag2 (Sep 24, 2022)

I've lost lots of value in my investments as well but I'm not withdrawing any money out of equities right now.  It may be a year or more, but I'm sure the market will go back up at some point. Stocks are going to be pretty cheap if the market keeps falling, and smart investors will go back in and snatch up good deals. 

My broker set aside enough cash to cover my mother's expenses in assisted living, and since she passed last November the remainder will most likely last me until the end of 2023.  I'm very conservative in the cash I withdraw each month.  I took Social Security at 63.  Combined with that, I have just enough to pay my bills.  We spend on travel and entertainment, but we are still conservative.  I was planning on meeting a friend on a Mexico cruise in November, but we both canceled. 

I will be 65 next month, and god willing, I will have enough to ride out the ups and downs in the market.  It's pretty bleak right now, but I'm in it for the long haul.  My father lived to 78 y/o (unexpected preventable death) and my mother lived to 89 y/o, so hopefully I have some time.


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## rasmusjc (Sep 24, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


There is a guy on youtube (themoneygps) that I watch almost daily that seems to be pulling out some info others aren't talking about.  He doesn't give investing advice, but I do think he is close to what I've been seeing in the markets.  Just my opinion, but I fear things are going to get tougher before getting easier again worldwide.  Sorry.  I hope I'm wrong.


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## sch404 (Sep 24, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


Its inflation and the Fed's response to inflation, raining interest rates by a significant amount in a rather short time interval.. Your and my stock investments are being repriced accordingly. Until you sell an investment you haven't actually lost or gained anything.


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## SeniorBen (Sep 24, 2022)

I took a drive to the mountains yesterday and saw a lot of for sale signs in front of houses. That may be a canary in the coal mine.


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## dseag2 (Sep 24, 2022)

SeniorBen said:


> I took a drive to the mountains yesterday and saw a lot of for sale signs in front of houses. That may be a canary in the coal mine.


Housing prices are dropping due to rising interest rates.  We still have only 2 months of inventory in Dallas, but that is compared to 1 month a short time ago.  The ideal situation is 6 months of inventory.  I, selfishly, am glad to see it because we have no intention of selling, yet our property taxes have risen an enormous amount due to the shortage of inventory and the valuation of our house.


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## David777 (Sep 24, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. *Can anyone explain this?*


Yeah simple common sense math logic.  
Because with gambling, results are not certain even when what ends up occurring was a long shot.  

Especially when securities are overly positively promoted and analytically valued as a result of commercial advisors with at least in part their own agendas that will depend in part on other business associates and companies.


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## Timewise 60+ (Sep 25, 2022)

All who own stocks and bonds are seeing a downturn in the value of those investments.  Understand that this loss in value does not become a true loss in value unless you sell it.  It only becomes a true loss in value if you cash in some of those devalued stocks and bonds.  Follow me on this...if you have lost 30% in value and your original value was $100 dollars, the shares are now only worth $70, yet the number of shares you own is the same.  Jump forward a year after you sold your stocks and the same investments are now back to $100, but you only have $70 to buy back into the market.  Your loss is real...

Historically, the American stock market has NEVER stayed low, it has always come back and then exceeded its original values.  I am 72 now and I have been through many of these drops in market value, but I have always held tight and waited until the market comes back up.   It always has and I have never lost any value from these drops in market conditions...if the market never came back, our country would be destitute and all investments, including gold, silver, and our actual cash would become worthless, or at least hold very little value...

So, I say, hold tight and wait it out.    Unless of course you rely on selling your stocks and bonds for month to month living expenses.   Something you should never do...even in retirement...but that's a completely different story...


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## StarSong (Sep 25, 2022)

SeniorBen said:


> I took a drive to the mountains yesterday and saw a lot of for sale signs in front of houses. That may be a canary in the coal mine.


Which mountains?


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## oldmontana (Sep 25, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


Investment income on the decline again​We do not find that to be true.  We are retired and get our SS and stock dividends in the same amount.  No change.

Yes, our stocks have gone down about 20% but so far all our stocks have not reduced their dividends.  If fact two have increased their dividends.


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## Liberty (Sep 25, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> All who own stocks and bonds are seeing a downturn in the value of those investments.  Understand that this loss in value does not become a true loss in value unless you sell it.  It only becomes a true loss in value if you cash in some of those devalued stocks and bonds.  Follow me on this...if you have lost 30% in value and your original value was $100 dollars, the shares are now only worth $70, yet the number of shares you own is the same.  Jump forward a year after you sold your stocks and the same investments are now back to $100, but you only have $70 to buy back into the market.  Your loss is real...
> 
> Historically, the American stock market has NEVER stayed low, it has always come back and then exceeded its original values.  I am 72 now and I have been through many of these drops in market value, but I have always held tight and waited until the market comes back up.   It always has and I have never lost any value from these drops in market conditions...if the market never came back, our country would be destitute and all investments, including gold, silver, and our actual cash would become worthless, or at least hold very little value...
> 
> So, I say, hold tight and wait it out.    Unless of course you rely on selling your stocks and bonds for month to month living expenses.   Something you should never do...even in retirement...but that's a completely different story...


Yep, you "lock in your losses" when you sell stocks/bonds during a downturn...listen to Timewise 60 - 
hold on to your shares and don't get "spooked". The two days that matter  when investing in the market are the day you buy and the day you sell.


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## bowmore (Sep 25, 2022)

debodun said:


> My investment isn't in the Stock Market. I have Franklin Fund tax free securities. I am not panicking, just curious. The worst thing peple do in an economic downturn is start pulling money out of their investments. That's what caused the Stock Market crash in 1929. Sell! Sell! Sell!


Deb, The reason the fund is down is because interest rates have gone up. For example. if you have a $100 bond paying 2%, and interest rates go up to 3%, the value of the bond decreases to $66.67.
One main thing that caused the '29 crash was you could buy stock on 10% margin. If the stock declined more than 10% you were forced to sell, and the effect cascaded.


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## dseag2 (Sep 25, 2022)

My father was a financial advisor, and when he retired prior to the advent of the internet he would watch the ticker tape on TV all day.  He was a worrier, and he got so depressed at times when he saw the value of his portfolio decline.  He ended up passing away with much more money than he could ever spend, so I refuse to worry and become obsessed with how my investments are doing with the latest decline in the market.  I learned a lot from my father, both good and bad.

BTW, my mother lived another 21 years, so a large portion of what he left was spent on her housing bills and assisted living.  Most of what I have in the market these days is the result of socking the maximum amount of my paycheck into my 401k for over 30 years.

To others' points about only realizing a loss when you sell, I received a pretty significant number of shares of Carnival Corporation stock as severance when my job was eliminated.  Prior to Covid, it was valued at over $40 per share.  When I received it, it was valued at $14 per share.  It is now valued at under $10 per share, so if I sold I would realize a significant loss.  I'm holding onto it.


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## Timewise 60+ (Sep 26, 2022)

dseag2...sighting one example of a failing companies stock drop has nothing to do with a stock market slump!  

This post could be misleading to many who are not familiar with the markets.   

Are you suggesting people should sell all their stocks or even some of their stocks during this downturn?


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## Don M. (Sep 26, 2022)

Once again, the markets are starting the week with a downturn, and the VIX is above 30....more "volatility" ahead.


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## StarSong (Sep 26, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> dseag2...sighting one example of a failing companies stock drop has nothing to do with a stock market slump!
> 
> This post could be misleading to many who are not familiar with the markets.
> 
> *Are you suggesting people should sell all their stocks or even some of their stocks during this downturn?*


I interpreted @dseag2's  post as delivering exactly the opposite message.  He's hanging tough because he's pretty sure Carnival (and other stocks) will rebound.  For his sake, I sure hope it will.  

I have zero tolerance for the stock market.  Never have had.  My siblings and I (and our spouses) are extremely risk-averse.  We watched our father play the market like a rabid gambler at a blackjack table. Ultimately, he probably made more than he lost, but there were times when he lost big on stocks and commodities. (I remember an unhappy evening in the early 70s when he took a $35,000 bath on pork bellies. There was zero joy in Mudville that night.) 

When the stock market tanked at various points, so did his portfolio, but like most inveterate gamblers, he couldn't resist the market's siren song for very long.  Lucky for the him and the family, he was a very high earner so we had ample money to live, but the steady underlying drumbeat his children heard was that the markets weren't to be trusted.      

A friend has become a day trader after retiring as a dentist. It doesn't appear he's terribly successful at it, but like my father he loves the thrill of the chase.

Obviously other people's experiences and risk tolerances are different, but I have zero dollars in the stock market and am happy to not be tossing and turning over my investments every night.


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## rgp (Sep 26, 2022)

Well, I'm down to just one stock @ this point. I have a meeting with a financial/investment advisor Thursday......so I'll let ya know.


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## bowmore (Sep 26, 2022)

I am a buy and hold investor. My portfolio is down, but since I do not need the money right now, I will let it ride.


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## Lara (Sep 26, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> All who own stocks and bonds are seeing a downturn in the value of those investments.  Understand that this loss in value does not become a true loss in value unless you sell it.  It only becomes a true loss in value if you cash in some of those devalued stocks and bonds.  Follow me on this...if you have lost 30% in value and your original value was $100 dollars, the shares are now only worth $70, yet the number of shares you own is the same.  Jump forward a year after you sold your stocks and the same investments are now back to $100, but you only have $70 to buy back into the market.  Your loss is real...


Your advice is true if you are going to be around long-term but over the age of 70 who knows? I saw the decline coming because of our country's "situation". it's still dropping. It may recover in my lifetime or it may not....risk is increasing. Question I faced was, do I want to wait to see if death comes first or if the stock market recovers first, while missing out on a vibrant part of my life and giving up on my dream.

I saw an opportunity to move my stock investment to another healthier investment...prime ocean view real estate that will bring excellent rental income as well as hold it's value and grow substantially since it's a beach house (it already has)....purchased land December of 2020 where I could build a house using the sale of my previous house and a large chunk of change from my stocks. I know the housing market and rents may decline but I know I'll make it through that just fine.

I knew if I delayed, I risked the market continuing to decline...it has...but the house is paid for now. I've never had a loan because I prefer 
no-debt. I know creative financing works for some but I'm not comfortable with debt. Yes, I will pay IRS taxes bigtime for this stock market "income". It's worth it to me. I'll have rental income. And I have enough left to pay IRS (although I don't have a final tally yet). Even if I didn't, a plan with IRS could be paid with rental income (house also has a small apartment I can stay in during rental season).

Some may say...but you're in a hurricane prone state. Yes, but I've made sure my builders are focused on structural integrity to withstand a hurricane, it's being inspected almost weekly...also, my son-in-law own's a contracting business, and I have insurance. 

Lot's of risks I'm willing to take on. I'm now here full time on the island as we do the finishing touches. The state of the country has been a challenge with delays but I'm almost there...perhaps a very Merry Christmas present.


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## rasmusjc (Sep 26, 2022)

Lara said:


> Your advice is true if you are going to be around long-term but over the age of 70 who knows? I saw the decline coming because of our country's "situation". it's still dropping. It may recover in my lifetime or it may not....risk is increasing. Question I faced was, do I want to wait to see if death comes first or if the stock market recovers first, while missing out on a vibrant part of my life and giving up on my dream.
> 
> I saw an opportunity to move my stock investment to another healthier investment...prime ocean view real estate that will bring excellent rental income as well as hold it's value and grow substantially since it's a beach house (it already has)....purchased land December of 2020 where I could build a house using the sale of my previous house and a large chunk of change from my stocks. I know the housing market and rents may decline but I know I'll make it through that just fine.
> 
> ...



I really think that 'no debt' might be the key to riding out this recession.  We paid off all of our debts before I retired.


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## ManjaroKDE (Sep 26, 2022)

June into early July was my latest foray into the stock market, back in my 30s & 40s I was heavily invested.  Done fairly well on my own but then other interests took over, (children getting older, marriages & all).

This summer I was looking at & buying dividend stocks.  I got too nervous being that I was deeply entrenched into my 'Golden Years' & my time to recover was closing fast.  I got out completely, made a few hundred on trades.  Switched to cash, CDs, I Bonds & higher yielding savings, safer but boring.  Glad I did.  Left the risk investing to the Buffett wanta-bes.  Good luck to all!


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## dseag2 (Sep 26, 2022)

StarSong said:


> I interpreted @dseag2's  post as delivering exactly the opposite message.  He's hanging tough because he's pretty sure Carnival (and other stocks) will rebound.  For his sake, I sure hope it will.


Thank you, and that was exactly the message I was delivering.


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## dseag2 (Sep 26, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> dseag2...sighting one example of a failing companies stock drop has nothing to do with a stock market slump!
> 
> This post could be misleading to many who are not familiar with the markets.
> 
> Are you suggesting people should sell all their stocks or even some of their stocks during this downturn?


First, Carnival Corp is not a "failing" company.

Secondly, you completely misinterpreted my post.  I was encouraging people to hold onto stocks so as not to realize a loss.  I was using one example, where I have chosen to hold onto stocks and not realize a loss.  Did you not see that I Liked your post?  I guess not.


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## Don M. (Sep 26, 2022)

rasmusjc said:


> I really think that 'no debt' might be the key to riding out this recession.  We paid off all of our debts before I retired.


THAT Is the Most Important thing a person can do to prepare for retirement.  House, car, credit card, etc., debt is a Huge drain on retirement resources.


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## dseag2 (Sep 26, 2022)

rasmusjc said:


> I really think that 'no debt' might be the key to riding out this recession.  We paid off all of our debts before I retired.


Absolutely.  Our house is paid for.  My car is paid for.  We installed new windows, new flooring, new A/C units, a new water heater, new refrigerator, new washer, etc. when I was working and could afford it.  Now it is just paying the monthly bills.  Hopefully we can ride out inflation, a possible Recession and the market downturn.


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## OneEyedDiva (Sep 26, 2022)

Deb, I was talking on the phone with my BFF a couple of months ago and gasped. She asked me what was wrong. I was checking my portfolio on Yahoo Finance and saw that I'd lost $25,000 that day. But the market bounced back so almost all of that was regained. Now it's down again and from what I read yesterday by an analyst, we can expect it to be this way for quite awhile. According to him, we haven't reached bottom yet. Whatever the market does, I'm in it for the long haul.


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## debodun (Sep 27, 2022)

One of my maternal uncles gave me one of the best pieces of advice I've ever received. One day, when I was in my 20s, he asked me when I was going to get married. I replied that I hadn't planned to. Then he said, "If you don't get married you'd better be one of three things - smart, pretty or rich." That's when I started saving my money.


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## StarSong (Sep 27, 2022)

debodun said:


> One of my maternal uncles gave me one of the best pieces of advice I've ever received. One day, when I was in my 20s, he asked me when I was going to get married. I replied that I hadn't planned to. Then he said, "If you don't get married you'd better be one of three things - smart, pretty or rich." That's when I started saving my money.


Inheritances can also be a big help with the retirement bottom line.


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## Timewise 60+ (Sep 27, 2022)

StarSong said:


> I interpreted @dseag2's  post as delivering exactly the opposite message.  He's hanging tough because he's pretty sure Carnival (and other stocks) will rebound.  For his sake, I sure hope it will.
> 
> I have zero tolerance for the stock market.  Never have had.  My siblings and I (and our spouses) are extremely risk-averse.  We watched our father play the market like a rabid gambler at a blackjack table. Ultimately, he probably made more than he lost, but there were times when he lost big on stocks and commodities. (I remember an unhappy evening in the early 70s when he took a $35,000 bath on pork bellies. There was zero joy in Mudville that night.)
> 
> ...


The American Stock Market has fully recovered 100% of the time following a decline in stock values...that's a good record!  But, you have to 'stay the course' or you will take losses.


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## Timewise 60+ (Sep 27, 2022)

Lara said:


> Your advice is true if you are going to be around long-term but over the age of 70 who knows? I saw the decline coming because of our country's "situation". it's still dropping. It may recover in my lifetime or it may not....risk is increasing. Question I faced was, do I want to wait to see if death comes first or if the stock market recovers first, while missing out on a vibrant part of my life and giving up on my dream.
> 
> I saw an opportunity to move my stock investment to another healthier investment...prime ocean view real estate that will bring excellent rental income as well as hold it's value and grow substantially since it's a beach house (it already has)....purchased land December of 2020 where I could build a house using the sale of my previous house and a large chunk of change from my stocks. I know the housing market and rents may decline but I know I'll make it through that just fine.
> 
> ...


I agree with your comments, as you made your decisions based on a good understanding of the market and associated risks (unlike many).  You are right in that you cannot take it with you, so why not enjoy some of it now!  Be happy, have some fun, and good luck!


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## rgp (Sep 27, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> I agree with your comments, as you made your decisions based on a good understanding of the market and associated risks (unlike many).  You are right in that you cannot take it with you, so why not enjoy some of it now!  Be happy, have some fun, and good luck!



  "You are right in that you cannot take it with you, so why not enjoy some of it now! Be happy, have some fun, and good luck!"

  I am begining to think that* is* the answer ....... I'm thinking Porsche.


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## StarSong (Sep 27, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> The American Stock Market has fully recovered 100% of the time following a decline in stock values...that's a good record!  But, you have to 'stay the course' or you will take losses.


This is true, but only from a macro perspective. Yes, the S & P 500, DJ Industrial Average 30, and the Nasdaq Composite have all eventually recovered from downturns 100% of the time.  But individual stocks and funds do not necessarily fully rebound after bear markets and other declines.    

Nasdaq recovered from the dot-com bubble implosion between 2000-2002 when it fell 78% in 19 months, but many companies on the Nasdaq never came back.  Pets.com comes immediately to mind, but it sure wasn't the only one.   

The stock market crash that started Black Monday (Oct 28, 1929) needed 25 years (November 23, 1954) to return to its all time high.


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## David777 (Sep 27, 2022)

I have few remaining assets in equities.  So current situation is a yawn. Since retirement, savings only in trivial interest banks, that have of course shrunk due to inflation, mainly because have been unmotivated to bother despite regularly being pummeled by investment mailings.   Probably because I've had a Platinum Visa card a long time.  Gaining a few extra bucks each year from usual investments like dividends is chump change that wouldn't change anything in my life squat.  So seem to have lucked out.


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## StarSong (Sep 27, 2022)

I've bought some US government I-Bonds that are yielding roughly 9% interest right now.  We'll purchase more as the government permits.  (DH & I can buy a combined $30K per calendar year.)


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## Timewise 60+ (Sep 27, 2022)

StarSong said:


> This is true, but only from a macro perspective. Yes, the S & P 500, DJ Industrial Average 30, and the Nasdaq Composite have all eventually recovered from downturns 100% of the time.  But individual stocks and funds do not necessarily fully rebound after bear markets and other declines.
> 
> Nasdaq recovered from the dot-com bubble implosion between 2000-2002 when it fell 78% in 19 months, but many companies on the Nasdaq never came back.  Pets.com comes immediately to mind, but it sure wasn't the only one.
> 
> The stock market crash that started Black Monday (Oct 28, 1929) needed 25 years (November 23, 1954) to return to its all-time high.


We have a mix of stocks and bonds 60/40.  We have been in the market since 1975.  Our investments have always trended up, lots of ups and downs, but they always have recovered and then grown.  Overall, our growth has exceeded our expectations.  Of course, some companies have failed during that time.  We are diversified never putting more than $5k to $6k into any one stock, so a company failure is not noticed in our growth/ returns over the year.   We also take advantage of mutual funds and indexed funds, again as part of diversification.   Since we have been retired, we are very conservative in our investments, not taking much risk, we just focus and safe slow growing funds.


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## Nosy Bee-54 (Sep 27, 2022)

I guess it all depends on a person's situation. I don't check my investments on a regular basis. I'm in for the long haul (Thank you, John Bogle!). All that daily checking must be causing a whole lot of stomach churning.

I live off my current retirement income. Plus I have enough cash set aside to survive for 3 years if need be. Sure, it doesn't earn much but it's easily accessible. Won't have to take RMDs for another 4 years, so I don't need to stress the ups/downs of the market.

As someone else mentioned, living debt free makes life easier. I'm a minimalist with paid off house and car. My main expenses are routine monthly bills and as many cruises as I can go on yearly. At least I can take the experiences/memories of the latter with me.


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## C50 (Sep 27, 2022)

David777 said:


> I have few remaining assets in equities.  So current situation is a yawn. Since retirement, savings only in trivial interest banks, that have of course shrunk due to inflation, mainly because have been unmotivated to bother despite regularly being pummeled by investment mailings.   Probably because I've had a Platinum Visa card a long time.  Gaining a few extra bucks each year from usual investments like dividends is chump change that wouldn't change anything in my life squat.  So seem to have lucked out.



I kind of did the same as you, I have a lot of cash that may not keeping up with inflation but stays nice and consistent when I check balances.   At retirement I moved all my 401(k) money over to fixed interest accounts.  I do still have a chunk of money in the market but if it disappears my life won't change, though my kids would inherite less.

When planning retirement I never depended on market growth or pacing inflation to have money to live. I'm conservative enough that I planned to live on tangible assets, not dividens or capital gains, or interest earned money.


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## StarSong (Sep 27, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> I agree with your comments, as you made your decisions based on a good understanding of the market and associated risks (unlike many)


Not everyone has the same risk tolerance.  It has nothing to do with understanding markets, investments, financial opportunities, their associated risks.  People choose based on individual financial situations, comfort zones, and in some cases, their religion.      

This isn't a one-size-fits-all world.


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## Don M. (Sep 27, 2022)

With all this market volatility, and increasing sentiment about a coming major recession, I'm almost tempted to buy some Silver....precious metals may double or triple in price in a few months.


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## Timewise 60+ (Sep 28, 2022)

StarSong said:


> Not everyone has the same risk tolerance.  It has nothing to do with understanding markets, investments, financial opportunities, their associated risks.  People choose based on individual financial situations, comfort zones, and in some cases, their religion.
> 
> This isn't a one-size-fits-all world.


Suggesting that having an understanding of markets, investments, etc. is not a part of managing and individuals' investments is goofy!  No one suggested one must be an expert, but a fundamental understanding is important.  

Stating that risk tolerance is different for everyone...is stating the obvious as is commenting on how fundamentally people may choose investments.... as not everyone has the same perspective, knowledge, or level of income...

When someone offers life experiences for others to consider does not suggest that they somehow think 'one size fits all'!  Where does that idea you have come from?


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## Brookswood (Sep 28, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


At the risk of sounding like a wise-guy, if you don't know why, then you might have to rethink your investments.    You have some homework to do.  In the vernacular of the investment trade it's called 'due diligence'.     There's no reason to panic.  It's not rocket science. Well, that assumes you didn't invest in complicated investment products like certain variable  annuities that literally have dozens of pages of legal verbiage. Then it's worse then rocket science.


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## Brookswood (Sep 28, 2022)

Don M. said:


> With all this market volatility, and increasing sentiment about a coming major recession, I'm almost tempted to buy some Silver....precious metals may double or triple in price in a few months.


Why do you think they may double or triple?


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## Brookswood (Sep 28, 2022)

Note:   IMO, beware people who will try to sell you all types of inflation hedges.  I notice that with interest rates rising and stock and  bond prices falling, the annuity sales companies are starting to brag about how nobody ever lost a cent buying an annuity from the Apple Pie Insurance company. Well, yes, unless one factors in inflation, sales charges, etc. 

I am not anti-annuity. They have their place such as single premium immediate annuities (SPIA for short). But avoid complicated ones that you don't fully understand. And even SPIA's are subject to inflation's ruinous effects on investments.


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## rgp (Sep 30, 2022)

rgp said:


> Well, I'm down to just one stock @ this point. I have a meeting with a financial/investment advisor Thursday......so I'll let ya know.




  Well, I did meet with him yesterday. He advises, hold on to my one stock, partially due to the fact that I would face a serious tax hit if I sold it , and he feels it will recover value in the coming months ... maybe a year or more. Selling it for cash would cost me big time .

He is going to annalize my annuities , and let me know what he then advises .

He said just to leave my regular bank savings be .... they are what they are, and no one really offers any better.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

Brookswood said:


> Why do you think they may double or triple?


Silver being a commodity will plunge in a tight money recession …look at 2008 …


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## Timewise 60+ (Oct 1, 2022)

Federal Treasury Certificates rates go up when the economy is failing.  They already have some attractive rates on 2 year T bills...check it out!  No risk, unlike all other investments...


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> Federal Treasury Certificates rates go up when the economy goes down.  They already have some attractive rates on 2 year T bills...check it out!  No risk, unlike all other investments...


Not quite ….

rates rise when the economy isn’t coming down and the fed tries to slow it down 

we have very low unemployment and worker shortages and supply chain issues driving up inflation .

eventually when the economy slows and inflation comes down the fed reduces rates to avoid the mistakes Japan made


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## Timewise 60+ (Oct 1, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Not quite ….
> 
> rates rise when the economy isn’t coming down and the fed tries to slow it down
> 
> ...


Surely you know what I meant!  Down was the wrong word, I should have said when the economy is failing, Fed rates go up!


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> Surely you know what I meant!  Down was the wrong word, I should have said when the economy is failing, Fed rates go up!


the problem is so far we are not failing.   that is why rates are rising ...it may not be good for assets but markets and the economy are rarely linked .

so far only one out of every 5 homes has even lowered their price .

the economy fails when unemployment goes up .

we have very low unemployment and big pressure on rising  wages  which is why the fed is raising rates .

how ever the fed cant fix the problems with rates for the most part .

we need more workers . we need more chips .... one third of the whole increase in the cpi is new and used car prices


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## bingo (Oct 1, 2022)

the  debt bubble  is going to pop!
central banks...that includes  federal  reserve...are buying the debt for now...that's  gonna  stop...then it won't  matter  what you were investing in...wiped out!


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

bingo said:


> the  debt bubble  is going to pop!
> central banks...that includes  federal  reserve...are buying the debt for now...that's  gonna  stop...then it won't  matter  what you were investing in...wiped out!


We are still the best horse at the glue factory .

the dollar is soaring and our dollars and bonds are in demand world wide.what ever the fed doesn’t buy is still snatched up world wide


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## HoneyNut (Oct 1, 2022)

rgp said:


> He said just to leave my regular bank savings be .... they are what they are, and no one really offers any better.


I learned this summer that with a tiny bit of effort we can do better with our savings by buying secondary Treasuries.  

So for example, my plan was that every three months I would transfer money from my investment account to my bank savings account to last for the quarter, but my bank only pays .5% interest (annual rate), while instead I can buy a Treasury Bill for almost any little length of time that will earn five times as much interest.  Of course there are a few days for settling and transferring but it still comes out as significantly more interest dollars.

The downside is more interest will mean more taxes but I'm still too new at all this to figure out when it would make more sense to leave it in a lower-yielding dividend-paying money market investment until I really need the cash in my bank account.

I'd gone into the Fidelity office last June and they taught me what to look at to make a buying decision, and it really just boils down to look at the Maturity Date, and the Yield to Maturity, and then if you aren't able to meet the minimum purchase (such as if it says 100 in parentheses in the Price/Qty(min) column, that means to get that rate of return you need to invest $100,000), drill down in the 'Depth of Book' column to find someone selling at almost that good of rate but letting you buy as few as you want (I learned this from the early retirement forum a few weeks ago).

For example, if yesterday I'd had $3000 that I want to transfer to my bank on Oct 15, I could have meanwhile used the money to buy THREE bonds that mature on Oct 13 that earn an as-if annual rate of 2.549%.


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## Brookswood (Oct 1, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> Federal Treasury Certificates rates go up when the economy is failing.  They already have some attractive rates on 2 year T bills...check it out!  No risk, unlike all other investments...


There is no risk only if one does not include the effect of inflation.   Assuming inflation remains where it is (I don't know if it will or won't) there will be a loss in real terms. Upon manturity you won't be able to buy as much as you did when you invested.    That's a risk.

Treasuries may be the best deal around and better than the alternatives.   I just want people to know that the value of their dollars - how much those dollars can buy - is at risk.


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## Brookswood (Oct 1, 2022)

bingo said:


> the  debt bubble  is going to pop!
> central banks...that includes  federal  reserve...are buying the debt for now...that's  gonna  stop...then it won't  matter  what you were investing in...wiped out!


Wiped out!   I think not.

Panicking is not a good way to limit the damage caused by inflation. And right now that is where we are, limiting the damage. We know inflation is hurting us and will continue to do so. How do we limit the damage so we can recover better in the future is the question.

Thankfully, the dollar is strong. That may help to cut a bit off of the inflation rate as we can buy more stuff from other countries compared to just a few months ago with the same number of dollars.   It's not a cure for inflation, but at this point I will take all the help I can get.

Naturally, most of the above  is just my opinion.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

Creek Pirate said:


> If we are lucky, things may slow this down turn after Nov. but a complete turn around won't happen for about 3 years. best thing is become a little frugal and try to live on your fixed income and reduce selling your investments to allow them to recoup. Retirees are going to have it hard for awhile with high inflation and no / slow market growth


looking at countries around the world who had inflation issues , it took anywhere from the 6 to 35 years to get double digits fit inflation back to 2% from double digits with an average of ten years


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## Timewise 60+ (Oct 1, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> the problem is so far we are not failing.   that is why rates are rising ...it may not be good for assets but markets and the economy are rarely linked .
> 
> so far only one out of every 5 homes has even lowered their price .
> 
> ...


Nothing like 'word smithing' with a 'beancounter' and/or 'math major'!  So I move on...


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

Timewise 60+ said:


> Nothing like 'word smithing' with a 'beancounter' and/or 'math major'!  So I move on...


Eco 101 says when the economy fails and slows rates must come down , not rise .

rates rise to cool the economy and slow it down when it gets to hot.

unemployment is still near record lows ..that isn’t a failing economy


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## bowmore (Oct 1, 2022)

rgp said:


> Well, I did meet with him yesterday. He advises, hold on to my one stock, partially due to the fact that I would face a serious tax hit if I sold it , and he feels it will recover value in the coming months ... maybe a year or more. Selling it for cash would cost me big time .
> 
> He is going to annalize my annuities , and let me know what he then advises .
> 
> He said just to leave my regular bank savings be .... they are what they are, and no one really offers any better.


I would run from anyone pushing annuities.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 1, 2022)

bowmore said:


> I would run from anyone pushing annuities.


The only annuities to consider are spia’s and those aren’t pushed …

you pretty much have to go buy them on your own since there is little in it for a salesman


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## rgp (Oct 2, 2022)

bowmore said:


> I would run from anyone pushing annuities.



 He is not 'pushing' annuities, I have held mine for some time now, and both have done well for me. But it might be time to cash them out. I just hope i can avoid a big tax hit there as well.


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## Brookswood (Oct 2, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> The only annuities to consider are spia’s and those aren’t pushed …
> 
> you pretty much have to go buy them on your own since there is little in it for a salesman


FWIW, even though it's not an annuity, is to delay social security as long as possible. Full COLA, 8% a year increase for every year its delayed and backed by the the guy who owns the money printing press.


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## debodun (Oct 3, 2022)

I checked the value of my investment account and it's dropped another $9,200 from last month $42,000 since January!


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## mathjak107 (Oct 3, 2022)

Brookswood said:


> FWIW, even though it's not an annuity, is to delay social security as long as possible. Full COLA, 8% a year increase for every year its delayed and backed by the the guy who owns the money printing press.


It is actually an 8% increase off your fra amount each year . So it isn’t a compounded 8% increase each year .

It has zero return though until you make up the checks you gave up delaying , any spousal you didn’t get and any money that was spent down so you could delay .

So you may see zero return for as much as 22 years.

so one should never equate the ss increase to a return on investment


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## Don M. (Oct 3, 2022)

Brookswood said:


> FWIW, even though it's not an annuity, is to delay social security as long as possible. Full COLA, 8% a year increase for every year its delayed and backed by the the guy who owns the money printing press.


Delaying SS might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live.  Waiting until age 70 to claim benefits is of little value if they only live to age 71,  I signed up as soon as I became eligible, and my wife began receiving spousal benefits when she became eligible.  Adding it all up, we've received several times what I paid in over my working career....wish some of my other "investments" were doing that well.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 3, 2022)

Don M. said:


> Delaying SS might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live.  Waiting until age 70 to claim benefits is of little value if they only live to age 71,  I signed up as soon as I became eligible, and my wife began receiving spousal benefits when she became eligible.  Adding it all up, we've received several times what I paid in over my working career....wish some of my other "investments" were doing that well.


Well dead is dead …so game over .

the bigger question is what if I or my spouse live .

many need to defer to get larger survivor benefits for a spouse …

others have other sources of income .

so ss can be treated like buying a longevity annuity…there are loads of reasons one may delay , including spending down retirement money to avoid future rmds or Medicare surcharges .

others may be doing roth conversions or trying to get aca subsidies


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## HarryHawk (Oct 3, 2022)

To me, it makes sense to plan that either you and/or your spouse is going to live a long time.  If you happen to both die young, who cares?

Of course if you need the money now, you need the money now.


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## dseag2 (Oct 3, 2022)

I took Social Security at 63, when my job was eliminated.  I have no intention of going back into the job market, and I would rather keep my money in equities and forego any increases in Social Security.  No, the market isn't doing well these days, but it was up over 700 points today, so there is still a chance for increases above what Social Security can provide.


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## bowmore (Oct 3, 2022)

debodun said:


> I checked the value of my investment account and it's dropped another $9,200 from last month $42,000 since January!


Still adrop in the bucket of your $1 million


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## kburra (Oct 3, 2022)

Ours dropped $6,000 past few months, and the adviser said will only get worse, closed the account and transferred all to fix term investment at the bank (3 years at 3%) although if want to redeem some money from it, there is a small withdraw payment. Our main concern was the way the stock market is, and getting worse how long before we lose the lot?


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

Glad your advisor has a crystal ball as to what’s next …instead of being a lowly advisor with that predicting power he should be a billionaire


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## kburra (Oct 4, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Glad your advisor has a crystal ball as to what’s next …instead of being a lowly advisor with that predicting power he should be a billionaire


Hardly need a crystal ball!
How much has the stock market dropped in 2022?

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has dropped *nearly 33 percent* so far in 2022, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 20 percent while the world's best-known cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, shed nearly 60 percent of its value.4 days ago!!


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

your Post makes it sound like he pulled you out after the fall not at the highs …

so yea ,if he recently pulled you out and said we have a lot more to go then how the heck would he know that ..

we are likely closer to a bottom .

getting out is easy , just sell .

the real hard part is getting back in .

most people end up either not going back and giving up more then they saved  by bailing out over   time ..the rest dip their toes and miss the biggest gains before they get back in all they pulled out .

the answer is no one knows how much more we have to go.

any advisor that tells me flee my investments  ,that they know we have a lot more to go ,is one I would avoid.

those Who predict have awful records of predicting….

no one can predict the worst days to be out and few can predict even the worst time frames to be out on a broader scale

as they end up missing the juiciest gains .

on the other hand , not missing the best days is easy , just let long term investments ride through .

University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year. miss those few days and you hurt your return .

It is near impossible to not only reliably miss the worst days but it is just as hard to miss the worst time…

catching the best days is easy as pie ... just be invested . NO PREDICTING NEEDED .


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

HarryHawk said:


> To me, it makes sense to plan that either you and/or your spouse is going to live a long time.  If you happen to both die young, who cares?
> 
> Of course if you need the money now, you need the money now.


Many who delay wait years to first spend more when ss kicks in …

that's nuts in my opinion .

rather the budget should stay the same inflation adjusted no matter if one delays or not .

all that should happen is you lay out the ss upfront you aren’t getting if you take it early and put it back later when the bigger check kicks in .

if one has to wait to spend more they likely can’t afford to delay


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

Never forget harry browns rule number one 

1. No one can predict the future. Period.​No one has the foggiest idea what’s going to happen next week, let alone next year. The future is an inherently uncertain place that changes all the time. No one - absolutely no one - is omniscient.

That includes YOU. Beware Excessive Self-Regard Tendency. It’s tempting to believe that you have insights that others don’t have, and see things others can’t (or don’t) see. It’s also tempting to believe other people, like advisors or fund managers, have this capability. They don’t.

Embracing the uncertainty and change that exists in the world is the first step toward becoming a sane investor. Once you truly grok the truth that the future is essentially unpredictable, you stop trying - and you stop making stupid mistakes that lose money, which helps you get better results.


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## HarryHawk (Oct 4, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> Never forget harry browns rule number one
> 
> 1. No one can predict the future. Period.​No one has the foggiest idea what’s going to happen next week, let alone next year. The future is an inherently uncertain place that changes all the time. No one - absolutely no one - is omniscient.
> 
> ...


So you are predicting if you buy and hold you will make money?


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

HarryHawk said:


> So you are predicting if you buy and hold you will make money?


It never happened that if you hold diversified funds for the long term that you don’t …

even at 65 we still have money we won’t eat with for 2-3 decades and that is still long  term money .

in fact a 50/50 HAS NEVER LOST MONEY over any 10 or 20 year period .

did I say ever.


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## debodun (Oct 4, 2022)

bowmore said:


> Still adrop in the bucket of your $1 million


That's not  the point. Even Donald Trump or Bill Gates doesn't like to lose money.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

there are quite a few low ulcer portfolios as well one can use that protect in all but a tight money recession like now ..but these are temporary before they lead to one of the 4 major outcomes .

recession

depression

prosper

high inflation / weak dollar

there are portfolios like Harry brown’s permanent portfolio that can protect in all four of those .

as harry brown said more than  40 years ago , the temporary stage like we are in now will not have any assets do well and he is right as that is where we are today.

but you can’t time when do be in which asset class


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## Brookswood (Oct 4, 2022)

Don M. said:


> Delaying SS might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live.  Waiting until age 70 to claim benefits is of little value if they only live to age 71,  I signed up as soon as I became eligible, and my wife began receiving spousal benefits when she became eligible.  Adding it all up, we've received several times what I paid in over my working career....wish some of my other "investments" were doing that well.


The same could be said of many annuities.

I could also say, "Taking SS at 62 might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live."   Knowing how long we will live works both ways.

I offer the suggestion to those whose situation is such that they may benefit from it. It is a very individual choice and one that many people should consider as an alternative to a traditional single premium immediate annuity (SPIA), IMO.  It should not be dismissed simply because we have no assurance of how long we may live.

Besides in this time of high inflation, getting a 32% bigger check (compared to FRA) that is COLA'd is rather comforting. YMMV.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

Brookswood said:


> The same could be said of many annuities.
> 
> I could also say, "Taking SS at 62 might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live."   Knowing how long we will live works both ways.
> 
> ...


What we found comforting is taking ss earlier and stopping the bleeding from our money fronting ourselves the ss we were not collecting .

we are 7 years into retirement and even with the dip we are ahead of the game then if we delayed and kept spending our own invested dollars or money that could have been invested if we had the ss.

it can take up to age 90  for delaying ss to equal early ss and a balanced portfolio….

even then odds are higher for the balanced portfolio seeing average returns then we do hitting 90


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

Here is a chart showing how long delaying will take to equal early  ss and not spending down a balanced portfolio to delay that ss


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## mathjak107 (Oct 4, 2022)

Here is the internal rate of return of social security….to see the equal of a 5 or 6% return can take more than 3 decages


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## dseag2 (Oct 4, 2022)

No one has a crystal ball, but it is nice to see that the Dow has increased over 1500 points during the last two days.  My philosophy is that 1) there is still interest in the market, 2) it will get close to where I was before the drops or 3) the gains will enable me to ride out the losses that may be ahead.


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## mathjak107 (Oct 5, 2022)

Brookswood said:


> The same could be said of many annuities.
> 
> I could also say, "Taking SS at 62 might be of benefit IF a person knew how long they will live."   Knowing how long we will live works both ways.
> 
> ...


No one should ever buy an annuity before delaying ss first .

there is no commercial annuity one can buy that pays as much , can transfer to a spouse and is cola adjusted …for the amount in checks you give up delaying ss you couldn’t find a better annuity deal


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## leastlongprime (Oct 31, 2022)

^ there is/are the exceptions. 
Income, is everything in retirement [with the aforementioned exceptions] ;-)


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## mathjak107 (Oct 31, 2022)

what ever is that comment supposed to mean ?


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## debodun (Oct 31, 2022)

Lost another $3K+ in October on this investment. Minus $45.3K since January.


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## Disgustedman (Oct 31, 2022)

debodun said:


> I've lost over $10K the last 2 months on my investment account. Can anyone explain this?


I do sympathize with you. In my case, I was eagerly looking forward to retirement in June 2022. However, covid punched me out in Sept, 2021.

So, I had to yank all my 401K out to help me make it till August, 2022. Luckily for ne, the market didn't tank till after I got the money.

There's still company match I had to leave in (5 year time limit) and its lost $200+ but as I'm out of the employment market, I'm not hurting.


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## bingo (Oct 31, 2022)

the giant debt bubble is being sold back and forth thru Central  banks...including  the federal  reserve...watch that 10 year bond yield  bounce like a  rubber ball


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## mathjak107 (Oct 31, 2022)

The fed always over does things both up and down ….

it also  can take 1 to 2 years for rate changes to finally have an effect on the economy .

watch as the fed over does things  and has to reverse course with rates


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## Brookswood (Oct 31, 2022)

I just read the Federal Reserve Bank is losing money.  It seems their interest payments are higher than their interest income.   Imagine that!    

All I can say is that today's interest rates are just starting to approach the rates that I experienced for most of my life until 2008. IOW, we are getting back to a more normal interest rate environment. The War on Savers may be over, or at least we have a cease fire in place.


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## leastlongprime (Oct 31, 2022)

Our Retirement Income is different from our Investments. 
The retirement Income is increased 2022. The Income  will likely increase again in 2023. 
The Investments are highly variable and we do not depend on the Investments. 
YMMV


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## mathjak107 (Nov 1, 2022)

Brookswood said:


> I just read the Federal Reserve Bank is losing money.  It seems their interest payments are higher than their interest income.   Imagine that!
> 
> All I can say is that today's interest rates are just starting to approach the rates that I experienced for most of my life until 2008. IOW, we are getting back to a more normal interest rate environment. The War on Savers may be over, or at least we have a cease fire in place.


You were better off at zero and low inflation then todays rates and 9% inflation


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## leastlongprime (Nov 1, 2022)

^ It was good as long as it lasted. 
Everything is transitory.  low inflation, low interest were nice at the expense of taking on more debt. 
YEMV


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 2, 2022)

leastlongprime said:


> Our Retirement Income is different from our Investments.
> The retirement Income is increased 2022. The Income  will likely increase again in 2023.
> The Investments are highly variable and we do not depend on the Investments.
> YMMV


Care to expound on what ways your income is different than your investments? That is if it's not too personal and something you'd rather not expound on.  Also I'm not familiar with the acronyms YMMV & YEMV.  What do they mean?


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## mathjak107 (Nov 2, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Care to expound on what ways your income is different than your investments? That is if it's not too personal and something you'd rather not expound on.  Also I'm not familiar with the acronyms YMMV & YEMV.  What do they mean?


he uses a lot of annuity income and complex annuity products


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 2, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> he uses a lot of annuity income and complex annuity products


Oh okay. Thank you.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 2, 2022)

Ymmv = your mileage may vary ….in other words you are on your own


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## Brookswood (Nov 2, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> You were better off at zero and low inflation then todays rates and 9% inflation


Agree with that.   But, I was much better off when I could earn 4% on bank accounts with a 2-3% inflation rate.


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## Don M. (Nov 2, 2022)

I just hope we don't see a repeat of the conditions that occurred around 1980.....inflation hit almost 14%, and the Fed Funds rate hit 20%.  Those with lots of money in the bank, back then, were probably cheering.


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## leastlongprime (Nov 2, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> he uses a lot of annuity income and complex annuity products


Our Retirement Income consist:
We purchase market GLWB longevity annuities within IRAs that provide us with Income.
We also purchased SS Income for being employees.
Wife purchased a pension thru her job.
We purchased instruments that guaranteed minimum Income amounts and sold Investment risk to investors.

Our Non Retirement Income consist:
The Investments (IRA and non IRA) are volatile at the whims of my trading. I retain all the risks. The RMD's are reinvested into non-IRA accounts.

We also have a rental. Which kinda have aspects of an annuity and investments.
YRMV

Note: Hybrid annuities, of any type, need Detailed Due Diligence. Annuities (pensions, SS, Immediate, deferred) also need due diligence but are more straight forward in presentation. 
YRMV


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## bowmore (Nov 2, 2022)

Okay, I did some research on Deb's fund:
The Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income Fund *offers an inexpensive way for investors to access a municipal bond portfolio*.
As I think I explained on page 2, the value of the fund is inversely proportional to interest rates.
Simply put, as interest rates go up, the value of the fund goes down, 
But, if you are looking at just the income from the fund, it should not change much.


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## debodun (Nov 3, 2022)

An explanation - thanks, bowmore.


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## Brookswood (Nov 3, 2022)

Don M. said:


> I just hope we don't see a repeat of the conditions that occurred around 1980.....inflation hit almost 14%, and the Fed Funds rate hit 20%.  Those with lots of money in the bank, back then, were probably cheering.





bowmore said:


> Okay, I did some research on Deb's fund:
> The Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income Fund *offers an inexpensive way for investors to access a municipal bond portfolio*.
> As I think I explained on page 2, the value of the fund is inversely proportional to interest rates.
> Simply put, as interest rates go up, the value of the fund goes down,
> But, if you are looking at just the income from the fouund, it should not change much.


The above fund is down about 6.6% this year. Not that bad compared to other bond funds, but not good either.   It has a yield of about 2.8% that should be free of Federal income tax.

I would suggest comparing the net income of the above fund to doing something like buying a 5 year CD at about 4.7% (you can do that today)  and paying taxes on the interest. You need to be in a very high tax bracket to take home more money with the Fund than with a a 5 year CD.  And the CD will ensure you get all you money back when it matures.


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## leastlongprime (Nov 5, 2022)

YMMV=Your Money May Vary, 
YEMV= Your Everything May Vary

"Ymmv = your mileage may vary ….in other words you are on your own"
Sorta. 
You are at the whims of someone/something else. The idea is, You,  control who/what controls your retirement. Some use Golden Portfolio, PP, Stay the Course, 3 or 4 fund, multiple income streams, multiple classes. etc. 
YMMV


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## Pepper (Nov 5, 2022)

Don M. said:


> I just hope we don't see a repeat of the conditions that occurred around 1980.....inflation hit almost 14%, and the Fed Funds rate hit 20%.  *Those with lots of money in the bank, back then, were probably cheering.*


We were.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 6, 2022)

bowmore said:


> Okay, I did some research on Deb's fund:
> The Franklin Federal Tax-Free Income Fund *offers an inexpensive way for investors to access a municipal bond portfolio*.
> As I think I explained on page 2, the value of the fund is inversely proportional to interest rates.
> Simply put, as interest rates go up, the value of the fund goes down,
> But, if you are looking at just the income from the fund, it should not change much.


If anyone only cares about the income and not what the fund is doing I will gladly pay you 1% more but I keep your invested dollars.

oh wait , I just invented the annuity


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## C50 (Nov 6, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> If anyone only cares about the income and not what the fund is doing I will gladly pay you 1% more but I keep your invested dollars.
> 
> oh wait , I just invented the annuity



Explain what you mean by "if anyone only cares about the income and not what the fund is doing".   Also explain how that specifically applies to annuities vs any other types of investments.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 6, 2022)

C50 said:


> Explain what you mean by "if anyone only cares about the income and not what the fund is doing".   Also explain how that specifically applies to annuities vs any other types of investments.


If a fund loses money year after year it doesn’t matter what the interest rate they are paying is ..total return is how investments are actually doing …

with an annuity you give them 100k and they give you an income as an example …if you die you lose what you gave them without costly life insurance riders .

if one has a fund paying a certain interest rate and one does not care about the share value then in effect they bought an annuity since They don’t care what their investment falls to.

retirement incomes are based on total portfolio value , not how much or how one decides to pull that money out


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## oldmontana (Nov 6, 2022)

leastlongprime said:


> Our Retirement Income is different from our Investments.
> The retirement Income is increased 2022. The Income  will likely increase again in 2023.
> The Investments are highly variable and we do not depend on the Investments.
> YMMV


Our problem is inflation not our retirement Income.  Our retirement Income has not gone down it was stayed the same.  Yes, some stocks have gone down in value  but the dividends has not.


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## Brookswood (Nov 6, 2022)

There are lots of ways to generate retirement income.


leastlongprime said:


> YMMV=Your Money May Vary,
> YEMV= Your Everything May Vary
> 
> "Ymmv = your mileage may vary ….in other words you are on your own"
> ...


YMMV  is a way of saying "What I am talking about works for me, but there are no guarantees it will work as well for you. Do you homework and due diligence and figure out if it might work for you."

_Now-it-alls_ and l_oud mouths_ won't use YMMV often because they KNOW more about what is good for you than you do. And they are EXPERTS on EVERYTHING they talk about. YMMV is usually a sign of a thoughtful person who realizes that he/she does not know everything and cannot tell you what to do with any high degree of certainty. That's my take on this subject. YMMV.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 7, 2022)

The whole idea of a safe withdrawal rate is the income level stays the same , even adjusting for inflation in good and bad times .

how that income is arrived at is irrelevant..it can be dividends , interest , appreciation or a combination .

it is all the same


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 9, 2022)

My portfolio is looking a lot better than it did the past two quarters.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 9, 2022)

Last month saw the markets jump 14%


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## Liberty (Nov 10, 2022)

Market will probably be down now until they're sure its "gridlock" in congress...lol.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 10, 2022)

I learned a long time ago don’t try to guess this stuff ….

there is always stuff not even on the radar yet that alters what we think is a given outcome


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## Liberty (Nov 10, 2022)

Yeah, John Bogle said "nobody knows nothing".


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## Liberty (Nov 10, 2022)

Well, looks like it will be a good day on the market...inflation is down a bit - CPI numbers came in good for Oct.


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## Don M. (Nov 10, 2022)

The markets continue their "ups and downs", and will probably do so for the foreseeable future.  Most of the "experts" are still calling for a recession....but, that is just their educated guess.  Much of it probably depends upon the moves by the Fed, and their impacts on inflation.  For now, I'm staying fairly conservative.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 11, 2022)

I will tell you , I am pretty conservative with just 35-40% equities but I do own gold and long term treasuries as well ..yesterday was amazing .

it was the largest gain in my investing life with a one day move of 6 figures …just insane


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## Liberty (Nov 11, 2022)

Yep, fantastic day yesterday...a lot of folks made a lot of money "if they take it out right now."
Only days that matter in the market are the days you put it in and the days you take it out...everything else is watermelon talk - just spitting out the seeds...lol.


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## mathjak107 (Nov 11, 2022)

Actually that really isn’t the case .

each year our draws are set by portfolio balances sell or not .

so what happens in between is very important.

rmds and  the taxes you pay are based on that balance as well .

whether one has Medicare surcharges can depend on those rmds which are dependent on balances as well.

when you think about it there is no difference between say selling your S&P fund and buying a total market fund vs keeping the S&P fund in play .

the outcomes can be the same regardless if you sell or not .

only difference maybe taxes if in a a taxable account .

so the myth of its only on paper if you didn’t sell is just that , a myth .

the only time it matters is if you are down and sell an asset with out the ability to come back as much like going to cash and not reinvesting ..

otherwise it is really just switching pockets around whether you sell and buy something else or not .the money is still in play and varies  daily


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 13, 2022)

mathjak107 said:


> I learned a long time ago don’t try to guess this stuff ….
> 
> there is always stuff not even on the radar yet that alters what we think is a given outcome


Ain't *that* the truth!
@Liberty  I was so sick Thursday till I didn't even check but I got a notification on my tablet from Yahoo Finance that my portfolio was up by 5.53%.


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## Liberty (Nov 13, 2022)

OneEyedDiva said:


> Ain't *that* the truth!
> @Liberty  I was so sick Thursday till I didn't even check but I got a notification on my tablet from Yahoo Finance that my portfolio was up by 5.53%.


Yes, guessing a lot of people went positive for the year!


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## OneEyedDiva (Nov 23, 2022)

As of November 23rd my portfolio is up by about 14% from last quarter.


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## debodun (Dec 1, 2022)

Finally, an upswing - about an $11K one.


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