# Should We Believe in El Nino?



## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

Not really about Global Warming. Maybe we can believe what the meteorologists are saying. Some of it is bound to be media hype, of course. Predicting coffee prices! Sheesh! Jack them up too high, quit drinking the rot! Simple enough. If it somehow doubles gasoline prices, THAT will be discussed heavily: but, how could it? Manipulation. Whaddaya think?

*"It has choked *http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...may-get-worse-as-el-nino-delays-seasonal-rain*Singapore with smoke, triggered *http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...illions-on-storm-path-must-brace-for-flooding*Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Americas, it has Argentines bracing for lower milk production and Californians believing that rain will finally, mercifully fall."

Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950.   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-mayhem-around-the-world?cmpid=yhoo.headline

*






*Anomalies representing deviations from normal temperatures. Abnormally warm temperatures shown in red, cold in blue*


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## Don M. (Oct 22, 2015)

We'll know by Spring if this El Nino creates the conditions the Meteorologists are predicting.  Personally, I would lean toward getting prepared...especially if I lived in California.  After all the forest fires that region has had, any excessive rainfall is going to create some major mudslides, etc.  There has already been one that shut down a long stretch of major highway, and trapped dozens of people in their vehicles.  The models I've seen indicate that the entire West coast could have some real weather issues this Winter.


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## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

We know that we are in for a bad time in Australia.
Extreme droughts and bushfires are just around the corner for us.


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## imp (Oct 22, 2015)

Warrigal said:


> We know that we are in for a bad time in Australia.
> Extreme droughts and bushfires are just around the corner for us.



Aside from fighting fires, what is the status of fresh water availability in your country? Is it not largely arid? Obviously, higher elevations are blessed with precipitation which lower may not be, but OTOH, is total population not something like 1/20 of U.S.? 

People need fresh water two ways; for themselves, and to raise the food they eat, be it meat or other. Here fresh water use is something like 80% agricultural, 20% domestic and industrial. I pulled those numbers from memory, which lately exists about halfway down from my thinking matter, so may be off a bit.       imp


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## Warrigal (Oct 22, 2015)

Australia is an old continent. The once high mountain ranges have been mostly worn down to their stumps. The most fertile areas with reasonable water supply are around coastline. The inland is arid and at best marginal pastoral land. Many 'rivers' are dry for years on end and some flow underground all the time. Artesian and sub artesian water is very important in the outback.

El Nino affects rainfall in the fertile eastern coastal areas where most of our agriculture and pastoral industries are established. Every river worth damming has already been dammed. Out biggest river system - the Murray - Darling - gets well and truly drained as it flows from Queensland in the north to South Australia in the south for irrigation. By the time it reaches its outfall the water has picked up so much salt that it is unpalatable for drinking. Sometimes the flow is so weak it hardly makes it to the sea.

This is a typical scene in the Outback






I've been to Birdsville and Innamincka. Nothing much at either place.


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## chic (Oct 23, 2015)

I feel for people who live in areas prone to drought and have relatives in CA that I'll be concerned about. But, from a purely selfish perspective an El Nino winter will mean warmer, drier, weather for the Northeast US and after last year's record snowfall and record snow shoveling ( for me and everyone else ), I'm looking forward to a break from all that.
 Yes, I do believe El Nino is real. I've experienced it before.


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## Ralphy1 (Oct 23, 2015)

Bring it on!  I don't want another winter like the last one either...


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## Mike (Oct 23, 2015)

I have heard about El niño or La niña for years and years.

One is the usual name, El niño I think, it blows in one
direction all the time, then occassionally it changes, that
is when it is called La niña, this is supposed to be the bad
form of El niño.

La niña Brings bad weather Worldwide, though how that
can be I have no idea, but in the past when it was one of
the La niña years, the predictions from the weather men
always seemed to come true.

Today I don't think that they ever change the name from
El niño, so it is more difficult to know what to expect, other
than what the weather forecast people tell us.

There has been a very bad Typhoon that hit the Philippeans
last week and there is today according to out news a bad
Hurricane heading for Mexico, so I think that this must be
a La niña year.

Mike.


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## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2015)

As I understand it, el Nino brings water to the eastern Pacific and drought to the western side. La Nina is the reverse.
That is a generalisation but the last recent la Nina brought lots of rain and storms to most of Australia but the southern part of Western Australia missed out and was very dry. At the same time California was in drought but that is about to end soon as el Nino asserts its influence.


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## QuickSilver (Oct 23, 2015)

Personally... I'm thrilled this is an El Nino year since this will be the last winter I will be driving to work every morning. In past El Nino years the Midwest has had a warm and dry winter.. and THAT will be a blessing to me for sure.   No blizzards or below zero weather to struggle through..  hopefully


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## Ameriscot (Oct 23, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> Personally... I'm thrilled this is an El Nino year since this will be the last winter I will be driving to work every morning. In past El Nino years the Midwest has had a warm and dry winter.. and THAT will be a blessing to me for sure.   No blizzards or below zero weather to struggle through..  hopefully



How long till retirement, QS?  

I moved away from Michigan because of the winters.


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## QuickSilver (Oct 23, 2015)

Ameriscot said:


> How long till retirement, QS?
> 
> I moved away from Michigan because of the winters.




I'm retiring before the end of 2016.. I don't have a firm date yet... but anytime after Nov 1st.. which is when hubby turns 65 and gets Medicare and doesn't need me to carry his insurance any longer.


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## BobF (Oct 23, 2015)

Quicksilver, when retiring, be sure to check for those additional insurances that you may want.   General coverage to reduce the amounts you may have to pay beyond Medicare coverage, eyes, dental, etc.   Medicare leaves some margins to pay out of pocket and possibly some items just may not be covered.   For my wife's heart attack and four months of coverage for emergency call and ambulance, hospital, hospital type aftercare, home care, physical ed care, doctors, we paid pretty little out of pocket.   We do have extra health insurance to help with much of what Medicare does not include.


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## Ameriscot (Oct 23, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> I'm retiring before the end of 2016.. I don't have a firm date yet... but anytime after Nov 1st.. which is when hubby turns 65 and gets Medicare and doesn't need me to carry his insurance any longer.



My friend is retiring in June 2016 - she'll be 63.  She's got mixed feelings.  She doesn't like the idea of their income being less, and is wondering about having too much time on her hands.  But in a way she likes the idea of the freedom we have to take holidays when we want.


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## QuickSilver (Oct 23, 2015)

Ameriscot said:


> My friend is retiring in June 2016 - she'll be 63.  She's got mixed feelings.  She doesn't like the idea of their income being less, and is wondering about having too much time on her hands.  But in a way she likes the idea of the freedom we have to take holidays when we want.



I can understand that..  I really wasn't ready to retire before... I'm 66 and more ready now..  however I'm not going to totally leave the workforce.  I am going to work what they call "per diem"  or "casual"...  which means I can come in when they need me... IF I want to..  I'm thinking I'll give them a couple of days a week until they can replace me.. and after that, only to cover for vacations or sickness..   What's good about that is that I can accept or refuse..  I'm not obligated.. and the money will be useful..


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## Don M. (Oct 23, 2015)

I was watching the Weather Channel this morning, and they are saying that this Hurricane Patricia is the Strongest storm ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere....with sustained winds of 200MPH.  It is expected to hit Mexico later today, then track NE towards Texas.  Parts of Texas...the Dallas area...are already seeing major rainfalls in the past few days, so this coming week may give them another round of flooding rains.  I have a feeling that the next few months are going to be a time of some real weather extremes for many parts of the nation....and world.  If NOAA is correct, we may be lucky in the Midwest, and near normal....while all around the perimeter of the nation, people are contending with extremes...both in temperature and precipitation.


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## Ameriscot (Oct 23, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> I can understand that..  I really wasn't ready to retire before... I'm 66 and more ready now..  however I'm not going to totally leave the workforce.  I am going to work what they call "per diem"  or "casual"...  which means I can come in when they need me... IF I want to..  I'm thinking I'll give them a couple of days a week until they can replace me.. and after that, only to cover for vacations or sickness..   What's good about that is that I can accept or refuse..  I'm not obligated.. and the money will be useful..



We've got a friend who is a nurse and she retired at 60 but still works one day a week.  The friend who is retiring next year has a high powered job and I know she is really going to miss the power and being important.  

I had no problem at all retiring at 55.  I never did have a career or a job I really loved.  My husband had a career he loved so retiring was harder for him.


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## GeorgiaXplant (Oct 23, 2015)

Believe in? What? It's a fact. What's not to believe in? During the last major El Nino I lived in an area that depended heavily on skiers to support the local economy. We had very little sNOw and temps too warm to make sNOw; therefore, no skiers. A lot of people who worked the ski resorts had a particularly bad time of it.

That year, an aunt who took an Amtrak vacation to visit her brother in coastal central California was stranded there for weeks because of the flooding rains.

El Ninos used to appear on about a seven-year cycle. I don't know if that's still so. I do know that it affects a lot of people, places, crops in a lot of places all around the world.

Believe in? Yes. I *believe in* El Nino.


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## Davey Jones (Oct 23, 2015)

Funny 10 years ago nobody know what a El Nino was or who.
Mine was called "cripes, what lousy weather".


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## Mrs. Robinson (Oct 23, 2015)

Looking forward to it here in California-except,after the devastating Valley Fire my county just experienced,it`s very scary to think what is going to happen in terms of mudslides. Although this was named the "Valley Fire" it actually started in and much more affected the mountain areas. We drove through the area last week and were just stunned at the devastation. Entire neighborhoods gone. House after house after house that I used to inspect are nothing more than a pile of ash now. Anyway,yes,heavy rains are going to be devastating to the area-other than the fact that there are few homes left there now. The other night there was a big meeting regarding tree removal-residents,or for the most part,now "land owners",are upset about the number of damaged trees that the utility companies are now removing. Apparently many,many trees that look to be fine are actually damaged internally and pose a danger of falling. Then,many pines are infested with beetles,because of the drought,and are dying as well. I was stunned to hear the number of trees that were lost to this fire. Are you ready for this? 7 MILLION!! Hard to comprehend.


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## Don M. (Oct 23, 2015)

[I was stunned to hear the number of trees that were lost to this fire. Are you ready for this? 7 MILLION!! Hard to comprehend.[/QUOTE]

With all the fires this past year, I'm sure the number of lost trees is in the 10's of millions.  The pine shrubs and trees that cover the mountain areas are just like cans of gasoline, waiting for any spark to ignite them.  Couple that with all the dry weather in the West, and the die is cast.  Now, the concern will shift to the potential for excess rains, with this El Nino, and the floods and mudslides that may well accompany such a weather pattern.  It seems that the extremes are becoming more the norm as time passes, and the climate continues to change and warm.


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## Warrigal (Oct 23, 2015)

I don't understand why people can't make the link between the extremes in weather events and the concept of global warming.

El Nino, which is just another name for one part of the Southern Oscillation Index that has been observed in the Pacific Ocean for decades now, is not caused by global warming but it is becoming more extreme in it effects and that is because the ocean is warmer now.

Queensland is experiencing a prolonged drought now that is probably caused by global warming even though we have been in a neutral period of the SOI. When the El Nino phase kicks in fully the drought will be worse, not better.

If governments continue to drag their heels about reducing carbon emissions then people whose livelihood depends on rain will need to take seriously the biblical lesson of the Pharoah's dream about the seven lean cattle eating the seven fat cattle and use the good years to buttress against the bad one. They will need to enter the el Nino phase debt free and with money in the bank. Lots of it.


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## Jackie22 (Oct 23, 2015)

Warrigal said:


> I don't understand why people can't make the link between the extremes in weather events and the concept of global warming.



I don't understand it either....same with the hurricane offshore of Mexico, worst on record.


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## imp (Oct 23, 2015)

*"I don't understand why people can't make the link between the extremes in weather events and the concept of global warming."


*​Exactly my thought when starting the thread, but chose purposely to allow it to (hopefully) "seep out" during the conversation.   imp


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## imp (Oct 23, 2015)

*"They will need to enter the el Nino phase debt free and with money in the bank. Lots of it."

*Warri, those here in the States lacking money in the bank, need not worry. The government will subsidize their existence adequately.    imp


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## The Inspector (Oct 26, 2015)

chic said:


> I feel for people who live in areas prone to drought and have relatives in CA that I'll be concerned about. But, from a purely selfish perspective an El Nino winter will mean warmer, drier, weather for the Northeast US and after last year's record snowfall and record snow shoveling ( for me and everyone else ), I'm looking forward to a break from all that.
> Yes, I do believe El Nino is real. I've experienced it before.



Not sure about the drier. Warmer icier in Boston, hope ski slops get snow.


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## Don M. (Oct 27, 2015)

The Inspector said:


> Not sure about the drier. Warmer icier in Boston, hope ski slops get snow.



NOAA has a lot of good info about this El Nino.....search on NOAA El Nino....they have predictions for most of the nation for this upcoming Winter, etc.  

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-outlook-strong-possible-may2015

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/storie...s-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html


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## QuickSilver (Oct 27, 2015)

Sure makes me happy... Dry and warm in Chicago for my last winter of commuting!!   I couldn't be more pleased.


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## imp (Oct 27, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> Sure makes me happy... Dry and warm in Chicago for my last winter of commuting!!   I couldn't be more pleased.



Good feeling, no doubt! Drive or ride the "El"?  imp


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## QuickSilver (Oct 27, 2015)

imp said:


> Good feeling, no doubt! Drive or ride the "El"?  imp



Unfortunately I have to drive as I work out in the western burbs...  No public transportation available..


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## imp (Oct 27, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> Unfortunately I have to drive as I work out in the western burbs...  No public transportation available..



Those burbs have grown immensely since I left the area. Each Sunday morning, my Dad drove me from Berwyn out to Lombard, straight out Cermak Rd., to me Grandparents house; they had 8 acres there, east of Highland Rd., about 18th. St., between Cermak and Roosevelt, later when they were dead, their place butted up against Yorktown Mall! 

Gettin' off thread, sorry. Reminiscin' like an old fool.   imp


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## QuickSilver (Oct 27, 2015)

I know exactly where you are talking about..  My Uncle lived on Lloyd West of Highland.  That area is completely developed now..  No farms.


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## tnthomas (Oct 27, 2015)

> Should We Believe in El Nino?




I don't see the predicted El Nino as something one would "believe in",meteorologists are forecasting an el nino trend for this coming winter.   So, if it happens we'll get lotsa water(and mud), but if it doesn't happen we'll just have another wrong weather forecast.   It isn't religion, just science.


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## Warrigal (Oct 27, 2015)

Exactly. The word believe doesn't apply to science at all.

People who say that they believe in evolution set my teeth on edge.


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## imp (Oct 27, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> I know exactly where you are talking about..  My Uncle lived on Lloyd West of Highland.  That area is completely developed now..  No farms.



Jeez, QS! My old friend Charlie, from Morton High School, has kept in touch all these years, his lady friend of 20 or so lives on Lloyd!  2 S 601 Lloyd! Small world? You bet!    imp


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## QuickSilver (Oct 28, 2015)

My uncle lived at 2 S 285 Lloyd


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## imp (Oct 28, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> My uncle lived at 2 S 285 Lloyd



Couple of blocks away, then! Amazing! I just knew some common glue kept you and I sparring this long......imp


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## GeorgiaXplant (Oct 29, 2015)

Davey Jones said:


> Funny 10 years ago nobody know what a El Nino was or who.
> Mine was called "cripes, what lousy weather".



Um...maybe you didn't live where El Nino made much difference? I sure did, and we sure did know what El Nino was as far back as I can remember paying any attention to the weather. A heckuva lot longer than just 10 years go!


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## QuickSilver (Oct 29, 2015)

imp said:


> Couple of blocks away, then! Amazing! I just knew some common glue kept you and I sparring this long......imp



Chicago folk like to argue... lol!!


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## tnthomas (Oct 30, 2015)

GeorgiaXplant said:


> El Nino was as far back as I can remember paying any attention to the weather. A heckuva lot longer than just 10 years go!



I first started paying attention to 'things' in life in the early '70s; I remember hearing about El Ninos back then.


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## Warrigal (Oct 30, 2015)

Because of the drought implications, farmers and the weather bureaux in Australia have been tracking the Southern Oscillation Index for decades. The terms el Nino and la Nina have become commonly understood by the public as the extremes of the index.


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## imp (Oct 30, 2015)

QuickSilver said:


> Chicago folk like to argue... lol!!



(I gotta be careful here): Certain of them you didn't mess with. It was purported the Puerto Ricans carried straight-edged razors!

Hey, do you remember the Italian stores along Taylor St.?  Chiarugi Hardware sold all the stuff needed to make wine: crushers, presses, new oak barrels. We bought a couple of small ones.  The old days!    imp


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